<< <i> The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside. >>
Could and doing are two different things. In the now the Aussie and the Cando have held up GREAT. Could it change? Yes, up, down or sideways. I was basically illustrating that with all the dollars strength against the euro that these currencies have held up well. They have. MJ >>
The Aussie is down about 3.10%, the Cando about 2.85%, the Euro, about 3.6% since last weeks peaks. So yes, some very modest outperformance. The British pound and Yen, have outperformed to greater measure. I have a high degree of confidence in my assessment above.
<< <i> The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside. >>
Could and doing are two different things. In the now the Aussie and the Cando have held up GREAT. Could it change? Yes, up, down or sideways. I was basically illustrating that with all the dollars strength against the euro that these currencies have held up well. They have. MJ >>
The Aussie is down about 3.10%, the Cando about 2.85%, the Euro, about 3.6% since last weeks peaks. So yes, some very modest outperformance. The British pound and Yen, have outperformed to greater measure. I have a high degree of confidence in my assessment above. >>
As do I with mine. My horizon is longer then yours and I'm basing mine on fundies and technicals. Down the road both of these currencies will be a par or better then the dollar. I won't pick the date. My point is that commodity currencies ( Aussie and Cando) usually gets hit the hardest on dollar strength especially when oil and gold get hit hard. This time they didn't. That's all. As you say, it's all relative.MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
However those holding PM's should be prepared for currency realignments that will cause 20% or greater loss of value. And dont expect them to go up year after year after year.
With gold having closed the year at $1096 I'm pretty confident it will exceed that to make it 10 years in a row.
Today's bounce off $1087 was very close to one of the JS angels at $1089. Gold pretty much petered out at the next higher angel of $1156. Next one down is $1024 followed by $1000. Gold certainly looks determined to fall under the trend line formed from the November 2008 lows. Gold now at around 8-9% above the 200 dma. GDX is only 3% above it's 200 dma. Both of those are already in the buy zones if based on previous 2009 lows. But things will probably still get a bit cheaper by next Tuesday. The IH&S neckline still looks inviting at the $1045-$1050 level. A close retest of that would fullfill many requirements and be the ideal point to rebound.
Gold and silver miners are on sale. I nibbled on about 2% of my trading account for GSS & AZK. I see about 20 miners that are in the seriously oversold category already. Oddly, Cohodk's favorite TRE is one of only 2 major/intermediate/juniors out of about 70 stocks that I look at daily that has not yet started a downturn. Odd that the 2 biggest "dogs" (SA/TRE) are still hanging up in the rarified air. TRE put in a 40% gain in December/early January as is still holding it. Is it because they have upgraded their drilling truck with power steering or because they were added to the GDM index or initiated technical drilling reports? In any case someone is liking them. All the other favorite juniors that had been holding up the GDXJ finally succumbed to pressure and have started caving hard: THM, FRG, NXG, SVM, KGN, etc. No place to hide for these guys now. New all time low today for GDXJ. There will be many miners who have fallen back 25-35% when this move is over. Feels like July again when the miners last did the old free-fall.
<States edge closer to failure due to unfunded mandates> yes and headed to funkytown
<Sinclair thinks that all of this means much, much more quantitative easing> Round two and dollar negative
<Someone try to make the case that he is wrong. I'm listening>
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
RR, Cohodk, and others, I'd like to hear your thoughts/strategies on how you employ stop losses but also avoid getting whip-sawed. I have an incredible knack for setting my stop losses very close to the precise bottom of a whipsaw. Is this something you get better at with more experience?
I recently "discovered" the gold volatility index, GVZ. There's a really bullish formation on the daily chart, which means only means that gold volatility will increase. I think Friday is going to be wild, whichever way it goes, but I also think gold may have put in it's bottom on Thursday, or it could be coming here on Friday. USD top/gold bottom was expected Wed-Fri this week according to McLellan report, and they usually hit it within a day or two.
Support is at 1041.4, 1070.6, 1082.3, resistance at 1100, 1111.5, 1129.
Added: I closed the long ES position I opened toward the beginning of the thread. I closed it 2 days ago at 1139 for a ~$20 profit. I failed to act on my own call in my previous post where I indicated that a decisive break of 1129 was bad. I didn't get out. I'm struggling now with deciding a strategy to cut losses or ride this out.
My prediction is over the next month. Since this is the trading thread, I feel a short term approach is most appropriate.
That said, I feel the Obama/Volcker banking proposals announced yesterday could have a massive deflationary effect. Obama says he wants a fight, he doesnt want to fight the banks. Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein are pretty sure they will still have jobs in 3 years. Obama may not. They can afford to sit this out while the economy falls into the depths. They hoard cash and buy lots of cheap assets in a few years. Commodity based currencies in this environment will fair miserably.
PC,
I dont use stops. Never have. I watch my positions like a hawk. Before I get into a trade I look at potential downside. The downside risk is MUCH more important to me than the upside. I think first how much money could I lose, rather than how much could I make. When those downside target are reached, or even before most times, I am out. I figure I can always get back in. Dont be afraid of being whipsawed, be afraid of losing money.
RR,
I mentioned in Oct that I thought 2010 will prove to be a down year for gold. I see nothing that causes me concern in that prediction.
I don't use sell stops as a rule. But like Cohodk I wait patiently for an entry point after things have been pretty beat down (or driven way up), then start to buy in (sell out). I certainly get whip-sawed on my emotions and have been shaken out several times this year shortly after establishing near rock-bottom buys. It's aggravating. I don't do futures/options and pretty much stick to mining stocks and commodity ETF's. My positions are intended to be for a week(s) at a time. Once in I am getting better at ignoring the noise that has shaken me out in the past. One thing I no longer do is price chase. If the bus has just left I wait until the next significant dip or don't get back on.
Today nibbled some more on juniors AZK and GSS near the morning am bottom. The RSI on AZK hit 26. Did not expect the quick snap back to $1095 though probably should have. Should have nibbled a lot more! This should be a several days leg 4 consolidation before the final 5th leg assault on the $1050-$1080 region. Will be buying much more in the juniors by next week. GDXJ will be on that last but I will probably try to bag extra positions in 5-10 GDXJ juniors that got hit the hardest.
Gold may be fighting the dollar a good part of this year or they can even move together for a while. Regardless, I expect $1226 to be exceeded at some point and for the year for gold to end higher than December 31, 2009 ($1096). If one looks at dollar performance this decade on a monthly bars chart the (15,3) stoch has just bottomed in December following a 10 month fall. In each of the 2 similar drops this decade it has taken a min. of 18 months to scrape the bottom before coming back out of such a drop. A year long rebound doesn't seem to fit with the symmetry. A couple of months before weakening again? I can buy that.
The dynamic dog duo of TRE and SA both went up 9% today while most of the miners floundered. Possibly they are just finishing their 5 leg cycles very late.
On swing trades I take my positions in 1/3's. My entries on a long position are usually near support so I will enter a 1/3 position just above support, 1/3 at support and the balance a little below support. Sometimes all three positions are filled, other times only one or two will take. As for stops, I will use a percent dollar loss stop on the ENTIRE position. A little old school but this is the way I was thought to trade options as well. I use the same technique on short entries.
As far as futures and DT scalps (momo plays) I usually will take no more then a 1% loss and sometimes even less. I use trailing stops on my winners 80% of the times. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Do you figure that there is an entry point for GDXJ? Are we there yet? Jmski is toying with the idea of opening a ScottTrade account just for that occasion.
I figure that gold will probably do better than the nice Large Cent that I intend to buy in a couple weeks.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
<< <i>Do you figure that there is an entry point for GDXJ? Are we there yet? Jmski is toying with the idea of opening a ScottTrade account just for that occasion.
I figure that gold will probably do better than the nice Large Cent that I intend to buy in a couple weeks. >>
A lot of juniors are oversold. I could see scaling into a position starting here. JMO. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Went long GLD via selling the Feb 92 puts this morning.
Lately most of my trades are selling out of the money, near month puts with a 5% to 10% chance of being exercised at expiration. Many buying those puts are long the underlying and are buying insurance against an immediate big decline. Basically, I am selling them that insurance. The premiums tend to be small (except when volatility escalates), but so is the chance that the option buyer will collect any money.
I don't watch the screen all day. I am a relatively slow moving position trader and usually avoid fast moving markets. Time decay is my friend.
In 2008, I used stops, usually at a 100% loss on the nominal dollar amount of the option. The stops saved my bacon during that stock market year, as oversold became oversolder, and support levels meant nothing on the way down. A good many traders that sold puts and stuck to their guns in 2008 lost their entire accounts. With all that, and even with the recent declines, my current positions are small, that I don't have a stop on my current positions. As with all things, that may change.
In the other thread I mention on 1-22 that I thought the dollar chart had the appearance of a major trend change.
Here is some technical commentary on the dollar--posted a day after my comment. I tried to link directly to the site unfortunately there is a a "bad" word that starts and ends with "T" embeded in the link, so I made a snippet.
Still needs to get by $78.30 resistance. Has had trouble there. A break above there and the $80 is probably in the bag........MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
So this means weaker stock markets, but does it mean weaker gold, too? Given the current climate of "safe-haven investing," could gold actually buck the trend and go higher?
And as long as I'm asking: Would silver be pulled up/down equally with gold, or are we finally at the point where ratios might start aligning themselves with a more historic average?
Maund is concerned that the recent GS/JPM H&S tops could be forecasting an overall SM tanking....already in progress. He suggests gold and silver would probably go with it. He advises caution. I've already mentioned that the GSR is sort of shadowing the dollar's move since the spring. Both are right at the 200 dma lines threatening to break out. The GSR has been in a slight uptrend mode since mid-September but has yet to break out. Gold and silver seem to be into the last corrective legs of an ABC decline. If the dollar breaks upwards further the C leg down in the PM's could get steep. Something to be aware of. Still, the USD COT position is still heavily short sided (>7X short) and similar to levels in Feb/March 2009 when the long down trend started.
This snippet from the JS website this weekend gave me some pause. I get the feeling Sinclair is expecting some fallout in the gold price even if not stated explicitly.
The poorly thought out knee jerk reaction to the Mass. political loss has put the market and more than likely the economy into a state of flux, which has the capacity to put this entire western world mess into a flat spin which as in a fighter aircraft is nearly impossible to correct.......stay the course but tighten your seat belt in gold.....Volatility is going ballistic but one thing is for sure and that is a $1650 minimum price objective with much more probable.
In looking at Rhodes' dollar chart it looks to me that it has completed 5 legs up since early December and is showing neg divergences in momentum. While it certainly could be in the process of breaking out, the very short term looks weak to me.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
A relatively non-descript day in the gold prices and miners. The only thing that stood out was TRE's continuation of Friday's 9% surge by doing it again. Actually in 3 trading hours from 2pm Friday through 10 am Monday the stock price advanced 20%......+60% since early December and one of the few stars of the entire gold sector over the past 2 months. This dog is hunting though I don't know exactly what. Eventually some news should surface about an ore find, takeover, etc. A lot of miners are now hitting the 25-30% retrace points from their fall peaks. Silver miners CDE and HL are two of the leaders at 33-34%.
Treasury bond auctions the next 3 days. State of the Union address on Wednesday. The PPT may try to keep things even keel through at least Wednesday. Then Thursday the lid should wiggle off.
Edit for Tuesday am: So much for the TRE miracle, today dropping 29% and negating the last 2 weeks. Or so it seeemd. But then regaining half the drop in an hour. Amazing volatility. To be a fly on the wall at the home office.
I dont know whats gonna happen but I know if I had followed my emotions these last few years I would have bought when the price went up and dumped when it went down. Instead I just held my breath and took the roller coaster ride and I'm much better off for it.
I went to ScottTrade to get their paperwork today, so that I can set up a trading account, eventually to start buying some GDXJ.
But putting any kind of significant money at risk in the SM right now - that's a tougher pill to swallow. Even junior golds. There's still a risk of a damaging downside move for all stocks, imo.
Don't ask me why. I thought that I was almost ready, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it on the spot.
Maybe I'm looking at the wall of worry that markets love to climb.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If you do not have any confidence in what you are trading then you are doomed for failure. If you are afraid to drive a car then you will most likely have an accident. If you are afraid to catch a football then you will most likely drop it.
Hey my comrades....I've been seeing some red (sell signal) showing up on Clearstation.com on the Dow index. And it looks the -500 and Naz may follow. This is the 3rd time since March of 2009. Question: Is this another buy op or is this 3rd sell signal a sign of a larger correction?
There have been sell signals on many indicies for a while now. It's a matter of how many steps down each one takes. Still can't determine if GDX/GDXJ are in their 4th step or 5th step of the move down since $1162. But they both took a nice whallop this morning on gold's quick drop to $1084. That was impossible to catch with the miners unless you had some orders left overnight.....and even then I would bet most would not have gotten filled near those delicious lows. Bought my first 15% bite of GDXJ today. I probably should have waited until tomorrow as my gut says they get weaker still between Wed-Friday. But I started feeling more exposed having a 0% position at this late point in the charts. Aroon 10 day at 0 and BB10's turned flat or over for most miners of interest.
In trying to get a handle on the PM's I looked at GSR. It has broken above the 200 dma for the first time since late April. That's not a good sign for bulls. The slow stochastic has rocketed in only a few days and RSI is strong at around 65. But on the divergence side I note that macd is still quite a bit short of previous peaks the last several months. More concerning would be the volume. While trying to follow a ratio volume may not make sense to most it seems to follow the general patterns. The major rebound to 72 this year showed generally increasing volume as has most of the move from Sept to December (58-65). And the downlegs have generally shown declining volume ratio of GLD/SLV. But this last sharp leg up in GSR has shown obvious declining volume. The generally increasing volume trend since Sept looks broken down. In any case I'm not ready to declare GSR home free and headed way up. It's still within its trending channel from September.
Some quick observations... Gold has held the 1090 line pretty solidly so far and it appears that the 1090 area could be the bottom edge of a triangle consolidation (with some brief overshoots), but it is too early to tell. Likewise, the 78.8-79.0 area for the USD is proving tough for the USD to get through.
Still, I don't think gold is getting ready to go anywhere and we're in for another few months of consolidation. I expect 1130 gold again over the next few weeks, at which point I'll sell and wait for a pull back to 1090 again.
Someone made a good point that there's too much economic uncertainty at the moment for stocks or gold to do anything, and that nothing is really expected to change in the near term, so the markets will go nowhere. Sounds reasonable.
I did call silver wrong earlier when I said I didn't think it would get below the mid 17's.
<< <i>Hey my comrades....I've been seeing some red (sell signal) showing up on Clearstation.com on the Dow index. And it looks the -500 and Naz may follow. This is the 3rd time since March of 2009. Question: Is this another buy op or is this 3rd sell signal a sign of a larger correction?
For SPY, I think the long awaited correction is finally in the cards. That said, I doubt that it will be a rapid decline like the bear market action in 2008/2009. It will likely be more like Tuesday's action, backing and filling with a relatively small decline at the end of the day. It might get to as much as 20% off the recovery high of SPY 114 down to 93 after several months of these backing and filling days. I project GLD to 99 or so on this leg down. The long term up trend for GLD remains intact, so I still would prefer to trade GLD from the long side.
Another $1 drop on JJC. Traded it through a double ETF. Covered 3/4 as it is sitting right on the uptrend line and 50 dma. It may bounce a little from here on possible dollar weakness as a result of the FED meeting and Obama comments.
Mining and material stocks have been blown up in the last 2 weeks. X and FCX both down $20. XME down 20% and GDX down 18%. So a bounce may be in order.
The aforementioned dollar weakness should prove to be short-lived. In the event the dollar does not weaken at all, you had better hold onto your sombrero's. IE, trade those tin foil hats in for hard hats.
<< <i>The aforementioned dollar weakness should prove to be short-lived. In the event the dollar does not weaken at all, you had better hold onto your sombrero's. IE, trade those tin foil hats in for hard hats. >>
USD futures (DX) is making its second attempt at 78.75. I don't expect this attempt will be successful, but the third migh be, if it happens. A definitive break over 78.97 will mean 81.20 is in the cards.
My guess is such a break would happen along side a break of 1080-1090 for gold.
I still think any such move is 3 weeks away at least. Sideways until then.
It does seem reasonable that after this week a decent-counter move in gold should be in order. Hoye's 31-37 day correction band ends today. But others have noted some reaching up to 41 days over the past 2 yrs. Can't have gold flying the day of the state of the Union. That is just not allowed. Funny, but after seeing that very odd and spikey looking H&S form this morning it gave a warning of another drop to the lower $1080's. Thursday will have far less headwinds than today did. One bond auction to go. I think the FED's comments today indicated there was still ransom money available for the markets. Bernanke should win his battle Thursday to remain as FED chief. Would think that would add stability to the markets.
Nibbled on some IAG, GSS, and AUY today as well as another tranche in GDXJ. I had a gut feel GDXJ would eventually hit $23.00 and it came within a cent of that today. The entire commodity sector took a nice whack today including ags, energy, PM's and base metals.
Some real world observations: Over the New Year's I was getting around 1.60-1.62 Brazil Reias to the $US.
I'm heading back down January 30 and I see the Real is up to 1.85. Almost a 15% change in my favor. Still a far cry from the 3.5+ I was getting in 2003.
<< <i>Some real world observations: Over the New Year's I was getting around 1.60-1.62 Brazil Reias to the $US.
I'm heading back down January 30 and I see the Real is up to 1.85. Almost a 15% change in my favor. Still a far cry from the 3.5+ I was getting in 2003. >>
Those were the days! All local goods were dirt cheap, anything imported was expensive. I always got a kick out of the signs advertising sale prices... $49R (and then in small print: x4).... so the item was actually $196R, just you can make 4 payments on it. Wonder if those days are coming soon here in the US.
It was very nice being in Poland in 2003. Just over 4 Zloty per buck. This last August was 2.85 which was up from 2 a year earlier.
Big breakdown in copper (JJC) today. Down over 6% in this last 3 days. Copper at $3.50 was way too high and ripe for collapse. A 40% drop from the highs would not be unexpected. This was my lock trade of the year (so far). Has at least another 10% to go in the near term. The ETF i am in was up 9% today. Sold too much too early, but still have a decent position and will add when (if) the price of JJC rallies back to the broken uptrend. Trading is VERY VERY thin though.
GDX, GLD, SLV are all very near support. It wont be pretty if (when) they break.
The dollar could rip higher faster and more powerfully than a Saturn V rocket. Now pushing through the 200dma.
Commentary from Briefing.com... S&P comments on the U.K. banking system
S&P says "we no longer classify the United Kingdom (AAA/Negative/A-1+) among the most stable and low-risk banking systems globally, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services noted in a report titled "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom" published today on RatingsDirect. This is due to our view of the country's weak economic environment, the reputational damage we believe has been experienced by the banking industry, and what we see as the high dependence on state-support programs of a significant proportion of the industry. We placed the U.K.'s banking system in Group 3 out of our 10 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) groups on Dec. 21, 2009, which primarily reflects our view of relatively high leverage in the U.K. economy and the losses the industry could bear during the deleveraging process. (For more information, see "U.K. BICRA Revised Downward To Group 3 From Group 2 Due To High Leverage In The Economy And Weak Earnings Prospects".) The scale ranges from Group 1 (strongest) to Group 10 (weakest). The macroeconomic and banking industrywide factors that affect the BICRA influence all bank counterparty credit ratings in the U.K. "In our opinion, the weak U.K. economy will continue to hinder the credit profile of the U.K. banking industry. This reflects the sharp decline in economic output and our expectation that the unwinding of the high level of debt (of the government, households, and certain industrial segments) will weigh heavily on relative economic growth prospects and banks' financial performance," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Nigel Greenwood."
An interesting group of charts with of course a bullish slant from a gold bull. In any case there are a lot of inverted H&S and cup w/handle formations floating around here. Interesting that an article by Graham Summers today on kitco had the opposite view of most of these charts (ie waiting to fall off the cliff).
$25 gold down spike today at the usual time re-testing the $1072-$1074 level. The miners and gold fell to newer intermediate lows and then rebounded very sharply....in some cases ending higher than yesterday's close. A lot of miners now showing 1 or 2 daily hammers. GDX dipped nearly 4% below the 200 dma then came back to finish 1% under. A lot of stops were picked off today and the volume was huge. This is similar to the end of Oct. capitulation where the volume ended large then transitioned right into large buying. This is the 3rd time GDX has retested the 40-42 range from the early September gap up/breakout. There is an awful lot of PM bearishness out there.
GSR's bullishness with essentially 8 days up in a row is rarely seen (11 days total on this up leg). The RSI just hit 70 which is another marker rarely hit. Today's daily candle is in bullish hammer form with a long tail. Yesterday's was an inverted bearish hammer. This is an odd formation for GSR...possibly an ending formation? Also note that GSR has touched or just broken above it's upper channel boundry (not drawn). Volume very light today sticking with the overall Vol downtrend.
I closed all of my long positions in futures today on the rebound to 1090. The magic level 1090 brought gold right back after that dip... so that is encouraging.
The overall lack of strength from gold is discouraging, and that USD has been fairly strong, but not overly strong - it is struggling at the 79.0 level (DX futures). Grinding upward, but not moving that fast. Stocks are struggling too, and there could be more correction there as well.
Since DX did penetrate a 79.0 and GC did break through 1075, I think there's a good chance of more weakness in gold to come. I think it's best to be on the sidelines for now - I'm not brave enough to short gold.
Although one thing in the back of my mind tells me that just as I think gold's going to decline further, it's probably really likely to rebound now, back up to at least 1130.
Ackerman is targetting at least 1140, but gold will only hit 1140 on dollar strength, and if there's more dollar strength I've got to think that it will be sufficient to take gold lower as DX will likely go to around 82. Would be almost comforting to see gold hit 1000 again, as that would be a solid all-in low-risk re-entry point to ride gold up through $2000 by next spring.
I don't see any longer-term trading patterns developing for gold at least until the 2nd half of Feb, if not until April.
Silver has hit my $16 target from a week ago. Almost all major indices including PMs stopped at the edge of the cliff today. All are short term oversold and "should" try to stage some sort of rebound. Remember though that extreme oversold conditions are a sign of weakness. The trends could very well continue lower after a short pause.
I did close remaining basic metals short and nibbled on X (US steel), XOM and FCX at the close. I did buy some DZZ also as a hedge. The big banks did well today also, but im not quite ready to step in that firepit yet.
A lot of stops were picked off today
Agreed. They broke gold and the SP-500 just low enough to make a small panic bottom. Good earnings from AMZN and MSFT, and Bernanke's confirmation after the market's close may help a bounce.
GSR looks like a solid breakout on that short term chart.
I still dont see much bearishness in PM's. Most are still saying they go higher by end of year and much higher after that. Still sensing that most view the dollar bounce as just short term. Some PM's offered on the BST do seem to be sitting around longer than usual though.
I'm more focused on the very short term right now. It seemed like some of the resource currencies may have turned. The dollar may also have run out of steam for now at 79.1 (5 legs completed). The parabolic move in GSR should be unsustainable. Hopefully we get a break for at least a few weeks. Surprisingly gold has held quite a bit above it's 200 dma average (6-7%). In previous strong corrections it's gone considerably deeper. Silver also essentially touched it's 200 dma which it has done this past year or so. GDX went the deepest but that's expected considering the volatility that the stocks bring to the table. Typically GDX has stayed around 10-15% above the 200 dma on corrections. But this was a major move up leading to an all time high. So removing that froth by crossing the 200 dma doesn't seem out of place. The bounces off the FEB 2009 highs went even deeper for silver, gold, and GDX.
Not surprised at lack of action on the BST. Few sellers at these low levels and probably almost no buyers. Until the big boyz like Hertiage start getting refill orders the system is backlogged.
While long term PM sentiment might still be somewhat bullish I think the short term has gone quite negative. If you go on to Kitco forums you can form a long line of the pundits "expecting" much further declines to $1000 or lower...and very expecting to go above $1100-1120. I don't know what the Hulbert sentiment index is running but it's probably down near 0-20%. I think when the COT report comes out tomorrow it will show a lot of the banks/commercials short selling and long buying.
I added some more GDXJ today as well as some Yamana and Aurizon. It's getting hard to push the buy button when the negativity is streaming on all fronts. One can hardly find a kind word about the metals right now.
Out of DZZ. Got a 1% gift on a hedge. FCX and X are rockin, but I will be leaving the party early.
The dollar may also have run out of steam for now at 79.1 (
The unexpected would be if the dollar spikes 2c higher in the next week. Beware the unexpected especially if more negative news comes from Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, ect. Its not like there is a dearth of potential negative headlines from Europe.
Few sellers at these low levels and probably almost no buyers
So what will bring in the buyers, higher prices? Sounds like a fools trade to me. Would lower prices mean even less sellers and absolutely no buyers?
I see plenty of 90% on the BST but sellers are asking unrealistic prices. Bags are trading at 4% discounts yet some sellers want 10-15% premiums. There is no more fear to justify the outrageous premiums that were being charged a year ago. Many people bought ASE's last year when spot was lower and are still underwater even with spot being higher.
Surprisingly gold has held quite a bit above it's 200 dma average (6-7%). In previous strong corrections it's gone considerably deeper
This "correction" may not be over.
One can hardly find a kind word about the metals right now.
Well, I bot AGQ at 50.85
Out of AGQ at 51.42. 270 second trade. I like quickies. Out of FCX for 2.5% and out of X for 2.6%
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i> The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside. >>
Could and doing are two different things. In the now the Aussie and the Cando have held up GREAT. Could it change? Yes, up, down or sideways. I was basically illustrating that with all the dollars strength against the euro that these currencies have held up well. They have. MJ >>
The Aussie is down about 3.10%, the Cando about 2.85%, the Euro, about 3.6% since last weeks peaks. So yes, some very modest outperformance. The British pound and Yen, have outperformed to greater measure. I have a high degree of confidence in my assessment above.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Get out now! I bought. You have been warned!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside. >>
Could and doing are two different things. In the now the Aussie and the Cando have held up GREAT. Could it change? Yes, up, down or sideways. I was basically illustrating that with all the dollars strength against the euro that these currencies have held up well. They have. MJ >>
The Aussie is down about 3.10%, the Cando about 2.85%, the Euro, about 3.6% since last weeks peaks. So yes, some very modest outperformance. The British pound and Yen, have outperformed to greater measure. I have a high degree of confidence in my assessment above. >>
As do I with mine. My horizon is longer then yours and I'm basing mine on fundies and technicals. Down the road both of these currencies will be a par or better then the dollar. I won't pick the date. My point is that commodity currencies ( Aussie and Cando) usually gets hit the hardest on dollar strength especially when oil and gold get hit hard. This time they didn't. That's all. As you say, it's all relative.MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
With gold having closed the year at $1096 I'm pretty confident it will exceed that to make it 10 years in a row.
Today's bounce off $1087 was very close to one of the JS angels at $1089. Gold pretty much petered out at the next higher angel of $1156. Next one down is $1024 followed by $1000. Gold certainly looks determined to fall under the trend line formed from the November 2008 lows. Gold now at around 8-9% above the 200 dma. GDX is only 3% above it's 200 dma. Both of those are already in the buy zones if based on previous 2009 lows. But things will probably still get a bit cheaper by next Tuesday. The IH&S neckline still looks inviting at the $1045-$1050 level. A close retest of that would fullfill many requirements and be the ideal point to rebound.
Gold and silver miners are on sale. I nibbled on about 2% of my trading account for GSS & AZK. I see about 20 miners that are in the seriously oversold category already. Oddly, Cohodk's favorite TRE is one of only 2 major/intermediate/juniors out of about 70 stocks that I look at daily that has not yet started a downturn. Odd that the 2 biggest "dogs" (SA/TRE) are still hanging up in the rarified air. TRE put in a 40% gain in December/early January as is still holding it. Is it because they have upgraded their drilling truck with power steering or because they were added to the GDM index or initiated technical drilling reports? In any case someone is liking them. All the other favorite juniors that had been holding up the GDXJ finally succumbed to pressure and have started caving hard: THM, FRG, NXG, SVM, KGN, etc. No place to hide for these guys now. New all time low today for GDXJ. There will be many miners who have fallen back 25-35% when this move is over. Feels like July again when the miners last did the old free-fall.
roadrunner
Obama attacks the banks (as if that will make them start lending), and the market tanks.
Scott Brown's win reflects voter frustrations, scaring the bejesus out of the democrats.
The Supreme Court affirms corporate campaign financing.
States edge closer to failure due to unfunded mandates.
Sinclair thinks that all of this means much, much more quantitative easing.
Someone try to make the case that he is wrong. I'm listening.
I knew it would happen.
<Scott Brown's win reflects voter frustrations, scaring the bejesus out of the democrats> terrified
<The Supreme Court affirms corporate campaign financing> Yes sir.
<States edge closer to failure due to unfunded mandates> yes and headed to funkytown
<Sinclair thinks that all of this means much, much more quantitative easing> Round two and dollar negative
<Someone try to make the case that he is wrong. I'm listening>
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
RR, Cohodk, and others, I'd like to hear your thoughts/strategies on how you employ stop losses but also avoid getting whip-sawed. I have an incredible knack for setting my stop losses very close to the precise bottom of a whipsaw. Is this something you get better at with more experience?
I recently "discovered" the gold volatility index, GVZ. There's a really bullish formation on the daily chart, which means only means that gold volatility will increase. I think Friday is going to be wild, whichever way it goes, but I also think gold may have put in it's bottom on Thursday, or it could be coming here on Friday. USD top/gold bottom was expected Wed-Fri this week according to McLellan report, and they usually hit it within a day or two.
Support is at 1041.4, 1070.6, 1082.3, resistance at 1100, 1111.5, 1129.
Added: I closed the long ES position I opened toward the beginning of the thread. I closed it 2 days ago at 1139 for a ~$20 profit. I failed to act on my own call in my previous post where I indicated that a decisive break of 1129 was bad. I didn't get out. I'm struggling now with deciding a strategy to cut losses or ride this out.
My prediction is over the next month. Since this is the trading thread, I feel a short term approach is most appropriate.
That said, I feel the Obama/Volcker banking proposals announced yesterday could have a massive deflationary effect. Obama says he wants a fight, he doesnt want to fight the banks. Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein are pretty sure they will still have jobs in 3 years. Obama may not. They can afford to sit this out while the economy falls into the depths. They hoard cash and buy lots of cheap assets in a few years. Commodity based currencies in this environment will fair miserably.
PC,
I dont use stops. Never have. I watch my positions like a hawk. Before I get into a trade I look at potential downside. The downside risk is MUCH more important to me than the upside. I think first how much money could I lose, rather than how much could I make. When those downside target are reached, or even before most times, I am out. I figure I can always get back in. Dont be afraid of being whipsawed, be afraid of losing money.
RR,
I mentioned in Oct that I thought 2010 will prove to be a down year for gold. I see nothing that causes me concern in that prediction.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sold 1/2 AGQ at 57.34.
Sold other 1/2 at 57.61.
What a wild day. Traded GS, FCX, XME, GDX. Im exhausted. Calling it a day.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Today nibbled some more on juniors AZK and GSS near the morning am bottom. The RSI on AZK hit 26. Did not expect the quick snap back to $1095 though probably should have. Should have nibbled a lot more! This should be a several days leg 4 consolidation before the final 5th leg assault on the $1050-$1080 region. Will be buying much more in the juniors by next week. GDXJ will be on that last but I will probably try to bag extra positions in 5-10 GDXJ juniors that got hit the hardest.
Gold may be fighting the dollar a good part of this year or they can even move together for a while. Regardless, I expect $1226 to be exceeded at some point and for the year for gold to end higher than December 31, 2009 ($1096). If one looks at dollar performance this decade on a monthly bars chart the (15,3) stoch has just bottomed in December following a 10 month fall. In each of the 2 similar drops this decade it has taken a min. of 18 months to scrape the bottom before coming back out of such a drop. A year long rebound doesn't seem to fit with the symmetry. A couple of months before weakening again? I can buy that.
The dynamic dog duo of TRE and SA both went up 9% today while most of the miners floundered. Possibly they are just finishing their 5 leg cycles very late.
roadrunner
As far as futures and DT scalps (momo plays) I usually will take no more then a 1% loss and sometimes even less. I use trailing stops on my winners 80% of the times. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I figure that gold will probably do better than the nice Large Cent that I intend to buy in a couple weeks.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Do you figure that there is an entry point for GDXJ? Are we there yet? Jmski is toying with the idea of opening a ScottTrade account just for that occasion.
I figure that gold will probably do better than the nice Large Cent that I intend to buy in a couple weeks.
A lot of juniors are oversold. I could see scaling into a position starting here. JMO. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Lately most of my trades are selling out of the money, near month puts with a 5% to 10% chance of being exercised at expiration. Many buying those puts are long the underlying and are buying insurance against an immediate big decline. Basically, I am selling them that insurance. The premiums tend to be small (except when volatility escalates), but so is the chance that the option buyer will collect any money.
I don't watch the screen all day. I am a relatively slow moving position trader and usually avoid fast moving markets. Time decay is my friend.
In 2008, I used stops, usually at a 100% loss on the nominal dollar amount of the option. The stops saved my bacon during that stock market year, as oversold became oversolder, and support levels meant nothing on the way down. A good many traders that sold puts and stuck to their guns in 2008 lost their entire accounts. With all that, and even with the recent declines, my current positions are small, that I don't have a stop on my current positions. As with all things, that may change.
Here is some technical commentary on the dollar--posted a day after my comment
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
And as long as I'm asking: Would silver be pulled up/down equally with gold, or are we finally at the point where ratios might start aligning themselves with a more historic average?
Clive Maund on S&P vs. gold
This snippet from the JS website this weekend gave me some pause. I get the feeling Sinclair is expecting some fallout in the gold price even if not stated explicitly.
The poorly thought out knee jerk reaction to the Mass. political loss has put the market and more than likely the economy into a state of flux, which has the capacity to put this entire western world mess into a flat spin which as in a fighter aircraft is nearly impossible to correct.......stay the course but tighten your seat belt in gold.....Volatility is going ballistic but one thing is for sure and that is a $1650 minimum price objective with much more probable.
In looking at Rhodes' dollar chart it looks to me that it has completed 5 legs up since early December and is showing neg divergences in momentum. While it certainly could be in the process of breaking out, the very short term looks weak to me.
roadrunner
I would have expected a dollar selloff today as it looks like the helicopter will still fly, but it aint droppin'. Pay attention.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Might just have to play the equities most closely tied. Or trade the futures.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Treasury bond auctions the next 3 days. State of the Union address on Wednesday. The PPT may try to keep things even keel through at least Wednesday. Then Thursday the lid should wiggle off.
Edit for Tuesday am: So much for the TRE miracle, today dropping 29% and negating the last 2 weeks. Or so it seeemd. But then regaining half the drop in an hour. Amazing volatility. To be a fly on the wall at the home office.
roadrunner
But putting any kind of significant money at risk in the SM right now - that's a tougher pill to swallow. Even junior golds. There's still a risk of a damaging downside move for all stocks, imo.
Don't ask me why. I thought that I was almost ready, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it on the spot.
Maybe I'm looking at the wall of worry that markets love to climb.
I knew it would happen.
Take baby steps. You must first learn to crawl before you walk. Go slow and measured. Good luck.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
jmski isn't frightened by having physical pms, but finds the water chilly when he dips his toe into the paper pond.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
Nice 2.4% drop on JJC at the open this morn.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Clearstation
Comrade Renski
In trying to get a handle on the PM's I looked at GSR. It has broken above the 200 dma for the first time since late April. That's not a good sign for bulls. The slow stochastic has rocketed in only a few days and RSI is strong at around 65. But on the divergence side I note that macd is still quite a bit short of previous peaks the last several months. More concerning would be the volume. While trying to follow a ratio volume may not make sense to most it seems to follow the general patterns. The major rebound to 72 this year showed generally increasing volume as has most of the move from Sept to December (58-65). And the downlegs have generally shown declining volume ratio of GLD/SLV. But this last sharp leg up in GSR has shown obvious declining volume. The generally increasing volume trend since Sept looks broken down. In any case I'm not ready to declare GSR home free and headed way up. It's still within its trending channel from September.
Gold to Silver ratio
roadrunner
Still, I don't think gold is getting ready to go anywhere and we're in for another few months of consolidation. I expect 1130 gold again over the next few weeks, at which point I'll sell and wait for a pull back to 1090 again.
Someone made a good point that there's too much economic uncertainty at the moment for stocks or gold to do anything, and that nothing is really expected to change in the near term, so the markets will go nowhere. Sounds reasonable.
I did call silver wrong earlier when I said I didn't think it would get below the mid 17's.
<< <i>Hey my comrades....I've been seeing some red (sell signal) showing up on Clearstation.com on the Dow index. And it looks the -500 and Naz may follow. This is the 3rd time since March of 2009. Question: Is this another buy op or is this 3rd sell signal a sign of a larger correction?
Clearstation
Comrade Renski >>
For SPY, I think the long awaited correction is finally in the cards. That said, I doubt that it will be a rapid decline like the bear market action in 2008/2009. It will likely be more like Tuesday's action, backing and filling with a relatively small decline at the end of the day. It might get to as much as 20% off the recovery high of SPY 114 down to 93 after several months of these backing and filling days. I project GLD to 99 or so on this leg down. The long term up trend for GLD remains intact, so I still would prefer to trade GLD from the long side.
Mining and material stocks have been blown up in the last 2 weeks. X and FCX both down $20. XME down 20% and GDX down 18%. So a bounce may be in order.
The aforementioned dollar weakness should prove to be short-lived. In the event the dollar does not weaken at all, you had better hold onto your sombrero's. IE, trade those tin foil hats in for hard hats.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The aforementioned dollar weakness should prove to be short-lived. In the event the dollar does not weaken at all, you had better hold onto your sombrero's. IE, trade those tin foil hats in for hard hats.
USD futures (DX) is making its second attempt at 78.75. I don't expect this attempt will be successful, but the third migh be, if it happens. A definitive break over 78.97 will mean 81.20 is in the cards.
My guess is such a break would happen along side a break of 1080-1090 for gold.
I still think any such move is 3 weeks away at least. Sideways until then.
Nibbled on some IAG, GSS, and AUY today as well as another tranche in GDXJ. I had a gut feel GDXJ would eventually hit $23.00 and it came within a cent of that today. The entire commodity sector took a nice whack today including ags, energy, PM's and base metals.
roadrunner
I'm heading back down January 30 and I see the Real is up to 1.85. Almost a 15% change in my favor. Still a far cry from the 3.5+ I was getting in 2003.
<< <i>Some real world observations: Over the New Year's I was getting around 1.60-1.62 Brazil Reias to the $US.
I'm heading back down January 30 and I see the Real is up to 1.85. Almost a 15% change in my favor. Still a far cry from the 3.5+ I was getting in 2003. >>
Those were the days! All local goods were dirt cheap, anything imported was expensive. I always got a kick out of the signs advertising sale prices... $49R (and then in small print: x4).... so the item was actually $196R, just you can make 4 payments on it. Wonder if those days are coming soon here in the US.
Big breakdown in copper (JJC) today. Down over 6% in this last 3 days. Copper at $3.50 was way too high and ripe for collapse. A 40% drop from the highs would not be unexpected. This was my lock trade of the year (so far). Has at least another 10% to go in the near term. The ETF i am in was up 9% today. Sold too much too early, but still have a decent position and will add when (if) the price of JJC rallies back to the broken uptrend. Trading is VERY VERY thin though.
GDX, GLD, SLV are all very near support. It wont be pretty if (when) they break.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Commentary from Briefing.com... S&P comments on the U.K. banking system
S&P says "we no longer classify the United Kingdom (AAA/Negative/A-1+) among the most stable and low-risk banking systems globally, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services noted in a report titled "Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom" published today on RatingsDirect. This is due to our view of the country's weak economic environment, the reputational damage we believe has been experienced by the banking industry, and what we see as the high dependence on state-support programs of a significant proportion of the industry. We placed the U.K.'s banking system in Group 3 out of our 10 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) groups on Dec. 21, 2009, which primarily reflects our view of relatively high leverage in the U.K. economy and the losses the industry could bear during the deleveraging process. (For more information, see "U.K. BICRA Revised Downward To Group 3 From Group 2 Due To High Leverage In The Economy And Weak Earnings Prospects".) The scale ranges from Group 1 (strongest) to Group 10 (weakest). The macroeconomic and banking industrywide factors that affect the BICRA influence all bank counterparty credit ratings in the U.K. "In our opinion, the weak U.K. economy will continue to hinder the credit profile of the U.K. banking industry. This reflects the sharp decline in economic output and our expectation that the unwinding of the high level of debt (of the government, households, and certain industrial segments) will weigh heavily on relative economic growth prospects and banks' financial performance," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Nigel Greenwood."
BICRA GROUPS
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
An interesting group of charts with of course a bullish slant from a gold bull. In any case there are a lot of inverted H&S and cup w/handle formations floating around here. Interesting that an article by Graham Summers today on kitco had the opposite view of most of these charts (ie waiting to fall off the cliff).
$25 gold down spike today at the usual time re-testing the $1072-$1074 level. The miners and gold fell to newer intermediate lows and then rebounded very sharply....in some cases ending higher than yesterday's close. A lot of miners now showing 1 or 2 daily hammers. GDX dipped nearly 4% below the 200 dma then came back to finish 1% under. A lot of stops were picked off today and the volume was huge. This is similar to the end of Oct. capitulation where the volume ended large then transitioned right into large buying. This is the 3rd time GDX has retested the 40-42 range from the early September gap up/breakout. There is an awful lot of PM bearishness out there.
GSR's bullishness with essentially 8 days up in a row is rarely seen (11 days total on this up leg). The RSI just hit 70 which is another marker rarely hit. Today's daily candle is in bullish hammer form with a long tail. Yesterday's was an inverted bearish hammer. This is an odd formation for GSR...possibly an ending formation? Also note that GSR has touched or just broken above it's upper channel boundry (not drawn). Volume very light today sticking with the overall Vol downtrend.
GSR chart
Bernanke confirmed today. I think that's a positive for the reflation trade though it probably would have mattered little who took the job.
roadrunner
The overall lack of strength from gold is discouraging, and that USD has been fairly strong, but not overly strong - it is struggling at the 79.0 level (DX futures). Grinding upward, but not moving that fast. Stocks are struggling too, and there could be more correction there as well.
Since DX did penetrate a 79.0 and GC did break through 1075, I think there's a good chance of more weakness in gold to come. I think it's best to be on the sidelines for now - I'm not brave enough to short gold.
Although one thing in the back of my mind tells me that just as I think gold's going to decline further, it's probably really likely to rebound now, back up to at least 1130.
Ackerman is targetting at least 1140, but gold will only hit 1140 on dollar strength, and if there's more dollar strength I've got to think that it will be sufficient to take gold lower as DX will likely go to around 82. Would be almost comforting to see gold hit 1000 again, as that would be a solid all-in low-risk re-entry point to ride gold up through $2000 by next spring.
I don't see any longer-term trading patterns developing for gold at least until the 2nd half of Feb, if not until April.
I did close remaining basic metals short and nibbled on X (US steel), XOM and FCX at the close. I did buy some DZZ also as a hedge. The big banks did well today also, but im not quite ready to step in that firepit yet.
A lot of stops were picked off today
Agreed. They broke gold and the SP-500 just low enough to make a small panic bottom. Good earnings from AMZN and MSFT, and Bernanke's confirmation after the market's close may help a bounce.
GSR looks like a solid breakout on that short term chart.
I still dont see much bearishness in PM's. Most are still saying they go higher by end of year and much higher after that. Still sensing that most view the dollar bounce as just short term. Some PM's offered on the BST do seem to be sitting around longer than usual though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not surprised at lack of action on the BST. Few sellers at these low levels and probably almost no buyers. Until the big boyz like Hertiage start getting refill orders the system is backlogged.
While long term PM sentiment might still be somewhat bullish I think the short term has gone quite negative. If you go on to Kitco forums you can form a long line of the pundits "expecting" much further declines to $1000 or lower...and very expecting to go above $1100-1120. I don't know what the Hulbert sentiment index is running but it's probably down near 0-20%. I think when the COT report comes out tomorrow it will show a lot of the banks/commercials short selling and long buying.
I added some more GDXJ today as well as some Yamana and Aurizon. It's getting hard to push the buy button when the negativity is streaming on all fronts. One can hardly find a kind word about the metals right now.
roadrunner
The dollar may also have run out of steam for now at 79.1 (
The unexpected would be if the dollar spikes 2c higher in the next week. Beware the unexpected especially if more negative news comes from Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, ect. Its not like there is a dearth of potential negative headlines from Europe.
Few sellers at these low levels and probably almost no buyers
So what will bring in the buyers, higher prices? Sounds like a fools trade to me. Would lower prices mean even less sellers and absolutely no buyers?
I see plenty of 90% on the BST but sellers are asking unrealistic prices. Bags are trading at 4% discounts yet some sellers want 10-15% premiums. There is no more fear to justify the outrageous premiums that were being charged a year ago. Many people bought ASE's last year when spot was lower and are still underwater even with spot being higher.
Surprisingly gold has held quite a bit above it's 200 dma average (6-7%). In previous strong corrections it's gone considerably deeper
This "correction" may not be over.
One can hardly find a kind word about the metals right now.
Well, I bot AGQ at 50.85
Out of AGQ at 51.42. 270 second trade. I like quickies.
Out of FCX for 2.5% and out of X for 2.6%
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Was the price lower than your initial buy? With no skin in the game, jmski isn't paying close attention, yet.
I knew it would happen.