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It looks like gold has decoupled, from everything!

jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
There's been some discussion about gold decoupling from silver in that gold is acting like money while silver reacts to the economy as an industrial commodity.

It also appears that gold is decoupled from the dollar as well and is not moving in an opposite direction as the dollar as it has traditionally done.

It really looks like gold is on it's own.

I think that gold's strange behavior is tied both to inflation and a flight to safety. Isn't it strange that the commentators who usually dis gold as a relic of the past are now talking about it as a flight to safety move?

Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

I knew it would happen.

Comments

  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Can physical decouple from paper gold?
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Can physical decouple from paper gold?

    I suppose it's possible. The best indicators would be a backwardation in the futures complex, well-publicized delivery problems with physical gold off the exchanges, and/or a default by a major ETF.

    We've been led to believe that silver is more likely to decouple from paper than gold is likely to decouple from paper, but who really knows?

    Watch the premiums on physical gold and silver - those are the best indicators of the reality at street level.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Wolf359Wolf359 Posts: 7,656 ✭✭✭
    Yes, Gold is free.

    Silver is not far behind....

    Over $19 now, pop!
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231


    << <i>Can physical decouple from paper gold? >>



    Since more than 99% of all gold traded day to day are simply paper contracts, this is a real possibility....but ONLY if COMEX were to stop their option of being able to take delivery on those contracts. I understand that with the ETFs, there is no option of taking posession of physical. However, with a 3 month COMEX contract, you can actually get your 100 oz at expiration.



    Edited to add: But a true decouple would be a bad thing in my mind. How in the world would we be able to correctly value gold? Keeping up with real world premiums in that situation would be a nightmare for the average collector, and a field day for the bullion dealers!!!
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    My thinking is the ETF's are what holds gold from true worth. That's why they were created to keep a "stock market" control on price.
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231


    << <i>My thinking is the ETF's are what holds gold from true worth. That's why they were created to keep a "stock market" control on price. >>





    Not entirely sure I agree with this. The ETFs have brought in gold buyers who would never have even considered gold as an "investment". The ETFs may actually even have a reverse effect than what you stated!
  • TomohawkTomohawk Posts: 667 ✭✭
    I agree with you, too, GSFan1...but with a little twist: My spin is the ETF's are creating demand, along with all the hype that's on the market to buy gold (I see it everywhere...even on the darn subway!). I attend a fairly small church, and some folks there were talking about a "gold party." After I promptly told them there were MUCH better venues to get rid of their scrap gold (image) , I realized gold is <suffering, enjoying?-you decide> from all the attention, which is making it popular and trendy...and thereby decoupling it from the $ performance.

    Dunno if I'm right...but I sure am blaming the Marketing Beast for many of our ills lately...
    ASE Addict...but oh so poor!
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231
    GSA, I do know this for sure though....once the ETF bubble bursts, it'll be real nice to be sitting on a pile of physical!!!


    Many will deny this claim, and I have no real evidence....but my gut tells me the ETFs are simply smoke and mirrors. If the ETFs have even just 1/10th of the metal on deposit that they have so far sold, i'd be STUNNED!!! Again, others believe everything is on the square with them though. My contention is that nothing like an ETF would be set up without massive leveraging capability.....otherwise there wouldnt be enough money to be scammed.....errrr, I mean "earned".image
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As I've been posting in the trading thread, I don't know how much more bullish you can get... gold has de-coupled from the USD and we're dollars away from a new all time high. If that's not a big neon sign flashing "buy" I don't know what is.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My contention is that nothing like an ETF would be set up without massive leveraging capability.....otherwise there wouldnt be enough money to be scammed.....errrr, I mean "earned". image

    Oh, you mean like "fractional reserve banking"? It never ceases to amaze me how much power is bestowed on the banking cartel, simply out of habit. Habit? Tradition? Necessity? Political Necessity? I forget. Why do banks get our money for free? Maybe I'm senile and simply can't remember.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231


    << <i>My contention is that nothing like an ETF would be set up without massive leveraging capability.....otherwise there wouldnt be enough money to be scammed.....errrr, I mean "earned". image

    Oh, you mean like "fractional reserve banking"? It never ceases to amaze me how much power is bestowed on the banking cartel, simply out of habit. Habit? Tradition? Necessity? Political Necessity? I forget. Why do banks get our money for free? Maybe I'm senile and simply can't remember. >>





    EXACTLY like our banking system. And how much faith do you have in that scam? Much like a casino, its all designed to get your money....thats it.
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gold has de-coupled from the USD

    I think Jmski said he thinks it is de-coupled from the ETFs (Which I didn't see backed up with facts). Gold is not coupled to the dollar any more than the Euro is. So, you can't de-couple it.

    BTW, Gold hitting new highs would make me consider lightening up, rather than loading up, especially if it were to climb to $1300 real quick.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think Jmski said he thinks it is de-coupled from the ETFs (Which I didn't see backed up with facts).

    Scroll up. That's not what jmski said.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TomohawkTomohawk Posts: 667 ✭✭
    Gecko and JMSki...I have to agree with you. Now please don't automatically discount what I'm about to write: I teach Sunday School every week (and preach every so often). From my religious perspective, I see most of the current world's system as a type of enslavement. Credit cards allow you to "get what you want now, pay for it later." The home owner's "American Dream" has us purchasing houses with debt assignments for 30 years (or more, lately). Car loans can go up to 10 years now (because those same cars cost upwards of $30K, $40K, $50K!), yet are no where near as well-made as they were 30 years ago (or so).

    This "Credit" ideal is nothing more than a description of how able you are to go into debt (financial enslavement), all for the sole benefit of "those in power." I believe the evil present in this world constantly bombards people with images of a better house/car/hair/stomach/diamond ring/etc./etc./etc. with the goal to make one unhappy with what one has now...and tantalizingly offers a way in to the jet setter's club-regardless of your current means or ability to pay. And once you buy into the system, it's a devil of a time to get that hook out. Yes, credit properly used CAN be a positive tool; but little to no education is absorbed by most folks who use credit...it's always gotta have it now.

    My personal experience has been disastrous up until about 2 years ago; my wife and I (despite our religious experience!) had kids and lived hi on the credit hog. We had to learn the hard way that you should owe no man money when at all possible, and that you should earn what you have (pay as you go), and be thankful for it (and not be envious for what you don't have!).

    Our financial system DEPENDS on people's willingness to become indebted (enslaved) to financial entities. Perhaps there was a time when the noble ideal of those who could "lend a helping hand" to those who had not ruled financial transactions (hehe, maybe not!); but that ideal has been completely corrupted and now is take as much as you can, and give nothing back (thanks Jack Sparrow).

    My family now has a new ideal: No credit for anything, even housing. If we can't pay cash, we don't need it. Perhaps a bit draconian, but it's more a rejection of the world's system (financial enslavement) than it is utilizing credit in a more proper form. Maybe in a few years, when we have saved at a minimum 50%, we'll buy a house again. But until then I sure will sleep better at night knowing I don't have 10's of thousands of $'s owed to corporations who most definitely DO NOT have my best interest at heart. FWIW
    ASE Addict...but oh so poor!
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231
    Tomohawk.....what do you expect from the citizens of a nation that itself is 12,000 BILLION in debt? While I personally agree with your philosophy, I am aware enough to realize whats happening around me. IMO, whats even worse....far worse....than personal debt of working families is the feeling of "entitlement" that non-working people have. There are millions of people sitting at home right now watching their flat screen TVs that have no worry about how to earn money. The government pays for their housing, their food, subsidizes their kid's daycare (while they sit and watch TV), and then gives them a free cell phone and a monthly cash stipend too boot! Many of these people are not 1st generation welfare recipients, but come from a family of government hand outs. Why should they work as long as you and I are willing to work for them? The standard of living for the UNEMPLOYED in this nation is actually much higher than most worldwide WORKERS who work 60+ hours a week! There is something very fundamentally wrong with this, and most important of all, its not sustainable. Government assistance programs will eventually bankrupt this nation...you can count on that.
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jimski - yes, right I read the post below. Silver and gold are only coupled in our minds anyway. It is useful to see if one if overvalued over another but they are not coupled. Just as GM is not coupled to Toyota (thankfully)

    Tomohawk - nice post. The best thing the housing bust has done is to begin to flush out the massive debt families had built up.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • PreTurbPreTurb Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭
    Tomohawk - nice post. I agree with you regarding debt, so much so that I waited until I was debt-free to bring children into the world.

    However, the existence of debt probably helps productivity... Our society wouldn't be as productive as it is without "debt" to encourage people to work (earn money).

    Government debt, on the other hand, is a tragedy - shame on them for getting into the mess they (we) are in. I think just about everyone agrees that the current path is "unsustainable", which means that there will be a "collapse" eventually. I wonder when it will be and what it will look like...
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231
    "The best thing the housing bust has done is to begin to flush out the massive debt families had built up. "


    And drop that burden right into the responsible family's laps? How was that a good thing? I didnt refinance my home 3 times so I could buy a new car every 4 years, or take that "dream vacation" to Honolulu. Because of the idiots that DID, my home is now worth less money....my government is now deeper in the hole financially, and right around the corner is the head of this ugly beast....inflation that will begin to attack my standard of living. That "flushing of debt" has a very real cost Rick....I hope you see that.
  • BigEBigE Posts: 6,949 ✭✭✭
    I agree with jmski, wait until people try to pick up their contracts and there is nothing there? I believe this has been close to happening, but the buyer was paid off with sufficient $$$$$-----------BigE
    I'm glad I am a Tree
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,677 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gecko, maybe I should say "the only good thing".

    Just like Greece is learning with lowering of debt come a lowering of the grand lifestyle.

    (look on the bright side, if inflation comes back, your house might increase it's value too.)

    I'm just sayin...
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • BigEBigE Posts: 6,949 ✭✭✭
    Looks like silver is no longer an "industrial" metal today, they will have to think of another excuse when they pour on the shortsimage--------BigE
    I'm glad I am a Tree
  • gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231


    << <i>Gecko, maybe I should say "the only good thing".

    Just like Greece is learning with lowering of debt come a lowering of the grand lifestyle.

    (look on the bright side, if inflation comes back, your hous might increase it's value too.)

    I'm just sayin... >>




    If inflation hits everything with an even blow, the relativety negates any "gains" on my home's value. However, so long as my salary at least attempts to keep up in a hyperinflationary scenario, there is a very bright spot....my fixed rate mortgage!image

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