2011 could take the average price down as far as $950,”
goingbroke
Posts: 1,410
Gold Could Slide During Third and Fourth Quarters : Natixis
30 July 2010, 4:25 p.m.
By Kitco News www.kitco.com
London –(Kitco News) --Despite setting an all-time record of $1,265 per ounce in late-June, the London-based commodity broker Natixis is forecasting gold will drop to as low as $1,050 per ounce during 2010’s fourth quarter in a report released Friday.
“We forecast a slide in prices in the third quarter, perhaps accelerating in the fourth quarter, with the market at some point this year approaching the $1,050/oz mark to give an annual average of $1,125/oz,” Natixis said.
Due to the sovereign debt problem slowly becoming less of an issue, the need for gold as an alternative safe haven asset is being reduced. Another bearish factor is producer de-hedging, Natrixis reported, “which having averaged around 350 tonnes a year for the period 2006-09 is set to fall to trivial levels due to the much reduced scale of the outstanding hedge book”.
“With gold’s negative fundamentals being deep-seated, further weakness in 2011 could take the average price down as far as $950,” Natixis said.
The report said Palladium is expected to maintain its growth mainly driven by the automotive industry and the demand for petrol driven cars.
Platinum is also expected to perform positively due to labor disputes, energy distribution and safety issues affecting South Africa’s Platinum supply, the world’s primary producer of the metal.
“Overall, we expect platinum prices to average $1,600/oz for 2010 as a whole, with the average palladium price at $465/oz. Next year, ongoing increases take our forecast for platinum to an average of $1,700/oz and palladium to $510/oz,” said Natixis.
Natixis forecasts silver to follow gold and slip to as low as $16 by the end of the fourth quarter. A more bullish base metals market in 2011 is expected to give some support to industrial silver demand, with an average price of $15.50 per ounce, Natrixis reported.
BIG PRICE DROP!
30 July 2010, 4:25 p.m.
By Kitco News www.kitco.com
London –(Kitco News) --Despite setting an all-time record of $1,265 per ounce in late-June, the London-based commodity broker Natixis is forecasting gold will drop to as low as $1,050 per ounce during 2010’s fourth quarter in a report released Friday.
“We forecast a slide in prices in the third quarter, perhaps accelerating in the fourth quarter, with the market at some point this year approaching the $1,050/oz mark to give an annual average of $1,125/oz,” Natixis said.
Due to the sovereign debt problem slowly becoming less of an issue, the need for gold as an alternative safe haven asset is being reduced. Another bearish factor is producer de-hedging, Natrixis reported, “which having averaged around 350 tonnes a year for the period 2006-09 is set to fall to trivial levels due to the much reduced scale of the outstanding hedge book”.
“With gold’s negative fundamentals being deep-seated, further weakness in 2011 could take the average price down as far as $950,” Natixis said.
The report said Palladium is expected to maintain its growth mainly driven by the automotive industry and the demand for petrol driven cars.
Platinum is also expected to perform positively due to labor disputes, energy distribution and safety issues affecting South Africa’s Platinum supply, the world’s primary producer of the metal.
“Overall, we expect platinum prices to average $1,600/oz for 2010 as a whole, with the average palladium price at $465/oz. Next year, ongoing increases take our forecast for platinum to an average of $1,700/oz and palladium to $510/oz,” said Natixis.
Natixis forecasts silver to follow gold and slip to as low as $16 by the end of the fourth quarter. A more bullish base metals market in 2011 is expected to give some support to industrial silver demand, with an average price of $15.50 per ounce, Natrixis reported.
BIG PRICE DROP!
Many successful BST transactions ajia
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"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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mariner67, and Mikes coins
Just about the dumbest thing I've heard in a while. Sovereign debt issue getting better? Did the author ever stop to think that 400 tons per year of Euro gold sales has stopped or that CG's are buying hundreds of tons per gold per year? Never fear though, companies like AngloGold are still fairly heavily hedged. Though Barrick has claimed to have eliminated its hedges by returning physical gold they said that before....and just papered back over earlier hedges. The BIS just became part of a 382 ton gold swap for probably no other reason that to help some commercial banks out from the wrong end of gold shorts. Why would they need to do that if gold were plentiful to them? Why didn't they just approach the CB's who supposedly have 31,000 tons of the stuff? Word has it they might have raided unallocated gold accounts throughout the Euro banks.
Yes, gold has risen for 10 yrs based on "deep seated negative fundamentals."..........
If you think the Euro sov. debt issue is behind us read Reggie Middleton's blog that is full of facts and spreadsheets. He has been right on with his calls starting with Lehman, Merrill and others long before they went belly up. Who should we believe, the facts or the published "stress" test results?
Middleton on Euro bank stress tests
roadrunner
the bottom i recognize is around 1050-1100.
and with the "pickle" we are in - you wont see low numbers anytime soon.
So far, I see no reason to doubt the above quote. Oh wait, today the Fed is buying our own debt. The House passed a 26 billion dollar stimulus today for the states. They say the 26 billion is funded thru other cuts. Who believes that?
QE to infinity.
The mid-term elections may have a small downward impact on the price of gold, assuming certain people get elected, but the defining moment will be the huge tax increases in 2011.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I could start working out and get back in shape, but that wont happen either.
Fixed and agreed... hahaha.
<< <i> As stated before by others, "On or before January 14,2011 gold will be $1650." >>
Down to $1650 now?....what ever happened to all the fortune tellers that predicted gold at $2000 by e/o 2009...revised later to "by e/o 2010?" Heck, I'm still waiting for gold to hit $1300, but I'm getting tired of holding my breath....
I'm not aware of any decent, mainstream gold analyst that was predicting $2,000 gold in any part of 2009, esp considering gold floundered from February to August of that year. If you know of even one, please list their name. I do know of some excellent analysts that are predicting $2000+ gold from 2011-2015.
I think gold could be taken down to under $950 in 2010, but put the odds at that at less than 10%. I figure the odds are greater than gold makes a new all time high in the remaining part of 2010, than heading down to $950-$1000. If the QE2 balloon goes up in Sept or Oct (ie right before the elections), then we'll get a new high.
roadrunner
<< <i>
I do know of some excellent analysts that are predicting $2000+ gold from 2011-2015.
>>
Are you calling Jim Cramer an excellent analysts
He had a mining CEO on last night, and said that he feels gold is going to 2000.
<< <i>I'm not aware of any decent, mainstream gold analyst that was predicting $2,000 gold in any part of 2009, esp considering gold floundered from February to August of that year. If you know of even one, please list their name >>
To many to be listed...granted, some are not mainstream analysts. But who said that they were? Do a google search for.... Gold $2000...
Interesting older forum thread on the subject.
2009 Forum thread
<< <i>I predict that precious metals will go up and down at random intervals......... >>
I'm with you on that one .... probably true with just about everything.
<< <i>On December 15, 2008, Natixis revealed that it had lost more than US$450 million in the Madoff investment scandal on Wall Street—the largest Ponzi scheme in history. >>
Nexitis from wiki post