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Posnanski on Frank Thomas and the Steroid Era
markj111
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Frank Thomas
Posted: February 15th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball | 117 Comments »
Frank Thomas is probably the most prominent non-steroid user in baseball history. Of course, we can’t know the secret lives of bees or people. But every indication is that Frank Thomas avoided steroids. He was so public about his disgust over performance enhancing drugs. He advocated steroid testing fifteen years ago. He came forward to talk to the Mitchell Report people. If he used steroids, it was one hell of an act.
It’s a funny thing about the Selig Era — we don’t really know much. But as time goes on, we seem to build in our collective minds a short list of players who definitely used steroids, a list of players who probably used steroids and another short list of players who, surely, did not. The definite users are easier, of course, because they were caught or the evidence against them piles high or they offered something resembling an admission.
We know (or strongly suspect) these players used:
– Barry Bonds
– Mark McGwire
– Jason Giambi
– Alex Rodriguez
– Roger Clemens
– Andy Pettitte
– Sammy Sosa
– David Ortiz
– Gary Sheffield
– Manny Ramirez
– Rafael Palmeiro
– Etc.
Then we have a much longer list of players who PROBABLY used steroids … a list we all concoct using logic, detective work, circumstantial evidence, innuendo and recklessness. Of course, we don’t talk about these players publicly because it would be unfair and spiteful and wildly irresponsible. There are land mines everywhere.
Take just one case: Brady Anderson. We all know that Anderson famously hit 50 home runs in 1996, and he never hit more than 24 home runs in any other season.
I cannot remember: Did Anderson ever admit using steroids?
I have to look it up: No, he has not.
Jim Palmer once suggested that Anderson was a steroid user, and soon after Anderson came out with a strong denial (“I know what I accomplished, am proud of it, and know that it was done with integrity,” he said). Cal Ripken then seconded Anderson’s denial (“To me, it was all about him being locked in,” Cal said). Anderson admitted using the legal supplement creatine — admitted and defended it — but that’s a whole other thing.
So, we know that Brady Anderson became only he 12th person in baseball history to hit 50 home runs — and he was the only one to never hit at least 39 homers in another season.* We know that Anderson was, in the words of Cal Ripken, ahead of his time when it came to workout patterns and diets. Ripken: “Brady always had a much more advanced concept of cross-training and plyometrics and his diet. He was just ahead of the curve.” And we also know that Anderson never tested positive for anything and he aggressively denies that he ever used anything illegal. Go ahead. Make your call. Jump into that briar patch.
And remember Brady Anderson is just ONE PLAYER. Now go ahead and play that same detective game with the 126 other players who hit 30 or more homers from 1990 to 2003 — not to mention the thousands of other players and pitchers in the big leagues.
*Two other players — Roger Maris and Hack Wilson — had famous outlier seasons. Maris, of course hit 61 in ‘61. Wilson, of course, hit 56 home runs and drove in 191 RBIs in 1930.
What’s interesting, to me, is their second best home run seasons happened one earlier. And they are similar.
Wilson in 1929 hit .345/.425/.618 with 39 homers, a league leading 159 RBIs.
Maris in 1960 hit .283/.371/.581 with 39 homers and league-leading 112 RBIs.
In context, those seasons are very similar. Maris posted a 161 OPS+ to Wilson’s 155. Wilson punched up 32 win shares to Maris’ 31. Maris had 7.5 wins above replacement, Wilson’s WAR was 6.7.
Then there is the non-users list. The fair play list. This is a list of players — and everyone has their own list — who we have to believe, deep down, did not use performance enhancing drugs. How does someone get on this list? Well, it’s tricky because just about everyone SAYS that they did not use PEDs. And as soon as you start to celebrate someone, someone else writes a book about him.
Still, by consensus, I would say a Fair Play List might look a little bit like this (feel free to add your own players):
– Frank Thomas
– Ken Griffey
– Greg Maddux
– Pedro Martinez
– David Eckstein
– Jamie Moyer
– Every Royals hitter since 1985.*
*You probably know this, but the Kansas City Royals’ record for most homers in a season is 36 … set in 1985. Not only is this the lowest home run record in baseball, but just from 1994-2002, every team in baseball had someone hit more than 36 home runs except the Royals and the Minnesota Twins. You know how they say in “Field of Dreams” that the 1960s never came to Iowa. Well, it’s like the steroid era never came to Kansas City and Minnesota. Or, more likely, the Royals and Twins could only afford the steroid users who did not hit a lot of home runs.
Thomas and Griffey are the outliers on the Fair Play List because they were both big power hitters in an era of big power hitters. Their numbers fit in and often overshadow players we know used steroids. But they are different. Griffey is widely viewed as a fair play guy because of circumstantial evidence. He pretty famously did not work out much (or, often, at all) and his body type stayed more or less the same — thin, wiry strong, he LOOKED like ballplayers from earlier eras. And his career arc is more traditional too — he developed big power five years into his career, peaked at 27, was good until 30, and has battled injuries ever since. Plus Griffey never seemed like the type to use. Plus he has been somewhat outspoken about having never used steroids or any of that. None of this, of course, precludes the possibility — like I say, we don’t know what we don’t know. But we like having Griffey on our Fair Play List.
Thomas is different. He did work out. He did look like the football player he was at Auburn. He’s on the Fair Play List by force — he has been on the PED front lines ever since he got into the big leagues. Even in the early 1990s, he expressed surprise that there was no testing in Major League Baseball. He is on record calling for testing as early as 1995. He has been quoted many times either saying or hinting that other players were taking short cuts that he refused to take. He gave video testimony before Congress. He was the only active player who willingly spoke with George Mitchell. If we want to believe that Griffey is the Willie Mays of the steroid era — rarely saying anything controversial but hoping to make his case with his brilliant play — then Thomas is the Jackie Robinson, outspoken, raw, controversial and proud of his high standards.
I bring all this up now because Frank Thomas just retired and, impossibly, people are “discussing” whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I find this stunning. This takes a discussion? Frank Thomas is not only a Hall of Famer, but unless he has been pulling off one of the greatest scams in baseball history, he and Greg Maddux are probably the clearest cut Hall of Fame players of their era. Thomas should not just go into the Hall of Fame, he should go in unanimously.
Let’s start with Thomas the player.
For his career, Thomas has a .300 batting average and 500 home runs. That right there should make him an absolute Hall of Fame lock. Nine players in baseball have that combination — and only seven of them pulled it off with no steroid stain on their careers (A-Rod and MannyBManny are the other two). The seven are:
1. Hank Aaron
2. Babe Ruth
3. Willie Mays
4. Jimmie Foxx
5. Ted Williams
6. Mel Ott
7. Frank Thomas
Not bad, eh? Ruth, Foxx and Ott all played before integration. Williams might be the greatest hitter in baseball history. Mays might be the greatest all-around player in baseball history. Aaron might be the most consistent player in baseball history. And Frank Thomas — well, he was perhaps the most vocal non-steroid user of the Selig Era.
But even that not does begin to capture just how good a hitter Frank Thomas was in his prime. I have shown this comparison before, but no matter how many times I see it, I find it absolutely amazing:
Frank Thomas’s first eight full seasons: .330/.452/.604, 250 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs eight times, 182 OPS+.
Albert Pujols’ first eight full seasons: .334/.425/.652, 319 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs seven times, 170 OPS+.
Yes, eight years into his career, Thomas was every bit as good or better than Pujols. Now, Pujols’ ninth season was in many ways his best yet, and he looks to be on his way to becoming the greatest right-handed hitter in baseball history. But that’s the point — that looked to be Thomas’ destiny in 1997. Greatest right-handed hitter ever. He had already won two MVPs and could have won at least two others. He had won a batting title, four on-base percentage titles, three OPS+ titles, and he led the league in doubles, runs, slugging ….
Then, he turned 30. And he aged rapidly. Injuries. Inconsistency. Thomas only had one more great season, 2000, when he hit .328/.436/.625 with a career high 43 homers and 143 RBIs. He did hit 42 homers in 2003, and had enough big hits in 2006 to finish fourth in the MVP voting, but by then he was no longer than transcendent hitter he had been as a young man. After 2000, Thomas never again hit .300 — he hit .262/.376/.507. He still walked a ton, and he whacked enough home runs to make himself useful. But this was not Frank Thomas at his best.
When Frank Thomas was at his best — he was a line drive hitter with power and remarkable discipline.
Seasons with 100 runs, 100 RBIs, 100 walks and .300 average:
1. Babe Ruth, 12
2. Lou Gehrig, 10
3. Frank Thomas, 8
(tied) Barry Bonds, 8
(tied) Ted Williams, 8
6. Jimmie Foxx, 6
7. Mel Ott, 5
Thomas was not a good fielder, of course — he actually spent more games at DH than first base — and he was famously slow on the bases in the later years of his career. But he’s one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, and an absolute Hall of Fame slam dunk.
But then, there’s the second part. We all understand that the Hall of Fame voters, as a group, have little sympathy or respect for steroid users. McGwire’s historic home run pace registers less than 25% approval rating among voters. Rafael Palmeiro put up obscene career numbers — 3,000 hits, 550 homers, more than 1,800 RBIs — but his Hall of Fame case seems dead on arrival. There will be many people who will not vote for Barry Bonds, despite his 762 career home runs and five-year span as the greatest hitter the game ever saw. We all know that.
So what about Frank Thomas? If you assume he was clean — and it seems a pretty good assumption — then how can you possibly NOT vote for him? Here is somebody who represented the highest level of integrity at a time when there was no drug testing, no stigma attached to steroid use and almost no chance of getting caught. Here is somebody who not only did not use steroids but spoke out against them … AND he still hit like crazy.
There are so many inconsistencies in how we as the general public seem to feel about PEDs in baseball. But one thing that should be consistent — it seems to me that if we are going to savage the players who did use, we should certainly seek out and celebrate the players who did not.
One of the things I love in journalism are headlines with questions in them … especially questions that can easily be answered. So when I see the headline: “Is Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?” I hope that the story does not have 2,096 words like this one. It only needs one word: Yes
Posted: February 15th, 2010 | Filed under: Baseball | 117 Comments »
Frank Thomas is probably the most prominent non-steroid user in baseball history. Of course, we can’t know the secret lives of bees or people. But every indication is that Frank Thomas avoided steroids. He was so public about his disgust over performance enhancing drugs. He advocated steroid testing fifteen years ago. He came forward to talk to the Mitchell Report people. If he used steroids, it was one hell of an act.
It’s a funny thing about the Selig Era — we don’t really know much. But as time goes on, we seem to build in our collective minds a short list of players who definitely used steroids, a list of players who probably used steroids and another short list of players who, surely, did not. The definite users are easier, of course, because they were caught or the evidence against them piles high or they offered something resembling an admission.
We know (or strongly suspect) these players used:
– Barry Bonds
– Mark McGwire
– Jason Giambi
– Alex Rodriguez
– Roger Clemens
– Andy Pettitte
– Sammy Sosa
– David Ortiz
– Gary Sheffield
– Manny Ramirez
– Rafael Palmeiro
– Etc.
Then we have a much longer list of players who PROBABLY used steroids … a list we all concoct using logic, detective work, circumstantial evidence, innuendo and recklessness. Of course, we don’t talk about these players publicly because it would be unfair and spiteful and wildly irresponsible. There are land mines everywhere.
Take just one case: Brady Anderson. We all know that Anderson famously hit 50 home runs in 1996, and he never hit more than 24 home runs in any other season.
I cannot remember: Did Anderson ever admit using steroids?
I have to look it up: No, he has not.
Jim Palmer once suggested that Anderson was a steroid user, and soon after Anderson came out with a strong denial (“I know what I accomplished, am proud of it, and know that it was done with integrity,” he said). Cal Ripken then seconded Anderson’s denial (“To me, it was all about him being locked in,” Cal said). Anderson admitted using the legal supplement creatine — admitted and defended it — but that’s a whole other thing.
So, we know that Brady Anderson became only he 12th person in baseball history to hit 50 home runs — and he was the only one to never hit at least 39 homers in another season.* We know that Anderson was, in the words of Cal Ripken, ahead of his time when it came to workout patterns and diets. Ripken: “Brady always had a much more advanced concept of cross-training and plyometrics and his diet. He was just ahead of the curve.” And we also know that Anderson never tested positive for anything and he aggressively denies that he ever used anything illegal. Go ahead. Make your call. Jump into that briar patch.
And remember Brady Anderson is just ONE PLAYER. Now go ahead and play that same detective game with the 126 other players who hit 30 or more homers from 1990 to 2003 — not to mention the thousands of other players and pitchers in the big leagues.
*Two other players — Roger Maris and Hack Wilson — had famous outlier seasons. Maris, of course hit 61 in ‘61. Wilson, of course, hit 56 home runs and drove in 191 RBIs in 1930.
What’s interesting, to me, is their second best home run seasons happened one earlier. And they are similar.
Wilson in 1929 hit .345/.425/.618 with 39 homers, a league leading 159 RBIs.
Maris in 1960 hit .283/.371/.581 with 39 homers and league-leading 112 RBIs.
In context, those seasons are very similar. Maris posted a 161 OPS+ to Wilson’s 155. Wilson punched up 32 win shares to Maris’ 31. Maris had 7.5 wins above replacement, Wilson’s WAR was 6.7.
Then there is the non-users list. The fair play list. This is a list of players — and everyone has their own list — who we have to believe, deep down, did not use performance enhancing drugs. How does someone get on this list? Well, it’s tricky because just about everyone SAYS that they did not use PEDs. And as soon as you start to celebrate someone, someone else writes a book about him.
Still, by consensus, I would say a Fair Play List might look a little bit like this (feel free to add your own players):
– Frank Thomas
– Ken Griffey
– Greg Maddux
– Pedro Martinez
– David Eckstein
– Jamie Moyer
– Every Royals hitter since 1985.*
*You probably know this, but the Kansas City Royals’ record for most homers in a season is 36 … set in 1985. Not only is this the lowest home run record in baseball, but just from 1994-2002, every team in baseball had someone hit more than 36 home runs except the Royals and the Minnesota Twins. You know how they say in “Field of Dreams” that the 1960s never came to Iowa. Well, it’s like the steroid era never came to Kansas City and Minnesota. Or, more likely, the Royals and Twins could only afford the steroid users who did not hit a lot of home runs.
Thomas and Griffey are the outliers on the Fair Play List because they were both big power hitters in an era of big power hitters. Their numbers fit in and often overshadow players we know used steroids. But they are different. Griffey is widely viewed as a fair play guy because of circumstantial evidence. He pretty famously did not work out much (or, often, at all) and his body type stayed more or less the same — thin, wiry strong, he LOOKED like ballplayers from earlier eras. And his career arc is more traditional too — he developed big power five years into his career, peaked at 27, was good until 30, and has battled injuries ever since. Plus Griffey never seemed like the type to use. Plus he has been somewhat outspoken about having never used steroids or any of that. None of this, of course, precludes the possibility — like I say, we don’t know what we don’t know. But we like having Griffey on our Fair Play List.
Thomas is different. He did work out. He did look like the football player he was at Auburn. He’s on the Fair Play List by force — he has been on the PED front lines ever since he got into the big leagues. Even in the early 1990s, he expressed surprise that there was no testing in Major League Baseball. He is on record calling for testing as early as 1995. He has been quoted many times either saying or hinting that other players were taking short cuts that he refused to take. He gave video testimony before Congress. He was the only active player who willingly spoke with George Mitchell. If we want to believe that Griffey is the Willie Mays of the steroid era — rarely saying anything controversial but hoping to make his case with his brilliant play — then Thomas is the Jackie Robinson, outspoken, raw, controversial and proud of his high standards.
I bring all this up now because Frank Thomas just retired and, impossibly, people are “discussing” whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I find this stunning. This takes a discussion? Frank Thomas is not only a Hall of Famer, but unless he has been pulling off one of the greatest scams in baseball history, he and Greg Maddux are probably the clearest cut Hall of Fame players of their era. Thomas should not just go into the Hall of Fame, he should go in unanimously.
Let’s start with Thomas the player.
For his career, Thomas has a .300 batting average and 500 home runs. That right there should make him an absolute Hall of Fame lock. Nine players in baseball have that combination — and only seven of them pulled it off with no steroid stain on their careers (A-Rod and MannyBManny are the other two). The seven are:
1. Hank Aaron
2. Babe Ruth
3. Willie Mays
4. Jimmie Foxx
5. Ted Williams
6. Mel Ott
7. Frank Thomas
Not bad, eh? Ruth, Foxx and Ott all played before integration. Williams might be the greatest hitter in baseball history. Mays might be the greatest all-around player in baseball history. Aaron might be the most consistent player in baseball history. And Frank Thomas — well, he was perhaps the most vocal non-steroid user of the Selig Era.
But even that not does begin to capture just how good a hitter Frank Thomas was in his prime. I have shown this comparison before, but no matter how many times I see it, I find it absolutely amazing:
Frank Thomas’s first eight full seasons: .330/.452/.604, 250 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs eight times, 182 OPS+.
Albert Pujols’ first eight full seasons: .334/.425/.652, 319 homers, 100 runs and 100 RBIs seven times, 170 OPS+.
Yes, eight years into his career, Thomas was every bit as good or better than Pujols. Now, Pujols’ ninth season was in many ways his best yet, and he looks to be on his way to becoming the greatest right-handed hitter in baseball history. But that’s the point — that looked to be Thomas’ destiny in 1997. Greatest right-handed hitter ever. He had already won two MVPs and could have won at least two others. He had won a batting title, four on-base percentage titles, three OPS+ titles, and he led the league in doubles, runs, slugging ….
Then, he turned 30. And he aged rapidly. Injuries. Inconsistency. Thomas only had one more great season, 2000, when he hit .328/.436/.625 with a career high 43 homers and 143 RBIs. He did hit 42 homers in 2003, and had enough big hits in 2006 to finish fourth in the MVP voting, but by then he was no longer than transcendent hitter he had been as a young man. After 2000, Thomas never again hit .300 — he hit .262/.376/.507. He still walked a ton, and he whacked enough home runs to make himself useful. But this was not Frank Thomas at his best.
When Frank Thomas was at his best — he was a line drive hitter with power and remarkable discipline.
Seasons with 100 runs, 100 RBIs, 100 walks and .300 average:
1. Babe Ruth, 12
2. Lou Gehrig, 10
3. Frank Thomas, 8
(tied) Barry Bonds, 8
(tied) Ted Williams, 8
6. Jimmie Foxx, 6
7. Mel Ott, 5
Thomas was not a good fielder, of course — he actually spent more games at DH than first base — and he was famously slow on the bases in the later years of his career. But he’s one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, and an absolute Hall of Fame slam dunk.
But then, there’s the second part. We all understand that the Hall of Fame voters, as a group, have little sympathy or respect for steroid users. McGwire’s historic home run pace registers less than 25% approval rating among voters. Rafael Palmeiro put up obscene career numbers — 3,000 hits, 550 homers, more than 1,800 RBIs — but his Hall of Fame case seems dead on arrival. There will be many people who will not vote for Barry Bonds, despite his 762 career home runs and five-year span as the greatest hitter the game ever saw. We all know that.
So what about Frank Thomas? If you assume he was clean — and it seems a pretty good assumption — then how can you possibly NOT vote for him? Here is somebody who represented the highest level of integrity at a time when there was no drug testing, no stigma attached to steroid use and almost no chance of getting caught. Here is somebody who not only did not use steroids but spoke out against them … AND he still hit like crazy.
There are so many inconsistencies in how we as the general public seem to feel about PEDs in baseball. But one thing that should be consistent — it seems to me that if we are going to savage the players who did use, we should certainly seek out and celebrate the players who did not.
One of the things I love in journalism are headlines with questions in them … especially questions that can easily be answered. So when I see the headline: “Is Frank Thomas a Hall of Famer?” I hope that the story does not have 2,096 words like this one. It only needs one word: Yes
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I highly agree with you!
I would also add Jeter to the NON-list
I agree. Thomas should be automatic.
Always buying perfect 1986 Fleer Basketball PSA 10 cards and 1982 OPC Nolan Ryan cards. Thank you.
<< <i>So what would Frank's numbers be if he was a full time player and not a full time DH in his last 9 or 10 years? Possibly never would have had 500 HR's and we wouldn't even be talking about him and the HOF. Something to think about. He was only a half-player for the second half of his career. Not trying to hate, but it's a very fair argument. >>
Yep, that's what makes it tough for me. But, based on his 1990-2001 span, he's got a case to get in.
Working on the following: 1970 Baseball PSA, 1970-1976 Raw, World Series Subsets PSA, 1969 Expansion Teams PSA, Fleer World Series Sets, Texas Rangers Topps Run 1972-1989
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Successful deals to date: thedudeabides,gameusedhoop,golfcollector,tigerdean,treetop,bkritz, CapeMOGuy,WeekendHacker,jeff8877,backbidder,Salinas,milbroco,bbuckner22,VitoCo1972,ddfamf,gemint,K,fatty macs,waltersobchak,dboneesq
<< <i>So what would Frank's numbers be if he was a full time player and not a full time DH in his last 9 or 10 years? Possibly never would have had 500 HR's and we wouldn't even be talking about him and the HOF. Something to think about. He was only a half-player for the second half of his career. Not trying to hate, but it's a very fair argument. >>
I don't get it at all. DH is a position in baseball, and he played it very well. If you don't think it's important, try winning in the AL without one. Should we keep pitchers out of the HOF because they are lousy hitters?
Frank Thomas was great hitter, and would have been even if he had fewer than 500 HRs.
I think this is one reason why many people liked Mantle. He played injured but took the pain and played through it.
Becoming a DH later in your career is just giving in and taking the easy way out.
The position just needs to go away forever.
What other sport has different rules for different conferences?
Longevity is part of the game, I want these guys to EARN Cooperstown enshrinement.
As far as Thomas goes, he rubbed alot of people here in Chicago the wrong way. He was out of shape too much and was probably injured because of it. The final straw for me was when he came into spring training one year and was injured and was going to start the season on the DL. He had the nerve to publicly bash the Sox because they wouldn't give him more money.
He finished with respectable numbers, but I would call him a borderline HOFer for the reasons I mentioned about him being a DH.
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
<< <i>You can extend your career dramatically if all you do is bat and don't get injured running in the outfield and infield >>
Has this been discussed before? Frank Thomas was a great hitter who just happened to be fortunate enough to play in a league and time when there was a DH, so he could hang and still hit well into his upper 30s. Great sluggers with short careers from years earlier just didn't have that advantage. Players like Albert Belle, Juan Gonzalez and Danny Tartabull would have been able to play a lot longer if they were in a league that had a DH. Wait a minute. . .