Adian's flurry of posts was too much for a mere mortal to claim 100
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
While it is a good argument, I do not see decimal grading as a near term possibility. It will not work with circulated coins, such as XF 45.5, or the intervening grades up to MS60. And there is too much data to record and price with decimals for the MS coins in 10 grades.
The best argument I have heard is to place a designation on coins that make them PQ for grade, and to start pricing them somewhere between the whole grade and the next higher one. There are many dates where there is a several thousand dollar difference between 64 and 65( or 65-66) but the only pricing is from private treaty or auction, with no real premium known. PCGS has been considering this for years, so I don't think this change, if done, will be the BIG ONE. ( TDN has already raised this possibility)
I also don't see a minus grade. I believe the market can discount slightly a barely made 65. But a jump up for the better coin that might be a borderline upgrade is tougher to figure, IMO. Some crack-out experts already bid up these possible upgrades, but more of us will pay the extra premium if the coin has been designated PQ, and there is some reasonable interim pricing. And this seems somewhat different from a CAC approval. Here the designation is for solid for grade if green, and upgrade for gold. But JA has already said, more than once, that he doesn't ascribe a higher price for the green sticker. It makes the coin more saleable, and there are sight unseen bids.
What will make all this interesting, is what the other TPG will do? And whether the new designations and pricing, if any, will be used by CAC in pricing their green stickered coins.
What has not been discussed is the transparency needed by all those who grade/approve coins. When will we see the history of a coin that has been submitted and not upgraded, designated PQ, green sticker or star? When you ask most dealers this question, they play the "I don't know" game, whether they do or not. There are a few who will tell you exactly what they know, but very few.
So, we must wait another week, and then this board will go crazy.
I do think we are getting a + or a PQ designation that will in effect just about double the amount of grades we currently have.
However, I don't that it's the big part of the announcement.
Is it possible that no one has guessed the big one yet? Yes, it is possible.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Is it possible that no one has guessed the big one yet? Yes, it is possible.
MJ >>
Yes, it is very possible. HRH hinted that at least part of it is far from obvious and many of the guesses we've seen address the obvious issues that have been talked about. Things that we might never guess:
1. New technology that is totally different instead of just a better version of what we have. 2. A partnership with a company that does something totally different. 3. New manufacturing or new product line that is totally different. 4. New approach to the business that takes it to another level...
Yes, I think there is a significant chance we will all say, "Wow, I never thought of that."
<< <i>Coinguy1- I not sure pcgs even knew what the big one was going to be. They started the thread to get free ideas from the masses to right the ship. lol >>
I think you value the ideas and opinions of the masses a bit too highly.
A good grader can grade a coin on average in about 15 seconds.
But their accuracy would improve imo if they spent 30-60 seconds looking at it. One only has to look at the big players at the major auctions. Do they spend 15 seconds or less looking at a coin before deciding what they'll pay, or possibly 30-60 seconds or more? The concept of the TPG is to make money while grading a lot of coins at an acceptable level of accuracy. The auction bidder does basically the same thing however they spend more time minimizing the chance of a mistake or overlooking something. The TPG grader doesn't have to lose hundreds or thousands of dollars if they make a market grading mistake....the auction bidder can. When you're spending your own money you need to spend as much time as possible to grade a coin.
When you look at Claudia Schiffer, how long does it take you to conclude she's about a 9.5?
Longer than you might think. While most can figure out the 8 or 9 within 5 seconds while viewing from 10-15 ft away, it takes more time to figure out the 9.5 part as one gets closer. Coins are no different. So many coins are TPG graded without using a glass. How many of those would be graded lower if a 5X glass was used (e the time constraint had no bearing)? It's no different from a coin being a 65 or 67. Most can conclude in 5 seconds the coin is really nice and of gem quality. OK, that gets them withing a factor of 4X the value of the coin. But it takes more time to figure out if it's a 66.5 and to nail the value to within say 10%.
If one is grading coins in 2-5 seconds, no doubt that person has a long stack of losers. I've never sold a higher priced coin to any dealer/collector who didn't put a glass to the coin before making a buying decision. Obviously there is some reason they are compelled to do it.
"I've never sold a higher priced coin to any dealer/collector who didn't put a glass to the coin before making a buying decision. Obviously there is some reason they are compelled to do it."
..........that's a hellova good point ; a buyer may scrutinize a coin for 2 or 5 min. with a 5X or 10x glass before buying,
the very least a paid grader owes the submitter is a few second look with a glass
"The best argument I have heard is to place a designation on coins that make them PQ for grade, and to start pricing them somewhere between the whole grade and the next higher one"
Yes, and, if only the possibility of getting a plus sign is 'made available', they can still add more designations later.
"Legend" (facilitated, really, by a well-heeled principal of Legend who likes electricity on the west coast) comes up with enough cash to somehow (I'm no Wallstreeter) take CU/PCGS private, which they do.
If Legend/CAC owns and therefore controls PCGS, they don't have to worry about PCGS implementing a "+" or "PQ" designation, sending CAC to the bottom of the ocean.
That's of course not the only reason why Legend/CAC/TDN would want to own and control PCGS. Since PCGS' stock has tripled in the last year, who wouldn't want to own a rising star like CU that might triple again?
Crap, nobody is getting 300% returns on their rare coin investments. You don't think Ben Franklin II wouldn't like to make a bunch of money owning CU so he can buy all the Trade Dollars out there now while the market is soft? You don't think Laura wouldn't want to (kindly of course) ask DH to go get him er I mean her a cup of decaf (doctor's orders....coffee leads to more screaming and a higher blood pressure)??????
And besides, TDN and LS will then have a key to the grading room and they can go in there and pile up all the coins and TDN can sit on top of them with a Burger King hat on while LS and DH hold hands and skip around the pile of coins and TDN....in their underwear. I'm sorry, scratch that last part, that was really disrespectful. (Now that we've gone there though, what kind of underwear do you think....no...wait a minute ...... that's gonna get me kicked off here...............I'll just STFU.
No....I can't STFU.....I just realized if Legend/CAC/TDN and LS own CU...........they... own..... this... message board which means Laura on her first day....oh my God......No....No.....No!!!!!!!!
I don't see any reason why anyone who owns a grading company couldn't look at the coins sent in for grading and use that opportunity to contact some of the owners of the finest coins to get first crack at making offers on the coins...
Think about it. What an edge a coin dealer like Legend would have if they could do that. Of course, the more coins you can make offers on, the better your buying is AND the better your inventory can be.
Legend/LS/TDN and DH are well on their way to ruling the universe! (I hope they don't make me eat soilen green.)
"The evolution of the rare coin marketplace has produced significant price gaps between some coins that are only one grade point apart. For example, the PCGS Price Guide lists the suggested retail price of 1825 Capped Bust half dollars graded PCGS MS64 at $3,400, compared to $12,000 for coins graded just one grade higher at MS65.
PCGS Secure Plus allows us to address this discrepancy by using decimal grading in our internal processes. With decimal grading, we are able to identify those coins we believe are superior for a grade both technically and in eye appeal. If PCGS designates a coin as a Plus, it has in our opinion multiple characteristics that place it in the top 10-15% of all coins in its grade. Coins meeting our strict requirements will have a "+" noted on the label.
We believe coins designated with a "+" could trade at a substantial premium over those coins without it. This will be especially apparent for coins where there is a large jump in value between grades. PCGS Secure Plus will help the market recognize the value of coins that are almost, but not quite, deserving of a higher grade.
Plus grading will apply only to grades ranging from XF45 to MS68, with the exception of MS60 and MS61, which will not be eligible for Plus designations."
The press release even includes a picture of my favorite example in this argument, the 1925-S dollar in MS64+.
This is what I wrote in the first line of this thread:
"I think PCGS will soon announce that they will soon start grading coins with either a plus sign to indicate premium quality or a negative sign to indicate low end for the grade or with nothing to indicate average for the grade. There will be 65-, 65 and 65+, etc. "
I think I came pretty close.
I really answered the question: "What is the wisest thing PCGS could do to improve the coin business?" They came close.
<< <i>David Hall said there are 3 announcements: one took 2 years, one took 6 months, and one took 2 months. Your ideas are good but do you think this would take 2 years and many people working on it to accomplish? This sounds more like the 2 month effort.
A few years back CU bought Gemprint which "fingerprinted" gems by using a laser and looking at the light dispersion. Can't that be adapted to coins so each coin gets a unique fingerprint? Sounds more like a 2 year effort to me.
<< <i>I don't see how PCGS could introduce a new and improved method to grading without at the same time then declaring inadaquate grading up to this point. >>
They did it on PSA Sportscards when they introduced half point grading a few years ago so there is some precedent. At first there was a lot of kicking and screaming by collectors but in the end resistance was futile. Half grades sell for a lot more money. I know not exactly apples to apples but.................Not sayin I believe that this is the announcement, but I find it plausible just the same. JMHO. MJ >>
Lay up
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Comments
Adian's flurry of posts was too much for a mere mortal to claim 100
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Thanks.
While it is a good argument, I do not see decimal grading as a near term possibility. It will not work with circulated coins, such as XF 45.5, or the intervening grades up to MS60. And there is too much data to record and price with decimals for the MS coins in 10 grades.
The best argument I have heard is to place a designation on coins that make them PQ for grade, and to start pricing them somewhere between the whole grade and the next higher one. There are many dates where there is a several thousand dollar difference between 64 and 65( or 65-66) but the only pricing is from private treaty or auction, with no real premium known. PCGS has been considering this for years, so I don't think this change, if done, will be the BIG ONE. ( TDN has already raised this possibility)
I also don't see a minus grade. I believe the market can discount slightly a barely made 65. But a jump up for the better coin that might be a borderline upgrade is tougher to figure, IMO. Some crack-out experts already bid up these possible upgrades, but more of us will pay the extra premium if the coin has been designated PQ, and there is some reasonable interim pricing. And this seems somewhat different from a CAC approval. Here the designation is for solid for grade if green, and upgrade for gold. But JA has already said, more than once, that he doesn't ascribe a higher price for the green sticker. It makes the coin more saleable, and there are sight unseen bids.
What will make all this interesting, is what the other TPG will do? And whether the new designations and pricing, if any, will be used by CAC in pricing their green stickered coins.
What has not been discussed is the transparency needed by all those who grade/approve coins. When will we see the history of a coin that has been submitted and not upgraded, designated PQ, green sticker or star? When you ask most dealers this question, they play the "I don't know" game, whether they do or not. There are a few who will tell you exactly what they know, but very few.
So, we must wait another week, and then this board will go crazy.
However, I don't that it's the big part of the announcement.
Is it possible that no one has guessed the big one yet? Yes, it is possible.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Is it possible that no one has guessed the big one yet? Yes, it is possible.
MJ >>
Yes, it is very possible. HRH hinted that at least part of it is far from obvious and many of the guesses we've seen address the obvious issues that have been talked about. Things that we might never guess:
1. New technology that is totally different instead of just a better version of what we have.
2. A partnership with a company that does something totally different.
3. New manufacturing or new product line that is totally different.
4. New approach to the business that takes it to another level...
Yes, I think there is a significant chance we will all say, "Wow, I never thought of that."
--Jerry
<< <i>Coinguy1- I not sure pcgs even knew what the big one was going to be. They started the thread to get free ideas from the masses to right the ship. lol >>
I think you value the ideas and opinions of the masses a bit too highly.
<< <i>I think you value the ideas and opinions of the masses a bit too highly.
Or you value the ideas and opinions of PCGS management slightly
your predictions are closer to home base and a long way from left field .
And least you forget , the U.S.A was built on the blood and sweat of countless millions who gave their lives
for our freedom and liberties ........, nothing unfortunate about that - I consider each and every one of them Hero's
But their accuracy would improve imo if they spent 30-60 seconds looking at it. One only has to look at the big players at the major auctions. Do they spend 15 seconds or less looking at a coin before deciding what they'll pay, or possibly 30-60 seconds or more? The concept of the TPG is to make money while grading a lot of coins at an acceptable level of accuracy. The auction bidder does basically the same thing however they spend more time minimizing the chance of a mistake or overlooking something. The TPG grader doesn't have to lose hundreds or thousands of dollars if they make a market grading mistake....the auction bidder can. When you're spending your own money you need to spend as much time as possible to grade a coin.
When you look at Claudia Schiffer, how long does it take you to conclude she's about a 9.5?
Longer than you might think. While most can figure out the 8 or 9 within 5 seconds while viewing from 10-15 ft away, it takes more time to figure out the 9.5 part as one gets closer. Coins are no different. So many coins are TPG graded without using a glass. How many of those would be graded lower if a 5X glass was used (e the time constraint had no bearing)? It's no different from a coin being a 65 or 67. Most can conclude in 5 seconds the coin is really nice and of gem quality. OK, that gets them withing a factor of 4X the value of the coin. But it takes more time to figure out if it's a 66.5 and to nail the value to within say 10%.
If one is grading coins in 2-5 seconds, no doubt that person has a long stack of losers. I've never sold a higher priced coin to any dealer/collector who didn't put a glass to the coin before making a buying decision. Obviously there is some reason they are compelled to do it.
roadrunner
I think PCGS is going to sell to Adrian who will implement the big ideas and rule the world
welcome back to the country, I hope the visit was not required for unpleasant reasons
..........that's a hellova good point ; a buyer may scrutinize a coin for 2 or 5 min. with a 5X or 10x glass before buying,
the very least a paid grader owes the submitter is a few second look with a glass
negative by it minus symbolism. Let us assume that the grade is MS-65.
MS-65 Opal (makes the grade)
MS-65 Emerald (Solid for the grade)
MS-65 diamond (Top of the line for technical and aesthetic value)
PCGS Diamonds, will be the standard of excellence ,regardless of the specific grade.
Camelot
How's that for left field?
a personal note from HRH himself ,together with an autographed picture.
Camelot
flavor of your choice.
Camelot
<< <i>I do not think that PCGS will use a (-). Such a mark would be considered
negative by it minus symbolism. Let us assume that the grade is MS-65.
MS-65 Opal (makes the grade)
MS-65 Emerald (Solid for the grade)
MS-65 diamond (Top of the line for technical and aesthetic value)
PCGS Diamonds, will be the standard of excellence ,regardless of the specific grade. >>
That would be really cool! I like it, bear! Extra jelly doughnuts for you today!!!!
Larry L.
Yes, and, if only the possibility of getting a plus sign is 'made available', they can still add more designations later.
"Legend" (facilitated, really, by a well-heeled principal of Legend who likes electricity on the west coast) comes up with enough cash to somehow (I'm no Wallstreeter) take CU/PCGS private, which they do.
If Legend/CAC owns and therefore controls PCGS, they don't have to worry about PCGS implementing a "+" or "PQ" designation, sending CAC to the bottom of the ocean.
That's of course not the only reason why Legend/CAC/TDN would want to own and control PCGS. Since PCGS' stock has tripled in the last year, who wouldn't want to own a rising star like CU that might triple again?
Crap, nobody is getting 300% returns on their rare coin investments. You don't think Ben Franklin II wouldn't like to make a bunch of money owning CU so he can buy all the Trade Dollars out there now while the market is soft? You don't think Laura wouldn't want to (kindly of course) ask DH to go get him er I mean her a cup of decaf (doctor's orders....coffee leads to more screaming and a higher blood pressure)??????
And besides, TDN and LS will then have a key to the grading room and they can go in there and pile up all the coins and TDN can sit on top of them with a Burger King hat on while LS and DH hold hands and skip around the pile of coins and TDN....in their underwear. I'm sorry, scratch that last part, that was really disrespectful. (Now that we've gone there though, what kind of underwear do you think....no...wait a minute ...... that's gonna get me kicked off here...............I'll just STFU.
No....I can't STFU.....I just realized if Legend/CAC/TDN and LS own CU...........they... own..... this... message board which means Laura on her first day....oh my God......No....No.....No!!!!!!!!
Hey.....wait a minute...isn't that how long DH said one project has taken them?
Huh.
I don't see any reason why anyone who owns a grading company couldn't look at the coins sent in for grading and use that opportunity to contact some of the owners of the finest coins to get first crack at making offers on the coins...
Think about it. What an edge a coin dealer like Legend would have if they could do that. Of course, the more coins you can make offers on, the better your buying is AND the better your inventory can be.
Legend/LS/TDN and DH are well on their way to ruling the universe! (I hope they don't make me eat soilen green.)
Apparently only Heaven knows ,and they aren't talking.
Camelot
<< <i>Thanks to those of you who welcomed me back. >>
We all missed you and your posts. Don't they have internet service where you live in Costa Rica?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Steve
<< <i>Yes, there is internet service in CR and in CO. >>
It seems you only join us here when you are back in the US which is why I asked. When you go back, don't be a stranger.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Russ, NCNE
PCGS Secure Plus allows us to address this discrepancy by using decimal grading in our internal processes. With decimal grading, we are able to identify those coins we believe are superior for a grade both technically and in eye appeal. If PCGS designates a coin as a Plus, it has in our opinion multiple characteristics that place it in the top 10-15% of all coins in its grade. Coins meeting our strict requirements will have a "+" noted on the label.
We believe coins designated with a "+" could trade at a substantial premium over those coins without it. This will be especially apparent for coins where there is a large jump in value between grades. PCGS Secure Plus will help the market recognize the value of coins that are almost, but not quite, deserving of a higher grade.
Plus grading will apply only to grades ranging from XF45 to MS68, with the exception of MS60 and MS61, which will not be eligible for Plus designations."
The press release even includes a picture of my favorite example in this argument, the 1925-S dollar in MS64+.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"I think PCGS will soon announce that they will soon start grading coins with either a plus sign to indicate premium quality or a negative sign to indicate low end for the grade or with nothing to indicate average for the grade. There will be 65-, 65 and 65+, etc. "
I think I came pretty close.
I really answered the question: "What is the wisest thing PCGS could do to improve the coin business?" They came close.
<< <i>David Hall said there are 3 announcements: one took 2 years, one took 6 months, and one took 2 months. Your ideas are good but do you think this would take 2 years and many people working on it to accomplish? This sounds more like the 2 month effort.
A few years back CU bought Gemprint which "fingerprinted" gems by using a laser and looking at the light dispersion. Can't that be adapted to coins so each coin gets a unique fingerprint? Sounds more like a 2 year effort to me.
Gemprint: how it works
Gemprint diagram >>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't see how PCGS could introduce a new and improved method to grading without at the same time then declaring inadaquate grading up to this point. >>
They did it on PSA Sportscards when they introduced half point grading a few years ago so there is some precedent. At first there was a lot of kicking and screaming by collectors but in the end resistance was futile. Half grades sell for a lot more money. I know not exactly apples to apples but.................Not sayin I believe that this is the announcement, but I find it plausible just the same. JMHO. MJ >>
Lay up
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
RIP Walmann.