No traction at all.
Weiss
Posts: 9,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
Will we see $900?
Just means I can fit more in the wheelbarrow.
Just means I can fit more in the wheelbarrow.
We are like children who look at print and see a serpent in the last letter but one, and a sword in the last.
--Severian the Lame
--Severian the Lame
0
Comments
Hopefully even lower! Do you honestly have so much gold right now that you would be financially ruined if gold hit $600 again? Are you so old that you have stopped the accumulation process and have bugun to look for sweetspots to start selling your hoard to supplement retirement? Do you own a few 100 oz COMEX contracts that you had hoped to make a quick buck on?
If you answered no to all of the above, you should be cheerleading a gold downward spiral!
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>The lower it goes the more I can buy! Hope silver follows it down. >>
Looks like silver is leading the way ! ! !
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
<< <i>Gold can hit 640 and I suspect most of us will be comfortable. Regardless of how low it goes, it is better holding physical than paper...buying opportunity. DYODD, don't play if you can't pay. We all knew this would happen, good luck! So...maybe you want to buy sp500, the index is about an oz...hummmmmmmmmmmm and it's up 5? It's nice to hold PM and watch the show knowing that you got the goods. >>
Comfortable?--I hope.
Remember a 50% haircut is one thing, but dont forget the time element. 1 year or more down, another 1 or 2 higher to get back to even. Total time could be 5 years. Thats 10% of ones investing lifetime. Time is more costly than the monetary loss. Im not saying gold will go to $600, just commenting on the psychological aspects that no one ever considers.
And if it did go to $600, did gold live up to your expectations and did it support its "worth"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I own just over 30 oz, so im definately small time.....but i'd gladly see gold hit $600 at this point in time since I have another 15-20 years worth of stacking to do.
<< <i>"Will we see $900?"
Hopefully even lower! Do you honestly have so much gold right now that you would be financially ruined if gold hit $600 again? Are you so old that you have stopped the accumulation process and have bugun to look for sweetspots to start selling your hoard to supplement retirement? Do you own a few 100 oz COMEX contracts that you had hoped to make a quick buck on?
If you answered no to all of the above, you should be cheerleading a gold downward spiral! >>
That is like asking, "don't you wish the value of the dollar would decrease? Do you have so much cash that if its value were to be nearly cut in half, you would be ruined?" No, I'm not interested in the gold I have been purchasing the last 15 years to go from being valued at US $1,090 to US $600 in the hopes it will some day go back up. I guess if gold hits $50 an ounce, you would be thrilled? Gold is money.
<< <i>"And if it did go to $600, did gold live up to your expectations and did it support its "worth"? "
I own just over 30 oz, so im definately small time.....but i'd gladly see gold hit $600 at this point in time since I have another 15-20 years worth of stacking to do. >>
And what if in 15 years it was still worth $1000? Thats a ot of time lost waiting for promise. Im not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility, and since we buy gold "just in case", this is a scenerio that should be prepared for.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's all relative. I suppose now that the US government has decided to get their spending under control (???!!!!), and since taxes have been lowered for 95% of us (that's what the man said, right?), we can come out of the bomb shelters and look at the sun and clear blue sky once again.
Hey, the dollar looks good in comparison to the other fiat currencies right now. Cool.
I am very glad that I got out of my retirement accounts and put everything into pms back in '07. I'm not still waiting for the stock market to "recover". (or was it '08? Either way, it was a good thing to get out of paper.)
Granted, there will probably come a time when it will be smart to go back into something else - maybe stocks, maybe real estate. With the Administration and Congress that we have right now, now is not that time. They are anti-capital, anti-private property, pro-tax, pro-government largesse, and pro-government freebies for all. I want to see a turnaround in that arena first. Kinda like Reagan.
I knew it would happen.
I just am under the impression that many people believe gold going higher is a guaranteed winner. It may or may not be. Always be prepared for the unexpected.
By the time you see a turnaround, your holdings will already be down 40% and potential other investments up 20%. Thats a lot of ground to make up.
Kind of derailed the thread a little, but back to the OP, the dollar is very strong right now and thats a very difficult headwind for gold to fight.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A compelling set of fundamentals...by David Walker
The US didnt have spending under control in the 80s and 90s either. Gold didnt fair that well.
I would draw your attention to the percentages in the article listed in comparison with earlier years.
I just am under the impression that many people believe gold going higher is a guaranteed winner. It may or may not be. Always be prepared for the unexpected.
I would strongly agree with you that gold isn't a guarantee of anything. I would also strongly agree with you that you should prepare for the unexpected.
By the time you see a turnaround, your holdings will already be down 40% and potential other investments up 20%. Thats a lot of ground to make up.
I would take a different view of this, however. By the time you see a devaluation coming, it's already over. The blade cuts both ways.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>"And if it did go to $600, did gold live up to your expectations and did it support its "worth"? "
I own just over 30 oz, so im definately small time.....but i'd gladly see gold hit $600 at this point in time since I have another 15-20 years worth of stacking to do. >>
I am in the same boat looking 15 to 20 years out. I look at this money like gambling, I have invested it and don't expect to need it for a very long time and could loose it without my life coming to an end. There is no guarantee. If you are a day trader, malox must be your best friend as this is and will remain volitle at best. I am in this for the ride and look for those opportunities to add at the best advantage. Hell I could be dead by Friday, no one knows but I feel in 15 - 20 years I will be happy with what I have.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>
<< <i>"And if it did go to $600, did gold live up to your expectations and did it support its "worth"? "
I own just over 30 oz, so im definately small time.....but i'd gladly see gold hit $600 at this point in time since I have another 15-20 years worth of stacking to do. >>
And what if in 15 years it was still worth $1000? Thats a ot of time lost waiting for promise. Im not saying this will happen, but it is a possibility, and since we buy gold "just in case", this is a scenerio that should be prepared for. >>
But if it is worth $1000 in 2020 money I will be very very happy. This is why you spread your investments into different vehicles.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
Hong kong/Long Beach JUNE Table #838
MACAU
emgworldwide@gmail.com
Cell: 512.808.3197
EMERGING MARKET GROUP
PCGS, NGC, CCE & NCS, CGC, PSA, Auth. Dealer
<< <i>traction in the price of gold really shouldn't be all that dependent on day-to-day developments, to wit:
A compelling set of fundamentals...by David Walker
The US didnt have spending under control in the 80s and 90s either. Gold didnt fair that well.
I would draw your attention to the percentages in the article listed in comparison with earlier years.
I just am under the impression that many people believe gold going higher is a guaranteed winner. It may or may not be. Always be prepared for the unexpected.
I would strongly agree with you that gold isn't a guarantee of anything. I would also strongly agree with you that you should prepare for the unexpected.
By the time you see a turnaround, your holdings will already be down 40% and potential other investments up 20%. Thats a lot of ground to make up.
I would take a different view of this, however. By the time you see a devaluation coming, it's already over. The blade cuts both ways. >>
Gold was just devalued by 12%, did you see it?
The only thing I expect is the unexpected.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The US didnt have spending under control in the 80s and 90s either. Gold didnt fair that well.
I just am under the impression that many people believe gold going higher is a guaranteed winner. It may or may not be. Always be prepared for the unexpected.
By the time you see a turnaround, your holdings will already be down 40% and potential other investments up 20%. Thats a lot of ground to make up.
Kind of derailed the thread a little, but back to the OP, the dollar is very strong right now and thats a very difficult headwind for gold to fight. >>
That attitude is reflected in many of the TV commercials hawking gold. According to G. Gordon Liddy, gold is "the investment that goes up, not down!". It seems to me that all investments go up AND down.
Again, things change. Gold has quadrupled from its lows, and has had ten consecutive up years. No one knows what the future brings, but five lean years for gold or even ten would not be out of place as markets cycle in and out of fashion. If it wasn't gold but some other investment that has had ten straight up years, and has quadrupled in price, would the bullish arguments that come to mind still hold water?
Will folks still be stacking if there are ten lean years for gold, with other investments doing much, much better? Most folks will not, most will go to where the action is, the performance is, it is human nature.
I see the possibility of a commercial real estate crash dragging everything down along with it.
In fact, I would think that is at least a 50:50 possibility. Now, that would be deflationary upon first impact.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>But looking at gold in a different light there are some things to take into account other than the daily give and take on spot and the accompanying prognostications. For example, the Chinese made substantial purchases when gold was at about 1100 (maybe they got it for a little less) and my recollection of Chinese business sense is that it is pretty bankable. I doubt that they bought at a foolish price, in effect they set the bottom last year with that purchase so maybe we all got a free ride on the dragon. ... >>
I don't get the Chinese argument. For every unit of gold they bought, they probably bought 10 to 50 units of U. S. treasury bonds. Are both investments going to do well over the long term? Sounds unlikely, though it could happen. It seems more likely that the Chinese are hedging their bets on their huge bond position with a touch of gold.
<< <i>It is an interesting perspective, thirty ounces likely puts a person in the top 1% of physical gold ownership in the country, and yet that person still feels "small time." Top 1% and small time... As for wanting the price to decline, be careful for what a person wishes for. What if the decline is 50% in price and takes 20 years? Still think it sounds peachy keen? The decline only sounds good, if there is a steep climb up afterwards, and there is no guarantee of that.
Again, things change. Gold has quadrupled from its lows, and has had ten consecutive up years. No one knows what the future brings, but five lean years for gold or even ten would not be out of place as markets cycle in and out of fashion. If it wasn't gold but some other investment that has had ten straight up years, and has quadrupled in price, would the bullish arguments that come to mind still hold water?
Will folks still be stacking if there are ten lean years for gold, with other investments doing much, much better? Most folks will not, most will go to where the action is, the performance is, it is human nature. >>
Here is the problem...IF gold soared to $5,000 by the end of the year, guess how much of my stash I would sell....absolutely zero. However, because my salary wont increase 5 fold in that time, my purchasing power for gold is dramatically reduced. So now im put in a "no man's land" with regards to the metal. I wont sell cuz I dont need the cash, plus enjoy the security of gold ownership, yet im now forced out of the game because I can no longer justify buying at those new levels.
Scenario #2.....gold comes crashing down to $600 or even lower. As a VERY active gold "stockpiler", I can now buy more ounces of gold for the same amount of labor. Since im 34, and have no plans to retire, nor do I need the money, it would be much better long run for scenario #2 to occur for me. Get "frozen out" of the game, or buy gold at a super discount while taking a very modest hit on my current stash? EASY choice!!!
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>I'm sure Gecko will be the first to tell us that his whole argument here is predicated upon the hope/expectation that gold will have risen substantially in value prior to his desire/need to sell.
Because I dont really have any of the money I spend on gold/silver "earmarked" for any other purchases, I can truly say that I dont care if gold is way up or way down when im in my 60's. Not only am I fortunate in having a defined benefit pension, but im also an aggressive buyer of mutual funds. Add to this my home's potential future value, and I dont anticipate any dire need to pull cash out of my gold reserves in retirement. Having said that, of course it would be nice if my gold and silver "investments" at least kept pace with inflation for all those years. Since I view my metals as purely an "insurance policy" against a global fiat meltdown, I plan on turning over whatever I have accumulated to my son upon my passing. The only real scenario in which I will "use" my reserves prior to that point in time is if the world's economy reverts back to precious metals as a medium of exchange. Like I implied previously, my perspective is probably MASSIVELY different than most people's due to both my age and reasons for buying the metal.
<< <i>I think there is another TSHTF devaluation scenerio that PM holders do not see. Do you see it?
I see the possibility of a commercial real estate crash dragging everything down along with it.
In fact, I would think that is at least a 50:50 possibility. Now, that would be deflationary upon first impact. >>
Possibly, but I see another that directly effects the value of PM's.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I think there is another TSHTF devaluation scenerio that PM holders do not see. Do you see it?
I see the possibility of a commercial real estate crash dragging everything down along with it.
In fact, I would think that is at least a 50:50 possibility. Now, that would be deflationary upon first impact. >>
Possibly, but I see another that directly effects the value of PM's. >>
ETF fraud that bumps Pm's......that would supersuck!!!
<< <i>I think there is another TSHTF devaluation scenerio that PM holders do not see. Do you see it?
I see the possibility of a commercial real estate crash dragging everything down along with it.
In fact, I would think that is at least a 50:50 possibility. Now, that would be deflationary upon first impact. >>
I've been seeing that for a while. Lots of places going under and then the lot just sits there. My old CC store still has nothing in it and it's been almost a year.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think there is another TSHTF devaluation scenerio that PM holders do not see. Do you see it?
I see the possibility of a commercial real estate crash dragging everything down along with it.
In fact, I would think that is at least a 50:50 possibility. Now, that would be deflationary upon first impact. >>
Possibly, but I see another that directly effects the value of PM's. >>
ETF fraud that bumps Pm's......that would supersuck!!! >>
Gotta be Tungsten...
<< <i>
<< <i>It is an interesting perspective, thirty ounces likely puts a person in the top 1% of physical gold ownership in the country, and yet that person still feels "small time." Top 1% and small time... As for wanting the price to decline, be careful for what a person wishes for. What if the decline is 50% in price and takes 20 years? Still think it sounds peachy keen? The decline only sounds good, if there is a steep climb up afterwards, and there is no guarantee of that.
Again, things change. Gold has quadrupled from its lows, and has had ten consecutive up years. No one knows what the future brings, but five lean years for gold or even ten would not be out of place as markets cycle in and out of fashion. If it wasn't gold but some other investment that has had ten straight up years, and has quadrupled in price, would the bullish arguments that come to mind still hold water?
Will folks still be stacking if there are ten lean years for gold, with other investments doing much, much better? Most folks will not, most will go to where the action is, the performance is, it is human nature. >>
Here is the problem...IF gold soared to $5,000 by the end of the year, guess how much of my stash I would sell....absolutely zero. However, because my salary wont increase 5 fold in that time, my purchasing power for gold is dramatically reduced. So now im put in a "no man's land" with regards to the metal. I wont sell cuz I dont need the cash, plus enjoy the security of gold ownership, yet im now forced out of the game because I can no longer justify buying at those new levels.
Scenario #2.....gold comes crashing down to $600 or even lower. As a VERY active gold "stockpiler", I can now buy more ounces of gold for the same amount of labor. Since im 34, and have no plans to retire, nor do I need the money, it would be much better long run for scenario #2 to occur for me. Get "frozen out" of the game, or buy gold at a super discount while taking a very modest hit on my current stash? EASY choice!!! >>
Easy to say now. Let's see how many folks with that plan follow through after a long and depressing decline. I'm not talking about the recent quick down move that was followed with a quick bounce up to the highs, but a slow water torture decline over many years. How many clear thinking folks keep stacking if other investments seem safer and are performing much better? What is the point of doing so? Is that rational behavior or is it an irrational and emotional attachment to a certain asset?
I see some strangeness in rooting for a decline, unless that person is absolutely sure the up curve will be there when it comes time to sell. Again, there is no guarantee of that. What if $900 leads to $600 and then back to $400 and then all the way back to $300 over the next decade? Maybe you'd still be stacking at $300, but for every person that says they will and follows through, 10 folks that have the plan now, will have moved most of that money to better performing asset classes. Again, it is human nature.
For every person that says they will stop buying if gold rockets up, there will be 10 new buyers as greed takes over and everyone wants in. That is how markets work, and how tops are formed, with a relative maximum number of buyers, few sellers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Guesses on my other devaluing scenerio are all incorrect. Actually not even close. My thought has a DIRECT impact on the value of PM's. And by value I dont not mean moral or pshychological. >>
New strike somewhere? Improved technology for recovery/refining?
I don't see anything in the technology side of gold all of a sudden making hundreds/thousands of tons of gold available. Should the ETF's be found to be semi-fraudulent, or Tungsten bars found to be widespread those might hit the paper prices but the physical (in-hand) prices would rise. The only readily available supplies of gold to be dumped would be from:
1. gold ETF's (assuming it's all there)
2. Central banks (assuming it's all there)
3. Asian holders start dumping in mass (Indian coins and jewelry, etc.).
4. Rumors of thousands of tons of hidden gold treasure in the South Pacific stolen from the Japanese during WW2...or something to that effect.
5. Mass nationalization of all gold/silver mines such that each nation keeps sovereign rights to their resources.
Hard to see those being likely sources at the moment though I could see #5 trending toward reality in a total SHTFS where every nation is on its own. One could easily see Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Peru, South Africa, Turkey, China, Greece, Ghana, Congo, Indonesia and a host of other mining nations all of a sudden claiming all the metals for themselves. During the final crash of 2008 that took gold down from around $900 to $700 the ETF GLD barely dropped its inventory so I don't see that as a ready source.
roadrunner
Ok, I'll play the "cohodk's guess the deflation scenario game" again.
The central banking system continues to unwind trillions in worthless derivatives over the next 5 years, essentially neutralizing any effects of money creation by the central banks. Newly-created money continues to flow into the stock markets, preventing a crash; social entitlement programs continue to pay out as the national debt soars out of control.
The dollar continues its long term decline as the only solution to the continuation of the US Government's over-stretched committments at home and around the world.
The Fed plays a delicate game of balancing the liquidation sale vs. over-inflating the money supply. The rest of the world stops buying US Treasuries and quietly proceeds to diversify them into hard assets and properties around the world.
Then, one day somewhere in Indonesia, a butterfly sneezes.............
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>New strike somewhere? Improved technology for recovery/refining?
I don't see anything in the technology side of gold all of a sudden making hundreds/thousands of tons of gold available. Should the ETF's be found to be semi-fraudulent, or Tungsten bars found to be widespread those might hit the paper prices but the physical (in-hand) prices would rise. The only readily available supplies of gold to be dumped would be from:
1. gold ETF's (assuming it's all there)....DEFINATELY NOT ALL THERE (PERHAPS MAYBE 1/10TH)
2. Central banks (assuming it's all there).....NUMBERS HERE COULD BE PROPPED UP A BIT TO ENCOURAGE CONFIDENCE
3. Asian holders start dumping in mass (Indian coins and jewelry, etc.).....POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS GOLD SURGES SOMETHING LIKE 35% IN A DAY OR WEEK, IN WHICH CASE IT FALLS BACK ANYWAY TO PRE SURGE PRICES
4. Rumors of thousands of tons of hidden gold treasure in the South Pacific stolen from the Japanese during WW2...or something to that effect.....NICE PREMISE FOR A MOVIE
5. Mass nationalization of all gold/silver mines such that each nation keeps sovereign rights to their resources.....VERY POSSIBLE, YET WOULD HAVE OPPOSITE EFFECT, THUS RAISING GOLD PRICES DUE TO THE PERCEPTION OF THIS "NEW STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT" METAL
Hard to see those being likely sources at the moment though I could see #5 trending toward reality in a total SHTFS where every nation is on its own. One could easily see Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Peru, South Africa, Turkey, China, Greece, Ghana, Congo, Indonesia and a host of other mining nations all of a sudden claiming all the metals for themselves. During the final crash of 2008 that took gold down from around $900 to $700 the ETF GLD barely dropped its inventory so I don't see that as a ready source.
roadrunner >>
<< <i>Granted, there will probably come a time when it will be smart to go back into something else - maybe stocks, maybe real estate. With the Administration and Congress that we have right now, now is not that time. They are anti-capital, anti-private property, pro-tax, pro-government largesse, and pro-government freebies for all. I want to see a turnaround in that arena first. Kinda like Reagan. >>
I definitely understand your logic, especially in the context of a PM "enthuisiast"...but markets are very often counter intuitive, for example how did you feel about investing in stocks at te beginning of the Clinton administration and all of the "socialized medicine and the unanimous view of the right that the Clintons would lead to anti business and anti capitalism? Oof course in the view of most of the pm "enthusiasts" that would have been the time to sellstock load up on PMs and wait for the next "pro business "anti tax" and 'pro small government" then load up on stocks again, we all know how that worked and obviously there are always other factors at play.
Not picking on your logic, most on this board would agree with you. I say this from experience, my biggest investment mistakes in the past were based on what I thought were very logical foundations, that I dupped my self into believing was a black and white or a clear decision and my conviction led me to be over confident and overexposed it's just that Investing is much more of an art than a black and white science, especialy when it is just the fallable human brain coming up with that science and when "investors" think their investment premise is very logical and therefore more infallable in their mind, they should be wary, very wary.
Well firstly, Hillarycare was shot dead in the water, so the impact of it was never felt. And Bill made a mid-course correction after the 1994 Congressional Elections and became a moderate president.
No investment using real money should be predicated on a rigid methodology that leaves no room for mid-course corrections.
Nobody's got everything figured out, and that's the only way to think if you want to survive financially. jmho.
I knew it would happen.
agreed
<< <i>$1000 is the floor boys. >>
Dollar 79.48 I think gold $1,080 holding strong. Dollar was 74.5 at $1,225 gold.