***JANUARY 2010 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
ProofCollection
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New decade, new year, new month, new thread.
Gold was on fire today, and unfortunately I missed most of it, as I sold off early into the rally. I did make a good move last night. I wanted a roll of 2010 silver eagles that APMEX is pre-selling, and I just had a hunch that I probably wouldn't be able to buy them any cheaper this year as I think silver's about to take off over $20 and not look back. Thank God I locked in my order last night, more than $.70 ago. I also opened a silver futures contract position on Dec 30 or 31 at $16.80.
Plat and Pd and now silver are just soaring. Wish I had bought more Pd last year and played that market a bit more, but I'm just going to stick with good old Ag and Au. Those 2009 Pd Maple Leafs for $325 are looking like one of my best buys for last year, currently selling at ~$475 on Ebay. I believe this is the commodities "echo" reflecting the last 4 months of gold's movement. $23-24 silver, here we come!
So as far as gold, we'll know soon enough if this is merely the long overdue bounce from the big drop from record highs and a 3 month consolidation period or if this is a short 1 month consolidation/pullback. I think gold is good for 1145 on this current move this week, and may go as high as 1190.
The stock market is on fire too and has started a new trend. SP500 should hit 1160 this week as well.
Long gold at 1118 (min target 1145), silver at 16.80 (no target), and SP500 at 1120 (min target 1160).
Gold was on fire today, and unfortunately I missed most of it, as I sold off early into the rally. I did make a good move last night. I wanted a roll of 2010 silver eagles that APMEX is pre-selling, and I just had a hunch that I probably wouldn't be able to buy them any cheaper this year as I think silver's about to take off over $20 and not look back. Thank God I locked in my order last night, more than $.70 ago. I also opened a silver futures contract position on Dec 30 or 31 at $16.80.
Plat and Pd and now silver are just soaring. Wish I had bought more Pd last year and played that market a bit more, but I'm just going to stick with good old Ag and Au. Those 2009 Pd Maple Leafs for $325 are looking like one of my best buys for last year, currently selling at ~$475 on Ebay. I believe this is the commodities "echo" reflecting the last 4 months of gold's movement. $23-24 silver, here we come!
So as far as gold, we'll know soon enough if this is merely the long overdue bounce from the big drop from record highs and a 3 month consolidation period or if this is a short 1 month consolidation/pullback. I think gold is good for 1145 on this current move this week, and may go as high as 1190.
The stock market is on fire too and has started a new trend. SP500 should hit 1160 this week as well.
Long gold at 1118 (min target 1145), silver at 16.80 (no target), and SP500 at 1120 (min target 1160).
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Comments
-COT report from data ending last Tuesday:
Gold commercials lightened up by selling 4500 shorts and buying 2200 longs. OI fell 7,500 to 492,000. The short to long ratio is now down to 3.94 from its October peak of 4.45. Silver was basically unchanged with no trend change. The banks piled on the copper shorts this past week as well.
The dollar commercials continued their maddening short-end run with yet another 5,000 shorts added (with 18 longs...lol) to bring the short to long ratio from 7.26 to 8.11. The highest level seen in 2009 was at 8.13 during late Feb. OI increased 3,400 to 63K. I have to wonder if this action is what Sinclair was alluding to concerning the dollar carry trade. That is, those in the carry trade will continue to add dollar shorts to their positions to protect the assets they have already purchased. In essence the carry traders act as a brake on the US dollar action. One thing for sure, the open interet in the dollar has gone ballistic the past month....but to the short side. The bankers/commercials obviously are expecting a longer term drop. QuadG has charted three 8 wave fractals on the dollar index over the past decade. Currently the 3rd fractal has the dollar in the 7th wave up since December. What has happened in each of those previous fractals is following a multi-month 7th wave back up, a fairly steep 8th wave down has occured lasting 2-3 years. The last 8th wave took the dollar down to .71. It would take a dollar move above 82-84 to break this pattern.
_____________
With the dollar doing a retrace, gold and silver rebounded nicely today. Is this just a B leg that will retrace to $1130-$1156 or the start of a whole new run towards $1300?......I think it's just a retrace with more downside to come later by next week when we get another series of 3/10/30 yr bond auctions....no rest for the weary. The current posted schedule runs right through the end of April.
roadrunner
The action in gold, gold stocks, copper, oil, plat, etc. looks sort of toppy with most showing a distinct 5 waves up over the past 4 days. A few of the indicators now showing negative divergences on the hourly chart. Going back 2 weeks looks close enough to an ABC (5-3-5) retrace. GDXJ has already retraced about 55% of it's early December drop. The action in the yen, 2 yr TBonds, etc is getting stronger as well as if to say money right now is flowing back to safety from commodities. The Aroon10 in various commodities and currencies seems to indicate it's getting close to the time to flip things back the other way again. Things still look bullish to me for GDXJ/GLD on the longer term charts which makes lightening up now feel like the wrong thing to do. Looking for one last good entry point in January.
roadrunner
It was disappointing and it's slightly concerning that gold didn't make it over 1130 and has retreated back to 1118; however, the buy signal on Monday was pretty strong and I am confident that gold is ready to power up to 1145 or higher... we'll just have to wait for a 24+ hour consolidation.
Silver continues to grind higher.
After listening to some economic talk radio this morning, I feel confident that gold will need Jan, Feb, and maybe part of Mar before it's ready to take off again. Until then, it will be range bound between 1200 and 1075 (or maybe a bit lower). Some comments that were made were that we can expect good foreclosure, job, and GDP numbers (despite the fact that they won't reflect what's really going on) to come out this month and maybe next and that will "convince" people that the economic recovery is underway. I don't think this will be good for gold, but I think the stock markets - and commodities including silver - will soar. I think I'm going to try to turn my attention more to silver over the next couple of months and let gold fluctuate. I think the bad news that's coming this year will be held off until Mar/Apr and later this year - enough to give stocks and such the time to make a big advance. SP500 at 1200+ is reasonable by Mar, IMO.
Here's a silver chart. I think next stop will be the top of the channel, just over $20, or possibly higher depending how long it takes to get there.
The linked weekly gold chart shows gold starting to make another turn off the bottom. The 20,12,7 stochastic is at levels not seen since gold was back at $680. So Thomson's view that $1075 gold in December is equal to $905 gold seen last July is not far off. The one point I will add is that even on the initial FS 20,12,7 bottoms, there was still another price wave down that followed both in August 2008 and July 2009. But I agree that it's getting awfully close for gold to commence another run. Those final price bottoms occured within 4 weeks of the first one. At most I'd say we have 2 weeks left, assuming it's not already underway. That would give the dollar one last run to try and touch the vaunted 79+ range where the 200 dma lives. Then it should be silver, gold and commodities through the spring. This fits well with the dollar's comex commerical S/L ratio peak of 8.11. When that number was reached back on 2/17/09 it took 2 weeks to turn the dollar's upward move.
Thomson on gold, bonds, dollar.
roadrunner
<< <i>I agree that silver is going to be the winner on this next run. The gold to silver ratio can make it into the 40's on this next run. But I don't think we'll have to wait a few months to see it happen. Still, silver looks like it needs to go back and retest the breakout line first...which is closer to $17. I think part of January is about all the time the PM consolidation will need. Thomson writes about the same massive commercial comex dollar short position that I've been mentioning the past several weeks. How can that lead to a 12-18 month dollar rally? Those same commerical dollar shorts are also adding to their gold long pile. >>
I was talking with an experienced trader who said that the data indicated by the COT report is generally not that useful, and I've got to say that I haven't really been able to correlate it with confidence to any chart movements. It's something that I keep in mind but I would be afraid to make any decisions based on it.
That said, your comment kind of surprised me, because with such a huge short position, if there was a scramble to cover and close short positions, it would really drive that commodity up.
Comex positons may by themselves be inaccurate in determining short term prices. But it is another tool in the chest to use as reference. As Thomson says, does it makes sense to go against the banker's huge dollar short now when their short to long ratio is the highest it's been in a year.....and the fundamentals still basically stink? Enough of the successful traders I follow mention the comex positions from time to time so it has to have some validity if they are tracking it. While it probably won't make you money week to week, it should help on a month to month time frame. The bankers started going big time short on the dollar in December, ostensibly losing money hand over fist. But what happens if they succeed in helping to drive the dollar back down to .71 or lower by the end of the year? Those losing bets entered into from .75-.78 will all become huge winners. They have far more staying power than the big funds who are now long.
When gold was powering up from Sept-Dec the banks never turned tail and covered their shorts as they were "seemingly" being incinerated. They continued to add net shorts or held their ground. They eventually turned the tide and started cashing in winning shorts all the way down to $1075. Now they're adding to their long pile.
The GSR is very close to breaking down right around the 50 dma support line. Indicators are all showings strong negative divergence. One more good day down and GSR could be on its way back to the 50's.
roadrunner
This USD chart has some interesting commentary. It shows that the USD is VERY overbought, and to watch out for a correction.
Gold is showing support at 1112.6, 1121.2, and resistance at 1127, 1135.6, and 1150.
Silver almost touched $18 this evening, Plat and Pd charge higher as well.
Gold is ready for a move Wed but it might hold off until Thurs.
I couldn't read all of this article, but it starts off with this intriguing line:
BEIJING -- Now is a good time to reform the yuan exchange-rate mechanism and allow a one-off 10% appreciation in the Chinese currency against the U.S. dollar, a prominent Chinese think tank said Wednesday...
Hoye has had a good track record on gold calls this past decade. He was one of the very few who called the 2008 deleveraging meltdown as well as its effects on gold/gold stocks. His article analyzes the typical gold corrections of the past decade by # of days, RSI, support levels, etc. He expects the total correction to last 31-37 trading days. This is line with most every correction of the past decade. Today is day 23. The bounce back rally has typically ended between days 19-25....typically reaching the 14 day BB with an RSI in the 48-56 range. Both of those have been met at $1136 and with RSI at 55.7. Hoye figures support on a C leg down would be at the 20 week ma...approx $1071 right now.
This is a good read summarizing how gold has corrected in the past. It's no guarantee of future success, but a good starting point.
roadrunner
The McLellan report is predicting a USD top next Mon or Tues., which means the continued strength in the dollar will hamper gold's movements, but it's done quite well so far this week despite USD strength. I expect gold to do well overall through next week, but I am allowing for a few significant (~$10+) swings downward which should be quick.
Silver continues to grind higher! I added a silver contract at 18.21. It and PL and PD are just bull machines right now. I haven't seen or read anything about Pd and Pl, but I don't think $600 is an unreasonable target for Palladium this spring.
All of my positions from my OP are still open. I will sell half my gold and SP500 position at 1145 and 1145, and try to buy back on a dip.
Support for gold at 1123.8, 1132.3, and resistance at 1146.9, 1155.4, and 1178.5.
The gold chart seems to be forming another cup formation similar to what transpired following the February 2009 peak....only this formation is moving much quicker. The current down leg from 1140 to around 1120 may continue this right hand side of the cup formation with a rebound up to 1150-1180. If it falls below the $1115 area it will probably go quite a bit lower.
roadrunner
What's got me really concerned is non-farm payroll data being released tomorrow. Whether it's good or bad, is irrelevant IMO, as the street's interpretation can go either way - always hard to anticipate these things. So Friday is probably going to be a volatile day. I can definitely see gold taking a hit. I'm just hoping not to get stopped out on anything. I expect 1120 to hold up, but we'll see.
One other observation is that volume is really down on gold trading the last week or so... not sure if that means much.
Support at 1112.2, resistance at 1122.9, 1127.4, 1133.2, 1137.9.
First, let me say I really enjoy reading your and roadrunner's comments...I'm not trading per se, but I do hold physical (and hopefully will continue adding).
Have you had much exposure to any silver stocks? Just curious as you and roadrunner seem to fairly well prognosticate short-term moves in gold. As stated, I'm adding to my silver positions and wondered if you see anything coming up in the next couple of weeks. I know, "pull out the crystal ball"...
Thanks for any insight.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Bot ZSL at 4.00 >>
Why, what do you see?
I've found Thomson's view on trading to be quite helpful to me this year even if at times I still have trouble controlling emotions that get one to buy or sell on panic. And I've heard his view echoed by many other long time traders....that is, trade like the banksters do (ie smaller increments, profit booking, buying weakness and selling strength). Thomson's longer term charts show both gold and silver coiling up. The short term weakness of Dec/January may not be around much longer. I'm not buying the dollar rally/strength scenario. And even if the dollar continues to move up for a while longer, gold and silver can still move up at the same time.
Stewart Thomson on gold
roadrunner
The pop at the open was a nice reward for holding over the weekend, and so far it's looking like 1153 will hold as strong support.
It's a bond auction week so I'm a little leary about gold, but I think this week will be different. The dollar top is supposed to be Mon or Tues, although this can vary be a day or two - perhaps Friday was the top, so that will help gold. I don't see a ton more of upside, I think 1190-1200 will be about it, and that's where I'm looking to sell on this move, but we'll have to see what it does when it gets there.
The bond auctions are mostly for very short term bonds, so demand should be decent, but the amounts are huge:
Mon: 3 month $25 billion auction and 6 month $26 billion auction
Tues: $40 billion of 3 year notes and $26 billion of 1 year notes
Wed: $21 billion of 10 year bonds
It will be nice to see what gold stocks do Monday, should be a great day. I read last week someone calling for $200 GDXJ.
Those living in Venezuela saw gold double over the weekend! How long until Obama does the same for us?
Some interesting reading, a look at the DOW priced in gold.
On a side note- $1142.50 seems to be the line in the sand and has been a key pivot point. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Update for Friday:
The miners are getting hit once again, some for the 4th day in a row while the stock market was hitting new highs yesterday and gold hanging tough into the 1140's. It seems they have a mind of their own sometimes. Miners peaked on Monday 1/11 which was the 25th day from when the correction began. That was at the last day of Bob Hoye's 19-25 day range. Nice call Bob! Some good buys to come soon in AUY, GRS, BVN, GSS, GG, GFI, RGLD, HL, AZK as some of the most heavily whacked miners so far since their 12/3 tops. GDXJ being kept elevated somewhat by a decent number of junior silvers and golds that are still trying to buck this week's downtrend. With treasuries and the Yen rebounding, and commodities tending to fall, it seems the reflation trade is back off for a bit.
roadrunner
<< <i>Looks like Cohodk is regretting his ZSL trade. Hopefully he's out of it. I did sell my silver contracts at ~18.40 on Friday, bought back in at ~18.70 tonight, and added gold contracts at ~1153. Super glad I bought that roll of silver a week ago, almost $2 lower!
The pop at the open was a nice reward for holding over the weekend, and so far it's looking like 1153 will hold as strong support.
It's a bond auction week so I'm a little leary about gold, but I think this week will be different. The dollar top is supposed to be Mon or Tues, although this can vary be a day or two - perhaps Friday was the top, so that will help gold. I don't see a ton more of upside, I think 1190-1200 will be about it, and that's where I'm looking to sell on this move, but we'll have to see what it does when it gets there.
The bond auctions are mostly for very short term bonds, so demand should be decent, but the amounts are huge:
Mon: 3 month $25 billion auction and 6 month $26 billion auction
Tues: $40 billion of 3 year notes and $26 billion of 1 year notes
Wed: $21 billion of 10 year bonds
It will be nice to see what gold stocks do Monday, should be a great day. I read last week someone calling for $200 GDXJ.
Those living in Venezuela saw gold double over the weekend! How long until Obama does the same for us?
Some interesting reading, a look at the DOW priced in gold. >>
Been a while since I revisited this thread. Still holding ZSL. I think dollar is about to start a run towards--possibly exceeding--the Dec highs. Silver is still riding the bottom of the broken uptrend from the July low. Primary trendline on silver is down to about the 15.50/16 area. I expect that to be reached. Probably not today, but maybe in the next 2 weeks. If the healthcare bill dies, doe that mean less Govt spending, at least for awhile?
Since I made the trade I was up 2%, which I would normally take as it was acheived in 2 days, but decided to hold. It isnt a big position but hedges physical holdings.
GDX and $XAU are both back to the uptrend line off the Nov 08 lows. This will be about the 7th test of the line. I think it is probably due for a break, but will not be a disasterous move to the downside. Metals just need to adjust the steepness of the trend. Ie, it is time to establish a new, less steep, trend, or at least return to the primary trend .
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If healthcare dies, I do not believe it will stop the government spending. I've always heard we were going to start paying for it now (taxes) but it wouldn't kick in for several years.
If healthcare passes, we would also continue the spending and taxes.
It's all about spending our way out of this depression, raising taxes, redistribution of wealth, spending to get more democratic votes.
When this healthcare is defeated or passed, then it's on to legalization of illegal aliens. Take a quick breath and then buy more precious metals.
I would agree with Cohodk that GDX/HUI is looking to finish up a C leg that seems to be underway. Typically GDX has corrected to within 5-10% of the 200 dma. That would take it down from the current 47 down to about 42-44. Since this correction is the first significant one in a while it could even challenge the 200 dma line. Until the gold miners complete their move it seems unlikely gold will at best cycle in a channel from 1115-1150. If GDX heads towards 44-45 gold will probably follow to under the 1115 range. About half of the major/intermediate gold miners have 10 day Aroon crosses which indicates the down move is getting into the heart of the move. Possibly another 1-2 weeks to complete this move? The miners have been moving counter the stock market and even counter the gold price at times. They seem determined in finding a new intermediate bottom.
In trying to pattern Jeff Kern's 35-39 trading day back pricing "SKI" index it seems that 16.2 is the line of no return on the USERX gold fund. Over the rest of this week the index has to close above that level to keep from initiating an intermediate sell signal on the move than began in the late summer. USAGX gold fund is also a very close substitute and possibly GLD....both of with both are teetering close to that sell signal line. Note that GDX, HUI, GOLDX, SCGDX and others have already given a sell signal. This USERX "signal" has worked pretty well for Kern over the past few years. Worth watching I guess.
Stewart Thomson on gold and the dollar
Thomson is always a fun read. He looks at things differently than most PM analysts. While suggesting a dollar rally is probably occuring he does not adovacate tossing out your gold, especially if you sold nothing in the $1180-$1225 range. He again references the potential for $200 GDXJ. Obviously a lot of the juniors are being accumulated doing these last 3-6 weeks of gold weakness as a number of them have really seen minimal corrections.
roadrunner
1129 is the bottom support of the upward channel which gold has found again after its brief departure up and down.
Silver bounced nicely off of its bottom channel support 2 weeks ago, and I don't see a significant decline from current levels coming... not below mid 17's anyway.
Charts below, if tinypic is working...
I'm glowing
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>While the weakness in gold stocks concerns me and your observations are definitely valid, I'll only agree that gold is heading down near-term with a decisive breach below 1129. Gold held up VERY well Tues despite the strength in the dollar, and it's testing that level again tonight, so we'll have to see how it handles this level. If this level holds up (and I think it will), I expect gold to launch (begin) a rebound to 1190 or better this week. I'm not sure what will happen from there, but I do think that a retest of recent highs is due.
1129 is the bottom support of the upward channel which gold has found again after its brief departure up and down.
Silver bounced nicely off of its bottom channel support 2 weeks ago, and I don't see a significant decline from current levels coming... not below mid 17's anyway.
Charts below, if tinypic is working...
1129 is now broken and a close here would be decisive. GDX and $XAU are both trading below the uptrend lines, and a close at these levels would be decisive. Silver at 17.50 would put ZSL over 4.50. Thats a 12% return for me.
In a trade I alluded to yesterday, I bot RXD---ultra short healthcare etf this morn at 30.80. Why?, cuz it upmove was already in the stocks. Most health insurers were already trading at levels higher than before Obama was even the Democratic candidate. The "good news" was already in the stocks. This is what I have been trying to get across in my writings. Expectations vs price--a VERY powerful investing tool.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
While I caught a good hunk of the bottom on gold's A leg my mistake this time was calling the end of the B leg much too early. I moved out too soon on the 2nd leg up and there was yet still a 3rd up leg remaining. Lesson learned. It's not always 3 legs. But that's history now and levels are now well below where I exited. A number of the miners are very beat up but have still a bit to go I think: AZK, AUY, RBY, GSS, JAG, GRS, KGC, GG, CDE, HL, KGC, to name a few. There will be good buying opportunities this week and next.
roadrunner
Never look back on a trade and say woulda, coulda, shoulda. Well done, roadrunner.
Sold 1/2 ZSL at 4.20 for 5%. My momo indicator on a 5-min chart reached a point that generally means a short term bottom. Silver probably wont go much lower today--17.83. Not bad for a 10-day investment, but my timing was off a little. Shoulda added more yesterday as I was quite sure dollar was gonna rally.
Also out of RXD for 2% gain in 68 min.
The dollar index has exceeded the Dec high but is right up against the 200dma. Will it break higher? The Euro is crashing down through its 200dma.
Probably should go and shovel the 9 inches of snow I got last night.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I like to go back if only to figure out what mistake I made and make note of it. I have found that I will tend to repeat the same mistakes if I don't somehow review them every so often. Buying too early on down moves has probably been my biggest battle. We all love things on sale, but often the first sale price is not even close to being the closeout special. And invariably that leads to being low on ammo when the biggest bargains finally appear. Things just have a way of getting much cheaper than you thought were possible....esp in gold/silver mines. I would not be surprised to see GDXJ close below its "all time low" on this leg (<24). Understand that it really never had a chance to start from the bottom when it first opened up for trading in November. This will be interesting. Though seeing GDXJ do a +20% gain in the middle of this correction was interesting as well (24 to 29).
Hoye's average gold correction period is 31-37 days. Today is day 32. That gives gold until next Wednesday to hit a final bottom. With next Wed. being gold futures expiration (plus a bond auction week) that would all fit well with a final bottoming.
roadrunner
<< <i>Nice move on that ZSL trade Cohodk. GSR seems like it just finished its quick 3rd leg down and is possibly consolidating again. This will boost the dollar for a while hitting both gold and silver for a bit. I won't rule out $16's on silver.
I like to go back if only to figure out what mistake I made and make note of it. I have found that I will tend to repeat the same mistakes if I don't somehow review them every so often. Buying too early on down moves has probably been my biggest battle. We all love things on sale, but often the first sale price is not even close to being the closeout special. And invariably that leads to being low on ammo when the biggest bargains finally appear. Things just have a way of getting much cheaper than you thought were possible....esp in gold/silver mines. I would not be surprised to see GDXJ close below its "all time low" on this leg (<24). Understand that it really never had a chance to start from the bottom when it first opened up for trading in November. This will be interesting.
roadrunner >>
I usually do the same, but buying right and selling too soon. My philosophy is a profit is a profit. Add them up at the end of the year. The only mistake is a trade that loses money. It is not a mistake to make less than you could have. Someone once said a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. A wise man.
One thing you could do is enter a new position on a piecemeal basis. Instead of going all in, buy 25%. If it still looks good buy another 25%. If it rallies, then great, you made money. If it drops, then you still have firepower to act. Another thing you do that I like is not being overconfident. I am always skeptical of every trade I make. I've heard from many commentators that Goldman Sachs trades like a paranoid schizophrenic. They make money and thats how I trade. I have seen many more people lose ALL their money being overconfident than I've seen make a ton being overconfident.
There is a lot of support on GDX in the 42.50 area. This had better hold, or my earlier comment of a "not too disasterous" selloff will prove massively wrong.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
My momo indicator has now reached a level not seen since August. Such an extreme level tells me the bears are in control and should lead to lower prices in the next few days.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Graham Summers on S&P vs. gold
Trader Dan on JS mentioned today that November's treasury buying was the biggest it's been in over 3 years. Buyers were mad for treasuries. Now if only we knew who was so keen on them. The UK has upped it's buying quite a bit and TD notes that they often front for other nations wishing to remain in the shadows. Or it could just be the USFed buying secretly on its own account.
roadrunner
Pretty decisive breakdown in PMs today. Moving averages should begin to flatline in the coming month(s). Draw an arrow at the end of those moving averages and thats the intermediate term direction.
This just reinforces my assertion that ALL asset classes are to be dated, not married.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It may have been decisive for the newbies who jumped on at $1150-$1225 but in my mind the correction as it is flowing is quite expected. Gold has usually done a zig-zag correction and we're finally getting the zag part out of the way. To those who felt that the touch of $1074 was it, that wouldn't have followed most every major gold correction of the past few years. Now it's a matter of whether gold just re-touches $1074 in a less abusive flat correction or goes deeper. If the C leg matches the decline of the A leg then $1000-$1020 is about where the retest is headed. I already see a number of miners bucking the trend and starting to flatten out. It's a bit early to decipher it but it makes me lean towards a "happier" ending at $1050-$1080. That would actually set up gold much better for another leg up through the spring. I'm not ready to toss in the towel for this spring with a month(s) long correction. I expect gold to do something good in Feb-May. But we have to play it out day by day. One bullish sign that I have to still figure out is that the Chaikin Money flows have basically been strengthening during the past week or two. That typically does not happen during an extended correction. That's the only indicator I see that's not lined up on the bearish side of the miners.
USERX closed at 15.72 which obliterated the 16.2 line of resistance. So that's it for the intermediate run from August...officially over per the SKI index. Next step is to see how the longer term 92-96 index fares.
roadrunner
Back to the lack of volatility after 10:30, I think this may also be a symptom of an apathetic market. There is insufficient conviction of both bulls and bears. Activity only increases when there is news on which to act upon. Similar action is usually seen during the dog days of Summer.
Traders may look to other areas where the volatility is greater. We may soon see this played out in commodities, currencies and bonds, all of which are interconnected.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I am currently thinking about buying tomorrow morning then once a week for the next three. Thoughts?
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What I do see in the gold chart is a large triangle that has been forming since late October. The first leg (A) was the peak ending at $1226. We've since done a (BC) and are in process of forming the (D) leg down. Since this triangle followed an up move (and we still have to finish the other half of the leg to $1300+) the most logical resolution is that the (E) leg will bounce off $1100 and then continue up. The triangle will need to resolve by next week which seems to fit with other timing parameters already mentioned (such as 31-37 days of correction). Even the dollar's current strength seems to indicate lower gold to come we just may not see much below $1100 at the triangle support.
Buying once a week is one method. If one didn't want to add more gold at $1074 back on 12/21 when things were way oversold why is $1110 more inviting?
roadrunner
Today on the other hand I do have some extra funds to invest and I would like to make the best of this opportunity. I know what I want to buy, I am just looking for the best opportunity that may present itself in the near term and was looking for some input other than my own.
Is this the correct place to ask my question, or should I start a new topic? I haven't been around long enough to know if this is only for paper gold and miners or trading in general.
BSTs with: Coll3ctor, gsa1fan, mkman123, ajbauman, tydye, piecesofme, pursuitofliberty
Travelog - 20in20travels.com
A lot of people were left back at the gate at $905-$931 gold as well as $1020-1030 while waiting for "guaranteed" further weakness....that never came. I'm beginning to feel we may be in the process of forming up another similar pattern that all the Nadler gold "bugs" will be anticipating a sure-fire $1020-$1050.....that once again might never come.
roadrunner
2) I think we are very likely to test the Dec lows of $1076.50. A breech of this level and I will supersize my hedges on my physical positions. I entered a small short postion @$1118.
3) I just noticed that the dollar bounced perfectly off of it's 50% fibonacci retracement level Tuesday. It's again at resistance (peaked above it for a second)
4) PMer's don't dispair. The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage. A positive sign for the reflation trade. The Euro smells and that's 50% of the UDX.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Thats the exact point I've been trying to get across for the last 2 years. Relativity, relativity, relativity.
Sold other 1/2 of ZSL at 4.30. Probably goes higher but I have a thing for birds and horses.
Bot XME when covered ZSL at 52.10, sold 222 seconds later at 52.65 for 1% gain. Add 'em all up at end of year. That was a fun little dip.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thats the exact point I've been trying to get across for the last 2 years. Relativity, relativity, relativity.
Relativity makes much more sense to me when at least one of the 2 parties is not trying to debase their currency into the ground. But since both are doing it (at varying rates and time frames) the end result is both currencies headed towards the basement. In that scenario gold ultimately wins even if one currency looks stronger than the other. Yes, the dollar index could "strengthen" 20% because the US currency only debases 40% while the others making up the index debase 50%. On paper that would look like a win for a stronger dollar. Yet all the currencies still lost 40-50% of their value against gold. One can still make 20% trading on those paper currency gains. That part of the game remains the same.
roadrunner
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Say what? The last time that I despaired for a pm position was in 1981, and I didn't stay with it for long.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The Euro smells and that's 50% of the UDX.
Thats the exact point I've been trying to get across for the last 2 years. Relativity, relativity, relativity.
Relativity makes much more sense to me when at least one of the 2 parties is not trying to debase their currency into the ground. But since both are doing it (at varying rates and time frames) the end result is both currencies headed towards the basement. In that scenario gold ultimately wins even if one currency looks stronger than the other. Yes, the dollar index could "strengthen" 20% because the US currency only debases 40% while the others making up the index debase 50%. On paper that would look like a win for a stronger dollar. Yet all the currencies still lost 40-50% of their value against gold. One can still make 20% trading on those paper currency gains. That part of the game remains the same.
roadrunner >>
I dont dispute that gold will always maintain a relative value.
However those holding PM's should be prepared for currency realignments that will cause 20% or greater loss of value. And dont expect them to go up year after year after year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> The Aussie and Canadian dollars have shown amazing strength against this mini dollar barrage
These charts dont look that great to me. The Aussie dollar may be making a double top. Not a huge one, but could an 8% drop. Canada wants to go sideways, perhaps 5% downside. >>
Could and doing are two different things. In the now the Aussie and the Cando have held up GREAT. Could it change? Yes, up, down or sideways. I was basically illustrating that with all the dollars strength against the euro that these currencies have held up well. They have. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......