@derryb said:
Face it, the equity market is nothing more than a poker table for those with the money to play. Where would SP500 be without the infusion of massive amounts of dollars into the economy? No coincidence that the unprecedented money printing since 2008 drove most all stock indexes sky high.
It would be at the same level, more or less.
If you think MSFT's business model doesn't work under a different monetary regime.....
And let's not forget the affect 11million+ illegal immigrants have on the US job market and on the economy. Keep in mind that those jobs pay low because the people holding them will accept low pay. After all, that is why they get hired.
Can't wait till those 11 million job vacancies get filled by honest hard working 'Mericans at $20/hrs with benefits.
Not much left after taxes,partial health insurance cost,high rent, food. Okay I guess if one wishes to just survive or to be just an average, ordinary American.
Point here is that to replace those "illegals", companies will have to offer much higher wages and benefits. These higher costs would be passed to the consumer--YOU.
If you wanted lower prices, you ain't gonna get them.
Is gold $3000 too low?
The passing on of higher costs to the consumer would be contingent on what that consumer specifically consumes.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
No CC debt for me up here in The Commonweath, in fact no debt period. 1 day remaining in 2024 and the net worth is sitting at an increase of 28.69%, my 2nd best year yet (+33.54% in 2021). BOOMIN for sure. RGDS!
All physical gold is worth more than spot. Spot is the price of paper futures contracts from which premiums are added for the real McCoy. As long as this formula is followed the price of physical gold really begins with bullion bankers who have repeatedly settled cases with the department of justice for price rigging.
@blitzdude said:
I could care less about the futures price. I live and transact my Au in the real/spot world. Looks like $2800 currently. RGDS!
LOL. You obviously don't realize that the price of your real gold is determined by the futures price. The premiums you pay, or sell for, are simply added to the spot price. Spot price is determined by the futures market.
If you hold gold, the futures price of gold matters a whole, whole, whole lot.
@blitzdude said:
I could care less about the futures price. I live and transact my Au in the real/spot world. Looks like $2800 currently. RGDS!
LOL. You obviously don't realize that the price of your real gold is determined by the futures price. The premiums you pay, or sell for, are simply added to the spot price. Spot price is determined by the futures market.
If you hold gold, the futures price of gold matters a whole, whole, whole lot.
The ATH price for gold is measured at spot price not the futures price. It really shouldn't be that hard to understand. THKS!
@blitzdude said:
I could care less about the futures price. I live and transact my Au in the real/spot world. Looks like $2800 currently. RGDS!
LOL. You obviously don't realize that the price of your real gold is determined by the futures price. The premiums you pay, or sell for, are simply added to the spot price. Spot price is determined by the futures market.
If you hold gold, the futures price of gold matters a whole, whole, whole lot.
The ATH price for gold is measured at spot price not the futures price. It really shouldn't be that hard to understand. THKS!
For the purposes of this thread which I started, I consider the near month futures contract price to be just as valid. The futures are used by industrial entities with very little time premium is a reliable price point.
@cohodk said:
I think it hit $4200 in $CAD tonight.
$5000 in $NZD.
20,000 in Chinese Remminbi.
and 0.0287 in bitcoin
in 2010 it took 10,000 bitcoin (now worth billions) to buy two pizzas. got bitcoin?
How much is that in tulip bulbs?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
$3,000 seems inevitable, you wonder how much media attention there will be. $1,000 and $2,000 milestones got drowned out by the Financial Crisis post-shock effects and Covid, respectively.
$3,000 by 2030 was clearly too conservative but I'll stick to my $5,000 by 2035 prediction.....for now.
$3,000 seems inevitable, you wonder how much media attention there will be. $1,000 and $2,000 milestones got drowned out by the Financial Crisis post-shock effects and Covid, respectively.
$3,000 by 2030 was clearly too conservative but I'll stick to my $5,000 by 2035 prediction.....for now.
It would have to hit $5K to make a news cycle today with so much going on. Maybe if we buy New Zealand with Gold or something like that.
Gold is currently in the 5th wave of a major III that began in August 2018. Targets the $3100-$3200 range. I suspect this should run out of gas by late May to early June (6/2/25 on the ECM). Major wave IV follows and will take some time to bring gold back down much like we saw in the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Probably a similar "sharp" (ie deep) correction that takes relatively little time vs. the 6-7 years it took to rise to here. The 2008 correction only lasted 7-8 months. It was a roller coaster ride. After that wave IV correction comes the final major Wave V into 2028.
Next minor ECM correction date is 6/30/26. So gold will be facing headwinds for a year from June 2025-June 2026. Then more cycling into June 2027. Gold's next strongest phase should be from June 2027 to August 2028. August 2028 should produce the next major high similar to March 2009 - Sept 2011. The entire 1999-2011 gold run pushed it up 7.6x. Current run is from 2015 to 2028 give or take with a 2.8x rise so far. Complete resets in governments and currencies in the 2028-2033 range can allow gold to move upwards for longer....but the ECM model says it runs out of gas by June 2028.
The Armstrong Economic Confidence model (ie capital flows and faith in governments) shows the next major "confidence" bottom in August 2028.....when gold should be at its strongest, and the stock/bond/RE markets at their weakest.....the 78 year Real Estate cycle doesn't end until 2033. ECM has been forecasting a major bottoming and the rest of the entire world's capital flow/confidence to 2032/2033. Lots of capital destruction to occur in the 2027-2032 period....along with a World War Cycle (2026-2028 or longer) sitting on type of it. No idea how high gold goes by the 2033 "reset".....it could peak in 2028 and take years to recover...... or have a secondary peak (higher or lower) by 2030-2032. A lot depends on what govts come up with as a way to better secure the monetary and economic systems coming out of the 2030-2033 reset period. Gold could play a bigger role than today or a much less important role. For now, it's headed for a major peak by summer 2028.....I'm watching.
ECM has predicted the last few major confidence bottoms for gold pretty close. It's been dead on predicting gold for over 20 yrs. The forecasted gold highs of 2011.45 and 2020.05 were very close....as was the major low of 2015.75. Next major 8.6 yr highs are 2028.65 and 2037.25.
Regarding the upcoming "deep" correction this summer, does.it look like 2008 decline of approx 30%, or more like a quicker drop such as in 2006 of approx 20%?
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
@roadrunner said:
Gold is currently in the 5th wave of a major III that began in August 2018.
RR, is that Elliot Wave analysis ?
My old friend....Bob Prechter....great guy. And Richard Russell (R.I.P.) who always loved gold, no matter what. Was recommending Franco-Nevada in the 1980's !!
@ProofCollection said:
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
I mentioned the Elliot Wave analysis to bring the current move up to a halt. And it fits with Armstrong's ECM peak of June 2025. There are many different ways of counting the waves. I don't get too caught up in it because wave extensions can drive you nuts. I do tend to hang my hat on tried and true TA chart forms like major H&S break outs, like we witnessed in gold when the previous $1923 high was taken out. The current H&S breakout in gold points to that $3100-$3200. Over the past 25 yrs gold has followed the basic TA rules pretty well.
I combine the Armstrong ECM capital flows/business confidence model with basic TA, and some EW theory. I have found that for gold, the ECM waves are excellent for defining major lows and highs, especially the ones at 4.3 and 8.6 yrs. I also used to factor in the SKI analysis (see that on 321gold.com) which has a unique way of monitoring gold stocks since 1974 with a series of USERX moving averages and thresh holds. Unfortunately Jeff at SKI went dark on 19 August 2024...no public updates since then. He was dealing with cancer prior to that. And I believed he passed away as there's now a Tribute SKI site on line as of Oct 2024. Jeff Kern called the turning points in gold stocks to a tee from 2008-2024 when I tracked him....first starting off on Kitco. It was uncanny. I miss his inputs. But I learned the basics of his system very well so I can still employ the concepts of his various moving averages to mark buying and/or selling points.
I've found that Armstrong's ECM and Jeff Kern's SKI were the most reliable and accurate methods of identifying important or major gold turning points. Elliot Waves and other methods often had errors. But when combined with the ECM and SKI, the EW theory worked a lot better. Overlaying a simplified Ichimoku cloud and chandelier exit line on the GDX/USERX chart made it even better to note resistance and support points. I'd rather rely on that than just EW's. The SKI system had some excellent chart topping and bottoming "run" patterns when mini-mania's were coming to an end.
@roadrunner said:
Gold is currently in the 5th wave of a major III that began in August 2018.
RR, is that Elliot Wave analysis ?
My old friend....Bob Prechter....great guy. And Richard Russell (R.I.P.) who always loved gold, no matter what. Was recommending Franco-Nevada in the 1980's !!
yeah. Prechter was on the wrong side of the gold market on the move up after 2008. As I recall, he expected gold to
dip all the way back to $200-$400 again following the 2008 crash. Nope. Gold took off from the Oct 2008 bottom of around $675 and went to $1225 by November 2009.....eventually getting to $1923 by Sept 2011. I don't know if Bob after changed his analysis after his missed 2008 bottom call..........but I never paid a bit of attention to any of his calls after that. It was actually Jim Sinclair who got me on the gold train in early 2004 after I read his article on the derivative's bomb sitting in the major banks. He was calling for $1200 gold then......5-6 years before it happened. He then upped his $1200 call to $1675 when $1200 was broken......and was vindicated on that in summer 2011. On the other side, he totally failed to predict or warn of the 50% correction that would ensue from 2012-2015. Like Prechter, Sinclair lost me from that point on. And no doubt Sinclair knew exactly that gold was in the toilet for 3-4 yrs but probably felt it was better to protect his Tan Range gold mine assets and not say anything negative about gold during the bottoming process in Major Wave II (Tan Range is now TRX and still trading for 32c/share). Jim, we loved you on the way up....but you sure stunk it up on the way down. LOL.
But ECM, SKI and other systems have been working for 40-50 yrs. Richard Russel was always a good read as were several others who consistently posted on 321gold.com (Bob Hoye, P. Radomski, Peter DeGraaf, Peter Grandich, Clive Maund, David Nichols). Fortunately, all that stuff is archived and you can still read all the articles going back 20 years.
I followed Richard Russell fairly closely during the '70s & 80's and into the 90's, along with Jim Sinclair until his death. I have all of Harry Browne's early books and I never put much stock into Bob Prechter's predictions. Right now, I pay some attention to Martin Armstrong, Jim Rickards, Peter Grandich, Gregory Mannarino and Bill Holter - all of whom have considerable market experience.
I'm finding Arcadia Economics and Liberty & Finance on youtube to be great resources.
I sold some gold today for an upcoming special project, and now I have to figure out how to offset some of those fairly nice gains. I will be selling lots of miscellaneous odds & ends, even at a loss - trying to offset some of the gains while recouping some additional capital. Not a bad problem to have.
I believe in about 80% fundamentals and maybe about 20% technical analysis. I am pretty skeptical of whiz-bang market aces who think that they can call the market. Everybody misses occasionally and I think it's a mistake to hop in & out picking up small change from dozens of nit-picky trades. If I have conviction about my assessment of the market, I don't worry about timing.
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
What happened to Dave Nichols ? I presume he passed away....I was a subscriber to his newsletter....the frequency dropped from a few a week to once a week then every few weeks...then nothing.
@ProofCollection said:
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will >be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
Gold can move up when the dollar is strong. It's a hurdle, but has happened many times.
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Then you should take ALL your money and short silver as much as you can (COMEX and/or SLV).
Do it now.
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Then you should take ALL your money and short silver as much as you can (COMEX and/or SLV).
Do it now.
.
Cashed out the SLV. Added a bit of physical with the paper profits. RGDS!
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Then you should take ALL your money and short silver as much as you can (COMEX and/or SLV).
Do it now.
.
Cashed out the SLV. Added a bit of physical with the paper profits. RGDS!
.
Why would you buy any if you really thought the price was going down ?
@ProofCollection said:
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
I mentioned the Elliot Wave analysis to bring the current move up to a halt. And it fits with Armstrong's ECM peak of June 2025. There are many different ways of counting the waves. I don't get too caught up in it because wave extensions can drive you nuts. I do tend to hang my hat on tried and true TA chart forms like major H&S break outs, like we witnessed in gold when the previous $1923 high was taken out. The current H&S breakout in gold points to that $3100-$3200. Over the past 25 yrs gold has followed the basic TA rules pretty well.
I combine the Armstrong ECM capital flows/business confidence model with basic TA, and some EW theory. I have found that for gold, the ECM waves are excellent for defining major lows and highs, especially the ones at 4.3 and 8.6 yrs. I also used to factor in the SKI analysis (see that on 321gold.com) which has a unique way of monitoring gold stocks since 1974 with a series of USERX moving averages and thresh holds. Unfortunately Jeff at SKI went dark on 19 August 2024...no public updates since then. He was dealing with cancer prior to that. And I believed he passed away as there's now a Tribute SKI site on line as of Oct 2024. Jeff Kern called the turning points in gold stocks to a tee from 2008-2024 when I tracked him....first starting off on Kitco. It was uncanny. I miss his inputs. But I learned the basics of his system very well so I can still employ the concepts of his various moving averages to mark buying and/or selling points.
I've found that Armstrong's ECM and Jeff Kern's SKI were the most reliable and accurate methods of identifying important or major gold turning points. Elliot Waves and other methods often had errors. But when combined with the ECM and SKI, the EW theory worked a lot better. Overlaying a simplified Ichimoku cloud and chandelier exit line on the GDX/USERX chart made it even better to note resistance and support points. I'd rather rely on that than just EW's. The SKI system had some excellent chart topping and bottoming "run" patterns when mini-mania's were coming to an end.
Actually I was really sloppy with my wording. We haven't necessarily topped out at $2900 but the move is almost exhausted. Still we could see some over performance to $3k or a bit higher, but with a ~45% gain in 1 year the move is almost exhausted.
@ProofCollection said:
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will >be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
Gold can move up when the dollar is strong. It's a hurdle, but has happened many times.
@roadrunner said:
Gold is currently in the 5th wave of a major III that began in August 2018. Targets the $3100-$3200 range. I suspect this should run out of gas by late May to early June (6/2/25 on the ECM). Major wave IV follows and will take some time to bring gold back down much like we saw in the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Probably a similar "sharp" (ie deep) correction that takes relatively little time vs. the 6-7 years it took to rise to here. The 2008 correction only lasted 7-8 months. It was a roller coaster ride. After that wave IV correction comes the final major Wave V into 2028.
Next minor ECM correction date is 6/30/26. So gold will be facing headwinds for a year from June 2025-June 2026. Then more cycling into June 2027. Gold's next strongest phase should be from June 2027 to August 2028. August 2028 should produce the next major high similar to March 2009 - Sept 2011. The entire 1999-2011 gold run pushed it up 7.6x. Current run is from 2015 to 2028 give or take with a 2.8x rise so far. Complete resets in governments and currencies in the 2028-2033 range can allow gold to move upwards for longer....but the ECM model says it runs out of gas by June 2028.
The Armstrong Economic Confidence model (ie capital flows and faith in governments) shows the next major "confidence" bottom in August 2028.....when gold should be at its strongest, and the stock/bond/RE markets at their weakest.....the 78 year Real Estate cycle doesn't end until 2033. ECM has been forecasting a major bottoming and the rest of the entire world's capital flow/confidence to 2032/2033. Lots of capital destruction to occur in the 2027-2032 period....along with a World War Cycle (2026-2028 or longer) sitting on type of it. No idea how high gold goes by the 2033 "reset".....it could peak in 2028 and take years to recover...... or have a secondary peak (higher or lower) by 2030-2032. A lot depends on what govts come up with as a way to better secure the monetary and economic systems coming out of the 2030-2033 reset period. Gold could play a bigger role than today or a much less important role. For now, it's headed for a major peak by summer 2028.....I'm watching.
ECM has predicted the last few major confidence bottoms for gold pretty close. It's been dead on predicting gold for over 20 yrs. The forecasted gold highs of 2011.45 and 2020.05 were very close....as was the major low of 2015.75. Next major 8.6 yr highs are 2028.65 and 2037.25.
Hey roadrunner, just wanted to chime in and say how nice it is to see your username again. Cheers!
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Since your August 19 2022 prediction, not only did silver not go down to $15, it has been over $20 most of the time, and now over $30.
So your new prediction doesn't have a lot of credibility.
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Since your August 19 2022 prediction, not only did silver not go down to $15, it has been over $20 most of the time, and now over $30.
So your new prediction doesn't have a lot of credibility.
.
Dude, I've been in and out of gutter 100 times since August 2022. Get with the program or get left in the dust. THKS!
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Since your August 19 2022 prediction, not only did silver not go down to $15, it has been over $20 most of the time, and now over $30.
So your new prediction doesn't have a lot of credibility.
Comments
more money chasing the same number of shares
The future is always written silently in the price action.
We eat out from time to time. Always inquire with the server if this is their career. Some respond> @cohodk said:
The passing on of higher costs to the consumer would be contingent on what that consumer specifically consumes.
BOOMIN'!!!!
https://thecapitalist.com/us-credit-card-debt-2024/
No CC debt for me up here in The Commonweath, in fact no debt period. 1 day remaining in 2024 and the net worth is sitting at an increase of 28.69%, my 2nd best year yet (+33.54% in 2021). BOOMIN for sure. RGDS!
Verily....
One 'good' thing about inflation... it inflates our net worth also!
LOL, which households?
Apparently yours.
Only if you have assets, if you have nothing you just fall further behind.
and debt puts you even further behind
New ATH today! ($2850+)
http://ProofCollection.Net
The futures price you quote is $50+ above the spot price.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
All physical gold is worth more than spot. Spot is the price of paper futures contracts from which premiums are added for the real McCoy. As long as this formula is followed the price of physical gold really begins with bullion bankers who have repeatedly settled cases with the department of justice for price rigging.
For the purposes of this thread, if gold is trading in paper or physical at any widely-used quoted market price, it counts.
http://ProofCollection.Net
The gold price is $3,008.20 right now for the widely used Comex GCM2026 June 2026 contract.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Gold to decline substantially because I just bought some...
I could care less about the futures price. I live and transact my Au in the real/spot world. Looks like $2800 currently. RGDS!
LOL. You obviously don't realize that the price of your real gold is determined by the futures price. The premiums you pay, or sell for, are simply added to the spot price. Spot price is determined by the futures market.
If you hold gold, the futures price of gold matters a whole, whole, whole lot.
The ATH price for gold is measured at spot price not the futures price. It really shouldn't be that hard to understand. THKS!
Futures price of a precious metal heavily influences its spot price. Do your homework.
For the purposes of this thread which I started, I consider the near month futures contract price to be just as valid. The futures are used by industrial entities with very little time premium is a reliable price point.
http://ProofCollection.Net
I think it hit $4200 in $CAD tonight.
$5000 in $NZD.
20,000 in Chinese Remminbi.
and 0.0287 in bitcoin
in 2010 it took 10,000 bitcoin (now worth billions) to buy two pizzas. got bitcoin?
I will sell you two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin.
How much is that in tulip bulbs?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Tulips are so 17th century. The smart money went to beanie babies and then rolled to Pokemon cards.
The nearest futures contract is widely quoted because (1) it's more liquid than the spot price (2) gold mining companies can hedge at that rate.
I'm seeing 180,00 contracts for April open interest but nothing for Comex 2026 June.
$2,900 on the COMEX earlier today.
$3,000 seems inevitable, you wonder how much media attention there will be. $1,000 and $2,000 milestones got drowned out by the Financial Crisis post-shock effects and Covid, respectively.
$3,000 by 2030 was clearly too conservative but I'll stick to my $5,000 by 2035 prediction.....for now.
It would have to hit $5K to make a news cycle today with so much going on. Maybe if we buy New Zealand with Gold or something like that.
Gold is currently in the 5th wave of a major III that began in August 2018. Targets the $3100-$3200 range. I suspect this should run out of gas by late May to early June (6/2/25 on the ECM). Major wave IV follows and will take some time to bring gold back down much like we saw in the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Probably a similar "sharp" (ie deep) correction that takes relatively little time vs. the 6-7 years it took to rise to here. The 2008 correction only lasted 7-8 months. It was a roller coaster ride. After that wave IV correction comes the final major Wave V into 2028.
Next minor ECM correction date is 6/30/26. So gold will be facing headwinds for a year from June 2025-June 2026. Then more cycling into June 2027. Gold's next strongest phase should be from June 2027 to August 2028. August 2028 should produce the next major high similar to March 2009 - Sept 2011. The entire 1999-2011 gold run pushed it up 7.6x. Current run is from 2015 to 2028 give or take with a 2.8x rise so far. Complete resets in governments and currencies in the 2028-2033 range can allow gold to move upwards for longer....but the ECM model says it runs out of gas by June 2028.
The Armstrong Economic Confidence model (ie capital flows and faith in governments) shows the next major "confidence" bottom in August 2028.....when gold should be at its strongest, and the stock/bond/RE markets at their weakest.....the 78 year Real Estate cycle doesn't end until 2033. ECM has been forecasting a major bottoming and the rest of the entire world's capital flow/confidence to 2032/2033. Lots of capital destruction to occur in the 2027-2032 period....along with a World War Cycle (2026-2028 or longer) sitting on type of it. No idea how high gold goes by the 2033 "reset".....it could peak in 2028 and take years to recover...... or have a secondary peak (higher or lower) by 2030-2032. A lot depends on what govts come up with as a way to better secure the monetary and economic systems coming out of the 2030-2033 reset period. Gold could play a bigger role than today or a much less important role. For now, it's headed for a major peak by summer 2028.....I'm watching.
ECM has predicted the last few major confidence bottoms for gold pretty close. It's been dead on predicting gold for over 20 yrs. The forecasted gold highs of 2011.45 and 2020.05 were very close....as was the major low of 2015.75. Next major 8.6 yr highs are 2028.65 and 2037.25.
Welcome back RR.
Regarding the upcoming "deep" correction this summer, does.it look like 2008 decline of approx 30%, or more like a quicker drop such as in 2006 of approx 20%?
My TA shows different. I think we've topped out here around $2900. USD is going to keep getting stronger and will be too much of a headwind for gold to go too much further.
http://ProofCollection.Net
RR, is that Elliot Wave analysis ?
My old friend....Bob Prechter....great guy. And Richard Russell (R.I.P.) who always loved gold, no matter what. Was recommending Franco-Nevada in the 1980's !!
I mentioned the Elliot Wave analysis to bring the current move up to a halt. And it fits with Armstrong's ECM peak of June 2025. There are many different ways of counting the waves. I don't get too caught up in it because wave extensions can drive you nuts. I do tend to hang my hat on tried and true TA chart forms like major H&S break outs, like we witnessed in gold when the previous $1923 high was taken out. The current H&S breakout in gold points to that $3100-$3200. Over the past 25 yrs gold has followed the basic TA rules pretty well.
I combine the Armstrong ECM capital flows/business confidence model with basic TA, and some EW theory. I have found that for gold, the ECM waves are excellent for defining major lows and highs, especially the ones at 4.3 and 8.6 yrs. I also used to factor in the SKI analysis (see that on 321gold.com) which has a unique way of monitoring gold stocks since 1974 with a series of USERX moving averages and thresh holds. Unfortunately Jeff at SKI went dark on 19 August 2024...no public updates since then. He was dealing with cancer prior to that. And I believed he passed away as there's now a Tribute SKI site on line as of Oct 2024. Jeff Kern called the turning points in gold stocks to a tee from 2008-2024 when I tracked him....first starting off on Kitco. It was uncanny. I miss his inputs. But I learned the basics of his system very well so I can still employ the concepts of his various moving averages to mark buying and/or selling points.
I've found that Armstrong's ECM and Jeff Kern's SKI were the most reliable and accurate methods of identifying important or major gold turning points. Elliot Waves and other methods often had errors. But when combined with the ECM and SKI, the EW theory worked a lot better. Overlaying a simplified Ichimoku cloud and chandelier exit line on the GDX/USERX chart made it even better to note resistance and support points. I'd rather rely on that than just EW's. The SKI system had some excellent chart topping and bottoming "run" patterns when mini-mania's were coming to an end.
321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
yeah. Prechter was on the wrong side of the gold market on the move up after 2008. As I recall, he expected gold to
dip all the way back to $200-$400 again following the 2008 crash. Nope. Gold took off from the Oct 2008 bottom of around $675 and went to $1225 by November 2009.....eventually getting to $1923 by Sept 2011. I don't know if Bob after changed his analysis after his missed 2008 bottom call..........but I never paid a bit of attention to any of his calls after that. It was actually Jim Sinclair who got me on the gold train in early 2004 after I read his article on the derivative's bomb sitting in the major banks. He was calling for $1200 gold then......5-6 years before it happened. He then upped his $1200 call to $1675 when $1200 was broken......and was vindicated on that in summer 2011. On the other side, he totally failed to predict or warn of the 50% correction that would ensue from 2012-2015. Like Prechter, Sinclair lost me from that point on. And no doubt Sinclair knew exactly that gold was in the toilet for 3-4 yrs but probably felt it was better to protect his Tan Range gold mine assets and not say anything negative about gold during the bottoming process in Major Wave II (Tan Range is now TRX and still trading for 32c/share). Jim, we loved you on the way up....but you sure stunk it up on the way down. LOL.
But ECM, SKI and other systems have been working for 40-50 yrs. Richard Russel was always a good read as were several others who consistently posted on 321gold.com (Bob Hoye, P. Radomski, Peter DeGraaf, Peter Grandich, Clive Maund, David Nichols). Fortunately, all that stuff is archived and you can still read all the articles going back 20 years.
I followed Richard Russell fairly closely during the '70s & 80's and into the 90's, along with Jim Sinclair until his death. I have all of Harry Browne's early books and I never put much stock into Bob Prechter's predictions. Right now, I pay some attention to Martin Armstrong, Jim Rickards, Peter Grandich, Gregory Mannarino and Bill Holter - all of whom have considerable market experience.
I'm finding Arcadia Economics and Liberty & Finance on youtube to be great resources.
I sold some gold today for an upcoming special project, and now I have to figure out how to offset some of those fairly nice gains. I will be selling lots of miscellaneous odds & ends, even at a loss - trying to offset some of the gains while recouping some additional capital. Not a bad problem to have.
I believe in about 80% fundamentals and maybe about 20% technical analysis. I am pretty skeptical of whiz-bang market aces who think that they can call the market. Everybody misses occasionally and I think it's a mistake to hop in & out picking up small change from dozens of nit-picky trades. If I have conviction about my assessment of the market, I don't worry about timing.
Gold still has a way to go, and silver will leave people's jaws hanging when it runs up. You may not have heard it here first, but you're hearing it again right now.
I knew it would happen.
What happened to Dave Nichols ? I presume he passed away....I was a subscriber to his newsletter....the frequency dropped from a few a week to once a week then every few weeks...then nothing.
I never saw an obit.
Gold can move up when the dollar is strong. It's a hurdle, but has happened many times.
Check out Ray Dalio's interview in BARRON's from February 3rd. Good reading even if he might be too bearish/apocalpytic.
Gutter is soon to be heading right back to where it came from. Da gutter. THKS!
.
Then you should take ALL your money and short silver as much as you can (COMEX and/or SLV).
Do it now.
.
Cashed out the SLV. Added a bit of physical with the paper profits.
RGDS!
.
Why would you buy any if you really thought the price was going down ?
.
Actually I was really sloppy with my wording. We haven't necessarily topped out at $2900 but the move is almost exhausted. Still we could see some over performance to $3k or a bit higher, but with a ~45% gain in 1 year the move is almost exhausted.
True.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Hey roadrunner, just wanted to chime in and say how nice it is to see your username again. Cheers!
.
.
Since your August 19 2022 prediction, not only did silver not go down to $15, it has been over $20 most of the time, and now over $30.
So your new prediction doesn't have a lot of credibility.
.
Dude, I've been in and out of gutter 100 times since August 2022. Get with the program or get left in the dust. THKS!
You're basically talking to Cougar's 2nd profile.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Just a hunch, but I think the Ukraine war will be ending soon. Although I'm not about to try and predict an exact time table.
If/when it does end, I wonder how that will affect the price of gold? As the world scene would become a lot more stable.