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Red Copper and Me


As many of you know I am FANATICAL about collecting Red Copper. I live it and breathe it. I worship it and try to share it with other collectors who show promise and appreciation and enjoyment with it.

There have been several posts about concerns because PCGS is not going to guarantee the color of Red copper coins sold or graded after January 1, 2010. I can honestly say that I have more at stake than probably anyone else out there who collects copper coins. I have also stated that I believe I believe it is in the BEST interest of the collectors/investors who wish to collect/buy copper coins certified by PCGS.
IMHO this move will educate collectors/investors who will continue to collect/buy copper coins. I hope it will also educate the graders/principals at PCGS about their mistakes about grading/certifying and buying back problem coins.
There is definitely a correlation between a grade and a price for a copper coin certified by PCGS. I hope it will also wake up some Set Registry participants that it is not always a wise decision to buy/invest in the highest graded copper coin. A lower graded coin may be more attractive and a better investment,collectible.

I will continue to lobby PCGS to do the right thing when grading or dealing with problem copper coins. It is not only the coin doctors who fiddle with copper coins who is to blame. Storage of red copper coins is very important. Education and experience is the most important ! Do not ever dip and strip copper coins ! Originality is always BEST.

StewartBlay
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Comments

  • MikeInFLMikeInFL Posts: 10,188 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I have also stated that I believe I believe it is in the BEST interest of the collectors/investors who wish to collect/buy copper coins certified by PCGS.
    IMHO this move will educate collectors/investors who will continue to collect/buy copper coins. I hope it will also educate the graders/principals at PCGS about their mistakes about grading/certifying and buying back problem coins. >>



    Using that same logic would you also see as in the BEST interest of the collectors/investors if they didn't slab copper at all?

    After all, it would also force collectors/investors to educate themselves.

    Frankly, your logic in my eyes is flawed. Spin it however you want it, but PCGS is going back on their word. We sent coins into PCGS and paid fees for their guarantee. Now, through no fault of our own PCGS is going back on their word and the market for these coins will slip as a result and collectors who hold their collection will be hurt by this.

    Perhaps for someone like you who has a direct line into the principals of PCGS to get what you want out of them along with all the top-pops you might not view this as problematic.

    But at my level, I can't think of a single good thing that comes out of this decision, and I'm astounded that you can say what you have with a straight face when considering the impact on the confidence of PCGS, their now-worthless guarantee, and us collectors who are left holding the bag.
    Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
  • There is a world of difference between this policy change and a complete devaluing of PCGS certification. PCGS is addressing a specific issue and doing as much as they can to contain its impact without affecting the rest of their certification. Yes, it is a bit worrisome, and I will start getting nervous if we start seeing additional policy changes like DMPL Morgans no longer being guaranteed. But, it's hardly the complete destruction of worth in PCGS' certification. They did it for a distinct and specific reason, to address a specific issue, one that we have known about for years, and one that NGC has already also had to address at some point.

    One thought did come to mind, something I was thinking around eleven last night when I really needed to get to sleep. I wonder if PCGS could design a holder that itself is designed to change color over time, or to have a component that changes, to indicate elapsed time since grading at a glance. That way, a coin designated red can be guaranteed red a year later, when the embedded test strip has turned brown and spotty. Coins in current holders could be assumed time-tested red a year from now, and those in older holders, be they green, rattler, or older blue "Official Grading Service of PNG", could be assumed to have withstood the time test.
    Improperly Cleaned, Our passion for numismatics is Genuine! Now featuring correct spelling.
  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    Perhaps for someone like you who has a direct line into the principals of PCGS to get what you want out of them along with all the top-pops you might not view this as problematic.
    >>



    Mike, If you think that Stewart is "in bed" with DH and the other principals of PCGS you ought to read some of his posts here over the years regarding PCGS and its grading and policies. Believe me, it ain't pretty.
    Steveimage
  • ChrisRxChrisRx Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭✭
    So... how much did PCGS pay you to say that Stewart? image
    image
  • drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,026 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In addition to MikeInFL, I'll add I'm disgusted with PCGS. In the last year and a half they've 91'd many of my submitted Lincolns. All alone they knew the direction of their policy, but took the fees and didn't have the 'balloons' to render a grade. I'm not new to collecting Lincolns and will assure you many of mine that 91'd were NT. What a feckless group. You can be damn sue they'll get a coin or two, for review, before the year's out
  • MikeInFLMikeInFL Posts: 10,188 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    Perhaps for someone like you who has a direct line into the principals of PCGS to get what you want out of them along with all the top-pops you might not view this as problematic.
    >>



    Mike, If you think that Stewart is "in bed" with DH and the other principals of PCGS you ought to read some of his posts here over the years regarding PCGS and its grading and policies. Believe me, it ain't pretty.
    Steveimage >>



    Hi Steve, I have read many/most of Stuart's complaints on these forums over the years, both before and after I joined. FWIW, I didn't say Stewart was in bed with DH, but if you think that DH will accept my phone calls or e-mails with the same vigor as Stewart's then I'm not quite sure what I can do to convince you otherwise....Mike
    Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
  • Going back on their guarantee stinks. What stinks even more is not "grandfathering" coins graded before the deadline. Makes no sense.
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    ALL MY COPPER COINS ARE STILL GUARANTEED ! AND SO ARE EVERY OTHER COLLECTORS COINS ! I don't think you guys really understand what will happen. Its a little like growing up. Your parents are responsible for you until you are 18 or 21 and then YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN SCREW UPS.

    if you screw up you suffer the consequences.

    Mike in Florida - If you think I get what I want out of PCGS then guess again. Don't get me started ! Encapsulating copper coins enables the handling of coins and the storage of coins. It makes viewing them possible and easier. Before slabbing most copper coins were locked up or kept in coin cabinets and rolls. BTW the usual reason PCGS will answer me is because they know I am very good at starting trouble.

    Basically the new PCGS policy is Caveat Emptor. If anyone who reads this post has a question about a copper coin they can consult myself or a dealer of their choice. When PCGS started in the 1980's only dealers could submit coins and we use to screen coins from collectors for encapsulation.

    Golfer72 - PCGS coins graded before 1/1/10 ARE grandfathered provided they are not sold or cracked out.

    STEWART

  • lusterloverlusterlover Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Golfer72 - PCGS coins graded before 1/1/10 ARE grandfathered provided they are not sold or cracked out.

    STEWART >>



    Stewart,

    This is a big issue you are glossing over. The point Mike and everyone including myself is trying to make is that these "grandfathered" coins had a lifetime guarantee WITHOUT any caveats - held OR sold for a lifetime. You are THE copper expert and you may not be worried given your collection, knowledge and net worth but for us average collectors, it is a HUGE deal.
  • MikeInFLMikeInFL Posts: 10,188 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>ALL MY COPPER COINS ARE STILL GUARANTEED ! AND SO ARE EVERY OTHER COLLECTORS COINS ! I don't think you guys really understand what will happen. Its a little like growing up. Your parents are responsible for you until you are 18 or 21 and then YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN SCREW UPS.

    if you screw up you suffer the consequences. >>


    Unless, of course, if you're PCGS, then if you screw up all you have to do is change your guarantee.

    Please don't insult my intelligence. I understand what will and has happened, and while my experience level is not as high as some on this forum, I am hardly a rookie at the coin game. I take full responsibility for my actions, why shouldn't PCGS be held to the same standard?




    << <i>Mike in Florida - If you think I get what I want out of PCGS then guess again. Don't get me started ! Encapsulating copper coins enables the handling of coins and the storage of coins. It makes viewing them possible and easier. Before slabbing most copper coins were locked up or kept in coin cabinets and rolls. BTW the usual reason PCGS will answer me is because they know I am very good at starting trouble. >>


    So on the one hand you can't get what you want out of PCGS, yet on the other hand PCGS will answer you? Regardless, the point I was making, and I'm sorry if I overstated it, is that collectors like me (and others in this thread) don't have the same conduit to DH/PCGS.




    << <i>Basically the new PCGS policy is Caveat Emptor. If anyone who reads this post has a question about a copper coin they can consult myself or a dealer of their choice. When PCGS started in the 1980's only dealers could submit coins and we use to screen coins from collectors for encapsulation. >>


    Thank you for the offer. I know you're very gracious with sharing your time and experience with other collectors. That says a lot about what type of person you are, and please don't take my disagreeing with your perspective as anything other than a difference of opinion. However, none of that and none of what you said above changes the fact that PCGS took our money and graded our coins with a promise of a guarantee and has now gone back on their word.

    So if Caveat Emptor is the way it's going to be, why do we need PCGS in the first place if not for their guarantee?

    Again, using your logic above, if you view this as good because it will push collectors to get educated, why not take that logic to mean we should be purchasing raw coins instead of PCGS-encased ones. After all, it will push collectors to learn for themselves, and AirTites are lot cheaper than PCGS slabs.

    What would happen if Ford or GM said "You know that 5 year, 50k mile warranty we sold you with your car, well, at the end of this year it is null and void". What kind of reaction would that get? That car buyers should be more educated on their car's maintenance? Please. There would be a class action lawsuit, and the car manufacturers would lose. And that type of action wouldn't surprise me in this case -- let's remember the PCGS guarantee didn't say anything about "subject to change".



    << <i>Golfer72 - PCGS coins graded before 1/1/10 ARE grandfathered provided they are not sold or cracked out. >>


    Agreed, but when we try and sell a coin (purchased presumably with a Guarantee and the premium associated therein, or the investment in grading) that guarantee is worthless and the price of collector's coins on the market will go down -- through no fault of our own other than believing PCGS would live up to their word.

    Take care....Mike
    Collector of Large Cents, US Type, and modern pocket change.
  • drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,026 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "... their word." Kinda a hollow sound. Mike
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I tend to agree with Stewart on this. When you are buying a coin, you are buying a coin, not the holder. Copper doesn't lend itself to sight useen buying. Every coin needs to be personally evaluated. Because it shouldn't trade sight unseen, the quality of the coin is what drives the price. If the coin is RB in RD holder it is worth something, but not RD money. You have to evaluate it on its own. So if you have a real RD coin, should it be worth the same as a RB in RD holder?
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:


  • << <i>I tend to agree with Stewart on this. When you are buying a coin, you are buying a coin, not the holder. Copper doesn't lend itself to sight useen buying. Every coin needs to be personally evaluated. Because it shouldn't trade sight unseen, the quality of the coin is what drives the price. If the coin is RB in RD holder it is worth something, but not RD money. You have to evaluate it on its own. So if you have a real RD coin, should it be worth the same as a RB in RD holder? >>

    Rick, that's the easy part. What you omitted from your post is the (likely far more frequently occurring) scenario where a buyer acquires what appears to be a very nice looking full "RD" coin at a full "RD" price and the coin later turns. If PCGS has so much trouble with such coins, so too, will dealers and collectors.
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    COINGUY 1 - Mark, I know you have a good eye and know your stuff. Will you stop selling copper coins ? If my memory serves me correctly you had cold feet even when PCGS had their guarantee.

    So am I correct to say you didn't really sell expensive copper while the coins were guaranteed and probably will not sell expensive copper coins after the change in policy.

    Mike in Florida - Lets see what happens ! I'll bet the 1909 VDB in Proof 65 red brings 50K even without the guarantee. I would say the coin was worth only 50K with the guarantee.
    If Ford or GM gave you a 50K mile guarantee and some clown poured salt in your gas tank what do you think they would do,replace your engine ?

    Stewart
  • BWRCBWRC Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I tend to agree with Stewart on this. When you are buying a coin, you are buying a coin, not the holder. Copper doesn't lend itself to sight useen buying. Every coin needs to be personally evaluated. Because it shouldn't trade sight unseen, the quality of the coin is what drives the price. If the coin is RB in RD holder it is worth something, but not RD money. You have to evaluate it on its own. So if you have a real RD coin, should it be worth the same as a RB in RD holder? >>

    Rick, that's the easy part. What you omitted from your post is the (likely far more frequently occurring) scenario where a buyer acquires what appears to be a very nice looking full "RD" coin at a full "RD" price and the coin later turns. If PCGS has so much trouble with such coins, so too, will dealers and collectors. >>



    Mark or other members please chime in,

    Lets take a high grade MS Red Indian Head cent that was struck in 1909. It sits in various settings and possibly in different parts of the country. The owner of this new penny delights in its beautiful "original red color". Time passes by and this coin trades hands many times until it is purchased as a ungraded gem Red Indian Head cent in 1995. The dealer sends this coin to PCGS and it grades MS66RD and is of a PQ nature. It resides in a green label holder. The coin has now survived it's first 86 years since struck mostly unprotected from the enviorment but now has the additional protection of a PCGS holder. I think common sense would tell us the coin now has a better chance of staying pristine than it did in its first 86 years.

    Now lets fast forward another 15 years to Jan 7th 2010. The coin is still as red and pristine as the day it was graded 15 years prior! The coin is now 101 years old. Let's say I am at the FUN show and see this exact coin in a dealers case still in the same green label holder it was graded in 15 years prior. I inspect this gem 1909 IHC PCGS MS66RD and ask the dealer how much he wants for the coin. He quotes me fair price, should I fear buying this coin? What are the odds of this coin turning on me in the holder? Could this coin possibly be a high demand item because of its "seasoned" existance in the "OGH"?

    Brian Wagner Rare Coins, Specializing in PCGS graded, Shield, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels varieties.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,554 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Brian,

    Per your example. You know copper and have an extraodinary eye for quality. So would you ever send that 66RD in the green holder in for regrade if you knew it was a no-brainer 67 and worth 20x more?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear



  • << <i>COINGUY 1 - Mark, I know you have a good eye and know your stuff. Will you stop selling copper coins ? If my memory serves me correctly you had cold feet even when PCGS had their guarantee.

    So am I correct to say you didn't really sell expensive copper while the coins were guaranteed and probably will not sell expensive copper coins after the change in policy.

    Mike in Florida - Lets see what happens ! I'll bet the 1909 VDB in Proof 65 red brings 50K even without the guarantee. I would say the coin was worth only 50K with the guarantee.
    If Ford or GM gave you a 50K mile guarantee and some clown poured salt in your gas tank what do you think they would do,replace your engine ?

    Stewart >>

    Stewart, I generally prefer and handle "RB" and "BN" copper to "RD" copper. The two main reasons are:

    1) That the usually-seen flaws of various types on "RD" copper bother/distract me more than they do on "RB" or "BN" copper.
    and
    2) I like the lower prices and relative value offered by "RB" and "BN" copper compared to "RD" copper.

    So, as you guessed, the change in the guarantee wont really affect me much at all, at least as far as I know. Well, unless you stop sending me those seven figure checks each month to supply you with all of the "RD" copper I can find. image

    But the above is really beside the point. I'm not thinking of my business, but rather of collectors. Rick brought up a fair point about collectors buying copper coins on a sight-seen basis being able to distinguish between a "RD" copper coin and one that has mellowed or changed color. But he didn't address what I believe to be the more widespread and dangerous problem of coins that are "RD" but which later go bad.

    Sadly, both PCGS and many collectors of copper will suffer, albeit in different way, due to the actions of coin doctors.


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>I tend to agree with Stewart on this. When you are buying a coin, you are buying a coin, not the holder. Copper doesn't lend itself to sight useen buying. Every coin needs to be personally evaluated. Because it shouldn't trade sight unseen, the quality of the coin is what drives the price. If the coin is RB in RD holder it is worth something, but not RD money. You have to evaluate it on its own. So if you have a real RD coin, should it be worth the same as a RB in RD holder? >>

    Rick, that's the easy part. What you omitted from your post is the (likely far more frequently occurring) scenario where a buyer acquires what appears to be a very nice looking full "RD" coin at a full "RD" price and the coin later turns. If PCGS has so much trouble with such coins, so too, will dealers and collectors. >>



    Mark or other members please chime in,

    Lets take a high grade MS Red Indian Head cent that was struck in 1909. It sits in various settings and possibly in different parts of the country. The owner of this new penny delights in its beautiful "original red color". Time passes by and this coin trades hands many times until it is purchased as a ungraded gem Red Indian Head cent in 1995. The dealer sends this coin to PCGS and it grades MS66RD and is of a PQ nature. It resides in a green label holder. The coin has now survived it's first 86 years since struck mostly unprotected from the enviorment but now has the additional protection of a PCGS holder. I think common sense would tell us the coin now has a better chance of staying pristine than it did in its first 86 years.

    Now lets fast forward another 15 years to Jan 7th 2010. The coin is still as red and pristine as the day it was graded 15 years prior! The coin is now 101 years old. Let's say I am at the FUN show and see this exact coin in a dealers case still in the same green label holder it was graded in 15 years prior. I inspect this gem 1909 IHC PCGS MS66RD and ask the dealer how much he wants for the coin. He quotes me fair price, should I fear buying this coin? What are the odds of this coin turning on me in the holder? Could this coin possibly be a high demand item because of its "seasoned" existance in the "OGH"? >>

    Brian, in answer to your questions:

    No, I don't think you should fear buying the coin.

    I don't know what the odds of it turning in the holder are, but would guess they are quite low.

    3) Yes, it could be in high demand, due, in large part to it being in an older holder.

    But, like Rick, you brought up a scenario, which I think is a fairly easy call. What about all of the nice looking copper coins that are not in green label holders and that buyers and sellers don't know the history of? Have you two thought about going into business together?image

    By the way, to all involved, I think this is a good discussion, which includes some widely differing opinions, but polite posts. image
  • BWRCBWRC Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Brian,

    Per your example. You know copper and have an extraodinary eye for quality. So would you ever send that 66RD in the green holder in for regrade if you knew it was a no-brainer 67 and worth 20x more? >>



    Dave,

    I probably would in that case because of the upside potential but if it upgraded I would put the coin away for a few years so it would be "seasoned" in the holder. I would have records of when it was graded so a buyer could have evidence that the coin was not graded recently. I would also have the coin imaged while in the green label holder for future comparison purposes.

    I see pristine Red copper coins graded long ago "seasoned" will be sought after by educated copper collectors. Such coins in Rattlers, OGH, and 7 digit blues should have a high future demand.
    Brian Wagner Rare Coins, Specializing in PCGS graded, Shield, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels varieties.
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Quite frankly the only Photo sealed coins that I have had to buy back were coins that were photo sealed when they were just graded and later turned. So they fooled PCGS and me. Enhanced RD coins are a big problem, no question there. But I recall many collections offered to me that were totally original raw coins that were freshly sent to PCGS before offering them to me. I have to shake my head because they were grossly overgraded - RB's in RD holders. They didn't change, they were RB to begin with. Just overgraded. But the next person to see those coins will (wrongly) think they changed in the holder too.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,554 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Brian,

    Per your example. You know copper and have an extraodinary eye for quality. So would you ever send that 66RD in the green holder in for regrade if you knew it was a no-brainer 67 and worth 20x more? >>



    Dave,

    I probably would in that case because of the upside potential but if it upgraded I would put the coin away for a few years so it would be "seasoned" in the holder. I would have records of when it was graded so a buyer could have evidence that the coin was not graded recently. I would also have the coin imaged while in the green label holder for future comparison purposes.

    I see pristine Red copper coins graded long ago "seasoned" will be sought after by educated copper collectors. Such coins in Rattlers, OGH, and 7 digit blues should have a high future demand. >>



    I think you could be right about that and find it unfortunate that you would have to jump through hoops to prove stability.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BWRCBWRC Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Brian,

    Per your example. You know copper and have an extraodinary eye for quality. So would you ever send that 66RD in the green holder in for regrade if you knew it was a no-brainer 67 and worth 20x more? >>



    Dave,

    I probably would in that case because of the upside potential but if it upgraded I would put the coin away for a few years so it would be "seasoned" in the holder. I would have records of when it was graded so a buyer could have evidence that the coin was not graded recently. I would also have the coin imaged while in the green label holder for future comparison purposes.

    I see pristine Red copper coins graded long ago "seasoned" will be sought after by educated copper collectors. Such coins in Rattlers, OGH, and 7 digit blues should have a high future demand. >>



    I think you could be right about that and find it unfortunate that you would have to jump through hoops to prove stability. >>



    I believe it will be a different world for PCGS RD/RB copper after Jan 1st. I think some collectors will need to get more educated about the copper coins they are purchasing. It would also be a good idea to work with an experienced dealer who can help educate them and who will look out for their best interests. It's going to be a bit more like selling Real Estate, there will have to be more disclosure about the past history of RD/RB copper coins, especially the expensive ones. This is why I think the more vintage holders, containing quality for the grade coins will be even more desirable than they are at present.
    Brian Wagner Rare Coins, Specializing in PCGS graded, Shield, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels varieties.
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ManOfCoins- Why not buy PQ RB coins? Seems like you are thowing babies out with the bath water.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sounds like a storage problem. Tip - Don't store your coins under the water heater.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭
    Talking about OGH coins having an "advantage" in the future as regards PCGS color guarantee changes. Most of my PCGS slabs are the blue ones with the series and coin number on the label. They stopped issuing them in 2005 or 2006. So my question is: Does that mean that all my RED labeled coins will remain RED? Can I assume they won't turn in the slab in the future because of doctoring? Steveimage
  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 5,974 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Anytime I buy a coin that is in a PCGS holder with a grade and color designation of red, I expect that coin not to have any of the following defects. If the "color change" is due to any of the below, I expect PCGS to honor the guarantee, even for coins purchased/graded after 1/1/10.

    PCGS No-Grade Codes

    82 Filed Rims
    83 Peeling Lamination
    84 Holed and Plugged
    90 Not Genuine
    91 Questionable Color
    92 Cleaning
    93 Planchet Flaw
    94 Altered Surfaces
    95 Scratch / Rim Dent
    96 Refund - No Service
    97 Environmental Damage
    98 Damage
    99 PVC Residue
    Doug
  • BWRCBWRC Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Talking about OGH coins having an "advantage" in the future as regards PCGS color guarantee changes. Most of my PCGS slabs are the blue ones with the series and coin number on the label. They stopped issuing them in 2005 or 2006. So my question is: Does that mean that all my RED labeled coins will remain RED? Can I assume they won't turn in the slab in the future because of doctoring? Steveimage >>




    Steve,

    If I am correct I think the 7 digit blue label holders ended around 2/2002? then the holder type you mention went from 2002 until 2006. Seems like 4 years would give the coins enough time in the holder to prove they are stable. So how are your coins holding up?
    Brian Wagner Rare Coins, Specializing in PCGS graded, Shield, Liberty and Buffalo Nickels varieties.
  • EagleEyeEagleEye Posts: 7,676 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What if PCGS went out of business or sold to some European operation, would you stop collecting altogether? Buy the coin, not the holder.
    Rick Snow, Eagle Eye Rare Coins, Inc.Check out my new web site:
  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Talking about OGH coins having an "advantage" in the future as regards PCGS color guarantee changes. Most of my PCGS slabs are the blue ones with the series and coin number on the label. They stopped issuing them in 2005 or 2006. So my question is: Does that mean that all my RED labeled coins will remain RED? Can I assume they won't turn in the slab in the future because of doctoring? Steveimage >>




    Steve,

    If I am correct I think the 7 digit blue label holders ended around 2/2002? then the holder type you mention went from 2002 until 2006. Seems like 4 years would give the coins enough time in the holder to prove they are stable. So how are your coins holding up? >>



    Brian,

    Actually my business strike RD (about 25 slabs) look OK. Most are full red and a few appear to have mellowed a bit. Most of my red business strikes are graded 64 with a few 62,63,65 & 66. About 20 slabs are RB. Of these slabbed coins almost all are "wheats". Includes all the keys and most of the semi keys except a few that bodybaged once or twice. I now have 3 of the semi keys in "genuine holders". Overall, I'm satisfied with how the coins have held up, but I don't have any "top pops" that I've put big bucks into.

    My proof coins have also generally held up nicely, especially the wheats and my 1990 no S. A couple of my mid 70's DCAMs have toned on the obverse.

    Steveimage
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    MAN OF COINS - If you need only one coin MPL to complete your set ... I'll tell you what

    I'll give you a BLAY COPPER COLOR GUARANTEE. If I sell you a RED 1909 VDB Matte Proof Lincoln I personally will guarantee the color of the coin "As long as you own the coin"

    and you promise to take care of it.

    Stewart Blay
  • I know we have all dedicated a great deal of time trying to understand/predict the fallout from the PCGS decision. While there is certainly a question as to the extent, there seems to be consensus on the following points:

    1. Those coins that have respectable pedigrees, proved to have been holdered beyond the "turning time", and/or purchased from dealers with an expertise in red copper will outpace the rest of the copper market.

    2. Buyers will need to improve their education, ie buying from online auction houses or the internet will diminish - or at least prices realized will.

    3. Purchasers after January 1, 2010 will be riskier to collectors and dealers as a direct result of the PCGS policy change.

    I consider all of these to be negative factors to the copper market and prices will real respond accordingly.

    As to the first point, these coins have always commanded a premium and most assuredly will so in the future. The more interesting question is "premium on what price". If red copper in the $1K to $10k range (and I think you'll find that the vast majority of red MPLs, Proof Indians, even better date circulated Lincs and Indians fall within this range) falls, then these premiums will also...allbeit remaining still higher in price. One wonders what Rick would pay for a collection of recently slabbed PCGS Indians proofs without the backstop of a PCGS guarantee having acknowledged that some coin doctors can fool the very best - which he certainly is. An example is the 1874 PCGS Proof 65 Cameo Indian that Rick has in his online catalog. I bought what I'm sure is a lesser quality one in a newer slab and without a gilded pedigree back in 2008 for $3700. Is the one currently for sale worth a 90% premium? Only demand can answer that question, but if I post my coin for sale for $2,800, how can this not have downward pressure on his coin and others like it?

    Second point. I recall that one of the tremendous positives PCGS provided dealers, investors, and collectors alike was STANDARDIZATION of the coin market. My slabbed coin was essentially the same coin as somebody elses (accounting for a narrow range of grading perameters and the subjective elements of eye appeal, etc.) and thus could be sold sight unseen with some level of confidence of what the coin was generally equal. Obviously, that standardization is no longer the case with some pre2010 red coppers guaranteed and others not (once they've been sold). The explosion of online venues are a direct result of this standardization and will produce lower auction/purchase results that I believe have been a major driver in higher coin prices for most of the decade. The real caveat emptor will be dealers buying red copper before the impact of these changes are fuller known. Anyone mortgaging the house to buy red copper in Florida next month? I wouldn't.

    Third point. Markets, be they coins, junk bonds, or credit default swaps, automatically price risk - real or imagined - into pricing structures. I'm "imagining" significant risk to my future copper purchases and will be bidding accordingly. Please review my post on some personal examples in the proof Indian realm to underscore changes in my behavior as a result of the non-transferability of the PCGS guarantee. I doubt I'll be the only one who reavaluates what I buy and how much I'll be willing to pay..

    I do not believe this change to be the end of the world in the copper market. But I see no way for this change not to negatively impact prices and interest in these coins.

    Brent
  • I'm buying all the PCGS copper I can find so I can amass HUGE losses, which will lay the foundation for HUGE profits when the class-action suit goes down. image
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  • We'll have to see what happens to the market. In the mean time, it's important to keep in mind that until the date changeover happens, we're only guessing what will happen. If the market values drop, it could be a temporary effect, too--it might be a good time for bargain hunters.

    Another factor to consider is that while PCGS is ammending its guarantee in the coming week, NGC's policy, already somewhat more limited than PCGS, has been in place for years. Given that NGC's market reputation is competitive with PCGS, it is entirely possible that nothing will happen, or that we may see only a slight blip, such as, say, a 5-10% drop in the mid-range, $500 to $5000, coins for a few months. NGC's guarantee expires ten years after certification--which is odd, because it's the first few months that are the most harrowing for the certifier.

    PCGS seems to have a slight edge in terms of overall price in gold and silver; I'm less familar with price differences in copper. Anyone care to comment on the market comparisons between the two certifiers when it comes to copper? That is, how did the two compare before this policy change?
    Improperly Cleaned, Our passion for numismatics is Genuine! Now featuring correct spelling.
  • bolivarshagnastybolivarshagnasty Posts: 7,348 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>MAN OF COINS - If you need only one coin MPL to complete your set ... I'll tell you what

    I'll give you a BLAY COPPER COLOR GUARANTEE. If I sell you a RED 1909 VDB Matte Proof Lincoln I personally will guarantee the color of the coin "As long as you own the coin"

    and you promise to take care of it.

    Stewart Blay >>




    Hello, Helloooo. Anyone home?image
  • There can be about a 20% lower price point in auction results between NGC and PCGS, but in red copper, PCGS auction results have been in the 150%-2000% higher range for PCGS graded copper, particularly in the scarcer dates in high grade red. Check results for DLRC. and you'll see what I mean. Many of my top Registry customers have written or called to tell me they will remain dormant for now.

    Lucky for me I had an emergency medical situation visit me on Dec 23, and wy wife has been doing all the mailing and invoicing for me. I'll be out of commission for about seven months. My customers tell me the coins I've sold them
    have not changed in the holder, but their potential resale value has flown out the window. Dealers with large inventories will likely suffer major dislocations as a result of PCGS 's unfair pulling of color quarantee.

    I usually agree with my friends Stewart and Rick Snow in their postings here, but I see no positive benefit to collectors by this policy change. If allowed to stand, in my opinion this was an unfair and cowardly decision.

    Ira Stein
    Collector and Dealer
    Dealer/old-time collector
  • LeeGLeeG Posts: 12,162


    << <i>I'll be out of commission for about seven months. >>




    image



    and I can understand where you're coming from in the rest of your post! image
  • PLEPLE Posts: 193 ✭✭
    I can honestly say that I have more at stake than probably anyone else out there who collects copper coins. I have also stated that I believe I believe it is in the BEST interest of the collectors/investors who wish to collect/buy copper coins certified by PCGS.

    So Stewart, you are saying that collectors should continue to purchase RD coins certified by PCGS. Well, of course you are saying that! You have the most expensive PCGS RD copper collection.

    But, I am concerned about my conversation with Don Willis. He told me two important things:

    1. Coin doctors have become so good, that his PCGS graders can no longer tell if the color of a coin was altered.

    2. Lincoln cents is the biggest problem area for doctored copper coins.

    So, Stewart, you specialize in Lincoln cents. Based upon Don Willis' comments, I now have questions about all RD collections, including mine and yours. How does anybody know whether the color of the coins in your collection were altered by a coin doctor/sculptor?
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    PLE - I AM SAYING YOU SHOULD CONTINUE PURCHASING RED COPPER COINS.

    BUT EDUCATE YOURSELF OR GET A SPECIALIST LIKE MYSELF TO ASSIST YOU

    What does Don Willis know about Red Copper ? I would tell Don Willis to educate himself before he starts spouting incorrect facts.

    There are two VERY competent graders/authenticators at PCGS who know copper very well. David Hall does a superb job of quality control but he is not perfect.

    The real problem is uneducated collectors/investors who buy expensive copper and don't take care of it. PCGS can't assume this responsibility any longer

    For your information GOLD is by far the most widely doctored coins and the easiest metal to alter. Ask any metallurgist or admitted coin doctor and they will tell you the same thing.
    Hopefully John Albanese and CAC with control the further doctoring of gold.

    Don't ever accuse me of doctoring red copper ! Educate yourself

    Stewart
  • PLEPLE Posts: 193 ✭✭
    EDUCATE YOURSELF OR GET A SPECIALIST LIKE MYSELF TO ASSIST YOU

    The whole purpose of a TPG, like PCGS, is to provide an independent, third party assessment. Besides, just who are these coin doctors? I imagine that they are primarily dealers and specialists.

    What does Don Willis know about Red Copper ?

    I assume that PCGS hires experts to perform their grading. If PCGS's experts can't detect coin doctoring after viewing thousands of coins, I know that I don't stand a chance. If I can't trust PCGS, who can I trust?

    I AM SAYING YOU SHOULD CONTINUE PURCHASING RED COPPER COINS

    After reviewing population data, I am concerned that an extremely high percentage of Red Copper may have been doctored. For now, I've decided to stop collecting Red Copper.

    Don't ever accuse me of doctoring red copper !

    Stewart, I apologize if I offended you. I just think that there is now a cloud over every Red Copper collection.
  • Actually there is NO cloud over every red copper even if one is not experienced/skilled to recognize original color. Look at the cert. Number of the holder. If it's from a set done more than a year ago, you're good to go. If the color looks funky after a year, it IS funky and will continue to change if it had been doctored. When I buy coins for resale I make sure that not only does the color look "right," the cert number is well over a year old. Now I use common sense. No one is going to doctor a coin with a retail value of $500 or less. Likewise, most RBs and BNs have not been doctored. Tough dates sometimes have been, and I won't buy these unless the cert number and present color show me it's okay. PCGS knows this as well, that's why I'm so furious about this change in color guarantee!


    Mark Feld: nice to see you back. I always welcome your thoughtful and well informed comments. In light of these recent comments about coin doctors, however, you might want to reconsider your choice of avatar for the forums image


    Just so you know, I own about 200 + red Lincolns and Indians, all in PCGS slabs and all in high grades. I DO have a dog in this fight.


    Ira Stein
    Dealer/Collector

    Dealer/old-time collector
  • The big problem with the guarantee change is not grandfathering coins graded before Dec 31 2009. That is where PCGS is wrong. They will say well they are still guaranteed if purchased before 12/31/09. But what good does that do? The values will drop a lot since whoever ends up buying these coins will have no guarantee so they will pay less. A coin is only worth what someone else will pay for it . Everyone who bought Red PCGS copper before this announcement did so with the understanding that they were guranteed and now that guarantee is gone.
  • PLEPLE Posts: 193 ✭✭
    Actually there is NO cloud over every red copper even if one is not experienced/skilled to recognize original color. Look at the cert. Number of the holder. If it's from a set done more than a year ago, you're good to go

    I don't see any benefit to purchasing Red Copper in older PCGS slabs. Just because a coin has been in a PCGS slab for more than a year, doesn't mean that it hasn't started to turn. In fact, because of the new rules, the coins that are "bad" will remain in their slabs, because it will be dangerous for anybody to send them in for re-grading. As a result, we will be seeing a lot more badly graded Red copper in older PCGS slabs.

    In my opinion, for Red Copper, the PCGS slab is now as valuable as a slab from SEGS.

  • But, I am concerned about my conversation with Don Willis. He told me two important things:

    1. Coin doctors have become so good, that his PCGS graders can no longer tell if the color of a coin was altered.

    2. Lincoln cents is the biggest problem area for doctored copper coins.

    So, Stewart, you specialize in Lincoln cents. Based upon Don Willis' comments, I now have questions about all RD collections, including mine and yours. How does anybody know whether the color of the coins in your collection were altered by a coin doctor/sculptor?


    PLE, you might well have asked Don Willis how many un-slabbed Lincoln Cents PCGS graded over the last four years, when “coin doctoring” became in vogue. From what others with far more experience have told me, the major problem is not coins turning because they have not been stored properly, but rather because they change color in the holder due to coin doctoring, after being graded as a “raw coin” by PCGS. Simply put, the greed and avarice displayed by PCGS over these last several years has brought this nightmare upon them, and like the financial services industry that needed TARP to save them, we are asked by PCGS to do the same for them. That is, save them from themselves. Wouldn’t logic have dictated at the time when they were grading all these raw coins, that maybe something was amiss, that it was not logical that so many raw low pop Lincolns could still be out there? Instead, they accepted the checks and graded as best they could and when faced with having to insure what they had done, decided to abandon the collecting community and washed their hands of the whole thing. Why wasn’t PCGS stricter in policing the coin submission process in the first place?
    Yes, I will still collect Red MPL’s, and would gladly accept Stewart’s offer to guarantee color on any Red coin he would sell me after 1/01/10. Certainly I would value his guarantee over anything PCGS would do. I also agree with Brian Wagner and will pay a premium for older holder coins that have survived the test of time.

    Jonathan Watkins


  • << <i>Actually there is NO cloud over every red copper even if one is not experienced/skilled to recognize original color. Look at the cert. Number of the holder. If it's from a set done more than a year ago, you're good to go

    I don't see any benefit to purchasing Red Copper in older PCGS slabs. Just because a coin has been in a PCGS slab for more than a year, doesn't mean that it hasn't started to turn. In fact, because of the new rules, the coins that are "bad" will remain in their slabs, because it will be dangerous for anybody to send them in for re-grading. As a result, we will be seeing a lot more badly graded Red copper in older PCGS slabs.

    In my opinion, for Red Copper, the PCGS slab is now as valuable as a slab from SEGS. >>

    I truly don't understand your arguments. If a copper coin which is designated "RD" has been encapsulated for a year or more and still appears to be "RD", according to many/most owners of such coins, chances are very good that it will remain so. And a "bad" copper coin would have almost always remained in its slab before the change in the PCGS guarantee, anyway, so why will we be seeing more of them now? Finally, to compare the PCGS "RD" copper and slab to that of SEGS appears to ignore the coins themselves. But, rather than debating the point further, I will leave it to the marketplace to show you that.

    Ira, thanks for your kind comment and the head's up about my avatar.image But I'm sure that coin doctoring was also going strong, several years ago when I selected it, and I'd hate to switch avatars now.image
  • LoveMyLibertyLoveMyLiberty Posts: 1,784 ✭✭✭
    Ira, I am very sorry to hear of your medical problems. Hope you recover soon with little
    discomfort.
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    R.I.P. Bear image
  • DCWDCW Posts: 6,935 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very good post, Brent. How could losing a guarantee ever be good for buyers or sellers? Bottom line is anyone still BUILDING a set of copper coins is now at risk in regards to color designation. Sure, if your set is COMPLETE like Mr. Blay's and you have no intention of selling, then this is "good for the hobby.". People can "educate" themselves, and we will all live happily ever after. This is not the case for someone who is in the MIDDLE of their set, buying the best red and red-brown examples they can on limited discretionary income. We can be "true collectors" all we want, but these coins cost real money and anytime you are shelling out $$ for a collectible, it's an investment as well. And when the grading company backs out of a written guarantee, I'm sorry to say it will most certainly have some impact.

    Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
    "Coin collecting for outcasts..."

  • SteveSteve Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭
    Here is a question I have been thinking about regarding the new PCGS policy about the color guarantee change for copper coins.

    How many of the people who have complained about the change in PCGS policy have actually EVER attempted to get money back from PCGS because of a problem that developed with a coin they owned?

    Of those, how many people actually received a payment from PCGS because of the guarantee?

    PCGS in their initial announcement identified the "big" payouts over the years. But how many collectors or dealers were involved in total?

    50?, 100?, 250?, 500", More than 1,000? And of those, how many payouts were for copper related problems?

    I REALLY don't know the answer to any of the above questions. I would really like to know what the facts are. I do think it is human nature to believe certain negative things will happen with the change in PCGS policy. These things may or may not occur. People have collected coins for many, many years BEFORE the advent of third pary slab grading and guarantees. Even MORE people have collected coins since the advent of third party slab grading. As long as we have normal inflationary factors present in our economy (and they have been there my entire lifetime) I believe people will continue to collect and slab copper coins in PCGS holders just as they have in the past. We should never assume we can buy a coin at a given price and 6 months or a year later sell that coin at a 10% or 25% profit. But, if we buy a coin because we love it and REALLY want it in our collection, AND are willing to wait a number of years before selling it, I believe that in most circumstances we will do well financially. JMHO. Steveimage
  • STEWARTBLAYNUMISSTEWARTBLAYNUMIS Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭

    Steve - The two examples of large payouts for red Copper mentioned by PCGS were :

    1900 ? Indian cent graded Proof 69 red - This coin was owned by a dealer and was graded in 1989. The fact that PCGS paid the dealer $50,000 for this coin was a BIG mistake IMHO. NO ONE would have paid 50K for this coin and the dealer certainly never paid anything remotely close to this amount .

    The infamous 1969 S DDO graded ms 65 red in 1989 that also had a finger print on the coin when it came to a Bowers and Merena auction in 1992. Everyone graded the coin ms 64 R/B and it brought
    $17,500. In 2004 Sam Lukes recommended that the collector who won the coin in 1992 submit the coin to PCGS under guaranteed submission. PCGS paid this collector $75,000 or $80,000 for the coin and then put it in the FUN 2005 auction where it only brought $36,000.

    Stewart
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