Is it a blood bath?

Weiss

When gold is still 40%+ up for the year and well above $1100--a high we only hit last month?

I'm in the "never going to sell them, regardless" camp. That's not to say I didn't like doing the math in my head of what they were "worth" last week or two weeks ago.

Didn't stop me from buying another 1/4 ounce last night. Might add another today

gsa1fan

I think it can rise just as fast. No need to get to excited - scared $ probably sending it down.

gecko109

My gold stash is up about $7,000 in just the past 8 months or so. Im like Weiss, I have no intention of ever selling, but I DO love to do "the math" from time to time.

fastrudy

Indeed! The chart is worrisome, but as soon as you do the math in your head, most of us realize that we have an incredibly big cushion in case of a fall. It has to go a looooong way down for me to go into the red.

secondrepublic

I wish it would go lower, so I could buy some more.

coynclecter

Indeed! The chart is worrisome, but as soon as you do the math in your head, most of us realize that we have an incredibly big cushion in case of a fall. It has to go a looooong way down for me to go into the red.


Yeah, when it goes under 450oz I will have to start taking loses.

RedHerring

When it falls below $700, I'm in trouble!

I've only been "in" gold for 2 1/2 years, so I still feel pretty good. The bloodbath won't get started until $1050. I'm not worried.

---------------------------------

The real kicker is this: This whole thing started Friday morning when the BLS said unemployment had dropped; fueling fears of an interest rate increase and strengthening the USD.

Next summer the Fed might raise rates to 0.5%! That should make for a STRONG USD!

57loaded

the ability to keep the dollar pumped up will only make the inevitable crash of the USD "faster, harder, deeper"

CaptHenway

Rally going on right now.

RedHerring

<< <i>Rally going on right now. >>



-----------------------------------

Wow! That was a quick $20 bounce!

Maybe China bought that 1,000 tons they wanted this morning!

renman95

If it goes to $450 or $700 as stated that means other assets are doing great to offset.

If it got that low ($450) maybe it means we are paying off our debt as a nation, we've rejected the onslaught of socialism, markets are becoming freer and our dollar and world standing is strong.

cladking

<< <i>I think it can rise just as fast. >>




...Well... ...there ya' go.

jmski52

If it goes to $450 or $700 as stated that means other assets are doing great to offset.

I am in the camp that if gold goes to $450 or $700, real estate is 33% of what it is now, soda is $0.30 per can, and gasoline is $1.05/gallon.

It also means that if you are still employed, you've endured pay cuts worth about 65% of your gross income in the past year.

They can transfer electronic credits all over the world until they wear out their keyboards, but that won't make people more secure or increase the amount of goods & services that their electronic credits can buy.

fastrudy

"faster, harder, deeper"

Popcorn guy is getting way too old for these words

OnlyGoldIsMoney

Thanks to cashback, ebay bucks and some fortunate bidding my average cost since March 2009 is $989 per ounce. As I see it I'm playing with house money until we get down to under $1,000. I'll stand pat and keep adding when the deals look good.

Bear

Mrs Bear has some throw

cushions on the couch.

Do they count?

SUMORADA

Ain't no fat lady singin yet.....................

mhammerman

Nope, no fat lady singing. There should be a few shake outs pulling off the weak hands after a moderate price rise. Gold broke down but it should hold 1200 +/- $50. There's been a lot of media and hyping and the three full page ads in the newspaper for anything metal running day after day is certainly sucking in a lot of public gold. It must be profitable because those ads cost thousands of dollars a page not to mention the hotel and the help.

There should be a lot of people grabbing for their scared money after this little dip. Net result is that the large interests are probably sucking up all the gold that the smaller fish such as cash 4 gold and the like don't get. This little dip should be their last opportunity to grab a chunk at a basement price. I noticed the mid miners were down today but that's no suprise. We still haven't seen what happens at the etfs when a bunch of holders ask for delivery, and the comex has been quiet too...kind of like Tonto said to the Lone Ranger "...it's quiet, maybe too quiet." Net result is that the pool of individual private, physical gold owners and the amount of gold they have is shrinking. Follow the herd and sell on the recent rise or act the contrarian and buy on the current dip or just continue on with accumulating your stash, bit by bit, like you were doing in the first place.

It's like George Carlin said during one of his routines about exercise...when asked why he doesn't exercise he replied "No pain...hey, no pain!" Buy what you can comfortably afford, do not bet on the come, do not make a play with money you can't spare, just relax and have a good time, take what you can and let the rest go by. This is not a good time to be playing in unfamiliar waters 'specially when you are the bait...woah!

Konahead

<< <i>My gold stash is up about $7,000 in just the past 8 months or so. Im like Weiss, I have no intention of ever selling, but I DO love to do "the math" from time to time. >>



I am with you guy, it is fun to watch. And the dips let me add to the mix.

Konahead

<< <i>If it goes to $450 or $700 as stated that means other assets are doing great to offset.

If it got that low ($450) maybe it means we are paying off our debt as a nation, we've rejected the onslaught of socialism, markets are becoming freer and our dollar and world standing is strong. >>




Yeah and maybe little green men live at the north pole.

MoneyLA

first of all, the gold chart is not worrisome. the gold chart looks great.

second of all, the gold chart is not worrisome. the gold chart looks great.

third of all, the gold chart is not worrisome. the gold chart looks great.

secondrepublic

every bull market has its internal ups and downs. this is one of them.

cohodk

<< <i>Indeed! The chart is worrisome, but as soon as you do the math in your head, most of us realize that we have an incredibly big cushion in case of a fall. It has to go a looooong way down for me to go into the red.
>>




The complacency surrounding the abilty to suffer loss has always intrigued me. It is an incredible psychological phenomona.

CaptHenway

FWIW, I just had a $515,000 gold sale to a trader who likes gold better than paper......

RedHerring

The Fed has plans in place to continue 0% interest rates throughout 2010 and likely well into 2011. The scare from Friday's jobs report will soon be replaced with the reality that the U.S. Gov't will be dumping $4 trillion in unfunded debt into our money supply next year.

We could see $1050 before the buying resumes in earnest. Nothing to fear but fear itself.

---------------------------

U.S. Congress looked in the mirror this morning and met the enemy.

secondrepublic

<< <i>FWIW, I just had a $515,000 gold sale to a trader who likes gold better than paper...... >>



FWIW -- slightly smaller transaction -- I just bought another $5 gold Indian at your store (1914-D) couple of hours ago. Love it !

roadrunner

The complacency are the sheeple who have been willingly taking the depreciation hits the past 10 years as paper/currencies swoon. It was a good 30 year run while it lasted though. Paper money can always go to zero....and eventually does. Hard money (gold/silver) can never go to zero as 5,000 years of history has shown.

It is a bloodbath, but in paper assets and debt with no backing whatsover other than one's faith in their elected officials. You can only roll over and reprice the same debt so many times before the music stops and the piper asks to be paid.

roadrunner

cohodk

Roadrunner, you know what I mean.

Look at the stock market bulls. For 10 years they havent made a penny and are complacent about it. Gold bulls were the same way. So will be the real estate bulls. It really is a fascinating subject.


Heck, I get all squirrelly when my account drops 2-3%. My approach is better to not make than to lose. No one ever went broke by not making an investment, but many have by doing.

roadrunner

You certainly can go broke by not making an "investment." Imagine someone placing their money in a mattress back in 1958 as their "investment" using a methodology left over from the 1930's. In order to survive or prosper over the past 50 years one has had to speculate. If one doesn't go out and speculate (ie invest) in something other than dollars (or a bank account) they are likely to lose all that they have. This is not how the system worked 100 yrs ago where one could save something every year, get 5% interest in the bank, and eventually retire on your savings put away systematically over a career of 40 years. For our own survival we've been conditioned/trained to follow the bouncing bubble to try and stay above water whether it was houses, stocks, bonds, art, gold, etc. This is the psychology that fascinates me. We are forced to speculate for our own survival. The smartest of the speculators (or those who rig the markets) end up winning. This is why us sheeple still invest in things we probably shouldn't even after they've run up a ways. Psychology tells us to speculate or die.

roadrunner

cohodk

." Imagine someone placing their money in a mattress back in 1958 as their "investment

I wouldnt classify that as an investment. I call that stupidity. And stupid people get what they deserve, which leads to this "This is why us sheeple still invest in things we probably shouldn't even after they've run up a ways"

It is just unfathomable to me how someone can say they arent worried about a drop from 10 to 5, cuz they own it at 3. They say its just a "paper" loss. That always cracks me up. We have become so ignorant of deflation, that we dont even recognize it when it happens.

jmski52

You certainly can go broke by not making an "investment."

The "investment" that I have chosen not to make at this time is in "dollars" whether it is stocks, bonds, currency or tax credits.

They say its just a "paper" loss........We have become so ignorant of deflation, that we dont even recognize it when it happens.


It's not a loss at all unless the current value is less than the cost basis.

Secondly, how do you even know if there is deflation going on? There are more off-the-books losses being pumped up with newly-created "money" to the extent that none of it is even measurable in any sort of honest accounting. Indeed, the accounting standards have been thrown out the window too.

So, whether it's deflation or inflation - I'd rather have something that I can put my grubby little mits on than a bunch of nebulous government and private banking promises (and we do know what THOSE are worth, don't we?)

SUMORADA

It's a little Blip..........on a Big Screen....so don't throw the TV out!

cohodk

It's not a loss at all unless the current value is less than the cost basis

Really??

To me the cost basis is irrelevant. If I own something that today is worth $10, but tomorrow is $9, I have lost $1, no matter whether I paid 2c or $200. The value is less than it was yesterday.


You're misreading me. Im not saying there is deflation, but I am saying that something dropping in value from 10 to 9 is deflation, yet no one recognizes it. Thats all im saying.


And I do agree with the rest of what you wrote.

cohodk

For our own survival we've been conditioned/trained to follow the bouncing bubble to try and stay above water whether it was houses, stocks, bonds, art, gold, etc. This is the psychology that fascinates me


Roadrunner, this fascinates me as well.

I think you will find it much more constructive to not follow the bouncing bubble. Instead, look to where there is no bubble at all. IE, stocks in the 70's and gold in the 90's. Perhaps next will be the dollar in the teens?

roadrunner

It's the mentality of being "afraid" to see something drop from 10 to 9 just after I bought that spooked me out of the majority of the last major rise in gold stocks. I was afraid to lose money, so after timing the bottom right, I hopped right out after making peanuts......missing the next 30-40%. The "good" thing was I didn't lose 10%. But if you expect to make anything sizeable in this gold market, one better be prepared to "lose" 10% on their positions...esp. their core positions. Because once you sell it all for peanuts....you most likely won't be coming back. That would be like selling out of silver in the 1970's at $5 in early 1979 because it was so high.....and then missing the final 5X to 10X increase. Do you think anyone who sold all their physical for $5 then jumped back in at $10? Very few imo.

I wouldnt classify that as an investment. I call that stupidity. And stupid people get what they deserve, which leads to this "This is why us sheeple still invest in things we probably shouldn't even after they've run up a ways"

In the 1800's, when inflation was nearly non-existant (other than wars) that was how people invested and saved. The system worked assuming you weren't robbed or the bank walked away with your dough/gold. Today that system would be stupid because of the Keynesian Klap-Trap inflationary economic model we now follow. So now rather than be stupid by putting one's money in a mattress, the sheeple have to be stupid by investing in things like Fannie, Freddie, Citi, and GM to have a shot of avoiding depreciating currencies. The other 2 options are playing the Lottery or visiting a casino. Joe Six Pack's long term chances of winning in any of the above 4 systems is not good.

roadrunner

CaptHenway

<< <i>

<< <i>FWIW, I just had a $515,000 gold sale to a trader who likes gold better than paper...... >>



FWIW -- slightly smaller transaction -- I just bought another $5 gold Indian at your store (1914-D) couple of hours ago. Love it ! >>



Thank you! That is a nice coin, isn't it?
TD

jmski52

<<It's not a loss at all unless the current value is less than the cost basis>>

Really??

To me the cost basis is irrelevant. If I own something that today is worth $10, but tomorrow is $9, I have lost $1, no matter whether I paid 2c or $200. The value is less than it was yesterday.

Let me try this again. Yes, really. If you pay $1.00 and it goes to $10.00, you have an unrealized gain of $9.00. If it then drops to $9.00, you now only have an unrealized gain of $8.00. It's not a profit or a loss until you liquidate it.

You're misreading me. Im not saying there is deflation, but I am saying that something dropping in value from 10 to 9 is deflation, yet no one recognizes it. Thats all im saying.

I'm not misreading you. But I'm also trying to point out that no one really knows whether there has been more wealth destruction from bad real estate paper than there has been new money creation both on the books and off the books.

It's almost as if we only get to "see" about 0.01% of the total economy. It seems that their machinations in government and central bank finance render one's own personal finance and savings to be insignificant. Your finances will only amount to what they want it to be, regardless of how smart you are, how hard you work and how hard you try.

Gold seems to be a way to "opt out", at least until they focus on it.

mhammerman

"Thank you! That is a nice coin, isn't it?"

Photo, maybe? Any $5 with a mm is nice to have but the whole series is nice anyway. A nice, short, historic, distinctive series. That stopper is a bear, though. Glad to see some interest in these.

Here's the first one

secondrepublic

<< <i> Thank you! That is a nice coin, isn't it? TD >>



I think it's great. I've always loved the design on these. In AU I think they're still at a pretty nice price considering scarcity. Most of this series has low mintages - this one is only 247,000 minted.

Here's a picture from the HB website. If I have time later I'll take some photos of my own and post them.

PerryHall

<< <i>Any $5 with a mm is nice to have but the whole series is nice anyway. >>



Actually, the 1909-D is the most common date within this series.

secondrepublic

<< <i>

<< <i>Any $5 with a mm is nice to have but the whole series is nice anyway. >>



Actually, the 1909-D is the most common date within this series. >>



Looks like the 1909-D is the highest mintage by far but the other D mints are all pretty low. The mint marks on these coins are unusual and sort of undefined.

It's an interesting series. I added up all the mintages for the entire $5 Indian series and it's just over 14 million coins. That's obviously not counting the ones that were melted in the 30s.

fastrudy

Really??
To me the cost basis is irrelevant

Cohodk,
You are a nice guy and I have had good dealings with you.
You call my complacency in taking a loss astounding.
Then you come out with this statement.
At least when I take a loss, or make a profit, I KNOW HOW TO COMPUTE IT!
Nobody loses or profits until the item is liquidated. Nobody takes a loss in making a profit.
If you get all antsy about a 2-3% loss that is not even realized, then you got something wrong inside your head, since it is not even real.

I still like most of what you say, just don't call the popcorn guy complacent!

PerryHall

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Any $5 with a mm is nice to have but the whole series is nice anyway. >>



Actually, the 1909-D is the most common date within this series. >>



Looks like the 1909-D is the highest mintage by far but the other D mints are all pretty low. The mint marks on these coins are unusual and sort of undefined.

It's an interesting series. I added up all the mintages for the entire $5 Indian series and it's just over 14 million coins. That's obviously not counting the ones that were melted in the 30s. >>



The mintmark is the only feature that is raised above the field on these coins since the mint marks were punched into the completed dies. Since there is no raised rim on these coins, the mintmarks have no protection from wear and they get flattened pretty quickly.

secondrepublic

<< <i> Actually, the 1911-S has the highest mintage but a fairly low survival rate. The mintmark is the only feature that is raised above the field on these coins since the mint marks were punched into the completed dies. Since there is no raised rim on these coins, the mintmarks have no protection from wear and they get flattened pretty quickly. >>



Iisn't the 1909-D the highest mintage with 3,423,560? The 1911-S only has a mintage of 1,416,000. Link. That's obviously not counting the ones that were melted.

The explanation for the mint mark getting flattened makes sense. But what does it look like on really high grade MS examples - is it more raised?

PerryHall

<< <i>Iisn't the 1909-D the highest mintage with 3,423,560? The 1911-S only has a mintage of 1,416,000. >>



You're right, of course. I'll change my post.

CaptHenway

<< <i>

<< <i>FWIW, I just had a $515,000 gold sale to a trader who likes gold better than paper...... >>



FWIW -- slightly smaller transaction -- I just bought another $5 gold Indian at your store (1914-D) couple of hours ago. Love it ! >>



Take a look at the MS-61 and MS-63 we just posted. If you want to upgrade, will give you full credit back for the AU.
TD

CaptHenway

Saw an analysis that said that one of the major gold ETF's sold down 13 tonnes, or roughly 1%.
Profit taking, or people getting out of paper gold so they can get into REAL gold???
TD

secondrepublic

<< <i>

Take a look at the MS-61 and MS-63 we just posted. If you want to upgrade, will give you full credit back for the AU.
TD >>



Very nice.... it's tempting...

cohodk

<< <i>Really??
To me the cost basis is irrelevant

Cohodk,
You are a nice guy and I have had good dealings with you.
You call my complacency in taking a loss astounding.
Then you come out with this statement.
At least when I take a loss, or make a profit, I KNOW HOW TO COMPUTE IT!
Nobody loses or profits until the item is liquidated. Nobody takes a loss in making a profit.
If you get all antsy about a 2-3% loss that is not even realized, then you got something wrong inside your head, since it is not even real.

I still like most of what you say, just don't call the popcorn guy complacent! >>




Fastrudy,

Perhaps the word complacent is too strong. But I am still amazed that people think a "paper" loss is just paper. Compute the value of your gold holding today vs yesterday. If the number is smaller then you have a loss, if greater, then a gain. I might have somethings wrong in my head, but just because I do not think mainstream doesnt not make me an idiot.

I believe people are ok with a "paper" loss, because they firmly believe the value of their assets will recover. Sometimes they do, sometimes not. If I owned 1000 shares of Enron at $100 per share and it went to a penny and I never sold, did I not lose $99,999? Suppose the banks never wrotedown the value of their mortgages holdings. They would still have high capital ratios, be solvent, and we wouldnt be in this mess. Did they need to writedown to recognize the loss?

I guess we will probably have to maintain differing opinions on this as I will never be convinced that the only way one has a loss is to close the position.