A panda migration?

gecko109

Silver Baron's recent F.U.N. metals report has reinforced my suspicions/theory on the current "Great Panda Migration". Although there was bullion gold galore at this years show, only a very tiny fraction of it was made up of those cuddly bears. What has been happening in the past 2-3 years is that a few well known (in panda circles) Americans of Chinese descent in this country have been buying every panda they can get their hands on. What are they doing with all these coins? Its simple...."re-exporting" them to China!

For the great majority of the panda years (1982-present), it was actually illegal for Chinese citizens to own gold. Therefore almost every single gold panda was exported to other parts of the world, with the U.S. getting the lion's share. This came to a halt in 2009, when they were allowed to buy gold legally for the 1st time in over 50 years! Now, with China's new prosperity and newly "minted" millionaires, it seems gold pandas have become quite a popular way for these people to collect gold. With miniscule mintages, compared to any other major Government issued bullion, and a huge Chinese population, the supply of these coins are in fact drying up rapidly.

Just how low are the mintages? For statistics up to date to 2006, the highest single mintage of 1 oz gold pandas was the 1988 at 289,000 pieces. The lowest is the 1982 at around 13,000 pieces struck. For the U.S. gold eagle series, 2001 leads the way in LOWEST mintage with 143,000 pieces struck, while there are at least 4 different years with mintages past the million mark! A vast majority of the panda years fall into the 23,000-55,000 range for mintages, thus making them quite scarce when considering the potential demand! I have read that there were more 1978 K-Rands minted than there were 1 oz gold pandas from 1982-2004!!! That is simply startling when you begin to think about just how few pandas there actually are.

Prices of pandas are also confirming this migratory species. It is very difficult to consistantly find pandas selling on par with their counterpart bullion coins. Ebay closing prices are almost always higher for pandas (any given year) than they are for GAE's, Maples, or K-Rands. In fact, common date pandas are even outpacing the popular U.S. gold Buffalos. And im sure that after a few more years of production, the Buff's premiums will soon fade.

I am currently about 43% done with my gold panda complete (139 coin) set (as expressed by weight, not number of coins), and its becomming harder and harder to find the coins I need for anywhere near melt prices. I feel that this trend will continue as more and more of these wonderful coins are sent back to the motherland. In 15-20 years, pandas will be an endangered, if not extinct coin species in this country!

Ciccio

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Gecko. You have been saying that for long time and I agree with your point of view.

One question: 139 is the total nbr of coins to complete the set or is the nbr of the coins you own?
Do you know where I can find on the internet a list of the complete set (1982-today) by denomination/weight/metal? Included special edition, palladium and copper (it should be only one).

Here is the lowest mintage. At a first sight I thought it was a fake (I remember you saying that the first check is the denomination).

gecko109

Ciccio, the 1982 gold panda issue is different than all the subsequent years in 2 important ways. First, its the only gold panda without a denomination. Secondly, its the only year where there are 4 sizes, the 1/20th oz debuted in 1983.

While your coin looks genuine to me, its NOT the lowest mintage. Your coin is the 1982 half ounce panda. While it has a lower than usual mintage for 1/2 ouncers at about 13,000, its not even among the top 3 in lowest mintage halves. That title is held by the absolute single rarest regular issue panda of all 139 coins......the 1998 half had a mintage of just 4,168 coins!!!!


The 139 coin total is the total number of regular issued gold pandas 1982-2009. That includes all 5 sizes for each of the past 27 years, and the 4 sizes for 1982. I currently own about 75 different gold panda coins (+/- 5). The total weight of all 139 gold pandas is just over 53 troy ounces. My collection contains just over 23 troy ounces of pandas. I have just 1 duplicate gold panda in my set, I bet you can guess which one!

I dont know where a "master list" of all pandas ever made can be found though since I only collect the regular issued (non-proof) gold pandas.

Zubie

Hey Gecko,
Not to change subject, but, what is your take with the Silver Pandas? I don't know much about them and was just about to order a sheet from Apmex. Thought maybe that would be my next "collection". I have read recently that China is encouraging thier citizens to buy gold and silver. Must be part of their plan to take over the world huh???

Ciccio

<< <i>While your coin looks genuine to me, its NOT the lowest mintage. >>







<< <i>I have just 1 duplicate gold panda in my set, I bet you can guess which one! >>


I'd guess the 1982, but it's just a guess. Which one??



<< <i>
I dont know where a "master list" of all pandas ever made can be found though since I only collect the regular issued (non-proof) gold pandas. >>


Pandaamerica.com has a large inventory with mintage, but they don't have all the dates though. I will look further on the internet.
It's just curiosity, I can't afford a set (not even one ounce for the time being!).

Thanks - Ciao

gsa1fan

1998 1/2oz +2 is my guess?

gecko109

<< <i>Hey Gecko,
Not to change subject, but, what is your take with the Silver Pandas? I don't know much about them and was just about to order a sheet from Apmex. Thought maybe that would be my next "collection". I have read recently that China is encouraging thier citizens to buy gold and silver. Must be part of their plan to take over the world huh??? >>




Not exactly sure what China's motivation is, but I can tell you that collecting the silver panda UNC series....1989-present....is a fun and inexpensive pursuit. I used to collect all things panda, and had that set as well as the VERY pricey silver proof set (1983-1996). When buying silver UNCS, I would at 1st avoid any varieties (there are at least a dozen) and just concentrate on the date run. UNC silver pandas come in satiny lustrous to downright DMPL as far as surfaces. It would be a fun challenge to match your set.....i'd shoot for DMPL coins if I were doing it again. The only real rarity is the 2000 issue and that will cost you about $100. All the other years should be had for less than $50, with most in the $20-$40 range. Once you complete the date run, if panda fever has caught you, then you may move on to the varieties. The 1999 Large Date, Serif 1 will cost around $200, unless you can cherry pick one for $50. The 2000 "Mirrored Reverse" will run you another $225 or so, and that one is very tough to cherry. Then there are at least a half dozen dates that come with large date/small date varieties.

And if after all that, you STILL arent satisfied with your panda pursuits, you can then tackle the 12 piece silver proof set. That is a tough set that will cost anywhere between $3,000 and $4,500 depending on what grades you are chasing. You can get away with buying your UNCS raw, but even I wouldnt attempt to put together another proof set unless they were either NGC or PCGS pieces!!! Just far too expensive to even make 1 mistake!

Best of luck in your collecting adventures! And check out my youtube video I made with my 12 piece proof silver panda set which I sadly no longer own.


Youtube video

gecko109

<< <i>1998 1/2oz +2 is my guess? >>




You win.

Zubie

Perfect, thanks so much for the info. Exactly what I was looking for. I've never really looked into pandas, but, the 2010 caught my eye, and now I think I may have to start the unc.
Thanks again, Tim

trozau

Here is a sample of the currently popular gold jewelry and objet d'art being sold in Hong Kong and China:





Added Note: The popular sellers (if not jewelry) are the gold art objects that represent the lunar year animals (year of birth lunar animal), gods and deities (for long life and good fortune), Feng Shui inspired (like pears, money toad, dragon fish, etc.) and medallic & bars pieces (with good luck and fortune inscriptions).

sbeverly

Silver Baron's recent F.U.N. metals report has reinforced my suspicions/theory on the current "Great Panda Migration". Although there was bullion gold galore at this years show, only a very tiny fraction of it was made up of those cuddly bears.

I just got back from FUN, and it sure was fun.

I agree that the gold Panda made up the smallest % of gold coins sold but, this year there was there more gold Pandas as well as dealers selling them than last year.

Last year I took a bunch a 1/10 ounce gold eagles to trade/barter for gold pandas. I had to kick in extra $ because of the premium that the pandas brought.

This year it was just the opposite. Also, this year I was able to buy the common dates for the exact same price that they were getting last year. Thats with gold in the $800 something price range in Jan of last year. (don't remember the exact number)

I bought a graded 1986 ms69 that closed out my 1/10 ounce collection at a super price. The dealer who imo is the go to panda dealer and a super great guy sold it to me. I felt so guilty that I gave him $10 more. He looked at me like I was from Mars. We had a great laugh over it.

I came back with 22 gold pandas most at or near melt.

The Silver Pandas seem to be almost non-existent. Very few at the show (except the new 2010) They also,seem to have dried up on ebay.

I would have to agree with Phil's comment about the Pandas heading back to China. I heard that comment from others. When inquiring about
several pandas at the Majestic Rarities booth, I was told that they were already sold and heading back to China.

Justacommeman

<<I would have to agree with Phil's comment about the Pandas heading back to China. I heard that comment from others. When inquiring about
several pandas at the Majestic Rarities booth, I was told that they were already sold and heading back to China>>

I'm in China now and hopefully will be heading to "Beiing Road" tomorrow for a little shopping. I suspect that you are correct and I'll see pandas everywhere..................MJ

trozau

<< <i>I bought a graded 1986 ms69 that closed out my 1/10 ounce collection at a super price.
I came back with 22 gold pandas most at or near melt. >>


Good for you! It is always great when your series is up to date and all you have to worry about are the new year issues.
I still need to get my 2010 1 troz gold and will have to get 2 because I want to give 1 as a wedding present to my daughter and her husband-to-be when they get married this year.

sbeverly

I want to give 1 as a wedding present to my daughter and her husband-to-be

Thats a great gift...Also, I just wanted to let you know that I'm up for adoption.

trozau

<< <i>I'm in China now and hopefully will be heading to "Beiing Road" tomorrow for a little shopping. I suspect that you are correct and I'll see pandas everywhere..................MJ >>


I would be curious to know if you do run into them in the China shops. Please post about your findings and experiences. I did not seek out coin shops but the jewelry places I saw last year in Hong Kong had mostly gold art objects, medallions and bars with Chinese Character inscriptions for sale along side regular jewelry. I did not see a single China Panda gold coin. Got 4 of the gold art obects (a snake - for my son, an ox - for my daughter, old Chinese couple - for me and my wife's 25th anniversary this year and a Feng Shui money toad - for good luck and fortune).

trozau

<< <i>I want to give 1 as a wedding present to my daughter and her husband-to-be

Thats a great gift...Also, I just wanted to let you know that I'm up for adoption. >>


LOL I have previously given my nephews and nieces anywhere from a quarter to half oz gold pandas as wedding present (and since my daughter is aware of this, she probably expects to get one from me).