Will Friday's, Oct. 8th jobs report push Gold to a new high????
Goldbully
Posts: 17,317 ✭✭✭✭✭
Unless the government skews the unemployment numbers to favor the current administration, I believe the report will be a disaster.
How long can they hide the actual numbers now that Gallup came out with a figure of 10.1%?
What say my fellow experts on this forum?.....Gold up tomorrow??????
How long can they hide the actual numbers now that Gallup came out with a figure of 10.1%?
What say my fellow experts on this forum?.....Gold up tomorrow??????
0
Comments
<< <i>Unless the government skews the unemployment numbers to favor the current administration, I believe the report will be a disaster.
How long can they hide the actual numbers now that Gallup came out with a figure of 10.1%?
What say my fellow experts on this forum?.....Gold up tomorrow??????
Don't know about tomorrow ... my crystal ball she b not woikin .... but I can tell you as of now Gold is down by $2.50 in overseas trading....
I'm betting on a Democrat favorable jobs report.
Talking heads only want you to hear what they want you to hear.
......tomorrow...up up up up .....but what do I know.
<< <i>I say another down day, worse than today...an possibly for awhile. I will not edit this and stand by it as it is my actual current position in the PM stock market. >>
So are you short right now?
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I'm guessing that the report will be bad. It was tipped of earlier in the week from the private sector. I'm guessing a lot of it is already baked into the price of gold regardless. Yes, there maybe an intial kneejerk tree rattling stop raking reaction...............My theory is that the Fed wants the number bad. If the number is good then QE2 may have to come off the table or be watered down as a good jobs report would be a sign of an improvement in the economy. Bennie and the Jets want QE2, QE3 and QE4 in the worst way and at all costs. JMHO. MJ >>
FED may want it to be bad but the WH and Congress want it to be good.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm guessing that the report will be bad. It was tipped of earlier in the week from the private sector. I'm guessing a lot of it is already baked into the price of gold regardless. Yes, there maybe an intial kneejerk tree rattling stop raking reaction...............My theory is that the Fed wants the number bad. If the number is good then QE2 may have to come off the table or be watered down as a good jobs report would be a sign of an improvement in the economy. Bennie and the Jets want QE2, QE3 and QE4 in the worst way and at all costs. JMHO. MJ >>
FED may want it to be bad but the WH and Congress want it to be good. >>
Maybe, but the Fed is much more powerful. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
So are you short right now?
<< <i>The jobs report will be the same as usual , The private sector added X amount of jobs and in spite of this, the unemployment rate will rise to 9.7-10%, The market will see this as good news , the DOW will soar early and then dive later , gold will dive and then recover , dollar will recover and then dive....wait! , that was last month.... or maybe next month ? Dont play the news if the news is fixed!!!The jobs report is the most fixed report ever and is always revised . >>
ah, that was good! MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The September unemployment rate is 10.1
They say there was a SHARP decline in the last two weeks of September and that WILL NOT be reported in the government report, which focuses on the FIRST TWO WEEKS.
Ridicuous!
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
08:30 ECONX Sep Average Hourly Work week 34.2 vs 34.2 Briefing.com consensus
08:30 ECONX Sep Nonfarm Private Payrolls +64K vs +74K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +93K from +67K -Update-
08:30 ECONX Sep Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.7% Briefing.com consensus
08:30 ECONX Sep Nonfarm Payrolls -95K vs -0K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -57K from -54K
08:30 ECONX Sep Hourly Earnings 0.0% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.3%
A glut of government layoffs drove nonfarm payrolls down 95,000 in September after payrolls fell by 57,000 in August. The Briefing.com consensus expected payrolls to remain unchanged.
In general, the overall report was rather benign. It has been known for some time that state and local governments were going to have to cut jobs in order to get their budgets in-line. The only unknown was the timing of the job cuts. That came to a head in September as state and local governments slashed 83,000 jobs in September, with 56,800 of those coming from the educational sector. Including removal of temporary census workers, total government payrolls declined 159,000.
Private payrolls increased for the ninth consecutive month, but only by 64,000 jobs. The consensus expected private payrolls to increase by 74,000. After looking at the details, the private payroll gains seem stable. Goods-producing payrolls declined by 22,000 in September as construction payrolls flipped to the downside after a surprising gain in August. We anticipate weak growth in goods-producing sectors for a few more months as the construction sector continues to slump and manufacturing growth remains slow after strong gains in the beginning of the year. Service-providing payrolls increased by 86,000. The health care and leisure and hospitality sectors saw continued improvement.
On a somewhat surprising note, the unemployment rate remained at 9.6% even though the number of employed workers increased by 141,000. The growth in job availability has still not played much of a role in encouraging previously discouraged workers to get back into the labor force. Once these workers finally start looking for jobs again, the unemployment rate should creep back up to 10.0%.
The only real disappointment came from the earnings data. After two months of solid growth, hourly earnings showed no growth in September. The consensus expected earnings to increase 0.2%. Further, average weekly hours also remained at the same level as August. When combined with the declines in payrolls, income seems likely to have contracted during the month. The lack of income growth will lower consumption expectations in September and possibly October. Moreover, it could potentially lower the chances of re-election for incumbent politicians in November.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>......tomorrow...up up up up .....but what do I know. >>
I like your crystal ball so far
If there was an icon that looked like I just got ran over by a Mack truck and left me bloody laying in the street and with 2 black eyes...I wouldve posted it. Im still actually not that bad being that I bought out far enough, but MAN where did this bounce come from???
Box of 20
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Trying to time this market has gotten much harder as of late. Had I still had my ZSL position from 2 weeks ago I'd be down 22%. Yikes! There's really nothing that says silver can't go right to $25 from here. Best logic one can apply is to buy the hard dips and big washouts. Unfortunately the last washout was months ago.
roadrunner
<< <i>Yes, I am short on SLV since Tuesday
If there was an icon that looked like I just got ran over by a Mack truck and left me bloody laying in the street and with 2 black eyes...I wouldve posted it. Im still actually not that bad being that I bought out far enough, but MAN where did this bounce come from??? >>
Please see the title of the thread.........
OMG...can you ever find it in your heart to forgive me?
<< <i>The jobs numbers were bad no matter how much lipstick you whip out. The Fed got exactly what they wanted. A mandate on QE2. Which equates to higher stock market today= higher gold today=lower dollar today......so far. The day is still young. MJ >>
Under Dog: "There's no need to fear! QEII is here!"
Yes, great news for PMs because this will send the USD down even harder in the long run. QEII should add one trillion USD to the money supply within 12 months. $1500 gold and $25 silver look like a lock in 2011. I just wonder what will happen with Pt?
<< <i>Whatever the report, the gold commercials will probably try to shake the tree a bit near the morning open to see what falls off. It seems on these reports the initial direction that gold moves is the opposite of where it will head in the hours that follow.
roadrunner >>
i agree but i also believe there will be a time when shaking the tree will yield nil and any news will only reinforce the true relative value of PM in this epic era we are entering.
it may be so strong that ANY Fed announcement will send gold up on afterburners.
sorry not to steal the OP's topic of job reports. i think they are as skewed as other reports that are massaged and manipulated to show either improvement or not as degrading as they really are.
Let me give the contrarian view. Fundamentally nothing has changed in the economy in the last six months that would justify any increased price for PMs.
I hear about the Fed. printing money. So what. They're doing it to hold off deflation. Credit and debt is being destroyed through writeoffs, defaults, and bankruptcies at an even faster rate. Foreign competition from the Chinese and others is fundamentally deflationary. With official unemployment near 10% (unofficial higher) I don't see much risk of inflation any time soon. Very few companies have any pricing power. Other than PMs and a few other commodities, I don't see any price increases anywhere in the economy. For the most part I see a lot of sales, falling prices, etc.
The PM rally is based on a misplaced fear of inflation wiping away the value of the dollar. Inflation will happen someday. But we're not remotely there yet and it may be many years. But in the meantime, PMs are pricing in something which is not happening and doesn't have much risk of happening anytime soon.
<< <i>Gold has increased over $200 (over 20%) in the last six months. Silver has gone from $16-ish in the same time to $23.... an even bigger percentage increase.
Let me give the contrarian view. Fundamentally nothing has changed in the economy in the last six months that would justify any increased price for PMs.
I hear about the Fed. printing money. So what. They're doing it to hold off deflation. Credit and debt is being destroyed through writeoffs, defaults, and bankruptcies at an even faster rate. Foreign competition from the Chinese and others is fundamentally deflationary. With official unemployment near 10% (unofficial higher) I don't see much risk of inflation any time soon. Very few companies have any pricing power. Other than PMs and a few other commodities, I don't see any price increases anywhere in the economy. For the most part I see a lot of sales, falling prices, etc.
The PM rally is based on a misplaced fear of inflation wiping away the value of the dollar. Inflation will happen someday. But we're not remotely there yet and it may be many years. But in the meantime, PMs are pricing in something which is not happening and doesn't have much risk of happening anytime soon. >>
Not fear. Lack of confidence. Two entirely different things. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Yes, I am short on SLV since Tuesday
If there was an icon that looked like I just got ran over by a Mack truck and left me bloody laying in the street and with 2 black eyes...I wouldve posted it. Im still actually not that bad being that I bought out far enough, but MAN where did this bounce come from??? >>
I feel for you, we all get stuck once in a while.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
I hear about the Fed. printing money. So what. They're doing it to hold off deflation. Credit and debt is being destroyed through writeoffs, defaults, and bankruptcies at an even faster rate. Foreign competition from the Chinese and others is fundamentally deflationary. With official unemployment near 10% (unofficial higher) I don't see much risk of inflation any time soon. Very few companies have any pricing power. Other than PMs and a few other commodities, I don't see any price increases anywhere in the economy. For the most part I see a lot of sales, falling prices, etc.
The PM rally is based on a misplaced fear of inflation wiping away the value of the dollar. Inflation will happen someday. But we're not remotely there yet and it may be many years. But in the meantime, PMs are pricing in something which is not happening and doesn't have much risk of happening anytime soon.
Whose to say fundamentals haven't changed? Are any of us here privvy to actual audited physical silver/gold stocks held on Comex, ETF's, and LBMA? Do we know if any of the banks are digging into deep storage gold or even yet to be mined gold to pay off their shorts? Things like this are not static. Nearly 10 years into a gold bull market and total annual world mining production still hasn't exceeded the 2001 high. If anything the cost to mine is only rising in price, hence metals have to respond. One day something will give and it will be the first time everyone hears about it. You can explain the debt and credit destruction any way you want, PM's seem to be oblivious to it. Does the gold in your pocket care if home equity is being wiped out? Nope, it only cares about how much remaining money/credit is chasing after it. To see price increases only look to about every traded commodity that shows up in the consumer's daily basket in one form or another over the past 6-12 months (oil, gas, copper, silver, wheat, soy, corn, oats, sugar, coffee, lumber, cotton, meats, etc.). I don't know about you, but the majority show up in my weekly to annual budget. That's more than a "few" commodities....but nearly every one. Maybe you don't see the price increases so readily as package size continues to shrink. Even the old half gallon of ice cream is getting harder to find as they have become 1.5 liters...a 21% reduction. Lots of sales on durable goods, clothing, new autos, computers, homes, etc. But no one is giving away food, heating oil, gas, electricity, professional auto repair services, health care premiums, and other things we use every day. If prices in these areas are all falling please let me know what state you're in so I can start making plans to move there. There's no misplaced fear on wiping out the value of the dollar, it's been happening quite systematically for the past 97 years. Monetary charts basically went parabolic in 1996 and haven't really eased up except for a brief period in 2009. The markets price in what is coming down the road, that's what they do. They don't price in long term fear. PM's are just doing what's been coming naturally for the past 10 years. If there's no reason behind it all for it then 10 yrs is a long time to be heading in the wrong direction. When the trend finally shifts to the "right" direction it will be quite apparent. But fiat currencies have always collapsed or been exchanged/devalued into nothingness, it's just of matter of when.
roadrunner
<< <i>Gold has increased over $200 (over 20%) in the last six months. Silver has gone from $16-ish in the same time to $23.... an even bigger percentage increase.
Let me give the contrarian view. Fundamentally nothing has changed in the economy in the last six months that would justify any increased price for PMs.
I hear about the Fed. printing money. So what. They're doing it to hold off deflation. Credit and debt is being destroyed through writeoffs, defaults, and bankruptcies at an even faster rate. Foreign competition from the Chinese and others is fundamentally deflationary. With official unemployment near 10% (unofficial higher) I don't see much risk of inflation any time soon. Very few companies have any pricing power. Other than PMs and a few other commodities, I don't see any price increases anywhere in the economy. For the most part I see a lot of sales, falling prices, etc.
The PM rally is based on a misplaced fear of inflation wiping away the value of the dollar. Inflation will happen someday. But we're not remotely there yet and it may be many years. But in the meantime, PMs are pricing in something which is not happening and doesn't have much risk of happening anytime soon. >>
I believe that debt has been too high to ever get repaid for many years now. We've now
reached a point that debt is balooning exponentially and there's no slack anywhere other
than waste which no one has the courage to attack. It's becoming increasingly obvious to
more and more people that the situation isa approaching the point that it's intractable. Gov-
ernments are tripping over each other to undermine their own currency to be better posi-
tioned in world trade.
Any attempt to reign in spending and cut deficits will highlight how terrible the debt situation
really is and cause a collapse of most major economies and most of the rest will follow. This
is politically unacceptable since it would mean mass starvation and probably widespread wars.
Governmments have no choice but to inflate the debts away. It won't be pretty and the win-
ners will be those who inflate the least rather than those who damage their currency the most.
Infl;ation will be extremely painful to nearly everyone but the factories will keep running and
the food will still be in the supermarkets. Many people will need a great deal of help because
they are on the short end of the inflationary stick or fixed incomes. There aren't going to be
any cheerleaders for the inflation once it getys roaring.
Of course in modern times it's entirely possible that this inflation will not occur quite like the
past. It can happen in fits and starts as the bond market crashes again and again. But the
fact is we can't live with these debts and they have to be paid by one means or another.
The Germans complained that it required a wheelbarrow of cash to buy the weeks groceries
but on the plus side they could pay off the mortgage with their change.
Let's be careful out there.
In my view, "this time is different" is not a smart investment philosophy... whether it reflects irrational exuberance like we had in the housing bubble/dot com, or irrational pessimism about the future of our economic system. Most likely, this time is NOT different.
<< <i>The PM rally is based on a misplaced fear of inflation wiping away the value of the dollar. >>
Not true at all IMHO. The USD is falling while U.S. debt continues to clime unabated and this drives PMs versus the USD.
Buyers driving PM prices are world-wide, they're not buying gold with Yen, Yuan or Pound-Sterling worrying about the USD.
If you believe that, then please explain to me what is going to fix the economic situation the world is in. I and millions of others will be awaiting your response.
<< <i>In the commentary about PMs there is a current of thought essentially saying "this time is different - the system is going to collapse."
In my view, "this time is different" is not a smart investment philosophy... whether it reflects irrational exuberance like we had in the housing bubble/dot com, or irrational pessimism about the future of our economic system. Most likely, this time is NOT different. >>
You can't fool mother nature and this has always been true. You can't only take
away and never put anything back. You can't run massive deficits indefinitely and
this goes a few times over when most of the trends are working against you.
It's not a matter of pessimism but realism.
This isn't to say the future is bleak merely that a reckoning must occur and every
indication is that the process is beginning. It might take years or it might come
blindingly fast but it must come. When it's over the dollar will not be as strong.
This will allow all those mired in debt to repay it but it will come at a high price.
Wealth will be destyroyed and inefficiency will sometimes be rewarded while hard
work might be punished.
The Hungarian economy was worth some 30 quadrillion pengos in 1947 but this
could be purchased for 25 dollars US. Even if you owned the whole kit and ka-
boodler through hard work you had nothing.
This is exactly the point; this time it isn't different. It's never different.
Things are changing indeed.
<< <i>The Washington Post Co. has revealed exactly how much cash that audio equipment magnate Sidney Harman paid for Newsweek magazine this summer: $1.
Things are changing indeed. >>
Don't forget that he assumed all the debts and liabilities of Newsweek which are quite substantial.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Biggest Fraud In The History Of Capital Markets
--You can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4.25%.
--Housing prices are falling in most areas.
--You can get great deals on cars, boats, etc.
--Unemployment is high and seems to be rising.
--Cheap imports from China and others continue to put a downward pressure on consumer prices
I love PMs... but none of that adds to the an inflation story. Rather than hyperinflation, we seem to be going through what happened to Japan the last 15 years after their housing bubble burst. History is repeating itself.
Commodity prices - weekly charts
One can look at the above futures charts and decide if there is inflation here or not. PM's don't always perform during inflation as many other factors are involved.
--You can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 4.25%.
--Housing prices are falling in most areas.
--You can get great deals on cars, boats, etc.
--Unemployment is high and seems to be rising.
--Cheap imports from China and others continue to put a downward pressure on consumer prices
Overpriced assets continue to fall (homes, cars, durbable goods, etc.). Relatively undervalued assets that saw little price appreciation from 1980-2002 such as commodities continue to rise. These cycles come and go. Interest rates have been hopelessly skewed (or screwed) by $213 TRILL in US bank otc interest rate swaps created over the past 20 yrs. This has caused massive malinvestment in things that should never have been....and a lack of investment in things that should have been. One major difference with the 1970's is that the FED doesn't have the mojo left to jack interest rates like they did from 1977 onward as gold, oil and commodities commenced their second move in that decade. In each of the years 1978, 1979, and 1980, the prime rate was bumped about 4-5% per year. Bumping those rates now would activate the $213 TRILL bomb in too-big-to-fail bank interest rate swaps. A prime rate of 21.5% in Dec. 1980 was the final nail in the coffin to kill commodities. So with a current 3.25% prime rate (and 0% FED funds) it doesn't seem that commodities have any natural predators in a growing world where prices were depressed for 2 decades. What's going to stop their price rise other than restoring backing/confidence to fiat currencies? What are the odds of that happening? If you're waiting for higher interest rates to tell you there is inflation in commodity prices, it might be a long wait. Don't count on China and Asia in general to continue to allow our inflation to be exported to them. That worked in the 1980's and 90's just fine. But as Asia continues to grow their industrial base expect them to continue to require a much higher percentage of their goods and services to stay home. And as this growth occurs, so do wages and cost of living which means cheaper exports for the US becoming a thing of the past, hence higher priced imports, especially if tariffs are added.
prime rate history
roadrunner
<< <i>This is a game changer:
Biggest Fraud In The History Of Capital Markets >>
<< <i>Instead we poured TARP money into a pit and meanwhile the banks are paying huge bonuses to some people who should be made accountable for fraud. >>
There's been a lot of stuff going on that appears to be out and out fraud. But everyone
seems to be in on it so nobody wants to complain. How can these enormous bonuses for
bankers be justified even in good times when they are doing well. Does anyone really be-
lieve any banker has ever made a decision that's worth a quarter billion a year. These guys
are pulling the country down into a hole with them and cleaning up on it.
As rates go up the otc interest rate swaps will likely cause income streams to the banks to become less and less, eventually becoming losses. And with each of our top 5 banks having over $30 TRILLION notional in them, these income streams must be substantial. Until some type of plan is made to somehow unwind them, I'm not sure how the banks will "allow" the FED to raise their lending rates. They apparently have control over the financial system as well as congress and apply leverage against the markets anytime their position is threatened. Rising rates would no doubt increase the likelihood of additional corporations, banks, municipalities, institutions, states, etc. going under. And with that someone is left holding an uncollectible winning lottery ticket against a bankrupt entity....unless the govt pays off on the ticket. I don't see any positive outcomes here. Volcker was able to see rates rise up to 21% back in 1980 because the banks didn't own the system back then. Today they do, especially with the leverage of $213 TRILL in IR swaps. It is different this time.
latest semi-annual otc derivative stats from the BLS
If you go to the BLS page that shows commodity derivatives, the non-gold category (ie mostly silver) shows an increase in the first half of 2008 from $103B notional to $190B. Basically the major reason how paper silver prices got so pulverized from July to October 2008.
roadrunner
<< <i>Unless the government skews the unemployment numbers to favor the current administration, I believe the report will be a disaster.
How long can they hide the actual numbers now that Gallup came out with a figure of 10.1%?
What say my fellow experts on this forum?.....Gold up tomorrow??????
Lookout Monday....Columbus Day!!!!!!