The mystical math of Johnny Damon and Scott Boras

MCMLVTopps

Early in the off season, #18's mouthpiece (Scott Boreass) wants another $52m for a 4 year deal with the pinstripers. Cashman declines.

Cashman at some point offers $14m for 2 years, declined by Damon.

Damon offers his services for $20m for 2 years. Cashman decllines.

Enter now the mouthpiece, who ups the deal to $26m for 2 years. Cashman declines.

Now, it appears reality sets in, and the Windemere FL resident begins to "see the light". Geez, I'm 37 and not too many folks are beating on my door. Atlanta Braves? Whoa, can't do that. My agent has hosed me early in the game, wait a minute, my cell just rang..."hello", "hey Johnny, Tiger's here, how about $8m for one?". I'm all over it, let's do the physical and I'm yours, thanks for calling. Whew, how lucky was that?

Let's see now, had $14m for 2 in the bag, and playing for the elite NY Yankees...naw, I'm better than that, I'll take $8m for 1 with the Tigers. After all, if I have a crappy year, I'll only be 38, teams will be wearing out my cell phone to sign me. ECON 101, not my strong suit!

DUHHHHH!!!

I will not miss the first Tigers @ Yankees game, just for the fan reaction.

TomGshotput

So he essentially disagreed to play 2011 for $6 million. We don't yet know what he will earn that year, but we do know for sure that holding out in previous negotiations allowed him to play for the Yankees in 2009 for a lot more than any other team was willing to pay

Doesn't seem too mystical to me

perkdog

Screw the both of them as far as Im concerned.

Tomi

Didn't Pink Floyd write the sports anthem that applies to this- "Money"

Connecticoin

Johnny is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

MCMLVTopps

JD will be approximately 38.5 yrs old (and not getting younger) when the 2011 season is in high blower. A quick review of his current stats show that he is declining in performance, which indicates he won't necessarily improve while with the Tigers. His fielding ability is not the greatest and he has an arm that can barely make it back to 2nd base. He may pop a few HRs, but for $8m he should be able to do "something". He's become a utility player, and will be a DH and pinch hitter with Detroit. I will be amazed if he ever takes the outfield again.

So...JD and his lip snicker at $14m for 2 and take $8m for one with a "hope" of better than $6m next season. I don't think that's gonna happen. JD is confined to the AL with the DH rule, which eliminates half of MLB. Unless JD has one helluva season, I suspect his gamble will not pay off. Besides, I think Tiger's management was in desperation for a "name" ballplayer in hopes of revenue generation and a bigger hope that he will produce.

Oh Johnny Boy, it ain't gonna be fun facing Mariano, et al.

TomGshotput

So what is your real point?

It is extremely likely that whatever he loses out on in 2011 will be a lot less than what he gained in 2009 from using this approach. If his value after the 2009 season is $8 million, most likely it would have been about the same after the 2008 season. So long as he can sign a contract for at least $1 million next year, holding out like this will still have created a net profit overall

Again, the math isn't mystical, it is rational

VintageCardLover

he's getting paid very well for one year. its a gamble on his part. Doesnt seem very mystical.

Bosox1976

Since when does age matter in MLB anymore? Just need some "vitamins". JD's gotta get on the juice to get a bigger payday. Caveman like workout.

MCMLVTopps

Given the lack of interest, I think Damon missed the boat by not taking the $14m for 2. He could have had guaranteed money for the next 2 years as he drifts into the sunset. Getting paid $7m instead of $8m is a paltry drop of $1m, however he could have had his 2011 decision locked up with the $7m Yankee offer. I doubt his age, skills and 2010 performance will garner him $6m for 2011. After just getting $52m for 4, I doubt $1m means a lot to him. He also may have missed an opportunity to stay with the Yankees longer than 2011, even at an equal or lower pay than the $7m. I think Boras essentially priced him out of the market with his absurb demand to the Yankees in the off season of another $52m for 4, that was never gonna happen.

Time will tell if he made the right decision.

TomGshotput

<< <i> I think Boras essentially priced him out of the market with his absurb demand to the Yankees in the off season of another $52m for 4, that was never gonna happen >>



Exactly. Since it worked so perfectly four years ago, allowing him to play last year for $13 million instead of the $8 million he would have earned, it makes sense that Damon would take the same approach again

If Damon negotiated conservatively he would have lost out by a wider margin last time. The only thing I have trouble understanding is why you think a baseball player who merely negotiates well, rather than perfectly is such a mystical entity

MCMLVTopps

I'm not a Damon fan, so this will be my last post on the topic I started. I merely stated "mystical math" as tongue in cheek, not for anyone to get so hung up on.

Exactly. Since it worked so perfectly four years ago, allowing him to play last year for $13 million instead of the $8 million he would have earned, it makes sense that Damon would take the same approach again

If Damon negotiated conservatively he would have lost out by a wider margin last time. The only thing I have trouble understanding is why you think a baseball player who merely negotiates well, rather than perfectly is such a mystical entity

How do you know Damon would have earned only $8m last year? He was a quality player deserving of the contract he got when he joined the Yankees after '04. What "approach" do you think Damon has taken? Would that be yet another $52m for 4? How would that "approach" do anything other than to be immediately dismissed. Last time is just that, last time. He is nowhere near the player he once was.

Damon IMO was very fortunate to have gotten the offer he did from Detroit. I doubt his pay for 2011 will be in that arena unless of course he somehow manages to have a stellar year. I don't recall that the offer from the WS had any steam behind it, and his possible Braves offer was undoubtedly dismissed immediately because he'd have to be a position player, not just a pinch hitter. His money at this point lies within the AL and the DH. I don't think he negotiated worth a flip this year, and may well have turned off teams that may have been considering him.

I still think he missed the boat by not taking the Yankees offer of $14m for 2.

TomGshotput

The "approach" was turning down what most teams felt his value was and being willing to hold out until one team out of 30 would add a fourth year. We don't know exactly what Damon would have been able to sign for a year ago, but we do know his overall play didn't change much. It is most likely he will earn less than $14 million over the next two years. But it is almost guaranteed his total reported career earnings will exceed $100 million, so I would have to believe his "approach" to negotiating contracts has helped him reach some pretty good personal gain

lanemyer85

<< I think Boras essentially priced him out of the market with his absurb demand to the Yankees in the off season of another $52m for 4, that was never gonna happen >>

I think one factor into all of these Damon negotiations is that Holliday was obviously Boras' #1 client, and getting Damon signed early with the Yankees on that 2 year offer would have eliminated the Yankees as a bargaining chip between Holliday's negotiations between Boras and the Cardinals and/or whomever had real interest in signing Holliday. Conspiracy theory-ish sure, but I wouldn't doubt that scenario for a second. After the Red Sox signed Cameron, if the Yanks were known to be out of the running for Holliday for sure, the Cardinals would have had more leverage in their negotiations with BOS and NYY out of the running. So in essence Boras sacrificed Damon's return to NY for his and Holliday's gain.

DeutscherGeist

Yes, Damon used a good approach that worked 4 years ago. This "approach" is context based. Sadly, Damon did not have the same context this time around and his approach needed to adjust for the changing environment (his age and diminished skills).
What worked in one context is not going to work in another. One must be ready to adjust negotiating tactics. Granderson is going to be better for the Yankees than Damon could ever be.

Damon should have been smart enough to realize that 2 years 14 million was good enough at his age and stage in career. I think Detroit might have even overpaid.

TheVon

I agree that Boras didn't take the right approach with Damon's contract this time around and it might have cost Damon some $$$ in the end. I disagree to some extent that Damon's skills are declining though. If you compare his stats from 2009 to his 2005 stats - his last year in Boston, Damon actually put up some better numbers last year - at least to the extent that Bora$ could have taken those numbers and marketed them to boost Damon's value. That is, after all, what Bora$ does for his clients, isn't it?

Quick comparison:
2005 - 148 games, 117 runs, 197 hits, 35 doubles, 10 HR, 75 RBI, 18 SB, .316 avg., .366 OBP, 110 OPS+, 274 total bases . . .
2009 - 143 games, 107 runs, 155 hits, 36 doubles, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 12 SB, .282 avg., .365 OBP, 126 OPS+, 269 total bases . . .

Certainly, Damon is 4 years older now so he's going to command less money and the economy isn't what it was in 2005 either. But these are not bad numbers for a baseball player. The numbers from last year are probably inflated due to playing in what appears to be a new launching pad in New York and so maybe Damon's highest value would be as a Yankee. It just seems that the Yankees were ready to make a change and go younger and Bora$ didn't realize that he didn't have the bargaining power he thought he had.

TheVon

And for those who think that Bora$ may have been more concerned about Holliday than Damon, you're not alone.

jivan

this is my 2 cents on johnny damon..selfish douche......no better than david cone who lost a ton of games for yanks one year and wanted a raise..lol

vladguerrero

Detroit isn't the same hitters park as NY, but he'll steal some bags. Boras is the devil.

K

Johnny sold his soul a long time ago...



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