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what happened to the predicted PM downturn?

PreTurbPreTurb Posts: 1,182 ✭✭✭
Seems every guru has been saying there will be a short-term PM downturn at any time. This was at $1220 gold and $18 silver. So, I've been waiting patiently for this downturn.

Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on?


Comments

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Seems every guru has been saying there will be a short-term PM downturn at any time. This was at $1220 gold and $18 silver. So, I've been waiting patiently for this downturn.

    Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on? >>



    The downturn occurred less than a week ago in silver...was down to $17.79, since I don't follow gold, I can't tell you.

    BTW..ProofCollection, nailed that call approx 1 week prior.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • This is why I buy when ever I have the $$$.

    Did the EXPERTS warn us about the housing drop? image

    Did the EXPERTS warn us our 401ks were going to fall by 50%? image

    Did the EXPERTS tip us off that gold was going from $265 to $1200+ ? image

    Did the EXPERTS tip us off to Enron folding? image

    Did the EXPERTS ...........

    Oh ......... how about the Fed openly saying that they are buying Government debt ... i.e. QE?? image


    The writing is on the wall in florecent red .......

    No one over the age of 30, with an IQ over 95, will have an excuse for not knowing that METALS is were any extra $$ should be deployed. image


    Some folks are smart / lucky enough to pick and trade at market tops and bottoms.

    Unfortunatally ........ that has just never been me ......... sooooooo over the years I just


    KEEP ON STACK"N !!! image

    (ok, I,ll give up the soap box now.)
    Silver Baron
    ********************
    Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SB is right, you know. Slow and steady wins this race. The pump'n dump mentality bred by the stock market is a liability now.............
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Seems every guru has been saying there will be a short-term PM downturn at any time. This was at $1220 gold and $18 silver. So, I've been waiting patiently for this downturn.

    Now we're at $1240 gold and $19.30 silver. I hate to buy into a rally, but my patience is wearing thin... What's going on?


    Patience. If one really wanted to buy gold they should have done so at previous lows this year at $1044 and $1156....or even $1190. While it is $20 higher now than a week ago, chasing the price up after a month long uptrend doesn't make sense to me. Gold dipped to $1215 only 2 days ago and one could have taken advantage of that via futures, ETF's or mining stocks. Opportunities on pull backs sure aren't lasting as long as they used to. Gold has now been running up since $1156. At some point it's going to need a rest and to retrace at least some fraction of that $90-$110+ move.

    Everytime I thought I missed the boat on a rally and wanted to jump in on desperation, invariably the price caved in within days or a week later. The time to buy is when it's the very hardest to and when gold seems like it's going to just keep falling and falling. That's when you buy. When no one else wants to. I don't feel that right now.

    roadrunner

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The time to buy is when it's the very hardest to and when gold seems like it's going to just keep falling and falling. That's when you buy. When no one else wants to.

    Correct!image

    (The only other alternative is the average in and then sell when you need the money, and not to worry at all about the price in either case.)

    I've done it both ways. Either way, you can still sleep soundly if you own the pm. You try to time your purchases if you need the adrenalin rush, but it's not essential.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • KonaheadKonahead Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭


    << <i>This is why I buy when ever I have the $$$.

    Did the EXPERTS warn us about the housing drop? image

    Did the EXPERTS warn us our 401ks were going to fall by 50%? image

    Did the EXPERTS tip us off that gold was going from $265 to $1200+ ? image

    Did the EXPERTS tip us off to Enron folding? image

    Did the EXPERTS ...........

    Oh ......... how about the Fed openly saying that they are buying Government debt ... i.e. QE?? image


    The writing is on the wall in florecent red .......

    No one over the age of 30, with an IQ over 95, will have an excuse for not knowing that METALS is were any extra $$ should be deployed. image


    Some folks are smart / lucky enough to pick and trade at market tops and bottoms.

    Unfortunatally ........ that has just never been me ......... sooooooo over the years I just


    KEEP ON STACK"N !!! image

    (ok, I,ll give up the soap box now.) >>




    imageimage
    PEACE! This is the first day of the rest of your life.

    Fred, Las Vegas, NV
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,117 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not all gurus. Just the ones you don't want to listen to anymore. Make note to self.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    By crossing out those who made a wrong call in short to intermediate term calls in gold over the past 10 yrs....your list of remaining "gurus" would have been at zero long ago. No one gets the markets right even 65-80% of the time in shorter terms, never mind 100% of the time.

    Worse yet, now about all those gurus who were or are still calling for $650-$1000 gold since last December. Actually some of them have been calling for $650 gold since summer of 2006 (Nadler & Co.). Some gurus have been calling for $200 gold since 2004 (Prechter). Gurus come in all shapes and sizes. Sinclair has been calling for $1650 gold in January 2011 for the past couple of years. Will he too become a totally failed gold prognosticator if that does not occur? It would appear so. The bearish gold crowd has a very long memory.

    If nearly "every" guru is calling for a downturn, odds are the opposite direction is the likely outcome.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BearBear Posts: 18,954 ✭✭
    The best gurus ,seem to be the collective wisdom on this Forum.

    You folks accumulate all the fact, assimilate them, discard the BS

    and seem to distill good common sense information and opinion.

    Well done all.image
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • That downturn to 1160 about a month ago was pretty hard to miss if you watch gold daily. I picked some up there as well as the last time gold peaked about 1240. You win some you lose some.

    It is better to just dollar cost average your way into the market and you avoid all the consternation of market timing. It definitely helps me to sleep more soundly.
    Many buy and sell transactions. Let's talk!
  • mhammermanmhammerman Posts: 3,769 ✭✭✭
    I've been in a PM downturn of late. Haven't been able to buy for months because I decided to invest in a foundation leveling for about 2400 sf of slab or 23 piers. I had to settle for sending some coins off to PCGS for grading. Six raw coins and two previously slabbed ones as part of renewing my membership. Of the 6 raw, I got a prf 70 dcam '06 buff out of the deal and of the two previously slabbed I got a 45 from what was a 40 $5 42 C LD. Not bad but I still am in a downturn. There's more than one way to feed the Jones.
  • meluaufeetmeluaufeet Posts: 746 ✭✭✭
    I am no 'guru'... have not claimed to be or pretended to be...

    I in fact did state that I expected a drop in pm's this summer -- I believe I said so starting in May. That was based on seasonal performance and during this decade run, even years (substitute election years) have tended to have sizeable drops/dips, etc.

    I also have said that I was looking for this drop to sell my paper (mostly CEF, some GLD and SLW) and would convert it to physical... the barometer I use because much of my paper is in CEF... is the premium in CEF. I bought in when the premium was around 2.5%. Its currently about 8%. I have seen it above 12% (which I would sell into), and around 5% (which I would read as a signal of continued weakness and would also sell). In either case, I would use the situation to help the costs of the conversion into physical.

    I have been surprised that it has not happened... I say 'yet'... since there is a few weeks of 'summer' left. That has been the so called 'PLAN', I've been open about it and also stated that....... 'plans can change and often do'.

    I have read much talk lately of another stock market drop, money would NOT go towards treasury/bonds, and pm's would have a short term spike... before forced liquidations would bring down pm's along with 'everything else'.

    In that senario... I would increase my 'hedge' in SDS, sell the SLW first... GLD second... continue to monitor premium in CEF... and look for a decent time to use proceeds and get back in using physical... my guess would be either 1st or 3rd week of October. My best guess is that a mirror repeat of 2008 is NOT in the near future -- the majority was caught off guard, I don't think that is the case now.

    Thats as honest and clear as I can be here.
  • "Gurus" are the last people on earth I'd listen to for advice-- ESPECIALLY the ones that sell newsletters.
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