what happened to the predicted PM downturn?
PreTurb
Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭
Seems every guru has been saying there will be a short-term PM downturn at any time. This was at $1220 gold and $18 silver. So, I've been waiting patiently for this downturn.
Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on?
Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on?
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<< <i>Seems every guru has been saying there will be a short-term PM downturn at any time. This was at $1220 gold and $18 silver. So, I've been waiting patiently for this downturn.
Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on? >>
The downturn occurred less than a week ago in silver...was down to $17.79, since I don't follow gold, I can't tell you.
BTW..ProofCollection, nailed that call approx 1 week prior.
Did the EXPERTS warn us about the housing drop?
Did the EXPERTS warn us our 401ks were going to fall by 50%?
Did the EXPERTS tip us off that gold was going from $265 to $1200+ ?
Did the EXPERTS tip us off to Enron folding?
Did the EXPERTS ...........
Oh ......... how about the Fed openly saying that they are buying Government debt ... i.e. QE??
The writing is on the wall in florecent red .......
No one over the age of 30, with an IQ over 95, will have an excuse for not knowing that METALS is were any extra $$ should be deployed.
Some folks are smart / lucky enough to pick and trade at market tops and bottoms.
Unfortunatally ........ that has just never been me ......... sooooooo over the years I just
KEEP ON STACK"N !!!
(ok, I,ll give up the soap box now.)
********************
Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
I knew it would happen.
Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on?
Patience. If one really wanted to buy gold they should have done so at previous lows this year at $1044 and $1156....or even $1190. While it is $20 higher now than a week ago, chasing the price up after a month long uptrend doesn't make sense to me. Gold dipped to $1215 only 2 days ago and one could have taken advantage of that via futures, ETF's or mining stocks. Opportunities on pull backs sure aren't lasting as long as they used to. Gold has now been running up since $1156. At some point it's going to need a rest and to retrace at least some fraction of that $90-$110+ move.
Everytime I thought I missed the boat on a rally and wanted to jump in on desperation, invariably the price caved in within days or a week later. The time to buy is when it's the very hardest to and when gold seems like it's going to just keep falling and falling. That's when you buy. When no one else wants to. I don't feel that right now.
roadrunner
Correct!
(The only other alternative is the average in and then sell when you need the money, and not to worry at all about the price in either case.)
I've done it both ways. Either way, you can still sleep soundly if you own the pm. You try to time your purchases if you need the adrenalin rush, but it's not essential.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>This is why I buy when ever I have the $$$.
Did the EXPERTS warn us about the housing drop?
Did the EXPERTS warn us our 401ks were going to fall by 50%?
Did the EXPERTS tip us off that gold was going from $265 to $1200+ ?
Did the EXPERTS tip us off to Enron folding?
Did the EXPERTS ...........
Oh ......... how about the Fed openly saying that they are buying Government debt ... i.e. QE??
The writing is on the wall in florecent red .......
No one over the age of 30, with an IQ over 95, will have an excuse for not knowing that METALS is were any extra $$ should be deployed.
Some folks are smart / lucky enough to pick and trade at market tops and bottoms.
Unfortunatally ........ that has just never been me ......... sooooooo over the years I just
KEEP ON STACK"N !!!
(ok, I,ll give up the soap box now.) >>
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Worse yet, now about all those gurus who were or are still calling for $650-$1000 gold since last December. Actually some of them have been calling for $650 gold since summer of 2006 (Nadler & Co.). Some gurus have been calling for $200 gold since 2004 (Prechter). Gurus come in all shapes and sizes. Sinclair has been calling for $1650 gold in January 2011 for the past couple of years. Will he too become a totally failed gold prognosticator if that does not occur? It would appear so. The bearish gold crowd has a very long memory.
If nearly "every" guru is calling for a downturn, odds are the opposite direction is the likely outcome.
roadrunner
You folks accumulate all the fact, assimilate them, discard the BS
and seem to distill good common sense information and opinion.
Well done all.
Camelot
It is better to just dollar cost average your way into the market and you avoid all the consternation of market timing. It definitely helps me to sleep more soundly.
I in fact did state that I expected a drop in pm's this summer -- I believe I said so starting in May. That was based on seasonal performance and during this decade run, even years (substitute election years) have tended to have sizeable drops/dips, etc.
I also have said that I was looking for this drop to sell my paper (mostly CEF, some GLD and SLW) and would convert it to physical... the barometer I use because much of my paper is in CEF... is the premium in CEF. I bought in when the premium was around 2.5%. Its currently about 8%. I have seen it above 12% (which I would sell into), and around 5% (which I would read as a signal of continued weakness and would also sell). In either case, I would use the situation to help the costs of the conversion into physical.
I have been surprised that it has not happened... I say 'yet'... since there is a few weeks of 'summer' left. That has been the so called 'PLAN', I've been open about it and also stated that....... 'plans can change and often do'.
I have read much talk lately of another stock market drop, money would NOT go towards treasury/bonds, and pm's would have a short term spike... before forced liquidations would bring down pm's along with 'everything else'.
In that senario... I would increase my 'hedge' in SDS, sell the SLW first... GLD second... continue to monitor premium in CEF... and look for a decent time to use proceeds and get back in using physical... my guess would be either 1st or 3rd week of October. My best guess is that a mirror repeat of 2008 is NOT in the near future -- the majority was caught off guard, I don't think that is the case now.
Thats as honest and clear as I can be here.