Is the mania setting in?

yellowkid

My take on gold for a couple of years is that at some point the man on the street ( I hate "Joe six pack") will decide that gold is the place to be and when he does, watch out. Is the mania here? Or is it getting close?

jmski52

I suspect that mania is still aways off. Furthermore, I agree with Jim Sinclair in that I don't think that there will be much of a spike or a blowoff stage. I think we are in for a longterm devaluation/rolling train wreck in the dollar and in the real estate markets.

notwilight

I think what we are seeing now is a relatively minor short squeeze. It could get a lot worse if I have sorted the wheat from all the chaff I see written about silver. --Jerry

pf70collector

I don't think Joe cares much about gold these days especially if he is living from paycheck to paycheck. I doubt anyone in my company even bothers to buy gold except for maybe jewelry. When the dollar collapses, it will probably be too late for Joe to climb aboard.

pmcollectour

<< <i>I don't think Joe cares much about gold these days especially if he is living from paycheck to paycheck. I doubt anyone in my company even bothers to buy gold except for maybe jewelry. When the dollar collapses, it will probably be too late for Joe to climb aboard. >>

ksammut

<< <i>I don't think Joe cares much about gold these days especially if he is living from paycheck to paycheck. I doubt anyone in my company even bothers to buy gold except for maybe jewelry. When the dollar collapses, it will probably be too late for Joe to climb aboard. >>



My thoughts are similar to yours.

In the late 70s, everyone was talking about gold and silver (both the metal and stocks). A lot were purchasing and a good number were selling every gold and silver item they owned as the prices went up. Stagflation and then the recession was hurting a lot of people's pocketbooks so this was "easy" money.

Today, colleagues, friends, and family do not discuss it unless I bring it up. None are buying or selling. You go into every B&M and you will find a good number selling but mostly regulars who buy. Those regulars have a common thought and that is we are headed for an economic disaster. Many of those selling really need the money due to their own economic problems.

There will be ups and downs in prices but the long term trend is up. I am sure at some point there will be a mania mentality but by then it may be even more clear to those who fear the worst that their fears were on target. The price of gold and silver may be 2 or 3 times its present price by then.

Everyone on this board follows the markets closely, especially the PM markets. The average person is worried about keeping their job, paying bills, and keeping their heads above water and is not paying attention to the markets. When they start talking about buying gold and silver, then the mania will begin but even then, if we are in an economic disaster, it does not mean the bubble will burst. It may mean, they finally woke up to reality and want a tangible asset.

I trade the price movement of gold and silver with stock options but have a large core holding of physical metal, mutual funds, and individual stocks. I will hold on to this core position forever or until our government really tackles the debt problem.

DrBuster

<< <i>

<< <i>I don't think Joe cares much about gold these days especially if he is living from paycheck to paycheck. I doubt anyone in my company even bothers to buy gold except for maybe jewelry. When the dollar collapses, it will probably be too late for Joe to climb aboard. >>

>>



I tell a couple folks at work about gold/silver. They pay a little attention, then they forget, then I bring in a new shiny thing once in a while, then they ask how much, then they remember that the similar piece I brought in last year was waaaaayyy cheaper. They still don't buy, but a couple are in real estate and being smart/making plays, the rest are actual employees (I'm a contractor) and get 401k/bonus/pensions/paid days off so they really aren't concerned it seems.

yellowkid

<< <i>I don't think Joe cares much about gold these days especially if he is living from paycheck to paycheck. I doubt anyone in my company even bothers to buy gold except for maybe jewelry. When the dollar collapses, it will probably be too late for Joe to climb aboard. >>



While there are certainly plenty of people living payday to payday, there are huge segments of the population who have not been touched by the current economic malaise, these are the people I feel are candidates for mania buying. Many of my friends are professionals and except for their 401k's it is business as usual. Medical, legal, government, if you make your living there you probably aren't hurting. Although one dentist friend says his business is off, but he does a lot of cosmetic type procedures.
As suggested, we are perhaps just heading for a correction, but I feel that it could be more than that. My wife has asked me twice in the last week about buying gold, I have heard of people using their credit cards to buy, and at an antiques show last weekend I heard the "g" word from several people.
Don't get me wrong, I prefer the slow steady climb, but I don't know that it will go that route.

jmski52

Even if it's business as usual for most folks financially, there is a huge chasm that separates the way that people are conditioned by the financial media to think - from the way that people must adjust their ways of thinking in order to invest in silver and gold. It's largely about perception.

To wit:

1) precious metals do not pay interest

2) precious metals require storage fees

3) precious metals are in a bubble and vulnerable to precipitous declines

4) precious metals do not add to economic output

5) precious metals are not FDIC or SIPC insured and are not "backed by the government"

6) precious metals cannot be eaten

7) precious metals can't be used to pay your mortgage or to buy anything with

8) precious metals should be added to a portfolio at no more than 5% or 10% maximum, in order to "hedge against inflation"

9) precious metals are risky investments

10) precious metals are not used to back any currencies

Have I left anything out?

jmski52

The mania starts when the illusions are dashed to shreds for Joe.

Leonidas

Hello

My name is Joe 6 pack. I live from paycheck to paycheck. It's not much, but it pays the bills. This is what this Joe 6 pack has saved in 3 months.......

mrearlygold

No

mkman123

leonidas, nice stash, however you must be an abnormal Joe sixpack as most avg Joe's cannot even get that much in 3 months.

Yellowkid is somewhat right however I must say that there are stories of chiropractors and lawyers who are unemployed and have lost their home and living with family members. I would say there is a certain segment that has not been affected as much but the majority of the population has to some extent.

roadrunner

I like this list jmski52

There are some high end ice cream sundaes that use gold leaf as a topping.....so indeed, gold can be eaten. I've yet to see one of these $1,000 type sundaes topped with shredded FRN's or crude oil syrup.

roadrunner

RedTiger

I haven't seen much in the way of mania. Maybe eight months ago, two new guys showed up at my local coin club meeting asking where to buy gold coins. I don't know if they actually went to buy their gold or not.

This forum is worth watching. It isn't fool proof by any means, but when prices are moving up and multiple newbies show up asking about where to buy, and what to buy, and how much to buy, and then actually buy, that can be the sign of an intermediate term top. Sometimes the new folks migrate over from the U. S. coin forum. When long time forum members, long time gold proponents, talk about selling core physical positions, or predict a top, or actually go short via futures or options, that means there is usually more room to run. Again, not fool proof, and I'm sure there are multiple exceptions, but it is anecdotal evidence of what I have observed over the years.

meluaufeet

<< <i>so indeed, gold can be eaten >>








10 Ways People Eat Gold (Business Pundit)

Justacommeman

Fiat currency is a bubble, not gold.

Government printing presses are a bubble, not gold.

The price of gold is only a direct reflection in the fiat expansion pond.

Fix the two problems above and gold will come down.

Hardly any individuals own gold or even know how to go about buying it

MJ

jmski52

Leonidas/Joe, I'm not sure whether I know any other Joe6Ps who would even know what a PR-70 DCAM Buchanan and an MS-70 Buchanan are.

Nice accumulation for 3 short months.

TomB

Around here I have seen no mania. In the lab that I had I would sometimes go over the possible benefits of diversification and the role that precious metals might play in such a plan. Only one person out of the five that I worked with ever purchased any precious metals after that and he has done quite well with the gold that he bought. Locally, I have discussed this issue in depth and repeatedly with four bank officers, three postal clerks, my neighbors and a few folks I know around town in the last five years and none of these folks has ever purchased any precious metals.

CaptHenway

We have sold 22 ounces of platinum already before the doors opened, and am getting calls from other people wanting to buy this tiny dip.
TD

mrearlygold

I had a line outside my shop back in 79/80.


This isn't a mania and far from it. This is concerned people starting to wake up and realize that the debt is not only unsustainable, it's crushing this country. Thanks to it's supporters, we're doing very well here, thank you very much. But it's far FAR from any mania.

Ask me in a year or two or three.

jmski52

BUY-BUY-BUY! no, wait - SELL, SELL, SELL!

Are we there yet?

pf70collector

My cousin asked me in 07 what was a good coin to buy from the mint. I told him the Jefferson Liberty Spouse would be a winner. Well not quite a winner, but his investment of $400 for the coin is now worth $685 alone in bullion value. Numismatically speaking, the coin was a dud. But this is the reason the majority of my collection is in precious metals at least it will retain some of its bullion value if the coin sinks on the collector side.