will silver ever have its moonshot?

konsole

I started buying silver back around 2006 and I gotta admit, I got into it because the evidence I saw coupled with my belief led me to believe that the return on investment was gonna be huge. I didn't originally get into is as a way to preserve wealth. I didn't have a hatred of the FRN but I did believe that inflation was going to run out of control by now and so silver or gold was the place to be. So I guess I could say that a big return on investment was almost the entire reason I started stacking. I think Ted Butlers commentaries are what finally sealed the deal on silver for me. I would read his commentaries every week about the extreme manipulation by a few banks and could only imagine what would happen when this manipulation was finally stopped. After several years of not much other then a hickup from silver and watching it tank from $21 down to $8 and then slowly back up to no more then $19, I started to get a little frustrated, especially when I bought silver as a monetary metal and its been treated by nothing other than an industrial metal 95% of the time. I didn't sell when silver got up to $21 and then buy back in when it was $8 because I bought a majority of it when it was in the $17-18 range. Up until recently I thought silver was treated like a monetary metal and would perform very well when the economic news was dire. When I started reading about how the US economy was headed for rough times I thought silver would perform very well because of it, basically move with gold and even better then gold since it was so cheap. Its encouraging that recently the price has held high teens while the dollar has had a huge rally but I can't help but expect the silver price to head anywhere but up as the overall market continues to fall, and I can't see these so-called "manipulations" ending anytime soon along with the supposed investigations yielding any justice. Maybe one day silver will have its moonshot to $50 or $100 or beyond and maybe it will turn out to be a great investment but that could easily be another 5 or 10 years down the road and if I knew it was gonna take that long I probably would have tried other investments in the mean time. I don't plan to sell until the prices get significantly higher but I also hope I'm not waiting another 10 years or more for it.

OPA

Silver may be "precious" with most PM buffs, but it's still an industrial metal. Silver bullion sold directly to the public or used in coinage amounts to only a small % of total sales. Having said that, when economic conditions improve worldwide, you may still see a healthy gain of your investment.

BBQnBLUES

What we need is another "Hunt Brothers" or a "Cash 4 Silver" marketing gimmick.

For now I'm _holding Silver, if nothing else it makes good ballast in my safe. ha

roadrunner

Silver had it's moon shot in 1979 only after going through a tedious bull market for about 15-20 years. It's first up leg was in the early to mid 1960's. So it was only in the last year of that run where things went bonkers and silver multiplied in price about 10X in a single year. And much of the reason for that was the Hunts escalating their silver game to another level by trying to acquire a much larger % physical silver position. There's no way to say that the current silver bull run will end the same way the 1970's did if there are no Hunts around. And like 1979 the FEDs can change the rules on margin, limits on buying contracts, etc. to swing things in the direction they want. But more than likely silver will far outperform gold on the final parabolic blow off in precious metals....similar to 1979. A lot of people will have become frustrated by then and will have dumped their positions in disgust, at exactly the wrong time.

roadrunner

Steve27

I don't expect a "moon shot" which is good, because I will always have more in dollars than silver (or any other precious metal). But this looks about as good as it gets in most investments:

mrearlygold

<< <i>Silver had it's moon shot in 1979 only after going through a tedious bull market for about 15-20 years. It's first up leg was in the early to mid 1960's. So it was only in the last year of that run where things went bonkers and silver multiplied in price about 10X in a single year. And much of the reason for that was the Hunts escalating their silver game to another level by trying to acquire a much larger % physical silver position. There's no way to say that the current silver bull run will end the same way the 1970's did if there are no Hunts around. And like 1979 the FEDs can change the rules on margin, limits on buying contracts, etc. to swing things in the direction they want. But more than likely silver will far outperform gold on the final parabolic blow off in precious metals....similar to 1979. A lot of people will have become frustrated by then and will have dumped their positions in disgust, at exactly the wrong time.

roadrunner >>



I had a customer who came into my place when it was at an all time high telling me "it's going to $100! " and mortgaged his home among other things to buy a lot more........days before it imploded. Oops.

On the other hand, I have 2 customers, one sold everything just days before the coin market imploded and bought long term notes at whatever that crazy high rate was and another customer who also sold it all before the SHTF and put a lot into gem "early" baseball cards.

edmundfitzgerald

<< <i>
I had a customer who came into my place when it was at an all time high telling me "it's going to $100! " and mortgaged his home among other things to buy a lot more........days before it imploded. Oops.. >>



Ouch.

Wolf359

Considering the true economy (and not that Kool-Aid stuff Ben B hands out), I have to believe at some point there will be a mass stampede towards Gold with Silver right behind it. It could start this week, or down the road. The demand part of the equation controls everything. Just remember that a couple billionaires dominated the silver market before. People will learn from the Hunt Brothers mistakes so regardless of what rule changes, etc, happen, so this time the moonshot will not be stopped.

I think we're close though, relative to the time you've waited. Here's a couple recent videos from a guy I enjoy watching, Mike Maloney. One. Two.

jmski52

Maybe one day silver will have its moonshot to $50 or $100 or beyond and maybe it will turn out to be a great investment but that could easily be another 5 or 10 years down the road and if I knew it was gonna take that long I probably would have tried other investments in the mean time. I don't plan to sell until the prices get significantly higher but I also hope I'm not waiting another 10 years or more for it.

I was on the original moonshot, so let me tell you how it goes. In 1974, you notice inflation. In 1975 and 1976, you learn about stagflation and how it puts a drag on everything. You don't have any money to invest, and it's just as well because there aren't any investments that would work anyhow. Obama is much akin to Ford and Carter. When inflation picks up, I expect to see "WIN - Whip Inflation Now" buttons being passed out like candy. In 1977, you can start treading water and gold looks like a way to store wealth and combat that persistant inflation. In 1978, you buy silver. In 1979, you double up and double up again, buying both silver and gold. In early 1980 you dump about half your holdings when most of it is free & clear. In 1981 you dump the rest, still with a great profit. In 1981, you try to get back in a little bit and get burned a little bit. Then, you stay away for the next 17 years, except for a little fractional gold here & there.

Today still feels like early 1975. We haven't seen stagflation run its course. Not by a longshot. The next 5 years will be very interesting, but I wouldn't get in a big hurry. Just keep your head. Ted Butler isn't wrong, but that doesn't mean that anyone will ever be prosecuted for market manipulation. Quite the contrary, in my opinion.

halfhunter

I guess it's all about timing . . . In the last 6 years both gold and silver have tripled in price! AND silver (spot) has doubled just since the fall/winter of '08. Anyone that has bought the dips has done quite well with silver.
From the current price points I can see silver doubling to $36 much easier than Gold doubling to $2400!

At least that's the way this ol'ignorant country boy sees it ! ! !

HH

cladking

Silver will explode someday as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow (except at the south pole).

In the mean time it will break your heart over and over and over.

If this is a problem then it's not the right investment for you. It
might be decades before the explosion and it might be tomorrow.
But it will move so fast it simply won't be possible to get on board
at any price. Every scrap of silver will be held tight by the current
owner to see how high the price will go. It will immediately collapse
at this point but to a level far in excess of anything we've seen.

It's simply mthe nature of silver. Much of it is owned by those who
expect fireworks and the rest is traded quickly by those who could
just as easily be trading corn or beef. Most silver will simply evap-
orate like the crooked banks that print it. Silver demand will explode
when people see that the potential is real.


Consider silver a long term investment. Put money in it when it's
cheap and just try not to enjoy it too much when it's not.


Be very very patient.

OPA

The demand for silver comes primarily from three areas; industrial uses, jewelry and silverware, and photography. These industries represent 90 percent of annual silver consumption. Silver used for coinage and medals amount to about 8% of total production.



<< <i>Most silver will simply evap- orate like the crooked banks that print it. Silver demand will explode when people see that the potential is real. >>



Are you saying that the 8% silver used for investments will control the silver market?

cladking

<< <i>The demand for silver comes primarily from three areas; industrial uses, jewelry and silverware, and photography. These industries represent 90 percent of annual silver consumption. Silver used for coinage and medals amount to about 8% of total production.

Are you saying that the 8% silver used for investments will control the silver market? >>



No.

What I'm saying is that silver is so cheap relative it's scarcity that it can
all be sucked up in hours in a buying panic. This could be caused by the
evaporation of vast percentages of the supply caused by a mere price
perturbation or by spiraling demand and the failure of the markets to
supply metal.

Many things can trigger sanity but waiting for it can require a lot of pat-
ience. But this will require a trigger and the question is exactly what the
trigger will be. Shortages would have near immediate repercussions.

roadrunner

Why silver might not get another moon shot

The author looks at the reduced importance of silver as money over the 600 years and suggests the overall trend in the gold to silver ratio has been a rising one. 600 yr GSR chart included.

Instead of a moon shot....maybe only an orbital mission.

roadrunner

cohodk

<< <i>Why silver might not get another moon shot

The author looks at the reduced importance of silver as money over the 600 years and suggests the overall trend in the gold to silver ratio has been a rising one. 600 yr GSR chart included.

Instead of a moon shot....maybe only an orbital mission.

roadrunner >>



Thats the same chart I posted a month ago.

roadrunner

Thats the same chart I posted a month ago.

The author should have at least given you a footnote.

www.chartsrus.com

Don't forget where this and many other interesting commodity, stock, bond, and ratio charts are located.

roadrunner

jmski52

"Commencing countdown, engines on"................................................

57loaded

<< <i>"Commencing countdown, engines on"................................................ >>



Titan or Saturn V ?

BBN

<< <i>"Commencing countdown, engines on"................................................ >>





Check ignition and may God's love be with you......

OPA

Once again, trying to lift off ... (silver again above $19 ) .... lets wait & see if we have ignition failure again or lift off.

Wolf359

<< <i>Once again, trying to lift off ... (silver again above $19 ) .... lets wait & see if we have ignition failure again or lift off. >>



She goes north this time....

derryb

"will silver ever have its moonshot?"

Hunt is a pretty common name. Maybe there are some brothers out their that can help you out.

1970SilverArt

If silver can close above $19.50, and stay in that $19.50-$20 level, then maybe it will break $20 in a convincing fashion and it will eventually finish at $23.00 (or more) on December 31, 2010. Just my gut feeling talking to me.

cladking

<< <i>Why silver might not get another moon shot

The author looks at the reduced importance of silver as money over the 600 years and suggests the overall trend in the gold to silver ratio has been a rising one. 600 yr GSR chart included.

Instead of a moon shot....maybe only an orbital mission.
>>




Silver's fading importance as a monetary metal is not necessarily a detriment to
a price increase. Certainly it is going to stop silver from reflecting inflation gains
to the same degree gold does. Even gold has lost some importance as a monetary
metal so might never again fully reflect the depreciation of currencies. It will still
have exaggerated increases in inflationary enviroments but will emerge eventually
with losses compared to inmflation.

Silver's real strenght is the fact that it is necessary to the maintenance of human
population and this dependence will increase over time. It will increase substanti-
ally as more and more applications are discovered.

Sooner or later people are going to wake up to the fact that silver is scarcer than
gold in all practical matters and that it is selling for a small fraction of the price. They
will either wake up before a shortage hits and allow planning in advance or they'll
wake up when it's too late. In either case the move will be dramatic. It's already to
point they we are nearly living hand to mouth with silver supplies in the middle of a
recession. There's no magic wand to wave or silver mines to reopen when demand
accelerates because silver is a byproduct of other mining.

OPA

Launch has been delayed due to?

OnlyGoldIsMoney

Will silver ever have its moonshot? IMO the answer is no.

Apart from my physical silver (not for sale) I view silver as a way to make quick money. I'll continue buying the SLV ETF when silver is less than $18.50 and sell when it hits $19.50. Then repeat.

johnny9434

i thought i heard on cnbc that silver would be at $25/oz, we shall see

jmski52

The only question is whether silver is using solid rocket fuel or electromagnetic force propulsion.

OPA

<< <i>The only question is whether silver is using solid rocket fuel or electromagnetic force propulsion. >>



I think they may be using hot air .... a lot of talk, but it can't do the walk ....

"Ground control to Major Tom ... Please turn your ignition switch to on."

roadrunner

With this kind of overall negative sentiment, I'd say $20 in June/July is very possible. This guy thinks so:

Silver moonshot

roadrunner

mhammerman

On the other hand...Silver is bulky and difficult to store. It's a pretty metal and it shines up nicely and blends with other metals very well and has history as a noble metal and cash value but it's bulky and difficult to store. Which would you rather deal with, a handfull of ETF's or 5000 oz of silver oh yeah, you need to dump it right now for cash which would you rather have?

Did the early alchemists try and create silver or gold? Did they haul silver out of South America in the 1600's or gold? Would you rather store silver or gold? Silver's nice and I have a bunch of it and I would love, really love, to see it at $20 but I would never ever bet the farm on silver. I watched people hold $8 silver that they paid a lot more for for about 20 years? Silver is cool but trepidation is as much in order as is optimism. On the other hand, every one should have a shoe box full of silver with duct tape on the edges; silver freaks have a lot more than a shoe box full.

Now, methinks that one of the more interesting ways to play with silver right now may be charting the GSR, making some assumptions, and workin' the KITCO pool account...hummmm, about the same as a few guys going in and sharing a COMEX contract but it's on line and live and you only have to buy as much as you can handle. The GSR is very interesting. Seems like you could get a stream of gold and silver activity on a daily basis on line, put that into some macro routine in XL and have a GSR crawler on the bottom of the screen, live, all the time, London too! But, nope, haven't seen one.

For entertainment purposes only, dyodd.

Baley

<< <i> Maybe one day silver will have its moonshot to $50 or $100 or beyond and maybe it will turn out to be a great investment but that could easily be another 5 or 10 years down the road and if I knew it was gonna take that long I probably would have tried other investments in the mean time. I don't plan to sell until the prices get significantly higher but I also hope I'm not waiting another 10 years or more for it.

I was on the original moonshot, so let me tell you how it goes. In 1974, you notice inflation. In 1975 and 1976, you learn about stagflation and how it puts a drag on everything. You don't have any money to invest, and it's just as well because there aren't any investments that would work anyhow. Obama is much akin to Ford and Carter. When inflation picks up, I expect to see "WIN - Whip Inflation Now" buttons being passed out like candy. In 1977, you can start treading water and gold looks like a way to store wealth and combat that persistant inflation. In 1978, you buy silver. In 1979, you double up and double up again, buying both silver and gold. In early 1980 you dump about half your holdings when most of it is free & clear. In 1981 you dump the rest, still with a great profit. In 1981, you try to get back in a little bit and get burned a little bit. Then, you stay away for the next 17 years, except for a little fractional gold here & there.

Today still feels like early 1975. We haven't seen stagflation run its course. Not by a longshot. The next 5 years will be very interesting, but I wouldn't get in a big hurry. Just keep your head. Ted Butler isn't wrong, but that doesn't mean that anyone will ever be prosecuted for market manipulation. Quite the contrary, in my opinion. >>



that was a good post. what year does it feel like now?