Experts calling local maxima tops in metals markets
Baley
Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
What about this talk of a 1300-1400 trading range for gold, 22-26 for silver, 1625-1700 for platinum, and 550-650 for palladium?
and then down after the elections to challenge support levels of 1100, 18, 1400, and 400?
followed by slow, grinding declines to 850, 10, 1000, and 250 as the recovery takes hold
and folks realize that the worst is over and the other asset bubbles are inflating again?
and then down after the elections to challenge support levels of 1100, 18, 1400, and 400?
followed by slow, grinding declines to 850, 10, 1000, and 250 as the recovery takes hold
and folks realize that the worst is over and the other asset bubbles are inflating again?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
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I have concluded this and am keeping my powder dry in anticipation of a buying opportunity. However, I know that if I am thinking along those lines then many others are and so I am wonder ingif the dip will be shallow and short.
and then down after the elections to challenge support levels of 1100, 18, 1400, and 400?
followed by slow, grinding declines to 850, 10, 1000, and 250 as the recovery takes hold
and folks realize that the worst is over and the other asset bubbles are inflating again?
I'd be surprised if this dip lasts very far into November as that will break a long term seasonal buying pattern that has held for many years...though the PMs crash of 2008 went from July through late November (no crash currently in site). As much as a bubble people think PM's are, nearly all of the Gold/$USD move since July was predicated on the dollar losing value. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro has been totally stagnant vs. gold and consolidating. Once the Euro/Gold consolidation completes, a very strong upmove should begin, with USD/Gold participating strongly as well. Gold will dip only as long as the dollar bounces. And that might not be very long. The dollar's annual cycle is due to bottom in Nov/Dec which implies it has a bit more downside. It's 3 yr bottom is due next spring. So far these dollar cycles have been fairly regular.
Note too that gold only just reached 17% above the 200 dma. It's now back to just 11%. In both previous peaks (2008 and 2009) it reached 29-32% above 200 dma. The 17% rise would be much more in line with an intermediate trend consolidation indicating more upside to come fairly soon. That intermediate rise would be more consistent with the May 2010 and October 2009 intermediate peaks (16%/13%).
I don't see gold headed down below $1260 during a dollar depreciating period that should generally last until next May/June. How there can be a recovery in fiat currency that would push gold down $1100, let alone $850 again? That would mean we go back to April 2009 and all the problems with banks, derivatives, currencies, and mortagages for the past 2 years will just have been a bad dream....in other words its all been fixed.
roadrunner
2. The credit crisis in America is for real. It is not a mirage. I predict that Bank of America and/or Citigroup will take major stock hits
over the next few years.
3. Inflation can not be contained forever. That will rear its ugly head within the next five years.
We are on a path that can not be reversed no matter what is done in Washington. We can't fix this thing in 10 years or
even 20 years. It's a no win economic scenario. The gold price will be very stable over that time period.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
have to be resolved but they must be addressed. Not only do we need some sort of han-
dle on reducing new debt but also some action on the old debt. The only possible resolution
to old debt is inflation. This is far from 100% effective for handling the problem; 10% inflation
does not mean a 10% reduction in the problem because inflation itself introduces inefficiencies
and is inflationary.
Patching the economy up like a frankenstein's monster and trotting it out might not even be
possible. In a planned economy it might feel like you can fool mother nature but you can't.
We'll have the inflation because there's no alternative and then the metals (gold) will start
an ascent. Let's just hope that we make the tough choices so this isn't dragged out forever.
I'm not pessimistic. There can be technological breakthroughs that greatly mitigate our
problems and there's lots of room for higher productivity just in reducing waste. We could
have boom times again in two years with luck and they could be sustainable if we fix the
schools. The question is will we have any luck or any courage in politics.
Wouldn't it make much more sense for them to actually come out and tell the American Public what it is that they are trying to do in order to help get the economy working?
And yet, they continue to wonder why business isn't hiring and why investors aren't investing. People are tired of it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I predict that Bank of America and/or Citigroup will take major stock hits >>
Mmm...C .. it's unlikely for Citigroup to take a 'Major Stock hit" since it's only selling for little over $4 a share. You're little bid late in your assessment for that stock...it dropped from the mid 40's to about $1.60 in the last 3 years.
"My personal opinion is that the guy who can pick the right moment to double short 20 year bonds with the ETF TBT is going to make a truck load of money. I'm doing all the research I can to see to it that I am there at that right moment."
I'm with you with that scenario...bonds have only one way to go & that's up in rates.
"The thing is... There is NOT going to be any recovery."
That would be a first in our history...I'm not ready to believe that, because I've heard that before & it was always a premature prediction.
problems and there's lots of room for higher productivity just in reducing waste."
We are seeing that now in the workplace, in spades. Folk are very lean and very mean in terms of extracting much more out of employees. Now, you don't have to just know a skill, you have to have a skill set. That set will include Word, Excell, Powerpoint, and likely some specialty software like autocad, photoshop, peachtree etc. and you need to be good at all your required skill set.
A story last week that was being carried was about the people that have been laid off over the last two years not being able to re-enter the workplace because they were not up to speed anymore. One of the examples cited was about a machinist that had been laid off and was reapplying for his old job after work picked up at the shop. Unfortunately, he was no longer qualified. He was a machinist all right and he had plenty of experience but rather than just set the stock to be milled and do the milling, he no longer had to hand mill the plug. Now was required to program the computer that ran the milling for that piece as the factory had retooled...he was no longer qualified.
For every good job, there are multiple applicants that want to replace a lazy or a weak skill set worker. People aren't taking much sick time any more and vacations are when folk want to jump your spot so people are loath to take vacations. And, in an odd twist, paper products are being limited...no plethora of paper towels in the staff break room, now there are air hand dryers in the restroom, no more large offerings of paper products for workers...bring your own. I would say that higher productivity and minimal waste are cooked into the workplace formula of today and now we just have to wait for it to take hold; faster, better, cheaper.
<< <i>"There can be technological breakthroughs that greatly mitigate our
problems and there's lots of room for higher productivity just in reducing waste."
We are seeing that now in the workplace, in spades. Folk are very lean and very mean in terms of extracting much more out of employees. Now, you don't have to just know a skill, you have to have a skill set. That set will include Word, Excell, Powerpoint, and likely some specialty software like autocad, photoshop, peachtree etc. and you need to be good at all your required skill set.
A story last week that was being carried was about the people that have been laid off over the last two years not being able to re-enter the workplace because they were not up to speed anymore. One of the examples cited was about a machinist that had been laid off and was reapplying for his old job after work picked up at the shop. Unfortunately, he was no longer qualified. He was a machinist all right and he had plenty of experience but rather than just set the stock to be milled and do the milling, he no longer had to hand mill the plug. Now was required to program the computer that ran the milling for that piece as the factory had retooled...he was no longer qualified.
For every good job, there are multiple applicants that want to replace a lazy or a weak skill set worker. People aren't taking much sick time any more and vacations are when folk want to jump your spot so people are loath to take vacations. And, in an odd twist, paper products are being limited...no plethora of paper towels in the staff break room, now there are air hand dryers in the restroom, no more large offerings of paper products for workers...bring your own. I would say that higher productivity and minimal waste are cooked into the workplace formula of today and now we just have to wait for it to take hold; faster, better, cheaper. >>
Interesting. Thanks for the info.
I seriously doubt that basic industry has done anything at all to reduce waste
or become more efficient in the last several years. These things are juggernauts
that just consume and and waste. Anytime it becomes time to cut back they
won't touch the waste which they consider sacrosanct, they lay off people.
Thisn doesn't apply to all industry. Automotive have really become lean and
mean in the last thirty years. They even keep their plants clean now days.
any comments on the metals being range bound for now? we'll see how these predictions play out...
difficult to be bullish on any asset class that has had a 10 year run up ;-)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Come January, when new congress sits down... down... down...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
It is usually a good time to lighten up a bit, take a deep
breath and relax, until the roller coaster car comes to a
complete stop.
Camelot
Its a mighty good time to hold tight to your purse
Things go up and things go down, but eventually
Everything usually comes completely around.
If things look bad, don't get mad, for things will turn
and instead of snapping go in for a little napping, as all
will soon be right as rain.
Gold and silver are note investment vehicles for the working man.
They are insurance policies for the worst that could possibly be.
Camelot