Clive Maunde agrees with cohodk!
jmski52
Posts: 22,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
I see a bad moon arisin.....................
Crap, a reasonably good technical indicator, the Baltic Dry Index is going south.
Crap, a reasonably good technical indicator, the Baltic Dry Index is going south.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Comments
Should I cash out the 401K & buy the dip as every one is liquidating?
I give far more respect to Cohodk's calls that I do Clive's. Clive ain't in the same league.
On this call I'm going with Adam Hamilton of Zeal. He thinks what we're seeing now is just a major shakeout in the Stock Market cyclical bull that began in March 2009. Everyone had been calling for one and it was long overdue. Per A.H. there is more rise left in the S&P after this 13-17% correction is done. The BDI dropped over 50% in the last few months while the shipping companies themselves performed FAR better. Some have been on the rise for a while. I don't know why this would be the case. You would never figure such a drop in the BDI just by looking at how the shippers have performed. I'm no expert in shipping so any inputs would be welcomed.
roadrunner
And the BDI does seem to be a good concurrent indicator of business activity, not leading, not lagging by much either. I trust what the BDI is saying, and it is saying that things aren't particularly rosy in the world of international shipping. It could get worse, of course and I tend to think that we are always vulnerable to a trade war when we keep the dollar at rock bottom lows in order to push US products while Europe is all-of-a-sudden fiscally conservative. (Yeah, right. When pigs fly!)
What this back & forth means to me is that nobody is getting anything for nothing anymore unless the US keeps pumping out dollars, the monetary lubricant that makes everything ok temporarily. We had a card game in college that resembles this concept, a three-cornered game in which somebody always gets screwed by the other two players. Stay tuned. The US can't afford to raise rates, now or anytime in the foreseeable future. Something has got to give, and I'm sure that it will.
this is the 3rd time I've heard this.
Should I cash out the 401K & buy the dip as every one is liquidating?
The American dream of ownership in companies has been perverted in Wall Street when the banks and hedge funds are given free reign to create their own derivatives and to value them as they please in order to fake their financials, when the government can use taxpayer money to float corrupt banks who cheat their own clients and award billions in bonuses to executives who ran the company into the ground in order to make those same corrupt banks whole, and when the government can flout bankruptcy law in order to use taxpayer money to pay off union retirees who had it better than anyone else during their working careers and retired with benefits that none of us could ever hope to duplicate. The government is even worse.
I try not to do anything in a hurry, but incrementally. In my opinion, the name of the game is to NOT give any more money to the bankers, the brokers, the taxman and the politicians. Stock ownership leaves you vulnerable to all of the above. Leaving money in the system at this juncture is simply more risky than taking it out, and the rewards for leaving it in the system are zero. jmho, of course.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>It will all come down to what people trust the most. Do they trust the euro, US dollar, or gold ? >>
When in doubt, they trust the stock market. They can ride it up or down and make money if they know what they are doing.
We are entering a temporary phase where cash will be king. I for one am moving into cash. Current declines in both metals and equities indicate many others are doing the same.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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<< <i>It will all come down to what people trust the most. Do they trust the euro, US dollar, or gold ? >>
When in doubt, they trust the stock market. They can ride it up or down and make money if they know what they are doing.
We are entering a temporary phase where cash will be king. I for one am moving into cash. Current declines in both metals and equities indicate many others are doing the same. >>
Cash will always be king ... PM's are just another investment which, btw are purchased with some sort of cash. I'm willing to bet, that if J6P has a choice of getting 10 x $100 bills or 1 oz gold bar, he'd choose the bills.
be careful.
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We are entering a temporary phase where cash will be king. I for one am moving into cash. Current declines in both metals and equities indicate many others are doing the same. >>
Cash will always be king ... PM's are just another investment which, btw are purchased with some sort of cash. I'm willing to bet, that if J6P has a choice of getting 10 x $100 bills or 1 oz gold bar, he'd choose the bills. >>
It appears that cash is king for many investors right now. It really doesn't matter what J6P thinks or does, markets move when the billionaires decide where they want their money to grow.
<< <i>Unless there are some policy changes in Washington, cash will not be king for long. It may be king for a while, but
be careful. >>
I've been hearing that song & dance routine for 40years now and I doubt I'll be around if it ever comes to fruition.
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I've been hearing that song & dance routine for 40years now. >>
Just be careful, that's all.
Listen, what's been better for J6P over the past five years....
A. His $500 in cash ?
B. His $500 worth of Exxon Mobil shares ?
C. His $500 he invested in gold ?
I think the economic reality is that stocks and cash are losing versus gold. So cash has not be king for quite some time
now. Just be careful.
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<< <i>It will all come down to what people trust the most. Do they trust the euro, US dollar, or gold ? >>
When in doubt, they trust the stock market. They can ride it up or down and make money if they know what they are doing.
We are entering a temporary phase where cash will be king. I for one am moving into cash. Current declines in both metals and equities indicate many others are doing the same. >>
Gold has outperformed cash and the market over the past ten years. It has significantly outperformed.
Macroeconomic indicators suggest that that trend is in place for quite some time. Cash is safe money, yes, but
it has not even closely kept up with gold.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>It will all come down to what people trust the most. Do they trust the euro, US dollar, or gold ? >>
When in doubt, they trust the stock market. They can ride it up or down and make money if they know what they are doing.
We are entering a temporary phase where cash will be king. I for one am moving into cash. Current declines in both metals and equities indicate many others are doing the same. >>
Gold has outperformed cash and the market over the past ten years. It has significantly outperformed.
Macroeconomic indicators suggest that that trend is in place for quite some time. Cash is safe money, yes, but
it has not even closely kept up with gold. >>
Since when is cash an investment tool, unless your purchase something with it. I can give you numerous assets and stocks that have outperformed Gold over the last 10 years. Gold is just another commodity investment .. but I have serious doubts if it will have the same % gains over the next 10 years. Only time will tell ... my crystal ball broke a long time ago & I don't plan on getting it fixed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
40 yrs has often been given as the approximate life of a pure fiat currency. The dollar will have 39 yrs come August.
Since when is cash an investment tool, unless your purchase something with it. I can give you numerous assets and stocks that have outperformed Gold over the last 10 years. Gold is just another commodity investment .. but I have serious doubts if it will have the same % gains over the next 10 years. Only time will tell ... my crystal ball broke a long time ago & I don't plan on getting it fixed.
Gold and commodities are fairly closely related. Please name some non-PM and non-commodity assets that have outperformed PM's over the past 10 yrs. Pleae don't list specific stocks as we are comparing to PM's and commodities in general. You can use indicies, sectors, etc.
roadrunner
<< <i>The dollar will continue to be king as long as the people who are printing it are able to destroy demand for the alternatives. >>
Some are saying that Obama will have another quantitative easing come September/October.
Obama just blamed the Republicans for not wanting to extend unemployment benefits, while the Republicans clearly
want to extend them, but just asked Obama to take the money from the stimulus.
This administration is hell bent on printing money and giving it away to unions and people who don't work for it.
Plus, do you agree with the Senators who said that if the stimulus wasn't passed that the DJIA would drop 2,000 points
in one day, and another 3,000 points the next day, and that martial law would have to be passed if no stimulus was passed ?
Or do you think they were just playing politics ?
Make no mistake, our dollar and economy is collapsing right before our eyes, and yet people still do not believe it.
<< <i>I've been hearing that song & dance routine for 40years now and I doubt I'll be around if it ever comes to fruition.
40 yrs has often been given as the approximate life of a pure fiat currency. The dollar will have 39 yrs come August.
roadrunner >>
Is it really 40 years ? Can you give some background to that please !
I find that interesting because 40 years or days/nights is seen as a time for testing.
And may I also add that people in 1928 in the USA never saw it coming, nor did the people in Germany see
it coming around that time period either.
Please name some non-PM and non-commodity assets that have outperformed PM's over the past 10 yrs. Pleae don't list specific stocks as we are comparing to PM's and commodities in general. You can use indicies, sectors, etc.
roadrunner >>
...sugar & cocoa ... has outperformed gold for the last 10 years.
ditto ... Energy and biotechnology stocks
roadrunner
have some faith, man!
Proud Mary keep on burnin'
<< <i>Last I looked sugar, cocoa, and energy were commodities. But I'd still love to see some broad energy or biotech funds or indicies that have outperformed gold or PM's in general over 10 yrs.
roadrunner >>
You want me to limit my response to a broad range, but you're focusing on one PM..Gold... Like tying my hands behind my back. (Not all PM's had a decent return since 2000 - had you invested in Palladium or Rhodium July 2000, you'd still be looking to break even )
I'll give you just a couple of companies in the Energy Sector that have outperformed your precious Gold in the last 10 years...btw there are dozens of them..but the following are free of charge.
SWN---up 3600%
CELG--up 2600%
XTO---up 2000%
Look up the stock symbols to identify the company(s)
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
<< <i>Isn't that what I said?..............
roadrunner >>
In looking back, yes, indeed you did. And thank you very much for the kudo's Roadrunner, it is well appreciated.
I follow the BDI quite closely as the related stocks are tremendous trading vehicles and I agree with Roadrunner in that the bottom may have already been realized. I think the dramatic selloff was largely due to many new ships coming into the market. These ships had been ordered prior to the 2008 meltdown and it takes a little while to build a big boat. The shippers are now taking delivery.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Given the assumption that you don't think of precious metals as an investment, are you saying that one should always be "100% invested" in stocks, for instance?
I follow the BDI quite closely as the related stocks are tremendous trading vehicles and I agree with Roadrunner in that the bottom may have already been realized. I think the dramatic selloff was largely due to many new ships coming into the market. These ships had been ordered prior to the 2008 meltdown and it takes a little while to build a big boat. The shippers are now taking delivery.
Cohodk, I thought that you were concerned of a double dip and the ascendency of the dollar as deflation ramps up. I was prepared to sit tight through it all with pms even though cash might be better. Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention.
Regarding the BDI, are you saying that the shippers would mothball or drydock a bunch of ships before their replacement vessels were done and forego the revenues that could be made if orders were available to be filled? Or was there a dropoff in orders? I have to believe that there was indeed a dropoff of orders.
And now that those ships are built, the question is whether shipbuilding will suffer a decline in future orders, no?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
Cash will always be king ... PM's are just another investment which, btw are purchased with some sort of cash. I'm willing to bet, that if J6P has a choice of getting 10 x $100 bills or 1 oz gold bar, he'd choose the bills. >>
Me, me.... ask ME!
Cohodk, I thought that you were concerned of a double dip and the ascendency of the dollar as deflation ramps up.
I dont believe in a "double dip" as that inplies we came out of the first dip. The "economic activity" we have seen over the last year was purely your tax dollars at work and pent up demand after the world stopped for 3 months at end of 2008. A rise in the dollar would not, IMO, hinder domestic economic growth.
Regarding the BDI, are you saying that the shippers would mothball or drydock a bunch of ships before their replacement vessels were done and forego the revenues that could be made if orders were available to be filled? Or was there a dropoff in orders? I have to believe that there was indeed a dropoff of orders.
I think there was some dropoff in demand, but not much. Most ships coming off charters have been re-contracted at similar rates. So demand has not dramatically fallen. The shippers in general carry lots of debt. This debt needs to be serviced so it is better to contract out the ships even if it is not profitable. Better to cover interest payments than to default.
And now that those ships are built, the question is whether shipbuilding will suffer a decline in future orders, no?
Possibly. Dont buy shipbuilding companies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.