Wa She Wong Auction, Hong Kong Report

ianrussell

Just a quick auction report. I am at the Wa She Wong auction, presented by Ponterio and Associates in Hong Kong at the moment. The first 200 lots took four hours! Over 300 people packed the room, and floor bidders were the most active I've ever seen at any coin auction. Lots were bid from $100 to $27,500, $700 to $70,000 etc. Several lots in the six figures and almost every lot selling for multiples of the presale estimates. While the presale estimates were conservative, the realizations truly show the strength of the Chinese market at the moment, and that the Chinese market appreciates a great pedigree as much as we do in the U.S. (Wa She Wong was a well known dealer (and collector) who operated three coin and stamp shops in Hong Kong during the 1980s - he was putting together a complete collection of China, including all the rare patterns before passing away a decade ago). I'll write more when the auction finishes.

- Ian

bidask

wish I was there!

thanks for the updates!

that is a major sale

ianrussell

Lot 311, a rare Flying Dragon Szechuan pattern struck in copper just hammered for $400,000 (presale estimate was $10,000-15,000). The 200-strong crowd (and it's 1:00 a.m. now) erupted in applause, while other collectors congratulated the winning bidder.

Hussulo

There are some amazing and rare coins in that collection.

CollectorBob

Sure are!

ajaan

Do these auction houses put artificially low estimates just to make it sound like the market is 'hot'? or is it just incompetence? C'mon now, estimate $10,000-15,000 and sells for $400,000? get real.

Hussulo

I think the sometimes put a low estimate to attract the bids. With an estimate of $10,000-15,000 they might be expecting £25-$30,000. I think $400k is crazy but the economy in China is on a huge up and there are a lot of new millionaires and billionaires looking to spend there money. New World records have been broken on Chinese vases as well:

"A Chinese vase discovered during a house clearance sold for a world record-breaking £53.1 million... The 18th century Qianlong porcelain vase had been estimated to fetch between £800,000 and £1.2 million by Bainbridges, the provincial auction house handling the sale. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/artsales/8127919/Chinese-vase-sells-for-world-record-breaking-53.1-million-at-auction.html

jt88

The price is very unbelieveable. Great auction.

icsoccer

Bowers and Merena / Wa She Wong prices are STRONG! Leaps ahead on 'current pricing'.
Did anyone here make a successful bid?

I bid strong money (I thought) 2x high estimates on 3 lots and was high bidder on zippo!

Were most of the successful bidders from China?

This just makes me want to work harder getting more pieces for my collection

blu62vette

Looking forward to more reports!!

jt88

I think I got couple low grade coins. High graded coins price are running away.

Lancastercoin

I thought many of the prices were believable, and most of the lots under $20k were generally within Chinese messageboard "consensus estimate". There were definitely a few high flying jaw droppers though, but what do I know about the market for $500k coins. (nothing) I disagree that pedigree mattered at all, other than the fact that it implies that these coins are known to not be of recent manufacture, which is obviously a real problem these days. The Ponterios almost had to put these ridiculously low reserves on the coins, since they were given to the consignors probably a year ago. Most everyone in the US market is wondering when the crash is coming for prices of China material, and they were basically betting on whether or not it was going to happen while they were promoting the sale.

jt88

About one hour ago my count showed I won 7 coins now it only showed two coins which I bidded live this morning. It will be interested to see how the auction goes tonight.

spoon

Is there a PDF version of the printed catalog available? or is the only electronic version the store-style listings at the website?

jt88

I believe there are PDF files that you can download. Sorry, PDF file is for the realized price. I don't think you can download the catalog.

ianrussell

<< <i>Do these auction houses put artificially low estimates just to make it sound like the market is 'hot'? or is it just incompetence? C'mon now, estimate $10,000-15,000 and sells for $400,000? get real. >>



This coin in particular does not have any price history, and until more recently rare copper patterns sell for a fraction of silver dollar patterns. While yes, the estimate was conservative, I could also see people thinking an estimate of $100,000 was way too high pre-auction.

The second day of auction (non-Wa She Wong) also featured sprited bidding and continued to set records.

- Ian

pruebas

Ian, from what you could tell, in general, did the "big" coins go to a few whales or institutions, or were they spread out over a wider population of buyers? While I was not there to watch the action, the bidding seems like one or two whales in a bidding war for the better material.

I wonder if this may be like the Millennia collection, which coins have been selling for 20% less when they come back to market.

jt88

Yap, some of the coin price jumped from $400 to $2000 in a second when a high bider came in. Very interesting to watch the bidding action.

jt88

Anyone knows if this auction has any post auction sale for the one that did not sold?

ColinG

Prices for Chinese coins are crazy now. Basically, I think it's a bubble akin to the US real estate market in 2007 or internet stocks in 2000. Prices are up 500% and more from sales just 2 or 3 years ago. For example lot 132 a Fookien Ration dollar went for $11,50. In 2008 Champion Auctions sold two ex-Kann[!] coins in the same grade for about $2500 each. Lot 318 a Ju-I Military Ration dollar hammered at $25,875. Champion sold one about 3 years ago for around $2900 [which was pedigreed to a 1971 Christie's sale]. Michael Chou told me common Hupeh and Kiangnan dollars that would have sold for $30 two years ago are no going for $200!

Living in Taipei, I see many signs of Chinese money pushing up asset prices. Real estate in Taipei, Hong Kong, China and even Vancouver are reaching new highs. Taipei prices have doubled in the past 4-5 years. The Economist magazine has published several stories over the past year or so commenting on the ever rising prices of garlic, traditional Chinese medicines as well as the more traditional assets of gold and real estate.

I think the problem ultimately goes to China's booming economy and it's cheap currency. As US dollars flow into China to buy its exports the government must increase the total pile of foreign reserves it holds as it is loath to let the RMB rise which might wipe out much of China's export-led economy. Nevertheless, eventually something will have to break. I don't think Chinese coins currently make a good investment.

eaglesea

<< <i>. I don't think Chinese coins currently make a good investment. >>



ColinG, does your comment pertain to Gold and Platinum Pandas aswell?

bidask

<< <i>Prices for Chinese coins are crazy now. Basically, I think it's a bubble akin to the US real estate market in 2007 or internet stocks in 2000. Prices are up 500% and more from sales just 2 or 3 years ago. For example lot 132 a Fookien Ration dollar went for $11,50. In 2008 Champion Auctions sold two ex-Kann[!] coins in the same grade for about $2500 each. Lot 318 a Ju-I Military Ration dollar hammered at $25,875. Champion sold one about 3 years ago for around $2900 [which was pedigreed to a 1971 Christie's sale]. Michael Chou told me common Hupeh and Kiangnan dollars that would have sold for $30 two years ago are no going for $200!

Living in Taipei, I see many signs of Chinese money pushing up asset prices. Real estate in Taipei, Hong Kong, China and even Vancouver are reaching new highs. Taipei prices have doubled in the past 4-5 years. The Economist magazine has published several stories over the past year or so commenting on the ever rising prices of garlic, traditional Chinese medicines as well as the more traditional assets of gold and real estate.

I think the problem ultimately goes to China's booming economy and it's cheap currency. As US dollars flow into China to buy its exports the government must increase the total pile of foreign reserves it holds as it is loath to let the RMB rise which might wipe out much of China's export-led economy. Nevertheless, eventually something will have to break. I don't think Chinese coins currently make a good investment. >>

On an absolute basis do you have any sense of a growing number of chinese collectors or not?

Lancastercoin

<< <i>Prices for Chinese coins are crazy now. Basically, I think it's a bubble akin to the US real estate market in 2007 or internet stocks in 2000. Prices are up 500% and more from sales just 2 or 3 years ago. For example lot 132 a Fookien Ration dollar went for $11,50. In 2008 Champion Auctions sold two ex-Kann[!] coins in the same grade for about $2500 each. Lot 318 a Ju-I Military Ration dollar hammered at $25,875. Champion sold one about 3 years ago for around $2900 [which was pedigreed to a 1971 Christie's sale]. Michael Chou told me common Hupeh and Kiangnan dollars that would have sold for $30 two years ago are no going for $200!

Living in Taipei, I see many signs of Chinese money pushing up asset prices. Real estate in Taipei, Hong Kong, China and even Vancouver are reaching new highs. Taipei prices have doubled in the past 4-5 years. The Economist magazine has published several stories over the past year or so commenting on the ever rising prices of garlic, traditional Chinese medicines as well as the more traditional assets of gold and real estate.

I think the problem ultimately goes to China's booming economy and it's cheap currency. As US dollars flow into China to buy its exports the government must increase the total pile of foreign reserves it holds as it is loath to let the RMB rise which might wipe out much of China's export-led economy. Nevertheless, eventually something will have to break. I don't think Chinese coins currently make a good investment. >>



For rare (and rare-in-grade) Chinese coins the market is so wild that it's hard to predict where the prices will shake out in the end. However, for common dollars, circ, problem free, and unchopped, I feel very comfortable with portraits around $50 and dragons around $250 and don't feel it's bubbly at all. (The market is somewhat over these numbers right now.) For some scarcer modern issues I feel there's plenty of support, especially the smaller gold and silver zodiacs first series, 1998 tenth and half gold pandas, and <5000 mintage pieces smaller than 5oz size.

jt88

No one knows ehre is the top but if you compare with US coin price, I don't think the rare Chinese coins price are high. The price might correct in the coming months or years but the trend is up.

Lancastercoin

+1, the top is not close IMHO.

jt88

I knew some one just bought a Chinese coin for 12K that was auction last year in HA for less than 5K.

jt88

Anyone receive his winning yet?

pruebas

I didn't win anything!

Does their website show your order as having been paid? Has your check cleared your bank? Do they indicate a shipment tracking number for your order on the website?

Sometimes you need to call Bowers & Merena to "kick start" the shipping process. I have had my check deposited and the lots not be marked for shipment unless I called. Maybe a kink in their system.

jt88

The money cleared my bank but their site still showed waiting for payment. Looks like I might get it next year.

pruebas

That's the same glitch that happened to me. Give them a call on Monday and ask them to ship it.

robkool

I'm glad I still have all my Chinese silver & copper pieces...

ColinG

eaglesea - I don't follow or collect Pandas so I can say nothing about them.

bidask - I assume the number of Chinese collectors is on the increase. If 25 million Chinese join the 'middle'class' [not really comparable with the US idea of middle class] more people will have money to spend on hobbies such as coins. So, it's entirely logical that prices should be trending upwards. But NOT a 300 - 400% jump in two years.

Lancastercoin - Perhaps you are right and there's no bubble in common dragon dollars and Fat Man dollars, etc. but prices, in my view, have gone up too far too fast. I was at the dealers here in Taipei a few days ago and they said be very careful buying now. Prices for Yuan Shih-kai dollars [Fat Man] year 3, one of the most common coins of the 20th century have doubled this year. The whole episode reminds me of what David Bowers wrote about the bubble in US coins in the early 1980s in his book The Expert's Guide. Prices reached unsustainable levels largely due to the higher inflation expectations of the times as well as the increased interest as an inflation hedge from Wall Street investors. The inflation didn't last neither did the interest from Wall Street. The market headed south a few years later.

folderholder

<< <i>Prices for Chinese coins are crazy now. Basically, I think it's a bubble akin to the US real estate market in 2007 or internet stocks in 2000. Prices are up 500% and more from sales just 2 or 3 years ago. For example lot 132 a Fookien Ration dollar went for $11,50. In 2008 Champion Auctions sold two ex-Kann[!] coins in the same grade for about $2500 each. Lot 318 a Ju-I Military Ration dollar hammered at $25,875. Champion sold one about 3 years ago for around $2900 [which was pedigreed to a 1971 Christie's sale]. Michael Chou told me common Hupeh and Kiangnan dollars that would have sold for $30 two years ago are no going for $200!

Living in Taipei, I see many signs of Chinese money pushing up asset prices. Real estate in Taipei, Hong Kong, China and even Vancouver are reaching new highs. Taipei prices have doubled in the past 4-5 years. The Economist magazine has published several stories over the past year or so commenting on the ever rising prices of garlic, traditional Chinese medicines as well as the more traditional assets of gold and real estate.

I think the problem ultimately goes to China's booming economy and it's cheap currency. As US dollars flow into China to buy its exports the government must increase the total pile of foreign reserves it holds as it is loath to let the RMB rise which might wipe out much of China's export-led economy. Nevertheless, eventually something will have to break. I don't think Chinese coins currently make a good investment. >>



A prominent coin dealer said much the same to me last April, said he was selling out. He was way too early, if he was right at all. The assumption seems to be that China's economy must soon weaken and Chinese coins will roll back down the same hill they came up. Maybe so, but I think it's foolish to assume the worst. Once upon a time, when I was a lad, you could buy choice Morgan Dollars for a couple of bucks. If the only consideration was price, then $25 a coin was bubble level. Beyond price, collectors need to consider the bigger picture. There has been an enormous buildup of private wealth in China (there are hundreds of thousands of millionaires), coin collecting is just taking off and there are probably hundreds of modern coins with populations under 2,500. What's the right price for one of these if 10,000 collectors decide they need it?

There will always be run ups and corrections, but how easy is it to replace a rare coin once it is sold? Right now, you probably can't without paying a king's ransom. That might well be what the latest price spike is telling us — the era of plentiful Chinese rarities is ending.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

jt88

Let's come back to the price topic couple weeks later. It will be very interesting to see how the CNG auction goes. Many rare chinese coins will be in that auction. I bet some of the coins price will break record again like the Copper coin that sold for 400K in this WA She Wong auction.

IloiloKano

So tel me. Wa she wong, or wa she not?

pruebas

<< <i>So tel me. Wa she wong, or wa she not? >>

'Kano, lets put it this way. Mr. Wong's heirs are definitely not complaining. And the new owners of the coins are probably not complaining either.

MrOrganic

<< <i>Let's come back to the price topic couple weeks later. It will be very interesting to see how the CNG auction goes. Many rare chinese coins will be in that auction. I bet some of the coins price will break record again like the Copper coin that sold for 400K in this WA She Wong auction. >>




CNG auction??

jt88

CNG auction

MrOrganic

<< <i>CNG auction >>




Thanx!

coinkat

As much as it pains me to write this I will...

Its better to remain silent and thought of as a fool instead of speaking and removing all doubt

folderholder

<< <i>As much as it pains me to write this I will...

Its better to remain silent and thought of as a fool instead of speaking and removing all doubt >>



That would make for a dull discussion, wouldn't it?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
Pandacollector.com

CIVITAS

The Ponterio/Bowers sale has a very unusual piece in it as well:

http://www.bowersandmerena.com/auctions/AuctionLot.aspx?LotID=137641

The NY Auctions of Chinese material are going to be very interesting, that's for sure.

MrOrganic

<< <i>The Ponterio/Bowers sale has a very unusual piece in it as well:

http://www.bowersandmerena.com/auctions/AuctionLot.aspx?LotID=137641

The NY Auctions of Chinese material are going to be very interesting, that's for sure. >>



Lack of modern china material shows how high teh domestic demand is here! IMO

icsoccer

"The NY Auctions of Chinese material are going to be very interesting, that's for sure. "

To the Moon!

Wow I really like what I own...but what a dang tough time getting some more!!
I am on the trail of some though!!