cohodk called it
jmski52
Posts: 22,826 ✭✭✭✭✭
Credit where credit is due - cohodk called this drop with clarity and conviction - nice call, man.
I'm staying put.
I'm staying put.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
0
Comments
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Of course this means commodities along with the stock market will fall, once this all blows over the dollar will top out and then fall which means that Gold and Silver along with equities will once again take off. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see this sell off over and done in a few weeks or less with great buying opportunities in precious metals but even better opportunities in equities especially energy and mining stocks but many blue chips will be great buys too for the long run.
<< <i>He called it... but I *caused* it!!! >>
Hey I took a sealed yellow box of Maples on trade along with cash for some palladium a few days ago so I also helped push it down.
<< <i>I bought in on Jan 21. Straight sink-er-ooo since!!! >>
Please let us know when you sell it so we can load up....
In fact, I'd call a trend reversal right now (that gold has bottomed out), except that I know the timing isn't right, not yet anyway. But if I made the call now and gold takes off again in a couple months, will I get credit or accolades? Eventually, I'll be right.
<< <i>With all respect to Chodk, and assuming you're referring to the 'I believe gold has hit its highs for a while' thread, I'm not sure I'd give him that much credit. The timing was poor (off by 5 weeks), and the call non-specific (a trend reversal). It doesn't take much to call a trend reversal a few months into a very strong trend. Eventually, the trend is going to end.
In fact, I'd call a trend reversal right now (that gold has bottomed out), except that I know the timing isn't right, not yet anyway. But if I made the call now and gold takes off again in a couple months, will I get credit or accolades? Eventually, I'll be right. >>
I think the bottom isn't to far off but Gold still might sell off below $1,000 but I doubt it gets below $950.
As I recall, I gave him flack over his call because the direction and magnitude weren't that significant, imo. At this point, it's more significant than I expected and his timing was spot-on as I recall. I recall it because at the time of his call, I was personally very skeptical and blew off his thread prediction in totality, (although I didn't want to hurt his feelings by saying so.)
In fact, I'd call a trend reversal right now (that gold has bottomed out), except that I know the timing isn't right, not yet anyway. But if I made the call now and gold takes off again in a couple months, will I get credit or accolades?
Depends on what you say and how close your call comes to the eventual trend in terms of direction & magnitude.
Personally, this downturn was more than I expected although it doesn't change any of the parameters in my approach to pm investing.
So, what are you saying? Still down for the forseeable future? How much? How long?
Hey Norseman, you really ought to take a shot at the yearly prediction thread!!!!! Really!!!!!
I knew it would happen.
With all respect, that's a pretty vague call.
<< <i>Credit where credit is due - cohodk called this drop with clarity and conviction - nice call, man.
I'm staying put.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>As I recall, I gave him flack over his call because the direction and magnitude weren't that significant, imo. At this point, it's more significant than I expected and his timing was spot-on as I recall. I recall it because at the time of his call, I was personally very skeptical and blew off his thread prediction in totality, (although I didn't want to hurt his feelings by saying so.)
His thread was dated Oct 24 or 26 and the high was Dec 4, about 5-6 weeks later. The chart posted in the thread shows gold around 1050. Anyone who sold because of that thread missed out on about $175 in upside, would they have sold at the peak.
<< <i>So, what are you saying? Still down for the forseeable future? How much? How long?
My predictions are pretty well stated in the monthly trading threads. My call is for weakness and indecision in gold until very late March or very beginning of April, at which point the final phase of the 5+ year parabolic move will begin, taking gold to highs that are unthinkable... just imagine a move similar to oil in 2007... from ~60 to ~150 (2.5x) over about 18 months... after a nasty 4-6 month pull-back/consolidation from ~80 to ~55 like we're seeing now in gold.
But as PC has stated a lot of upside would have been left on the table if one exited in October. Essentially we're right back to those same levels from when the call was first made in late October.
roadrunner
I'm looking at the market through a different prism than most of the traders here, including cohodk, ProofCollection, and roadrunner as well. My horizon is longterm, and not only did I not exit in October, I added some 2009 AGEs from Apmex to my overall position in early November.
In that respect, cohodk's call has relevance for me as I wasn't motivated to sell on his intuition, but I did note what what might be coming. I bought in spite of what the short term might hold because I am continuing to build a position over time.
My bullish stance on gold is based on similar thoughts about the certainty that the upward phase will resume, which is similar to cohodk's, pc's and roadrunner's expectations, although there isn't much agreement on the timing.
I didn't leave anything on the table - I was adding to what was already there. I'm not taking anything off the table for the sake of piddling little price movements of a couple hundred bucks an ounce.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Are you talking about the thread in late October called "I believe gold has reached it highs for some time"?
With all respect, that's a pretty vague call. >>
I agree with SecondRepublic, in that the call was definitely on the vague side, with phrases such as "I tend to be early, rallies may still occur." Call was more of a long term to intermediate term calling for a down year for gold in 2010. Lots of trading still to be done before I would vote thumbs up on the call.
Had a novice position trader entered a short trade when the call was made, the vast majority would have been stopped out for a 12%+ loss (25%+ loss on the double ETFs that were mentioned in those posts). If someone who only buys physical like Jmski52 wants to say that it was a good call, go for it but I would not agree.
At this point, given the price movements, I would vote incomplete at best. I see it as more a call for the entire year of 2010 than for a couple of months and a minor 10% move either way. Basically gold rallied over 10% to new highs after the call was made, and is basically back to the same price as the date of the original call, maybe down 1% or 2%. That doesn't make for much of a call in my book, but others are welcome to have selective memories or use other criteria for their grading.
In any case, for traders using real money in real time, vague general posts with hedging phrases are mostly for entertainment value.
I do not know the percentages from 74.5 dollar to 80+.
Some one could have made a bundle in a couple short months late Nov. to early Feb..
All in all gold is holding up pretty well. Jealousy is a form of flattery I'm told
After his call on Oct. 26 gold rallied for a few more months; now it's in a correction. In all respect, I'm not sure how his Oct. 26 call predicts or explains any of that.
I'm with ski, leave it in the physical stash. Some of us are not sellers unless we can scoop up an obscene profit on the sale or maybe need a little cash for something. Usually, we are buyers when the extra cash is there, regardless of the price. Back when gold was 650 people were going through the same see saw opinions but we were buyers, we could see the housing market and we could see the stock market and we knew the banks were gonna take a hickey and a few years later, our meager stacking efforts have given us nearly double our initial buy in price. I'm still waiting to get into the obscene profit price range. Remember, all things come to he who waits, specially if he's stackin' the whole time...WOAH!!!
Parabolic...hummmmmm, cool.
his stance on the problems in and with the Euro and the relation to the USD, i think is his main focus. what i see Now is the weak dollar = strong DOW. in my "looking into things" with more and more companies making investments and making profits with overseas manufacture, processing and research, those companies % of foreign profits becomes higher and higher relative to domestic....needing a weak USD dollar. a strong USD stifles this. Will this eventually create a "Perfect Storm" for a crash and fall of the USD, no foreign country buying Treasuries at any price, the inflation factor kicking in and the POG going to the 2x and exen 5x of what we see today? i don't think this will happen tomorrow, or next month but maybe late this year, and on into '11 and '12. ...the disconnect between a weak dollar and a strong DOW can that happen? i didn't mention any banking because that's all a headache to me....off the soapbox
IMHO if cohodk makes another "high for gold" when it's 2200, 3000 or close to 5k, i for one will "let go" of all my physical. (if i feel that wil be the all-time-top) i'd also rather sell on the hysteria of it moving up and who can really call a top or a bottom?...oh, Sinclair? maybe. Sinclair says gold will go to 5K, but that was never in his original predictions and is going on others theories... yet i feel better leaving some on the table in regards to the POG still rising, rather than the other way around only because i think the paper vs physical spread of POG will be widest going up than down....i also think the ETF will not die regardless of the POG, titanium conspiracies, the part in Erin Burnett's hair, etc.
of course natural disasters, terrorist activites will have an affect, which no one can predict with certainty when those will happen, just that they will.
i
However, let's keep things in perspective. Gold has had 10 consecutive up years. Gold quadrupled in value from the low to the high during that run. Saying that gold may have a flat to down year after ten straight up years, isn't exactly going out on a limb (though perhaps it is here). Heck saying that gold may see a five year period of flat to down price action, wouldn't be going out on the limb. A person best be ready for that possibility, perhaps even the possibility of ten lean years after ten fat years, if gold is a dominant part of a person's financial picture.
What is always more relevant is what a person does with information going forward. The call was for a flat to down year, at a price that is about where gold is today. Keep in mind, that gold is basically unchanged since the call, it went up very fast right after the call, and now it is back down to where it was.
Saying that gold may have a flat to down year after ten straight up years, isn't exactly going out on a limb (though perhaps it is here). Heck saying that gold may see a five year period of flat to down price action, wouldn't be going out on the limb.
My feeling at the time was that cohodk was simply misguided and that if gold took a breather, it would be an insignificant pause. At that time, some were calling gold's move a breakout and either way I don't think that the underlying fundamentals have changed that will influence gold's rise from here on for the next 5 years. I don't see a 5 year flat period at all. I see a consolidation of gains and then a continuation up.
Just because the dollar shows relative strength doesn't negate the rules of economics and the sad fact that the government won't do anything to restrain spending.
Maybe if the Tea Partiers coalesce into a politically-unified voting block and are allowed to act upon their convictions, then the madness will stop. Maybe, maybe, maybe. Until then, the fundamentals for gold, the debt load, the unfunded liabilities, the un-exploded derivatives waiting on balance sheets, the coming commercial real estate re-sets...............all of those things tell me that it's not gonna be very flat in terms of pog.
I like Jim Sinclair for his expertise in government finance and his willingness to educate us about the nuances. Jim Willie is always an interesting read. Clive Maunde is as much charting as I can stand in one sitting, so I just read his commentaries. When you listen to a guy like David Walker, it gets downright scary. But I must tell you, for information and sourcing, for commentary and opinion on metals investment, you won't beat a place like this and the people who contribute here. My hat's off to ya'll.
I knew it would happen.
Was my call 5 weeks early? Yes. Did I state I am usually early? Yes. Why? Because I often underestimate the power of manias. Had you been a client of mine in 1999 you would have heard me say get out of the nasdaq at 4000, when Y2K fears were widespread and barbers became daytraders. Just a few months later it was 5000, and I imagine you would have hated me. (Some of mine did). However, just a few months after 5000, the naz was at 3200 on its way to 1200. So you would have to ask yourself, it is better to not make 25% or to lose 20%?
I will never contend to have "nailed the top/bottom", but I will call major trend reversals when they become apparent to me. If my comments appear to be "vague", then that is because I learned long ago that absolute conviction leads to clouded judgement and most often incorrect analysis.
Many people bought gold after my call, many. Some paid $2000 or more for proof AGE for "safety" in their IRAs. These people are now massively underwater. Where is the safety in losing money? They would have been better of buying a 1 yr treasury for "safety".
I mentioned around the middle of November that I was beginning to clear a campsite for the dollar bulls. This at a time when every major news outlet was calling for the death of the dollar, which did make a very brief FU (swear word) selloff about a week later. Then it started a rally, which to me, may be much more than a several month phenomona.
If you want to see much more "timely" market calls, go back to the first "GOLD/ECON" thread and see comments I made around the beginning of March 2008 regarding the probable top in silver and in early July regarding the possible top in oil. I also mentioned around August 2008 that the BRICs were about to crumble. And about the same time, I was asked where I thought the stock market could fall to. I believe I wrote that I saw 8000, with a chance at 7500, though that level wouldnt last for more than a few days. Did the markets bleed lower from Jan-Mar 2009? Yes. However that does not change the validity of the call in which the DOW did trade to 7449, but was back over 8000 the next day. All comments are on record in these threads and can be viewed with some effort if one so chooses.
Enough self back patting.
Some say gold is money, I see time as money. And not making money for a year, is in my opinion, the same as losing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've you're going to give Codhok credit for his call several months early then you need to give PMs several months to rally back before you make it official. --Jery >>
Exactly. I wont be correct unless gold closes 2010 lower than it did in 2009. We got a long way to go folks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I dont think one would have been killed by shorting gold at end of Oct. It only went up about 10% and for only a month. It wasnt like it went up 50%.
My call wasnt to short gold anyway, but rather to not buy it. I wasnt looking for a huge selloff, just a period of stagnant prices. My call came at a time when premiums were very high and those that did buy have been "killed" much more than one would have if short.
Those who primarily buy silver have fared my better as my call was at about $18 silver. It did go up about another buck, but is now down $2.50. The silver chart concerns me much more than gold does.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Exactly. I didn't expect the price to turn on a dime, in fact - I doubted that the metals would drop. I would never have shorted metals on that call, and I was mildly surprised when the downturn did happen.
Moreover, the second part of his call was in projecting a continuation of the overall bull market in gold in 12 to 18 months, which I also think is realistic, and probable.
Looking back, it makes sense that the pm market had to go into a consolidation at some point, and that is what I credit cohodk in identifying (or at least, anticipating) while everyone else was cheering on the rally in gold.
When I was younger, I traded and invested aggressively in hopes of maximizing the return on my assets. Since 1998, I've continued buying metals as a savings program - not trying to buy at the absolute lows, just trying to keep "buying in", and in the process I've made more money by a factor of 3X to 5X (depending on how you look at it) than I ever made in my best years of trading and aggressive investing.
I see no reason to think that metals will turn around and lose value. That day might come, but I don't see it right now. Obviously, I'm not in the "runaway deflationary scenario" camp. Even if I were in that camp, I think that being invested in physical pms wouldn't be a bad place to be.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I dont think one would have been killed by shorting gold at end of Oct. It only went up about 10% and for only a month. It wasnt like it went up 50%. >>
Sorry, my math is a bit different. The move from 1050 to 1225 is a 16.6% move. Most traders dream of nailing a trade where the underlying instrument moves 16% in 5 weeks.
A 16% move in an underlying instrument when traded with options or futures is HUGE.
On a $5400 Comex contract you'd have made or lost $17,500 on tha move. It might not be much to you, but to most of us on here, that's a significant amount.
You are also using leverage, which I do not condone. You also assume people are trading very short term options or futures. How much money would have have made had you sold covered options and let them expire?
There are many ways to work the numbers.
To get just a little personal, what was your total profit during the time period from late Oct to present? I know you were very bullish on gold the last 3 months, did you make that $17,500? You could PM me if you wish.
As I stated earlier, my main point was not to get caught up in the hype surrounding the run-up. We will all see, God willing, in about 10 months whether my prediction proved correct or not.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<<Gold was at 1225 for about 2 seconds. The next day it dropped something like $80.
You are also using leverage, which I do not condone.>>
My pm portfolio (the position that I've built over 12 years or so) can move that much on a daily basis on a normal day. I don't feel that buying & selling my entire holdings on a daily basis would be a good idea. Even less so for a leveraged position. I agree with cohodk on that.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Gold was at 1225 for about 2 seconds. The next day it dropped something like $80.
You are also using leverage, which I do not condone. You also assume people are trading very short term options or futures. How much money would have have made had you sold covered options and let them expire? >>
Whether or not you condone it, you've got to realize that the people on this message board use ALL means of investing in PMs... physical, paper, leveraged, unleveraged, ETFs, options, futures, you name it. You can't make comments like that and assume that we all trade the same things you do.
<< <i>To get just a little personal, what was your total profit during the time period from late Oct to present? I know you were very bullish on gold the last 3 months, did you make that $17,500? You could PM me if you wish. >>
I made well into 6 figures on the run-up (during the whole run from $995 or so, but most of it after 1050 as I added to and grew my position with the profits), but lost some of it back on the subsequent decline.
As I stated earlier, my main point was not to get caught up in the hype surrounding the run-up. We will all see, God willing, in about 10 months whether my prediction proved correct or not. >>
Yes, we will see very shortly, I think we'll have our answer by mid-year. Im anticipating that I can make well into the 7 figures on the next run if it goes how I expect it to, and that will be starting with a 5 figure account. I plan to play the next run more conservatively and constantly take profits during the run-up rather than aggressively growing the position.
Edited to add:
You are also correct that it was only above $1200 for a few days; however, with uncovered options or with futures positions, or shorted ETF shares, margin calls or losses would have encouraged most traders to cut losses somewhere along the $175 adverse move. It takes pretty big cajones, and a pretty big account to ride out such an adverse move. Any traders who read your post and put their full faith in it (and I'm not suggesting that anyone actually did), might have even increased their short position as it moved up against them. The only question is how much room for error did they leave themselves before forced liquidation? Speculating about this is probably not worthwhile, but everyone gets the idea.
I dont think one would have been killed by shorting gold at end of Oct. It only went up about 10% and for only a month.>>
Disagree. No one I know would have stayed short for that interval and their trade would have blown up. It was a 15% move point to point.
Ironically, if someone would have gone LONG at the time of your gold topping post they would have had a very successful trade using a 3% trailing stop.
It all depends how you play the game and what time frame. Trading paper and physical might as well be polar opposites. Folks can read into a statement like yours many ways depending on interpretation. If you read your post as a trader it was a bad call. If you read it as a long term investor your call hasn't played out yet. If people took heart to your call and didn't buy gold on the way up from 1100-1200 then they are thankful for your advise.
Making a call and having it move 15% the "wrong" way first is too wide a berth imo to be calling it right. I know LOTS of folks who have gotten killied or shaken out of their trades and missing the real move by being early.
Again, I think you are a top shelf trader but I can't give you any street credit on that particular call. ( not that you care are even looking for some. if you're like me you could care less) MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......