Gold Report from Barry Stuppler
ambro51
Posts: 13,960 ✭✭✭✭✭
If you have purchased from him, you probably already got this email. If not, it is an interesting read. BTW every coin Ive purchased from Barry has lived up to his "very PQ" ebay name.
Gold, is it ready for the major break out?
The answer is YES. After trading in the $1,150 to $1,265 per ounce price range for the past 4 months, gold has built an extraordinary base for the next leg up to $1,500.
Building a base is very important as it allows for many important market supports to take place.
For example, mines can sell or hedge their current and future productions; investors can take profits or add position in their trade, and traders can hedge their funds to acquire stronger positions.
We are coming into a seasonal strong demand period for gold. Worldwide jewelers build up physical gold inventories to manufacture their products for holiday sales.
I believe you’ll see this major gold breakout within the next 30-45 days because all the fundamentals are looking good. The European sovereign debt crises hasn’t gone away, housing numbers continue to fall, unemployment stays near record highs and the increasing supply of worldwide paper assets continue to offer unbelievable low yields.
Many of my clients have been asking is the time right for Silver? Let's wait to see if Silver can move over $20 an ounce and hold while gold breaks out and sets new highs.
The question I really want to address is ‘When will the rare gold coin market catch up with the gold bullion prices’?
After attending the Boston ANA convention earlier this month I think the rare coin rally is coming sooner than expected. The availability of investment quality rare coins on the convention bourse floor was virtually nonexistent. In 40 years of attending the largest coin convention of the year the “World’s Fair of Money” I purchased less than 10 gold and silver rare coins in a six day show. Selling high grade rare coins wasn’t an issue as I sold 80% of the coins I took to the show.
The newly inaugurated “+” grading systems by PCGS and NGC are getting a lot of attention. NGC has recently come on line with “+” grading, and it appears that their standards for “+” graded coins are not as strict as PCGS’ standard. From the coins I have inspected PCGS will require the coin to be a .85 or better (top 15% of the grade) to earn the “+” rating, while NGC would attribute a “+” grade on coins they feel are a .51 or better (top 49% of the grade). Since most of the dealers are now choosing NGC for their “+” submissions I think it will only be a short period of time before PCGS lowers its standards. I agree with NGC and feel coins that fit their criteria should receive the “+” grade. I will be sending out an email when the time to re-submit your coins for the “+” grading is right.
Although the summer has traditionally been a slow period for rare coin and precious metal products, I believe that within the next 30-60 days the market makers, investors and the public will be back aggressively purchasing, due to the lack of better investment options at this time.
Sincerely,
Barry Stuppler
barry@stuppler.com
www.stuppler.com
eBay I.D. VERYPQ
888-454-0444
Gold, is it ready for the major break out?
The answer is YES. After trading in the $1,150 to $1,265 per ounce price range for the past 4 months, gold has built an extraordinary base for the next leg up to $1,500.
Building a base is very important as it allows for many important market supports to take place.
For example, mines can sell or hedge their current and future productions; investors can take profits or add position in their trade, and traders can hedge their funds to acquire stronger positions.
We are coming into a seasonal strong demand period for gold. Worldwide jewelers build up physical gold inventories to manufacture their products for holiday sales.
I believe you’ll see this major gold breakout within the next 30-45 days because all the fundamentals are looking good. The European sovereign debt crises hasn’t gone away, housing numbers continue to fall, unemployment stays near record highs and the increasing supply of worldwide paper assets continue to offer unbelievable low yields.
Many of my clients have been asking is the time right for Silver? Let's wait to see if Silver can move over $20 an ounce and hold while gold breaks out and sets new highs.
The question I really want to address is ‘When will the rare gold coin market catch up with the gold bullion prices’?
After attending the Boston ANA convention earlier this month I think the rare coin rally is coming sooner than expected. The availability of investment quality rare coins on the convention bourse floor was virtually nonexistent. In 40 years of attending the largest coin convention of the year the “World’s Fair of Money” I purchased less than 10 gold and silver rare coins in a six day show. Selling high grade rare coins wasn’t an issue as I sold 80% of the coins I took to the show.
The newly inaugurated “+” grading systems by PCGS and NGC are getting a lot of attention. NGC has recently come on line with “+” grading, and it appears that their standards for “+” graded coins are not as strict as PCGS’ standard. From the coins I have inspected PCGS will require the coin to be a .85 or better (top 15% of the grade) to earn the “+” rating, while NGC would attribute a “+” grade on coins they feel are a .51 or better (top 49% of the grade). Since most of the dealers are now choosing NGC for their “+” submissions I think it will only be a short period of time before PCGS lowers its standards. I agree with NGC and feel coins that fit their criteria should receive the “+” grade. I will be sending out an email when the time to re-submit your coins for the “+” grading is right.
Although the summer has traditionally been a slow period for rare coin and precious metal products, I believe that within the next 30-60 days the market makers, investors and the public will be back aggressively purchasing, due to the lack of better investment options at this time.
Sincerely,
Barry Stuppler
barry@stuppler.com
www.stuppler.com
eBay I.D. VERYPQ
888-454-0444
0
Comments
I disagree. I believe the market will continue to be flat. Too many dealers with whom I have spoken say that liquidity is a problem. Since Long Beach, generic gold in MS63-65 has continued to fall, especially $20 Libs and $20 Saints. I have had to do many more "trade" deals in order to keep cash flowing. Haven't seen that in about 10 years.
TRUTH
Why is that? Do past presidents of the ANA have an exceptional track record of predicting bullion markets?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Although the summer has traditionally been a slow period for rare coin and precious metal products, I believe that within the next 30-60 days the market makers, investors and the public will be back aggressively purchasing...
I disagree. I believe the market will continue to be flat. Too many dealers with whom I have spoken say that liquidity is a problem. Since Long Beach, generic gold in MS63-65 has continued to fall, especially $20 Libs and $20 Saints. I have had to do many more "trade" deals in order to keep cash flowing. Haven't seen that in about 10 years.
TRUTH >>
+1. A lot of guys are becoming selective on what they're buying right now as inventories are starting to build... and more stuff is coming in the door of shops as John Q. Public tries to raise cash to put the kids back in school or pay quarterly taxes. That's ok if you are flipping it or have OTC buyers but otherwise you're eating up cash flow with an uncertain holiday season in the offing.
Have you also noticed that bids for proof gold eagles, etc are falling off again? That tells me the guys who were driving those numbers are either overbought or nervous... or both.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
What is interesting is that gold is in a trading range and within that range, people make money both ways and it may not stop for a while.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
No one can accurately predict the top of the market. Plus, when the market explodes there are always hordes of buyers who want to 'get in on it' and 'buy high'. Ridiculous, I know, but that is how it happens. When gold takes off, there will be plenty of buyers, after all, if there were not buyers, the market would crash. Cheers, RickO
That could mean many things, even that the market is lower than potential sellers think it should be or that they may still fear it to go lower. Not that either of these possibilities is what I think, but just hard to infer from such information is my point.
Ambro, are you quoting Mr. Stuppler, or are you him? If so, curious use of the 3rd person in the intro to prev. post. Anyway, interesting to see how it plays out.
I am just trying to get my 70 slabbed 2010 1/4 & 1/2 oz eagles and would like the price to dip a wee bit...
Well, just Love coins, period.
5 Investing Bubbles
Gold Why it's hot
Gold was rising even before the recession. But panic over world markets and the health of European and U.S. economies propelled it into the stratosphere. Prices have risen 150% in the past five years, repeatedly setting new records. Meanwhile, small investors have stormed in. Some fear that stimulus spending could lead to massive inflation; they believe a tangible material like gold will hold its value better than other assets.
Why it's worrisome
Inflation isn't rising. It's falling and likely to be restrained for some time by a tepid economy.
Verdict: a major bubble
Gold has already started slipping. It declined 6% in July to a recent $1,160 an ounce. Some economists are warning that continued weakness could lead to deflation. If that happens, expect gold to crater.
I personally feel the numismatic gold market is very small, currently, but if a PORTION of that 33 billion that has been pulled from mutual funds is finding its way into this type of gold....demand will far outstrip supply. As long as the Mints of the various countries that produce gold coinage, as bullion, continue, the situation will stay the same. IF the worlds mints begin to feel the pinch of metal availability, and slow down on production (as the US has)....then the supply of existing gold coinage will be in far greater demand.
In my mind...it boils down to the fact you cant "short" actual physical metal.
<< <i>It declined 6% in July to a recent $1,160 an ounce. >>
Gold is currently up $65 from July. How's the stock market doing these days?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I'm quite puzzled about the recent dip in generic MS63-65 old gold, even as bullion has climbed. I think there will be a substantial rebound--I think it enough to have set aside some of my other collecting plans to grab an extra Saint a month ago while it was cheap. I figure I've got another two or three months at best, maybe enough for a $5 or $10 in the mid-range of grades, before they start taking off again. If gold does go to $1500 an ounce, it makes no sense for a PCGS-graded MS64 Saint with 96% of that metal to be only two or three hundred bucks more. The spread is ludicrously cheap right now, and if I had any plain bullion left laying around, I'd be putting it into up-trading to graded old gold, too. >>
Speculation was the runup on the $20 Libs and $20 Saints. Good promotion of those coins made the price escalate quickly. However, the speculation ended and all it takes is several hundred MS64 $20's to come on the market on a regular basis to make the market lower.
Gold bullion is universal, people buy it and nations buy it. Generic TPG graded gold is almost exclusively a US commodity.
TRUTH
<< <i>Fortune Magazine has this to say about gold:
5 Investing Bubbles
Gold Why it's hot
Gold was rising even before the recession. But panic over world markets and the health of European and U.S. economies propelled it into the stratosphere. Prices have risen 150% in the past five years, repeatedly setting new records. Meanwhile, small investors have stormed in. Some fear that stimulus spending could lead to massive inflation; they believe a tangible material like gold will hold its value better than other assets.
Why it's worrisome
Inflation isn't rising. It's falling and likely to be restrained for some time by a tepid economy.
Verdict: a major bubble
Gold has already started slipping. It declined 6% in July to a recent $1,160 an ounce. Some economists are warning that continued weakness could lead to deflation. If that happens, expect gold to crater. >>
As today gold hits a high.
<< <i>Interesting read for sure and I am a advocate of owning precious metals both gold and silver. However, to put a price tag on where gold will be in the next few months is purely speculative and I think that the letter kind of comes across as a sales pitch. >>
:
I believe that gold will go higher, perhaps much higher, but as to when it's anybody's guess.
I can see speculation having driven up the MS64-65 crowd, but I think it's over-corrected at this point. I think the same logic that got people speculating in the first place--that if gold levels off and starts zig-zagging down instead of up, these coins will have intrinsic rarity and collector worth to buffer against gold alone. Granted, if gold bubble-pops, they're still going with it. But, at least I'm "stuck" with really nice coins.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm quite puzzled about the recent dip in generic MS63-65 old gold, even as bullion has climbed. I think there will be a substantial rebound--I think it enough to have set aside some of my other collecting plans to grab an extra Saint a month ago while it was cheap. I figure I've got another two or three months at best, maybe enough for a $5 or $10 in the mid-range of grades, before they start taking off again. If gold does go to $1500 an ounce, it makes no sense for a PCGS-graded MS64 Saint with 96% of that metal to be only two or three hundred bucks more. The spread is ludicrously cheap right now, and if I had any plain bullion left laying around, I'd be putting it into up-trading to graded old gold, too. >>
Speculation was the runup on the $20 Libs and $20 Saints. Good promotion of those coins made the price escalate quickly. However, the speculation ended and all it takes is several hundred MS64 $20's to come on the market on a regular basis to make the market lower.
Gold bullion is universal, people buy it and nations buy it. Generic TPG graded gold is almost exclusively a US commodity.I am not fooling around with common ms 63 and 64 us libs and saints.....I am buying slabbed large gem world gold coins for 3% to 7% over spot depending on country.
TRUTH >>
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Fortune Magazine has this to say about gold:
5 Investing Bubbles
Gold Why it's hot
Gold was rising even before the recession. But panic over world markets and the health of European and U.S. economies propelled it into the stratosphere. Prices have risen 150% in the past five years, repeatedly setting new records. Meanwhile, small investors have stormed in. Some fear that stimulus spending could lead to massive inflation; they believe a tangible material like gold will hold its value better than other assets.
Why it's worrisome
Inflation isn't rising. It's falling and likely to be restrained for some time by a tepid economy.
Verdict: a major bubble
Gold has already started slipping. It declined 6% in July to a recent $1,160 an ounce. Some economists are warning that continued weakness could lead to deflation. If that happens, expect gold to crater. >>
I was going to make the point about deflation but you beat me to the punch. And in a more eloquent fashion that I was prepared to offer.
<< <i>The newly inaugurated “+” grading systems by PCGS and NGC are getting a lot of attention. NGC has recently come on line with “+” grading, and it appears that their standards for “+” graded coins are not as strict as PCGS’ standard. From the coins I have inspected PCGS will require the coin to be a .85 or better (top 15% of the grade) to earn the “+” rating, while NGC would attribute a “+” grade on coins they feel are a .51 or better (top 49% of the grade). Since most of the dealers are now choosing NGC for their “+” submissions I think it will only be a short period of time before PCGS lowers its standards. I agree with NGC and feel coins that fit their criteria should receive the “+” grade. I will be sending out an email when the time to re-submit your coins for the “+” grading is right. >>
I certainly hope PCGS does not loosen its plus-grading standards. How disappointing for those who have already submitted excellent examples but inexplicably did not secure pluses. Should these coins come to market potential buyers, unable to see these coins in hand, might logically assume they were graded under a looser standard and are not up to snuff.
Lance.
<< <i>Fortune Magazine has this to say about gold:
5 Investing Bubbles
Gold Why it's hot
Gold was rising even before the recession. But panic over world markets and the health of European and U.S. economies propelled it into the stratosphere. Prices have risen 150% in the past five years, repeatedly setting new records. Meanwhile, small investors have stormed in. Some fear that stimulus spending could lead to massive inflation; they believe a tangible material like gold will hold its value better than other assets.
Why it's worrisome
Inflation isn't rising. It's falling and likely to be restrained for some time by a tepid economy.
Verdict: a major bubble
Gold has already started slipping. It declined 6% in July to a recent $1,160 an ounce. Some economists are warning that continued weakness could lead to deflation. If that happens, expect gold to crater. >>
I cannot think of any time since 2005 that the paper bugs have not considered gold to be overvalued.
Treasuries = the real bubble.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
For the past 4-1/2 years generics have fallen into a deep hole during every major gold correction. The past 9 months since the December 3rd peak is no exception. Generic gold coins have been decimated once again. But they will recover as soon as gold gets into a speculative frenzy again....$1275 to $1300 should get things jumping. And just wait to see what MS64 Saints are at gold $1400-$1500. Saints are somewhat illiquid in both directions. As soon as the demand picks up just a tad, the existing supply in the market will be gone in days, or just a week or two. Promotors sensing another opportunity will rush in and push things even higher. Once the next peak is reached they'll all run for cover and let the generics once again fall into the abyss. It's just cycles. A new inflationary trend will be much more apparent by Sept-October. Gold doesn't care about "trade" deals or coin dealers cash flow. It only cares about what fiat currencies are doing and the confidence in govt spending/debts/QE whether seen or hidden. Whether the rest of the coin market runs with gold remains to be seen. It did in the 1970's but there's no guarantee it will this time. Imo I think it will eventually hop on gold's coat tails. If/when commodities commence another run up, they won't leave rare coins sitting in the dust. Don't weep yet for generic gold. The same was said of gold mining stocks. Eventually both areas will outperform gold bullion once again. Coins like MS63-64 $10 Indians and Libs are at multi-year lows. They won't stay there if gold heads over $1300.
roadrunner