"government is not reason, it is not eloquence-it is a force! like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master; never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action." George Washington
I went to sell a large lot of Proof and Unc sets to my local B&M about 2 months ago, was expecting an offer around 30% behind bid, but was shocked when offered less than half of that! I did not sell.
The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, added to prejudices to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill, and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless, frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all its own, for the children and the children yet unborn, and the pity of it is, that these things cannot be confined to the Twilight Zone.
If there isn't anyone paying anywhere near Greysheet "bid" then where does that "bid" come from??? Seems like for something like proof/mint sets there isn't any reason that the Greysheet couldn't reflect actual and up to date dealer bid/ask prices.
I used to be somebody, now I'm just a coin collector. Recipient of the coveted "You Suck" award, April 2009 for cherrypicking a 1833 CBHD LM-5, and April 2022 for a 1835 LM-12, and again in Aug 2012 for picking off a 1952 FS-902.
<< <i>I went to sell a large lot of Proof and Unc sets to my local B&M about 2 months ago, was expecting an offer around 30% behind bid, but was shocked when offered less than half of that! I did not sell. >>
As you described it, the dealer offered less than 35% of bid (less than 1/2 of the 70% you had expected) - did he really offer that little?
Here's the problem with common proof sets right now. The group from 1968-1991 (with the obvious exception of 'no-S' sets/small dates/type 2 sets) are particularly common, high mintage sets that flat out don't sell well and languish in inventory. Anyone playing the PR70 plastic game has already cherrypicked most of the good stuff so many sets are the rejects...and even if it's a fresh deal, there's no money in cracking/slabbing the majority of those dates once you factor in expenses. Also, with the exception of the 1968-69-70 sets and the '76 3 piece set, none of these even have any precious metals content. In short, no one wants them. Thus the under $10 (and in many cases, under $5) bids on these. Dealers aren't looking to tie up cash flow in nowhere items. Mint sets from this timeframe are as bad or worse; with many dates you're better off cutting and spending them. I can just about guarantee you that no one's paying 5%-10% back of bid for anything in that timeframe unless they are totally out of that date and want it for stock- 20-30% back might even be optimistic. Frankly, we had a deal come in that was all 74-81 mint sets and I told the owner that I'd be at face value on everything except the 81 set... I suggested he give them as christmas gifts to some kids in the family.
<< <i>I can just about guarantee you that no one's paying 5%-10% back of bid for anything in that timeframe unless they are totally out of that date and want it for stock- 20-30% back might even be optimistic. >>
I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these????
<< <i>I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these???? >>
That's a good point.
I think it's entirely possible that the greysheet can be out-of-touch with many different series at any given time.
<< <i>I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these???? >>
Actually, the prices are supposed to be for dealer-to-dealer sales, so one would suppose that dealers buying from the public would necessarily need to pay less than greysheet prices. How much less? Just like when collectors decide to buy (or not) from a dealer, that's up to the dealer.
<< I can just about guarantee you that no one's paying 5%-10% back of bid for anything in that timeframe unless they are totally out of that date and want it for stock- 20-30% back might even be optimistic. >>
I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these????
The market for these has weakened for several months at a time. Way too many made and not nearly enough demand = lower prices. The market makers in these at the wholesale level have not had active buys for weeks now and even 30% back may be too high when everyone wants to sell and there is nowhere to go to move them and recycle the cash.
Greysheet does reflect the last "active bid" but if there are no current actual buyers purchasing the material then what is the price in reality?
Couple that with most shops getting 20-30 of these offered to them to buy versus retailing one set somewhere around bid or maybe a bit above bid and you see what goes on in modern mint made proof sets/mint sets, and most modern commems.
There are other prices in the GS that are the same in an opposite way. A very rare coin has had no sale for 4-5 years yet there is a GS price. There is no active dealer bid or offer out there, just the last recorded/reported price perhaps in an auction or a reported transaction. What makes a 5 year old number valid today?
The GS is a tool and in this market not a great one to determine levels of buying and selling. The industry refers to it or trends or auction results, but the best indicator available to most dealers is not a single reference but many references and knowledge of the current market as of today. GS is far from that one stop source, however.
Fifty, a hundred years from now, collectors will have a field day with all these proofs. They will wonder where the heck all the MS clads went to...and why they are so expensive compared to the GLUT of proofs that will still exist.
I cant think of any reason to buy a proof set except to give to my grandchildren as a birth year piece. Its not that they are not nice and shiny and cool in their own way..but, why hurry? No reason whatsoever to zip on down to the BM and get one, or to bid fast and furious with the auction sniper program roaring.....just too many of them for the demand. way too many.
When the telemarketers are shoving them down people's throats on TV, we can get a little more for them. Of late this has not been happening, and demand is very weak. TD
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
If you look at some of the late date sets, they have dropped 25% or more in the last 6-8 weeks.
Go to any local show and you can pick up all you want at "wholesale" bid. A few greedy dealers still trying to sell at ask +. Those are the ones tying up their money.
Comments
<< <i>5 to 10% back of bid seems kinda high. I think it is lower. >>
...almost issue price.
<< <i>I was at a St. Paul show last weekend. The high buyer in the room was paying 15% back. The other dealers were at 20% to 30% back. >>
15% back is a very good price. Usually it's lower.
More liek 15-20% back the quarter sets even less.
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
from what I hear, all the telemarketers are up to their eyeballs in backed up stock of proof sets.....
if there isnt anywhere to send them, prices drop dramatically
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
Recipient of the coveted "You Suck" award, April 2009 for cherrypicking a 1833 CBHD LM-5, and April 2022 for a 1835 LM-12, and again in Aug 2012 for picking off a 1952 FS-902.
<< <i>I went to sell a large lot of Proof and Unc sets to my local B&M about 2 months ago, was expecting an offer around 30% behind bid, but was shocked when offered less than half of that! I did not sell. >>
As you described it, the dealer offered less than 35% of bid (less than 1/2 of the 70% you had expected) - did he really offer that little?
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
<< <i>I can just about guarantee you that no one's paying 5%-10% back of bid for anything in that timeframe unless they are totally out of that date and want it for stock- 20-30% back might even be optimistic. >>
I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these????
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these???? >>
That's a good point.
I think it's entirely possible that the greysheet can be out-of-touch with many different series at any given time.
<< <i>I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these???? >>
Actually, the prices are supposed to be for dealer-to-dealer sales, so one would suppose that dealers buying from the public would necessarily need to pay less than greysheet prices. How much less? Just like when collectors decide to buy (or not) from a dealer, that's up to the dealer.
I'm not a dealer and only buy a Greysheet a couple of times a year, but according to the fine print on the Greysheet, their prices come from monitoring actual dealer offers to buy and sell and the prices listed are the highest legitimate Bids and the lowest legitmate Asks seen nationally. So does that mean there is at least one dealer out there legitmately paying the Bid price on these????
The market for these has weakened for several months at a time. Way too many made and not nearly enough demand = lower prices. The market makers in these at the wholesale level have not had active buys for weeks now and even 30% back may be too high when everyone wants to sell and there is nowhere to go to move them and recycle the cash.
Greysheet does reflect the last "active bid" but if there are no current actual buyers purchasing the material then what is the price in reality?
Couple that with most shops getting 20-30 of these offered to them to buy versus retailing one set somewhere around bid or maybe a bit above bid and you see what goes on in modern mint made proof sets/mint sets, and most modern commems.
There are other prices in the GS that are the same in an opposite way. A very rare coin has had no sale for 4-5 years yet there is a GS price. There is no active dealer bid or offer out there, just the last recorded/reported price perhaps in an auction or a reported transaction. What makes a 5 year old number valid today?
The GS is a tool and in this market not a great one to determine levels of buying and selling. The industry refers to it or trends or auction results, but the best indicator available to most dealers is not a single reference but many references and knowledge of the current market as of today. GS is far from that one stop source, however.
Website-Americana Rare Coin Inc
I cant think of any reason to buy a proof set except to give to my grandchildren as a birth year piece. Its not that they are not nice and shiny and cool in their own way..but, why hurry? No reason whatsoever to zip on down to the BM and get one, or to bid fast and furious with the auction sniper program roaring.....just too many of them for the demand. way too many.
TD
Go to any local show and you can pick up all you want at "wholesale" bid. A few greedy dealers still trying to sell at ask +. Those are the ones tying up their money.
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay