2010 Hockey Puck prediction thread.
renman95
Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
Pucks go viral!
With this new info I think the 2010 bullion versions could run up several hundred dollars each. The Mint is looking at 33,000 of each of the first 5 designs. Not the 100,000 as first announced. 2011 and on the Mint could be make millions of pucks if the 1oz ASE's are of any guidance. That may be tough seeing how they are produced. Maybe several hundred thousand each may be more accurate.
Look at the $200 price tag for the 2006 W Reverse Proof ASE minted to 250,000. I know it's a one year type needed for some collectors' set but these NP Pucks will be popular due to its size and details. My guess is that if you can get these Pucks under $200 out of the gate you will be well rewarded.
They could hit $400 fast....like before Christmas 2010.
Early next year the 2010 collector "P" versions come out at 27,000 each. They may be priced over $200. They most likely will top the first year bullion version in value.
I am curious to see if the collector versions will have different surface treatments. The bullion coins already seem to have proof-like devices on them. I don't want the mint to just punch a "P" on them, fancy packaging and that's it.
r95
With this new info I think the 2010 bullion versions could run up several hundred dollars each. The Mint is looking at 33,000 of each of the first 5 designs. Not the 100,000 as first announced. 2011 and on the Mint could be make millions of pucks if the 1oz ASE's are of any guidance. That may be tough seeing how they are produced. Maybe several hundred thousand each may be more accurate.
Look at the $200 price tag for the 2006 W Reverse Proof ASE minted to 250,000. I know it's a one year type needed for some collectors' set but these NP Pucks will be popular due to its size and details. My guess is that if you can get these Pucks under $200 out of the gate you will be well rewarded.
They could hit $400 fast....like before Christmas 2010.
Early next year the 2010 collector "P" versions come out at 27,000 each. They may be priced over $200. They most likely will top the first year bullion version in value.
I am curious to see if the collector versions will have different surface treatments. The bullion coins already seem to have proof-like devices on them. I don't want the mint to just punch a "P" on them, fancy packaging and that's it.
r95
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<< <i>Because of the size, won't the slabbing fee on these be around $70-$75 per coin? >>
at least!
I remember the Lincoln C&C sets were so popular that the mint website crashed due to so many orders the first day.
Where should be online first thing Monday to try & purchase with my credit card?
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
Box of 20
Because these are not platinum or 1 oz. of gold, there will be many more participants due to the lower per/unit price point.
This will result in **gasp** rampant speculation. Now I like a good speculation as much as the next guy - but this is different, I think.
As I mentioned to a friend of mine, a certain amount of this is good, more is better and alot is simply divine. But we are going beyond that point with these. I think that more than a few folks will get burned on this one.
Of course, if you get in soon enough and back out before there is trouble - you will be golden.
Don't get me wrong, I still want in.
But this may be one of those times when buying straight Silver Eagles or 90% might be a whole lot smarter.
jmski's opinion - you heard it here first.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Because of the size, won't the slabbing fee on these be around $70-$75 per coin? >>
at least! >>
and that will not include the extra handling fee (per coin) for these monsters...j/k
Although I must say I am really excited about the oversized holders from PCGS. I collect large coins from Australia and looking forward to PCGS holders for them.
What I find funny is that it's at the US Coin Forum. Didn't we get sheit-canned over here because there was too much talk of bullion. All we got was "it's just bullion" on the subject of AGE, ASE and APE's.
I feel tempted to go over there and give them a piece of my PM-arse.
On ebay there are pre-sales of $299!?
<< <i>The pre-seller of them is also running a few .01 starting no reserve auctions...one of them is already over the $300 threshold with 6 days to go: Grand Canyon. I agree these may go sky-high with a moderate falloff within a few months. >>
Any idea what his original BIN price was? I agree with the hype theory. Once the newness of the bullion coins has worn off, maybe the prices will be a good indicator of whether or not the premium on the numismatic versions will be worth it when the mint puts them on sale directly to the public. This price on a pre-sale indicates a lot of speculation, with no room for error. The only guaranteed breakeven point at the current bid price is with silver over $60 an ounce. I figure the price will go higher. I would still like to purchase them all at some point.
<< <i>I wanted these before November. Now, if I get any of the first year ones they will be direct from the mint, or aftermarket when they realistically trade for closer to spot after the frenzy is over. >>
I would not "hold my breath" waiting for that to happen. With only approx 25,000 per issue produced, it's unlikely that they will ever trade near spot.
<< <i>
<< <i>I wanted these before November. Now, if I get any of the first year ones they will be direct from the mint, or aftermarket when they realistically trade for closer to spot after the frenzy is over. >>
I would not "hold my breath" waiting for that to happen. With only approx 25,000 per issue produced, it's unlikely that they will ever trade near spot. >>
I know I know, but there's a chance. I'm talking Aussie/Chinese prices/premiums realistically. I'd be comfortable with that, if not I'm not worried about this first batch....just fancier bullion to me.
<< <i>
<< <i>I wanted these before November. Now, if I get any of the first year ones they will be direct from the mint, or aftermarket when they realistically trade for closer to spot after the frenzy is over. >>
I would not "hold my breath" waiting for that to happen. With only approx 25,000 per issue produced, it's unlikely that they will ever trade near spot. >>
I second that. Way too many silver collectors out there. Remember the 2001 Buffalo? On face value if you look at the 2001 Buff mintage compared to other commems they should not be at $200. Or maybe some of the commems should be higher in price. Either way, the big question is will these be popular enough. Or is this program so big will collectors get frustrated and only collect their favorite parks.
I think they will be highly popular. So getting in early may be the key. The problem is how many will get the cut before you enter the frenzy. If you can't get all five look at some of the parks...like Yosemite or Grand Canyon....always popular.
Box of 20
Much of these will be sold slabbed... in doing so... the bullion dealers can make a few more bucks on these pucks...
Its half way down this page
Gainsville requires $2,009 min order.
Is it possible you are looking at the wire minimum?
The only reason I ask is that I've been emailing my 'agent' over at Gainesvillecoins about the pucks and he never mentioned it ( although I have had a 'relationship' with them/him for a few years so maybe he thought it wouldn't be a big deal ). No mention of pricing yet. I made it pretty clear that I was only looking at one... maybe two.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>renman95: "Gainsville requires $2,009 min order."
Is it possible you are looking at the wire minimum?
The only reason I ask is that I've been emailing my 'agent' over at Gainesvillecoins about the pucks and he never mentioned it ( although I have had a 'relationship' with them/him for a few years so maybe he thought it wouldn't be a big deal ). No mention of pricing yet. I made it pretty clear that I was only looking at one... maybe two. >>
My bad, my excuse is I was using my iPhone.
Apmex says they expect them to ship by Dec. 17th.
Anybody else doing this tonight?
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
<< <i>I just booked a pre-order through apmex for the set of 5... total was $1,419.
Apmex says they expect them to ship by Dec. 17th.
Anybody else doing this tonight? >>
It seems they got more info since I called them a few hours ago.
<< <i>Apemx OUCHY!!!!!!!
I said this already, but that is some expensive Kool aid.
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
TD
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I just booked a pre-order through apmex for the set of 5... total was $1,419.
Apmex says they expect them to ship by Dec. 17th.
Anybody else doing this tonight? >>
Yup ... ordered 2 sets ....
That said: the number of potential collectors can't be huge.
--Severian the Lame
<< <i>Its in the mint press release , says something about "warning" authorized not to price to high--------BigE >>
I don't see that in the press release, but I did find a link to this in one of the threads:
From goldandsilverblog.com:
"Premiums charged to authorized purchasers for the America the Beautiful
Silver Bullion Coins will be $9.75 per coin. This is a very reasonable
amount, but the premiums that are paid on the secondary market might be
another matter. At the primary distribution level, the US Mint has warned
authorized purchasers to set premiums at a level "competitive with those
charged for other bullion coins." I think the primary dealers will do
their best to follow this mandate, but at subsequent levels of dist-
ribution, market forces will take precedence and drive prices higher."
Can anybody report on what the Mint is telling the distributors?
A private mint reading the recent threads here and in the us coin forum will decide to make their own version... maybe even a limited half pounder for about the same price...
<< <i>Can anybody report on what the Mint is telling the distributors? >>
I think more important than what the mint is telling distributors is what distributors have agreed to in their contract with the mint. Distributors didn't decide on the number of pucks that would be made available, and it would be awfully easy for the mint to pass off blame to them for high prices if the mintage is low enough to result in demand in excess of supply.
<< <i>I prepared myself for a high premium, but my goodness! I think that I'll wait for the numismatic versions directly from the mint as I believe the price will be less than what APMEX is selling the bullion pieces for. The U.S. Mint will set a premium as well, but not a 90% over spot premium. >>
Did the mint announce that they will sell a collector version straight to the public or is this just speculation based on past practices of the mint?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Did the mint announce that they will sell a collector version straight to the public or is this just speculation based on past practices of the mint? >>
Quote from the Mint's Press Release in the OP's link:
<< <i>A numismatic version of the three-inch, five-ounce silver coins, also minted in .999 silver, will be available for purchase directly from the United States Mint during the first quarter of 2011. The maximum mintage for these collector versions is set at 135,000 units-27,000 units for each of the five 2010 coins. The United States Mint will strike all 2010-dated numismatic coins by the end of the year, as required by law. Additional information about the release date and pricing for the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Uncirculated Coins will be available at a future date. >>
<< <i>
<< <i>Did the mint announce that they will sell a collector version straight to the public or is this just speculation based on past practices of the mint? >>
Quote from the Mint's Press Release in the OP's link:
<< <i>A numismatic version of the three-inch, five-ounce silver coins, also minted in .999 silver, will be available for purchase directly from the United States Mint during the first quarter of 2011. The maximum mintage for these collector versions is set at 135,000 units-27,000 units for each of the five 2010 coins. The United States Mint will strike all 2010-dated numismatic coins by the end of the year, as required by law. Additional information about the release date and pricing for the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Uncirculated Coins will be available at a future date. >>
>>
Great! Good news for collectors! Unlike the coins coming through the distribution channels, these won't be already cherry picked for the high grade MS69/70's. Also, it's likely to be priced at a lower markup than the price gougers are currently charging.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i> Great! Good news for collectors! Unlike the coins coming through the distribution channels, these won't be already cherry picked for the high grade MS69/70's. Also, it's likely to be priced at a lower markup than the price gougers are currently charging. >>
If you believe that, well, I've got a bridge that's for sale in Brooklyn
<< <i>
<< <i> Great! Good news for collectors! Unlike the coins coming through the distribution channels, these won't be already cherry picked for the high grade MS69/70's. Also, it's likely to be priced at a lower markup than the price gougers are currently charging. >>
If you believe that, well, I've got a bridge that's for sale in Brooklyn
Do you really think the mint will sell these for twice of melt like APMEX?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Box of 20
135000 coins total, what are the chances that the mint would limit purchases to 1 COIN per household.
I have access to 3 accounts, guess I would need 2 more for a complete set.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> Great! Good news for collectors! Unlike the coins coming through the distribution channels, these won't be already cherry picked for the high grade MS69/70's. Also, it's likely to be priced at a lower markup than the price gougers are currently charging. >>
If you believe that, well, I've got a bridge that's for sale in Brooklyn
Do you really think the mint will sell these for twice of melt like APMEX? >>
I suspect that the pricing will not be as "bullion products", but similar parameters as proof or unc. commemorative items. On the other hand...who knows...silver may be up to $40 oz by the time the Mint decides to unload.
"Well here goes me trying to explain the 5 oz coin pricing.... First, there are 11 authorized purchasers Tulving is not one of them. All dealers that I know of only received 3,000 sets each. We have seen these sets trade wholesale for $1500 per set (hundreds of sets at a time) We decided to market 1,000 sets at $1395 to those who signed up for them through our market alert system. Those are the ones who received the email tonight. (first shot). We sold 80 sets in 20 minutes before the Email even went out. Now 5 hours into it we have sold about 400 sets. We wanted to give our customers first shot which we have done. I expect these sets will be one if the hottest items from the mint in years. We are selling them for $100 less per set than what they are trading for wholesale. ($100,000 discount) So while we are setting what we believe to be the market price, it is still below wholesale. I expect these sets to sellout very fast and be in high demand over the years to come."
Expect another price increase when those 1000 sets are sold.
BTW down to 305 sets available as of 11:15 AM EST
Yeah, nevermind what the law mandates.
I knew it would happen.