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grote15grote15 Posts: 29,696 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Can you please let the board know who you like for the Derby Saturday? I want to know who to omit from my trifecta box plays. Thanks in advance!


Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.

Comments

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,035 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Whadayathink, you're gonna hit a 3K tri every year in the Derby? image
  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,696 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Whadayathink, you're gonna hit a 3K tri every year in the Derby?

    LOL, Met fans still talk about 1986 like it was last week, so for Jerry that hit was just like yesterday..image

    Edit: It was 3,600..image


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • edmundfitzgeraldedmundfitzgerald Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
    Because of Canada's success winning the Olympic gold, I'll go with Sidney's Candy.

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,035 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Whadayathink, you're gonna hit a 3K tri every year in the Derby?

    LOL, Met fans still talk about 1986 like it was last week, so for Jerry that hit was just like yesterday..image

    Edit: It was 3,600..image >>



    The Eagles last won an NFL championship around 50 years ago, but considering that planet Earth is around 4 billion years old, geologically speaking, 50 years is not that long ago. LOL
  • metsfanmetsfan Posts: 834
    The Derby looks hard to pick this year. The favorites have the worst posts lookin At Lucky from the 1 post and Sidney's Candy from 20. Hard to throw any horse, after what happened with Summer Bird last year.
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  • AkbarCloneAkbarClone Posts: 2,476 ✭✭✭
    Throw some cash on Dublin. 12-1 would be a pretty good payback.

    Legal Disclaimer: Suggested pick is for entertainment purposes only.
    I collect Vintage Cards, Commemorative Sets, and way too many vintage and modern player collections in Baseball (180 players), Football (175 players), and Basketball (87 players). Also have a Dallas Cowboy team collection.
  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,035 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm putting my money on Wachovia to win. image
  • ConnecticoinConnecticoin Posts: 12,868 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Because of Canada's success winning the Olympic gold, I'll go with Sidney's Candy. >>



    Sidney's Candy will come in 4th. Count on it!
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  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,035 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Because of Canada's success winning the Olympic gold, I'll go with Sidney's Candy. >>



    Sidney's Candy will come in 4th. Count on it! >>



    So you're sayin' play an all-all-all-Sidney's Candy superfecta.
  • ocon4008ocon4008 Posts: 1,703
    Here's the full order of finish for the 2010 Kentucky Derby:

    1. Super Saver
    2. Ice Box
    3. Paddy O'Prado
    4. Make Music for Me
    5. Noble's Promise
    6. Lookin At Lucky
    7. Dublin
    8. Stately Victor
    9. Mission Impazible
    10. Devil May Care
    11. American Lion
    12. Jackson Bend
    13. Discreetly Mine
    14. Dean's Kitten
    15. Conveyance
    16. Homeboykris
    17. Sidney's Candy
    18. Line of David
    19. Awesome Act
    20. Backtalk

    tough race.
  • swartz1swartz1 Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭
    I am not a HUGE bettor...

    but someone has to explain to me why the exacta seemed so weak...

    20 horse field, favorite didnt come in first, had to be a big pool???

    did everyone do a 4 - all ? for $19

    let me know your thoughts...

    image


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  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,035 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I am not a HUGE bettor...

    but someone has to explain to me why the exacta seemed so weak...

    20 horse field, favorite didnt come in first, had to be a big pool???

    did everyone do a 4 - all ? for $19

    let me know your thoughts...

    image >>




    I just looked at it - You're right, the exacta was weak. Certainly it's not like a "harness race exacta" whereby stiffing horses in my opinion is basically a common occurrence. It's a given that the Kentucky Derby was "cleanly" run, so a logical explanation would be someone or a few people played this 4/2 cold for a lot of money. Could have also been a lot of 4/alls like you said, which was of course basically Borel/alls. I don't know if the other 4/alls were skewed this way or not, but even with a large Derby pool, if there is just say one extra 10K cold exacta, it can skew the payout.

    Doing some very quick math in which I didn't check the figures at all, it's just as an example. Say the exacta pool was $5,000,000 and with a 25% takeout the winning bettors receive $3,750,000 - the exacta paid $152.40 for $2 and it really should have paid around $200.00. At say $150 this means there were 25,000 winning $2 tickets. If it would have paid $200, there would have been 18,750 winning $2 tickets...a difference of 6,250 winning tickets. So you can see whereby one person playing say a cold 4/2 exacta for say 10K adds an extra 5,000 $2 winning tickets into the pool which lowers the payout. Lots of money floating around on Derby day...A 10K bet to some of those rich folks is peanuts.

    Something such as that likely accounted for the weak exacta. Of course the exacta could have paid $250 with the variance skewed the other way. There are variances in exacta payouts all the time even in cleanly run races, but with a pool this size, normally these variances would even out to where it should have paid around $200. I think with the Borel horse on top in the exacta, there were some large exacta plays with 4 on top including the 4/2 which explains the weak payout.

    Perhaps you're implying a possible scenario similar to that pick-6 insider tote cheating scandal a few years back in the Breedes Cup? That would be a possibility, but I doubt it based on what I stated.

    You hit a nice exacta, but normally you should have gotten around $25 more for the dollar bet.
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