Short Career Guys-Bill James
markj111
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in Sports Talk
Bill James has written a mult-part series on short careers and the HOF. I found it to be quite interesting. His site billjamesonline.com is by subscription, but is cheap (3.00/month). I highly recommend it. The intro to the first article is below.
The first two things I should say here are that:
1) The hard part of this is drawing a line, and saying “I ain’t going to do no more”, and
2) That I honestly don’t know how this is going to come out.
That seems a necessary condition of the exercise, that I should be feeling my way blindly along with the rest of you.
There are certain players from the past who weave their way persistently into our discussions, no matter what it is that we start talking about—Don Mattingly and Dick Allen, Roger Maris and Joe Jackson, Sandy Koufax and Jim Ray Hart. I started to do a short little project to compare one of these players to another. Initially I was going to do five players: Mattingly, Tony Oliva, Koufax, Rico Carty and Nomar Garciaparra. I thought it would be interesting to compare one of those guys to another, and say, “OK, which of these guys really has the best argument to be in the Hall of Fame?” Which has an argument that maybe he shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame, but he would be if he hadn’t gotten hurt?
The first two things I should say here are that:
1) The hard part of this is drawing a line, and saying “I ain’t going to do no more”, and
2) That I honestly don’t know how this is going to come out.
That seems a necessary condition of the exercise, that I should be feeling my way blindly along with the rest of you.
There are certain players from the past who weave their way persistently into our discussions, no matter what it is that we start talking about—Don Mattingly and Dick Allen, Roger Maris and Joe Jackson, Sandy Koufax and Jim Ray Hart. I started to do a short little project to compare one of these players to another. Initially I was going to do five players: Mattingly, Tony Oliva, Koufax, Rico Carty and Nomar Garciaparra. I thought it would be interesting to compare one of those guys to another, and say, “OK, which of these guys really has the best argument to be in the Hall of Fame?” Which has an argument that maybe he shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame, but he would be if he hadn’t gotten hurt?
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<< <i>Mattingly has gained steam again now that the "steroid" group is here....you cant have a HOF void for 15 years can we? some players will need to get in, and who better than the GREAT MATTINGLY? >>
The guys are all still juiced and the hall is already filled with mediocre players. Let's just bar the door.
<< <i>Mattingly has gained steam again now that the "steroid" group is here....you cant have a HOF void for 15 years can we? some players will need to get in, and who better than the GREAT MATTINGLY? >>
Hernandez. Whitaker and Trammell, too. Larkin, definitely; same with Alomar. Probably Murphy
<< <i>Dick Allen may have a shot.... Mattingly.....Santo has long been overlooked, he retired at what ? 33? >>
Yep, Santo is a sad case. Great player who just never seems to get his due.
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Short Career is more nuanced. Lyman Bostock was a short career guy. Mattingly played in 91 games his rookie year, was a regular the following 12 years, only once missing more than 34 games. It's just that our perception is that someone who hit as well as Mattingly did in his 20s should continue to hit well even further into his 30s
Dizzy Dean and Al Rosen are the very best examples I can think of. Though Rosen only played for seven years in the majors, he was a very good player the three years before. His 1947 season may have been comparable to Matt Wieters in 2008 -- and Rosen was still kept in the minors for two more years. Pretty amazing something like that could happen even back then
Even if we buy the argument that Mattingly is the very best short career player not already in (which I don't, with the already mentioned Allen; also Rocky Colavito had an OPS+ higher than Mattingly in a few more games; Albert Belle and Bill Freehan might be a good choices, too), as you look into it, the more it comes across as a backhanded compliment. He may have been better than Oliva and much better than Garciaparra, but Frank Howard and Bobby Grich hung around just long enough to miss the criteria
Roger Maris is the only player I can think of I wouldn't mind seeing in the Hall-of-Fame based on the Fame part, rather than having a great career
Dom DiMaggio was a very good player in 1942, 43 and 44 but was not allowed to play in the majors. If we set the limit at 10 years, he is just after Belle, albeit because of a strange twist of baseball and American history
That was not uncommon back in that era. Most/many retired at that age, unlike the last 15 years or so where guys
hung on well into there 40's and beyond. The dough just wasn't there back then like it is today.
He should be in.
The perception is that he was behind Banks and Williams on those Cub teams.
Steve
He remains visible as Torre's right hand man and will likely manage somewhere soon. If his run as manager is also successful, one can argue to finally put him in.
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<< <i>
<< <i>Dick Allen may have a shot.... Mattingly.....Santo has long been overlooked, he retired at what ? 33? >>
Yep, Santo is a sad case. Great player who just never seems to get his due. >>
The thing people don't realize about Santo was the first year he was eligible, he received LESS than 5% of the vote from the very sportwriters who covered him and fell off the ballot after that year..
Obviously, he became popular again as an announcer and I don't have a problem with him being inducted into the Broadcasters Wing (a la Jerry Coleman), but his playing career was short of HOF material...
Yep, Santo is a sad case. Great player who just never seems to get his due. >>
The thing people don't realize about Santo was the first year he was eligible, he received LESS than 5% of the vote from the very sportwriters who covered him and fell off the ballot after that year..
Obviously, he became popular again as an announcer and I don't have a problem with him being inducted into the Broadcasters Wing (a la Jerry Coleman), but his playing career was short of HOF material... >>
Santo received 43% of the votes in his last year on the ballot (1998). Bill James has him as the 6th best third baseman of all time, and has long believed he belongs in the HOF. He was a tremendous defensive 3rd baseman. His offensive numbers, while quite good, were held down by the era in which he played. Maybe he belongs in, maybe he does not, but I do not believe it is fair to dismiss his qualifications without even analyzing the numbers.
<< <i>Yep, Santo is a sad case. Great player who just never seems to get his due. >>
The thing people don't realize about Santo was the first year he was eligible, he received LESS than 5% of the vote from the very sportwriters who covered him and fell off the ballot after that year..
Obviously, he became popular again as an announcer and I don't have a problem with him being inducted into the Broadcasters Wing (a la Jerry Coleman), but his playing career was short of HOF material... >>
Santo received 43% of the votes in his last year on the ballot (1998). Bill James has him as the 6th best third baseman of all time, and has long believed he belongs in the HOF. He was a tremendous defensive 3rd baseman. His offensive numbers, while quite good, were held down by the era in which he played. Maybe he belongs in, maybe he does not, but I do not believe it is fair to dismiss his qualifications without even analyzing the numbers. >>
The Baseball Writers (BBWAA) who covered Santo and saw him in play in person saw fit to reward him with 15 votes in 1980 (3.9%); subsequently he fell off the BBWAA ballot
Doug DeCinces & Graig Nettles were both tremendous defensive third baseman too....No one discusses enshrinement for either of those guys
http://baseballhall.org/hall-famers/bbwaa-voting/year?year=1980
<< <i>
<< <i>Yep, Santo is a sad case. Great player who just never seems to get his due. >>
The thing people don't realize about Santo was the first year he was eligible, he received LESS than 5% of the vote from the very sportwriters who covered him and fell off the ballot after that year..
Obviously, he became popular again as an announcer and I don't have a problem with him being inducted into the Broadcasters Wing (a la Jerry Coleman), but his playing career was short of HOF material... >>
Santo received 43% of the votes in his last year on the ballot (1998). Bill James has him as the 6th best third baseman of all time, and has long believed he belongs in the HOF. He was a tremendous defensive 3rd baseman. His offensive numbers, while quite good, were held down by the era in which he played. Maybe he belongs in, maybe he does not, but I do not believe it is fair to dismiss his qualifications without even analyzing the numbers. >>
The Baseball Writers (BBWAA) who covered Santo and saw him in play in person saw fit to reward him with 15 votes in 1980 (3.9%); subsequently he fell off the BBWAA ballot
He jumped up, brushed himself off, and got back on the BBWA ballot. He was then named on 43% of the ballots in 1998. Note that I said he was a great fielder AND a very good hitter whose numbers were held down by the era in which he played. FWIW, Nettles would not be the worst player in the HOF. DeCinces wasn't much of a hitter, and did not play in the 60s.
Anyone can read the vote totals. You have made no argument as to why Santo does not deserve to be in the HOF.
<< <i>DeCinces wasn't much of a hitter? Well, not compared to Mike Schmidt maybe, but I think if you ask all 30 teams in the league right now if they would take a guy with an average 162 games of 23 HR's 86 RBI's & .259 average at third base, the vast majority of them would take those numbers in a heartbeat. Throw that in with a great defensive record and he's a heck of a third baseman. Not a HOFer, but still darned good. >>
I apologize for the insult. I was comparing him to Santo. Santo was a much better hitter.