Some of the juniors may be excellent buys because after years of losses the current quarter may show a profits not yet reflected in the stock price.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Nibbled on some AUY, GSS, and UXG today....3 of the more beaten down miners. Also have my sights set on some AZK after its near 10% whallop today. A lot of the juniors in GDXJ have been holding up pretty well...better than GDX. Some others looking ripe in GDXJ are MFN, FRG, European Goldfields, and CDE.
Trying to pick up some BVN but was too late before it bounced. BVN seems to be the only major or intermediate that may be at bottom already. It's the only major/intermediate I can find that through today had decreasing volume and bands contracting (everyone else has either rising volume w/falling prices and/or expanding bands. In recent times BVN has seemed to rebound before the rest of the miners, possibly because it is multi-faceted in gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. It's already off about 23% from its peak. Will BVN be the major/intermediate to show the way out again?
Nibbled on some BVN today. With quadruple witching gone maybe next week will calm down the gold sector. Another week of bond auctions to boot on top of a light pre-Christmas trading week. The PPT should be able to push the market around wherever they need it to be. Today the dollar briefly reached above the 78 range which was support back in September. This time it was resistance and sent the dollar back.
COT report for 12/18/09
The dollar futures continue to be the story. In one week the short to long commercial ratio increased from 2.4 to 6.0 with OI now at a hefty 51K. The only time in recent memory it was larger was during the several weeks of heavy deleveraging in Sept/Oct. 2008. For every long the non-commercials toss on, the banks have added a short. This is eerily similar to the action in August to September 2008 when the dollar was rising and the S/L comm. ratio quickly got up into the 6-8 range. Following each rise to that area the dollar tumbled but twice recovered.
This same high ratio was also seen back in February 2009. Then in early March the multi-month dollar move finally succumbed and the SM rally took over. Warning: in both those previous cases the dollar spent several weeks at those high ratio's before finally dropping. In Jan-Feb the successive weekly ratios were 3.2/3.67/6.05/6.40/8.13/5.42/4.6....so we could be here a while longer before the dollar suffers another correction.
Gold futures changed slightly with the commercials adding 290 longs and 4900 shorts to raise the ratio to 4.47. Silver was just the opposite with the selling of 3500 shorts and adding 411 longs (more bullish). Open Interest largely unchanged on both.
The gold futures OI has been in the 490-530K range since mid-Oct peaking around 11/4 to 11/11 at 533K. The link above should give you abbreviated reports for each week of 2009. Goldseek puts this out every week which is a bit easier than digging through the cftc.gov site for the COT reports by trading exchange. And at the bottom of the page is the rest of the year's archived data.
Here's QuadG's (from Kitco-forums) most recent synopsis of the past week's action in gold. Of all the "amateur" chart analysts on Kitco-forums and Goldismoney.info he seems to put together the best overall package and certainly equal to any of the pros that charge for their service. I find his overall mixture of EW analysis with other fundamentals to be quite informative. He never rules out the best and worst cases until TA declares them obsolete. Note that he is still not ruling out the return trip to $680 just yet. The current juncture for gold and the dollar is critical so I copied his view in its entirety.
First, USD ended it's 5th wave down as expected and is now in a substantial rally. The wave attitude of this wave is crucial to MT and long term outcomes. I have mentioned that if 76.8 was breached that more upside is likely, and a test of 80 is possible. I wish I was around to point out the text book perfect bull triangle last friday. That was the sign that 1116 (9%)was not going to hold as support. Right now USD has a 38.2% fibo retrace level at approx 79.50 and the center of the previous wave 3 and 4 triangle is approx 80. These targets are very possible in the next couple short weeks. There is some minor trendline resistance in the 78 area, which could slow the advance some.
But the critical piece is wave attitude, how USD gets to 79-80 is very important. A 3 wave advance to this area would be a very good sign of continued long term USD errosion as it would likely be counted as a MT corrective wave up of a larger trend down.
However, if a 5 wave impulse up to 79-80 is realized instead, then this would be a big clue of a larger deflationary trend. If 80 serves as pivot, a breach of that level would have little problem moving up to 86 or better. All assets would likely decline substantially with gold falling the least in percentage terms, as the safe haven aspect of gold's nature hinders it's descent.
You have heard of 'sell in May and go away'. But I will coin a new phrase 'sell in December, as gold falls like timber' Gold's correction from 1227 to 1095 is very concerning. Approx 11% pull back is beyond the norm. The Dec. 05 was about 9% the Dec. 07 was about 8%.
A 10-12% intial fall at this time could be a precursor to a major correction, instead of a MT correction of a continuing uptrend. I'm not ready to write off 1300 in January, but the probabiltiy has been reduced. 1070 is still a key level for maintaining further MT advances. If it fails then a complete back test of the 1032 breakout comes into focus.
Some of you remember my 'thick black line'. A breach of which was the key determinant suggesting that gold was much more likely to make a new high before a lower-low under 680. That proved to be true.
Now I have a new line in the sand the 'thick Red line' which is the trendline from 680 in Oct '08 to 930 in Aug '09. Gold must stay above this line to keep the probability of another higher-high positive. If this line is broken, then the probabilities of a new low below 680 become more likely than a new all time high. Currently that line is below the current price at 1028 (if I remember correctly). I'll have more in a gold chart later.
My chart of the thick RED line today puts it at $1045. In a couple of weeks it would be closer to the $1071 peak of the initial break-away peak. Fwiw when gold corrected from $1007 in Feb to $863 in April, that was a 14.3% drop. Dec 05 and Dec 07 didn't get as heated as this last month did for gold so a larger pullback would seem to be called for. The pull back so far is closely mirroring the Feb-April 2009 correction. If that holds true there is another month left before the first bottom is reached. And that would equate to approx $1051. However a sizeable bounce should occur inbetween.
I've not been posting much because I've been pretty much completely out the last few days while I wait for gold to "bottom out." This certainly is a
The stock market appears to have begun its ascent, at least to 1160. I thought it might take gold with it but that doesn't appear to be the case. They are no longer coupled.
Looking at the chart below, the bottom edge of the channel is about 1095, but my error in drawing the channel is probably +/-5 at least. Ackerman is still calling for an entry point at 1090-1092, and I think we might get it. For this reason, I'm pretty much just going to sit out but if/when 1092 arrives, I will go all in with a 100% position.
Regardless of the macro-trend, I still think gold will try to at least touch 1190 again, so this would be a nice $100 move to take advantage of. I think any targets like 670 are laughable and illogical - I'd be my mortgage we'll see $2000 gold before $670.
I nibbled on some more BVN crap at 31.44. Now down 27% from the peak and <10% above the 200 dma. RSI now at 29. Also picked up some Aurizon (AZK) at 4.32.
I am concerned that he states the dollar could go higher. Doesn't he know the dollar is headed to oblivion?
I'm sure he knows that on the order of years the dollar is headed into oblivion. And as Keynes said....in the end we're all dead....including our fiat currencies.
Dollar rallying, gold at $1090. A real pro might keep shorting gold, but I'm going to stick with just two contracts - for now.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Is this what you guys are worried about? From Clive Maunde:
Big overseas Treasury holders such China and Japan are believed to have “strong-armed” the US in the recent past behind the scenes and essentially said “You either quit undermining your currency and defrauding us with your zero interest rate policy or we are going to dump them, big time, and collapse the Treasury market.” The Treasury market is the “aorta” of the US, which involves swapping essentially worthless paper for the goods and services of countries that are dumb enough to buy them, thus allowing the US to live way beyond its means running continuous massive deficits. It is viewed by the administration as infinitely more important than the stockmarket, which is small in comparison. It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. The rising Treasury yield curve, which has recently become very steep is indicating that rate rises are in the pipeline. Smart Money has already got wind of this and has been stampeding to close out US dollar carry trade positions, hence the breakout and sharp rise in the dollar, and the plunge in gold. The ordinary Joe sat rustling his newspaper hasn’t got the faintest idea of what is going on as usual. Given the magnitude of the US dollar carry trade positions that have built up this year on the back of unprecedented negative real interest rates in the US it should be obvious that a intensifying stampede out of them could easily drive a massive dollar spike, perhaps considerably larger than the one we saw last year, especially given the precarious condition of many countries in the European Union. In this situation commodities and the stockmarket will be trashed.
A little thing like this bothers you? Like I said, I really wouldn't want to be in long bonds about right now, and it looks like I really wouldn't want to be in stocks now either.
Looks like another whipsaw for retirees - the rising rates will look like an oasis for money fleeing the stock market, right before the hammer comes down.
cohodk, is this the 1 to 1 1/2 year time horizon that you are looking at?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
In name only. The dollar will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the US dollar but like FDR's 1934 USD, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation, competing IMF SDR's with the dollar as part of a new currency/commodity basket, gold linkage, etc.
PC, you got your $1090 bounce...and basically a touch of Sinclair's $1089 "angel." The last angel was at $1156.
A nice bump in lower maturity interest rates would be just what the doctor ordered for next week's 2/5/7 yr bond auction trifecta. I had previously erred in stating they were this week. It seems even "monetizing" takes a week off for the holidays.
Out of 1/2 at 26.45. If gold wasnt already down 10% in last few weeks I would say the bottom is about to drop out of it. The dollar wants that 200dma at 79+.
jmski52, I think gold will be in this same general area 18 months from now.
<< <i> We'll all be long dead before the dollar is.
In name only. The dollar will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the US dollar but like FDR's 1934 USD, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation, competing IMF SDR's with the dollar as part of a new currency/commodity basket, gold linkage, etc.
PC, you got your $1090 bounce...and basically a touch of Sinclair's $1089 "angel." The last angel was at $1156.
roadrunner >>
Roadrunner, forgive me if I take the liberty of changing just a few words.....The EURO will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the EURO but like Hitlers 1934 Mark, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation,
The USDX makeup maybe changed, with the EURO comprising a much small percentage.
<< <i>It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. >>
I don't know that this is what's going to happen. Raising interest rates with the economy such that it is isn't going to fly - not on the political side. Neither the president or congress will let that happen if they have any say. They'll kill the dollar first... that's the only politically "safe" thing to do since they can blame a falling dollar on everyone but themselves. The Wall Street powers-that-be who have the politicians in their pockets will not support an interest rate hike either.
The bottom line: The US is between a rock and a hard place. Raise interest rates and kill Wall Street and extend the depression and high unemployment or keep rates low and kill the dollar. They'll kill the dollar every time. After all, they can just print more.
On the other hand, the unwinding of the dollar carry trade does make a reasonable explanation for the recent dollar spike. My only question is how big is the dollar carry trade, how much remains to be unwound, etc.
<< It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. >>
Raising rates may "drop" the stock market and "raise" the bond market but it will totally destroy whats left of the housing market. With all the ARMs out there the rates HAVE to stay real low. If they raise rates they kill construction, skyrocket foreclosures, kill employment and kill the joke of a banking sector. JMHO
<< <i>jmski52, I think gold will be in this same general area 18 months from now.
You think the dollar will be stable for that long? Hmmm.........I guess that gives me time to set up an account for some minors. >>
Yes, I think the dollar will be stable to even higher over the next year(s). All this talk of dollar death and poor monetary and fiscal policy has failed to take the dollar below the 2008 lows, in fact, it has bottomed 5% higher than in 2008. My long term momo indicator is at a level that has marked major bottoms over the past 25 years. Bearish sentiment was off the charts--always a sign of a turning point. This doesnt look like the performance one would expect from something headed to oblivion.
I might be even so bold, some might read as "crazy", to say the dollar index could be in the high 90s in the next 2-3 years.
Bought at 1092 yesterday which looked like a good buy at first but has turned into a losing position. I closed some of the position at 1085, and I plan to exit the rest in the 1090's if there is any kind of a bounce. I think there could be more downside to come. At the moment, today's low looks like it could be around 1073, so that's a decent entry with a tight stop. Failing that, there should be pretty solid support at 1066.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
I did a lot of reading today so I'm going to post some links here.
The consensus from the web appears to be that gold is at or near a bottom here at 1075 or it may continue to 1000-1020. I don't think we'll see 1020. But I didn't think we'd go below 1100 either, so WTFDIK. The foray down to support level ~1074 was quick and gold recovered quickly, which is a good sign, at least for the near term. Of course, this trading near the holidays is tough because the market action is much different.
This article refers back to my post where the Fed is between a rock and a hard place - raise interest rates vs. kill the dollar.
This article says gold will trade in the $1000-1100 band for the next 6 months.... I don't agree.
This article is a good discussion of currencies vs. gold. Overall it's gold bullish but had these interesting quotes:
The strong rally in the dollar is indicating that at the very least gold will test the 990-1000 ranges before stabilising. If it fails to hold here, it could be an early indication of an even stronger pull back.
The unwinding of positions due to the dollar carryover trade could lead to a much stronger rally than most expect. Remember what happened to the New Zealand dollar a few years ago. Everyone was borrowing Yen to go long the New Zealand dollar. The Kiwi collapsed and the Yen soared. If something like that should come to pass now, it would result in a very strong pull back in the commodities sector.
This article was a great TA summary of all of the metals. One point is that the RSI remains bullish (above 40) on all metals. He predicted today's move to $1075.
And here's a VERY INTERESTING quote: Dave Rosenberg wrote this week; "We are not sure if this is a well known "fact", but the U.S. government has a record $2.5 trillion of its debt, including bills, bonds and notes, rolling over in 2010. That, my friends, is 35% of the outstanding level of Uncle Sam’s marketable obligations having to be refinanced in one single year. "
This reflects the shift of US treasury financing to short term stuff. What happens if rates increase on $2.5T?
Recently China’s State Administrator of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed the dollars anchor status among currency reserves they manage. Do you believe them? They also said that the US dollars continued fall is “inevitable” since Washington continues to issue treasuries to finance deficit spending.
This short article said: "Gold prices have fallen down to a level where you might start to revive investment demand. There's a lot of reallocation going on.
Another article discussing the possibility of a pullback to $1000: With the EUR/USD breaking through an important support level at 1.4483 and the Dollar index showing signs of a short-term reversal in trend as it breaks the 77 level, it is likely that the dollar may continue to gain strength while gold retreats and consolidates again.
A good silver article talks about how silver will outperform gold and looks good: Driven by demand from auto sector for silver-zinc batteries which are used in ‘smart automobiles’ and an array of portable electronic devices, the silver’s shining story will continue in the coming year also.
This one expects at least a temporary reversal of trends in USD & Gold: My point is that now there is talk of another melt down in gold and equities similar to the last time the dollar bolted higher. I don't expect the same outcome. I am not saying there won't be pull backs, just not a wipe out like last year.
I guess we'll bottom soon in the $1020-$1040 range.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
A 38% retracement of the gold upmove from Nov 08 projects to about 1010 so I dont think $1000 should be unexpected.
A 38% retracement of the dollar downmove from March projects to about 80.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area.
Just targets that one needs to keep in mind.
Edited to comment on a few links.
Bevan's TA is faulty. He draws a trendline from the Aug low, yet uses a Fibonacci retracement from the Sept consolidation, thus giving false readings. RSI is now under 40--at 37.5--so now what? Silver RSI at 38.8. A lot of what he says is pure conjecture such as, " Slow STO is very low and bidding it’s time before showing us a massive move higher early in the new year." He may be right about a massive move, but it could just as easily be from 12.50 back to 16.50. I just think he is trying to play his bullish emotions into the charts. Its best to stay neutral.
I also agree to great extent with Sol Palha. You will see many of his comments echo those that I have written in the last week and before. Is he watching me? LOL
The Mindweb piece basically says what I did 2 months ago. Obviously agree, but feel the consolidation could be even longer.
Lots 'o links PC, thanks for doing all that legwork.
The YuYangers were a week late in their gold top call so maybe they'll be a week early on their bottom call. Their buy zone is from Dec 26-30th...next week. So that's their posted bottom. But looking at their annual chart they show a brief bump up and then further downside in the 2nd half of January. Almost makes you wonder why bother buying? The YY's are now charging $550 per yr to see their charts in real time. Hopefully they will still show them at some point.....better late than never.
Next week is options expiration for gold, end of year closeouts, etc. as well as 3 more bond auctions. It would be a fitting spot for gold to hit bottom or conduct a retest of the bottom. It's certainly overdue for a bounce to retrace a portion of this $150 drop.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area.
That would be true if the run from November 2008 is complete. We still don't even know if the entire past 21 months was purely corrective. And if a new bull leg commenced in the past year, when was the start of it? Was it Nov 2008 or possibly August 2009? I tend to lean towards August 2009 being either the start of a whole new bull run upwards (following a 17 month correction) or the start of a 2nd up leg counting back from November 2008. Either way, there is at least another up leg, possibly 2, due in the sequence before it ends. The 2005 and 2007 moves began like the 2009 move but neither of those had blowoffs in November/December. That's not to say that the current move cannot still follow that 2 year pattern after a much sharper correction and run into March-May as they did. Those 2 earlier runs were in a much less volatile time period when the gold market was better managed. So is it a great surprise that 2 years later we are seeing much more volatility in the intermediate legs? (ie the up channel was broken out of before the 5 wave pattern was completed).
When so many hedge funds are involved in a market it can be useful to ask the question: "Where are the stops?" Meaning the stop-loss orders. Max pain for market participants would be to run a lot of the stops and only after that start a painful rally after a lot of the funds using computerized technical models have reversed to the short side. This would also be a likely scenario if the market is manipulated by insiders, because it means max pain for everyone except the key-card-holders manipulating the market. Again, I will never argue about whether manipulation is occurring is not. Let price, volume and time tell the tale of the tape.
Just a thought, but a useful one in a volatile market.
And if a new bull leg commenced in the past year, when was the start of it? Was it Nov 2008 or possibly August 2009?
Agreed. If we use Aug then today was a 50% retrace. But more usual retraces in an intermediate trend are 62% which would project to the $1025 area. This would also mark point #3 on a trendline from the Nov 08 low. Bouncing from there could indicate the run is still intact. This would be a 16% correction from the high which is inline with the corrections in Feb/Mar 09 and Mar/Apr 08 which both followed substantial rallies.
I dont agree that the market were "more managed" or "less volatile" however. If you look at the percentage moves you will see they are quite similar. Just the numbers are bigger.
RedTiger,
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation.
I could see a 62% intermediate correction which would take gold back to around $1045-$1050 (overall 15% correction). This would be the same point where the neckline currently is going all the way back to the 2008 high. A retest of that would satisfy that requirement. And necklines of previous breakouts are often good bounce points for the next leg up. There's still unfinished business with the $1300+ original projection of the breakout.
The Nov/Dec 2005 & 2007 corrections were only 9-10% but they didn't get as overheated as the current run did.
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation. >>
You have a good point. The big hedge funds might be playing "chess" when I am still thinking in terms of the rules of "checkers." Complex derivative strategies are likely more common than old fashioned stop loss orders. However, as option experts will always say, there is no fool proof hedge. Every hedge has some kind of cost, and there will be times where the hedge can become a liability or near worthless.
With all that, if I was looking for where the stops might be, I'd guess there are a lot of stops just under $1000. So a hard break below $1000 might trigger some intermediate term stops. The bad news is that a break below $1000 support would do some technical damage to the bullish chart case. Ah well, as with hedges, the chart isn't fool proof either.
<< <i>A 38% retracement of the gold upmove from Nov 08 projects to about 1010 so I dont think $1000 should be unexpected.
A 38% retracement of the dollar downmove from March projects to about 80.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area. >>
Good things to keep in mind, but it all depends on where you measure. Tuesday's move is 38.2% retracement for the movement that started 4-6-09.
I am still looking for an exit point as I think I'll get a better entrance point, was hoping to get out North of 1090 but I might have to eat a small loss. I'm looking to buy in at 1066, which if you look at the charts is a VERY natural and solid support level... really about the highest support level we have as the other support levels are and have been pretty weak. Below that is 1020.
The Nov/Dec 2005 & 2007 corrections were only 9-10% but they didn't get as overheated as the current run did.
Im not talking about December and dont know what relevance that has other than it is now December. You shouldnt expect the same pattern to occur every year. That never happens. Im talking about the major runs in 05/06 and 07/08 and comparing to this run which I think is more appropriate. Continuing to look for $1300 as an H&S breakout will frustrate you as this, IMO, is not a classic H&S pattern. Gold was just as overheated 3 weeks ago as it was at previous peaks.
I've written before that I read somewhere that commodities like silver tend to lag gold by about 4 months. That 4 month point is right about now
I cant find anything in the charts that supports that view. Newsletter writers are grasping at straws. What may be more accurate is that interest rates lag gold, or gold leads interest rates, by about 6 months.
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation. >>
You have a good point. The big hedge funds might be playing "chess" when I am still thinking in terms of the rules of "checkers." Complex derivative strategies are likely more common than old fashioned stop loss orders. However, as option experts will always say, there is no fool proof hedge. Every hedge has some kind of cost, and there will be times where the hedge can become a liability or near worthless.
With all that, if I was looking for where the stops might be, I'd guess there are a lot of stops just under $1000. So a hard break below $1000 might trigger some intermediate term stops. The bad news is that a break below $1000 support would do some technical damage to the bullish chart case. Ah well, as with hedges, the chart isn't fool proof either. >>
Yes, every hedge has a cost, which is the premium paid. This will also cut into return. The worse case scenerio is a hedged asset that doesnt move. After time the cost to protect the position can wipe out a majority of the gain or even result in a loss. Thats why traders, especially momo guys like to play things that are moving which usually results in overshoots.
Agreed that there probably are a lot of stops just under $1000, so a dip under would not be surprising. Gold could drop to $800 and the secondary uptrend is still intact. Off the 2006 high gold dropped 25%, in 2008, I will use $750 as a bottom since there were some extraordinary circumstances surrounding the drop to $681, but this is still a 26% drop. A 26% drop from this high projects to about $900.
Now this would still put gold in an uptrend, but down $300 from its high. Can anyone understand my complacency comment now? Notice the widening trend lines. To me this means an extended period of sideways movement.
The relevance is that the same seasonality patterns/runs occurred in 2005-2006, 2007-2008, and so far 2009-2010. Those first 2 runs took substantial breathers following the 3rd legs up in Nov/December midway in the climb to their peaks the following year. This current December breather is right on time. Until the pattern is broken, the 3rd time is a charm. I'm not convinced this current move was an ending "peak" similar to the May 2006 & March 2008 tops. It may simply be just the mid-point in the current August-Spring run. Those 2 previous December pullbacks stayed within the rising channel and were not nearly as overbought. This current one broke considerably above the channel in the final weeks. I'm not fixated on the IH&S formation and have previously posted on several occasions that it doesn't technically qualify. Rather, gold had a strong breakout from 3 multiple cup and handle formations the longest going back to 1980. A retest of the $1050 neckline area should not be unexpected.
Nice to see a number of the gold miners curl upwards from the slow stochastic 20 line even if this week will low trading volumes. A good number of the juniors have not seen a heck of lot of this current correction with some of them actually gaining the past 2 weeks. Eldorado was the least affected of the majors/intermediates, I think because it had a stellar 3rd Qtr earnings report. It's odd that a significant number of the mid to large cap junior gold miners are behaving as if this is a minor pullback, not the end of a 13 month run....soon to be followed by months of declines. Can't yet rule out that the SM lingering near yearly highs is keeping those other miners out of the frying pan.
Look at the chart I posted above, although somewhat tought o see as data is compressed.
In Decembers....
2001....gold flat 2002....gold up 2003....gold up 2004....gold down 2005....gold up then down 2006....gold down then up 2007....gold flat 2008....gold up 2009....gold down....
There is no pattern. My buddy--a long time B&M dealer now working with a large wholesaler-- just told me that gold is following the cycle of the full moon. I nearly drowned on my coffee. I mentioned to him the coinicidence of the Australia interest rate hikes to the full moon cycle and he didnt want to hear it. Amazing how intelligent people can allow emotions to cloud judgement.
Comments
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Trying to pick up some BVN but was too late before it bounced. BVN seems to be the only major or intermediate that may be at bottom already. It's the only major/intermediate I can find that through today had decreasing volume and bands contracting (everyone else has either rising volume w/falling prices and/or expanding bands. In recent times BVN has seemed to rebound before the rest of the miners, possibly because it is multi-faceted in gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. It's already off about 23% from its peak. Will BVN be the major/intermediate to show the way out again?
roadrunner
Not much to talk about, although a profit is a profit.
Now that im out you guys can make the big bucks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$xau and gdx are on the 1-yr uptrends. Will they hold?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
COT report for 12/18/09
The dollar futures continue to be the story. In one week the short to long commercial ratio increased from 2.4 to 6.0 with OI now at a hefty 51K. The only time in recent memory it was larger was during the several weeks of heavy deleveraging in Sept/Oct. 2008. For every long the non-commercials toss on, the banks have added a short. This is eerily similar to the action in August to September 2008 when the dollar was rising and the S/L comm. ratio quickly got up into the 6-8 range. Following each rise to that area the dollar tumbled but twice recovered.
This same high ratio was also seen back in February 2009. Then in early March the multi-month dollar move finally succumbed and the SM rally took over. Warning: in both those previous cases the dollar spent several weeks at those high ratio's before finally dropping. In Jan-Feb the successive weekly ratios were 3.2/3.67/6.05/6.40/8.13/5.42/4.6....so we could be here a while longer before the dollar suffers another correction.
Gold futures changed slightly with the commercials adding 290 longs and 4900 shorts to raise the ratio to 4.47. Silver was just the opposite with the selling of 3500 shorts and adding 411 longs (more bullish). Open Interest largely unchanged on both.
roadrunner
Do you have records of the open interest on gold and silver from 4-6 weeks ago?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The gold futures OI has been in the 490-530K range since mid-Oct peaking around 11/4 to 11/11 at 533K. The link above should give you abbreviated reports for each week of 2009. Goldseek puts this out every week which is a bit easier than digging through the cftc.gov site for the COT reports by trading exchange. And at the bottom of the page is the rest of the year's archived data.
roadrunner
I'm gonna do some homework. Hopefully I can find something interesting or tradeable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
First, USD ended it's 5th wave down as expected and is now in a substantial rally. The wave attitude of this wave is crucial to MT and long term outcomes. I have mentioned that if 76.8 was breached that more upside is likely, and a test of 80 is possible. I wish I was around to point out the text book perfect bull triangle last friday. That was the sign that 1116 (9%)was not going to hold as support.
Right now USD has a 38.2% fibo retrace level at approx 79.50 and the center of the previous wave 3 and 4 triangle is approx 80. These targets are very possible in the next couple short weeks. There is some minor trendline resistance in the 78 area, which could slow the advance some.
But the critical piece is wave attitude, how USD gets to 79-80 is very important. A 3 wave advance to this area would be a very good sign of continued long term USD errosion as it would likely be counted as a MT corrective wave up of a larger trend down.
However, if a 5 wave impulse up to 79-80 is realized instead, then this would be a big clue of a larger deflationary trend. If 80 serves as pivot, a breach of that level would have little problem moving up to 86 or better. All assets would likely decline substantially with gold falling the least in percentage terms, as the safe haven aspect of gold's nature hinders it's descent.
You have heard of 'sell in May and go away'. But I will coin a new phrase 'sell in December, as gold falls like timber'
Gold's correction from 1227 to 1095 is very concerning. Approx 11% pull back is beyond the norm. The Dec. 05 was about 9% the Dec. 07 was about 8%.
A 10-12% intial fall at this time could be a precursor to a major correction, instead of a MT correction of a continuing uptrend. I'm not ready to write off 1300 in January, but the probabiltiy has been reduced. 1070 is still a key level for maintaining further MT advances. If it fails then a complete back test of the 1032 breakout comes into focus.
Some of you remember my 'thick black line'. A breach of which was the key determinant suggesting that gold was much more likely to make a new high before a lower-low under 680. That proved to be true.
Now I have a new line in the sand the 'thick Red line' which is the trendline from 680 in Oct '08 to 930 in Aug '09. Gold must stay above this line to keep the probability of another higher-high positive. If this line is broken, then the probabilities of a new low below 680 become more likely than a new all time high. Currently that line is below the current price at 1028 (if I remember correctly). I'll have more in a gold chart later.
My chart of the thick RED line today puts it at $1045. In a couple of weeks it would be closer to the $1071 peak of the initial break-away peak. Fwiw when gold corrected from $1007 in Feb to $863 in April, that was a 14.3% drop. Dec 05 and Dec 07 didn't get as heated as this last month did for gold so a larger pullback would seem to be called for. The pull back so far is closely mirroring the Feb-April 2009 correction. If that holds true there is another month left before the first bottom is reached. And that would equate to approx $1051. However a sizeable bounce should occur inbetween.
roadrunner
I am concerned that he states the dollar could go higher. Doesnt he know the dollar is headed to oblivion?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gotta be nible now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The stock market appears to have begun its ascent, at least to 1160. I thought it might take gold with it but that doesn't appear to be the case. They are no longer coupled.
Looking at the chart below, the bottom edge of the channel is about 1095, but my error in drawing the channel is probably +/-5 at least. Ackerman is still calling for an entry point at 1090-1092, and I think we might get it. For this reason, I'm pretty much just going to sit out but if/when 1092 arrives, I will go all in with a 100% position.
Regardless of the macro-trend, I still think gold will try to at least touch 1190 again, so this would be a nice $100 move to take advantage of. I think any targets like 670 are laughable and illogical - I'd be my mortgage we'll see $2000 gold before $670.
I am concerned that he states the dollar could go higher. Doesn't he know the dollar is headed to oblivion?
I'm sure he knows that on the order of years the dollar is headed into oblivion. And as Keynes said....in the end we're all dead....including our fiat currencies.
roadrunner
XAU and GDX trading just below the year long uptrends. My gold long position is looking ugly and am very near putting on a massive position in ZSL.
Lots of weakness in Latin/South America stocks today. Something wicked coming?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>We'll all be long dead before the dollar is. >>
And the Titanic is unsinkable.
<< <i>Something wicked coming? >>
Universal health care.
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Big overseas Treasury holders such China and Japan are believed to have “strong-armed” the US in the recent past behind the scenes and essentially said “You either quit undermining your currency and defrauding us with your zero interest rate policy or we are going to dump them, big time, and collapse the Treasury market.” The Treasury market is the “aorta” of the US, which involves swapping essentially worthless paper for the goods and services of countries that are dumb enough to buy them, thus allowing the US to live way beyond its means running continuous massive deficits. It is viewed by the administration as infinitely more important than the stockmarket, which is small in comparison. It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. The rising Treasury yield curve, which has recently become very steep is indicating that rate rises are in the pipeline. Smart Money has already got wind of this and has been stampeding to close out US dollar carry trade positions, hence the breakout and sharp rise in the dollar, and the plunge in gold. The ordinary Joe sat rustling his newspaper hasn’t got the faintest idea of what is going on as usual. Given the magnitude of the US dollar carry trade positions that have built up this year on the back of unprecedented negative real interest rates in the US it should be obvious that a intensifying stampede out of them could easily drive a massive dollar spike, perhaps considerably larger than the one we saw last year, especially given the precarious condition of many countries in the European Union. In this situation commodities and the stockmarket will be trashed.
A little thing like this bothers you? Like I said, I really wouldn't want to be in long bonds about right now, and it looks like I really wouldn't want to be in stocks now either.
Looks like another whipsaw for retirees - the rising rates will look like an oasis for money fleeing the stock market, right before the hammer comes down.
cohodk, is this the 1 to 1 1/2 year time horizon that you are looking at?
I knew it would happen.
In name only. The dollar will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the US dollar but like FDR's 1934 USD, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation, competing IMF SDR's with the dollar as part of a new currency/commodity basket, gold linkage, etc.
PC, you got your $1090 bounce...and basically a touch of Sinclair's $1089 "angel." The last angel was at $1156.
A nice bump in lower maturity interest rates would be just what the doctor ordered for next week's 2/5/7 yr bond auction trifecta. I had previously erred in stating they were this week. It seems even "monetizing" takes a week off for the holidays.
roadrunner
jmski52, I think gold will be in this same general area 18 months from now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> We'll all be long dead before the dollar is.
In name only. The dollar will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the US dollar but like FDR's 1934 USD, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation, competing IMF SDR's with the dollar as part of a new currency/commodity basket, gold linkage, etc.
PC, you got your $1090 bounce...and basically a touch of Sinclair's $1089 "angel." The last angel was at $1156.
roadrunner >>
Roadrunner, forgive me if I take the liberty of changing just a few words.....The EURO will get some sort of face lift or adjustment in the not too-distant future. And we'll all be around to see it. It may be called the EURO but like Hitlers 1934 Mark, something will be altered whether it's the USDX makeup, formal devaluation,
The USDX makeup maybe changed, with the EURO comprising a much small percentage.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It is thus clear that if it is necessary to sacrifice the stockmarket by raising interest rates to rescue the Treasury market, then that is what’s going to happen. >>
I don't know that this is what's going to happen. Raising interest rates with the economy such that it is isn't going to fly - not on the political side. Neither the president or congress will let that happen if they have any say. They'll kill the dollar first... that's the only politically "safe" thing to do since they can blame a falling dollar on everyone but themselves. The Wall Street powers-that-be who have the politicians in their pockets will not support an interest rate hike either.
The bottom line: The US is between a rock and a hard place. Raise interest rates and kill Wall Street and extend the depression and high unemployment or keep rates low and kill the dollar. They'll kill the dollar every time. After all, they can just print more.
On the other hand, the unwinding of the dollar carry trade does make a reasonable explanation for the recent dollar spike. My only question is how big is the dollar carry trade, how much remains to be unwound, etc.
You think the dollar will be stable for that long? Hmmm.........I guess that gives me time to set up an account for some minors.
I knew it would happen.
Raising rates may "drop" the stock market and "raise" the bond market but it will totally destroy whats left of the housing market. With all the ARMs out there the rates HAVE to stay real low. If they raise rates they kill construction, skyrocket foreclosures, kill employment and kill the joke of a banking sector. JMHO
<< <i>jmski52, I think gold will be in this same general area 18 months from now.
You think the dollar will be stable for that long? Hmmm.........I guess that gives me time to set up an account for some minors. >>
Yes, I think the dollar will be stable to even higher over the next year(s). All this talk of dollar death and poor monetary and fiscal policy has failed to take the dollar below the 2008 lows, in fact, it has bottomed 5% higher than in 2008. My long term momo indicator is at a level that has marked major bottoms over the past 25 years. Bearish sentiment was off the charts--always a sign of a turning point. This doesnt look like the performance one would expect from something headed to oblivion.
I might be even so bold, some might read as "crazy", to say the dollar index could be in the high 90s in the next 2-3 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Euro is close to its 200dma so might be a small bounce in coming days.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Doubled up DGP at 25.44. Going into fighting mode now. 50dma is broken which will now probably turn to resistance. >>
Are you short or long?
Rather than making new posts I'll just edit with times.
Sold 1/2 of add on position at 25.74 at 12:02.
Sold other 1/2 of add-on at 26.04 at 12:47
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
The consensus from the web appears to be that gold is at or near a bottom here at 1075 or it may continue to 1000-1020. I don't think we'll see 1020. But I didn't think we'd go below 1100 either, so WTFDIK. The foray down to support level ~1074 was quick and gold recovered quickly, which is a good sign, at least for the near term. Of course, this trading near the holidays is tough because the market action is much different.
This article refers back to my post where the Fed is between a rock and a hard place - raise interest rates vs. kill the dollar.
This article says gold will trade in the $1000-1100 band for the next 6 months.... I don't agree.
This article is a good discussion of currencies vs. gold. Overall it's gold bullish but had these interesting quotes:
The strong rally in the dollar is indicating that at the very least gold will test the 990-1000 ranges before stabilising. If it fails to hold here, it could be an early indication of an even stronger pull back.
The unwinding of positions due to the dollar carryover trade could lead to a much stronger rally than most expect. Remember what happened to the New Zealand dollar a few years ago. Everyone was borrowing Yen to go long the New Zealand dollar. The Kiwi collapsed and the Yen soared. If something like that should come to pass now, it would result in a very strong pull back in the commodities sector.
This article was a great TA summary of all of the metals. One point is that the RSI remains bullish (above 40) on all metals. He predicted today's move to $1075.
And here's a VERY INTERESTING quote:
Dave Rosenberg wrote this week; "We are not sure if this is a well known "fact", but the U.S. government has a record $2.5 trillion of its debt, including bills, bonds and notes, rolling over in 2010. That, my friends, is 35% of the outstanding level of Uncle Sam’s marketable obligations having to be refinanced in one single year. "
This reflects the shift of US treasury financing to short term stuff. What happens if rates increase on $2.5T?
Recently China’s State Administrator of Foreign Exchange reaffirmed the dollars anchor status among currency reserves they manage. Do you believe them? They also said that the US dollars continued fall is “inevitable” since Washington continues to issue treasuries to finance deficit spending.
This short article said: "Gold prices have fallen down to a level where you might start to revive investment demand. There's a lot of reallocation going on.
Another article discussing the possibility of a pullback to $1000: With the EUR/USD breaking through an important support level at 1.4483 and the Dollar index showing signs of a short-term reversal in trend as it breaks the 77 level, it is likely that the dollar may continue to gain strength while gold retreats and consolidates again.
A good silver article talks about how silver will outperform gold and looks good:
Driven by demand from auto sector for silver-zinc batteries which are used in ‘smart automobiles’ and an array of portable electronic devices, the silver’s shining story will continue in the coming year also.
This one expects at least a temporary reversal of trends in USD & Gold:
My point is that now there is talk of another melt down in gold and equities similar to the last time the dollar bolted higher. I don't expect the same outcome. I am not saying there won't be pull backs, just not a wipe out like last year.
This Nobel economist says the US needs a 2nd round of stimulus.
And finally, the YuYangers' latest chart shows a gold bottom yesterday/today, although it's hard to tell and we're at the very edge of the chart.
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
A 38% retracement of the gold upmove from Nov 08 projects to about 1010 so I dont think $1000 should be unexpected.
A 38% retracement of the dollar downmove from March projects to about 80.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area.
Just targets that one needs to keep in mind.
Edited to comment on a few links.
Bevan's TA is faulty. He draws a trendline from the Aug low, yet uses a Fibonacci retracement from the Sept consolidation, thus giving false readings. RSI is now under 40--at 37.5--so now what? Silver RSI at 38.8. A lot of what he says is pure conjecture such as, " Slow STO is very low and bidding it’s time before showing us a massive move higher early in the new year." He may be right about a massive move, but it could just as easily be from 12.50 back to 16.50. I just think he is trying to play his bullish emotions into the charts. Its best to stay neutral.
I also agree to great extent with Sol Palha. You will see many of his comments echo those that I have written in the last week and before. Is he watching me? LOL
The Mindweb piece basically says what I did 2 months ago. Obviously agree, but feel the consolidation could be even longer.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The YuYangers were a week late in their gold top call so maybe they'll be a week early on their bottom call. Their buy zone is from Dec 26-30th...next week. So that's their posted bottom. But looking at their annual chart they show a brief bump up and then further downside in the 2nd half of January. Almost makes you wonder why bother buying? The YY's are now charging $550 per yr to see their charts in real time. Hopefully they will still show them at some point.....better late than never.
Next week is options expiration for gold, end of year closeouts, etc. as well as 3 more bond auctions. It would be a fitting spot for gold to hit bottom or conduct a retest of the bottom. It's certainly overdue for a bounce to retrace a portion of this $150 drop.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area.
That would be true if the run from November 2008 is complete. We still don't even know if the entire past 21 months was purely corrective. And if a new bull leg commenced in the past year, when was the start of it? Was it Nov 2008 or possibly August 2009? I tend to lean towards August 2009 being either the start of a whole new bull run upwards (following a 17 month correction) or the start of a 2nd up leg counting back from November 2008. Either way, there is at least another up leg, possibly 2, due in the sequence before it ends. The 2005 and 2007 moves began like the 2009 move but neither of those had blowoffs in November/December. That's not to say that the current move cannot still follow that 2 year pattern after a much sharper correction and run into March-May as they did. Those 2 earlier runs were in a much less volatile time period when the gold market was better managed. So is it a great surprise that 2 years later we are seeing much more volatility in the intermediate legs? (ie the up channel was broken out of before the 5 wave pattern was completed).
roadrunner
"Where are the stops?" Meaning the stop-loss orders. Max pain for market participants would be to run a lot of the stops and only after that start a painful rally after a lot of the funds using computerized technical models have reversed to the short side. This would also be a likely scenario if the market is manipulated by insiders, because it means max pain for everyone except the key-card-holders manipulating the market. Again, I will never argue about whether manipulation is occurring is not. Let price, volume and time tell the tale of the tape.
Just a thought, but a useful one in a volatile market.
Agreed. If we use Aug then today was a 50% retrace. But more usual retraces in an intermediate trend are 62% which would project to the $1025 area. This would also mark point #3 on a trendline from the Nov 08 low. Bouncing from there could indicate the run is still intact. This would be a 16% correction from the high which is inline with the corrections in Feb/Mar 09 and Mar/Apr 08 which both followed substantial rallies.
I dont agree that the market were "more managed" or "less volatile" however. If you look at the percentage moves you will see they are quite similar. Just the numbers are bigger.
RedTiger,
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Nov/Dec 2005 & 2007 corrections were only 9-10% but they didn't get as overheated as the current run did.
roadrunner
<< <i>
RedTiger,
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation. >>
You have a good point. The big hedge funds might be playing "chess" when I am still thinking in terms of the rules of "checkers." Complex derivative strategies are likely more common than old fashioned stop loss orders. However, as option experts will always say, there is no fool proof hedge. Every hedge has some kind of cost, and there will be times where the hedge can become a liability or near worthless.
With all that, if I was looking for where the stops might be, I'd guess there are a lot of stops just under $1000. So a hard break below $1000 might trigger some intermediate term stops. The bad news is that a break below $1000 support would do some technical damage to the bullish chart case. Ah well, as with hedges, the chart isn't fool proof either.
<< <i>A 38% retracement of the gold upmove from Nov 08 projects to about 1010 so I dont think $1000 should be unexpected.
A 38% retracement of the dollar downmove from March projects to about 80.
The retracement of the 05-06 gold move was about 55%. The retrace of the 07-08 move was about 50% initiallly, 85% eventually. If history repeats, this move could retrace 50% projecting to the $950 area. >>
Good things to keep in mind, but it all depends on where you measure. Tuesday's move is 38.2% retracement for the movement that started 4-6-09.
I am still looking for an exit point as I think I'll get a better entrance point, was hoping to get out North of 1090 but I might have to eat a small loss. I'm looking to buy in at 1066, which if you look at the charts is a VERY natural and solid support level... really about the highest support level we have as the other support levels are and have been pretty weak. Below that is 1020.
I've written before that I read somewhere that commodities like silver tend to lag gold by about 4 months. That 4 month point is right about now...
So a price target of $21-22 in the next 1-3 months is reasonable if this channel continues.
Im not talking about December and dont know what relevance that has other than it is now December. You shouldnt expect the same pattern to occur every year. That never happens. Im talking about the major runs in 05/06 and 07/08 and comparing to this run which I think is more appropriate. Continuing to look for $1300 as an H&S breakout will frustrate you as this, IMO, is not a classic H&S pattern. Gold was just as overheated 3 weeks ago as it was at previous peaks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I cant find anything in the charts that supports that view. Newsletter writers are grasping at straws. What may be more accurate is that interest rates lag gold, or gold leads interest rates, by about 6 months.
Here is my silver chart.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
RedTiger,
Most of the (smart) hedge funds should be (hedged). They wont necessarily use stop losses. This is the very reason why I am leery of the notion that "short" positions in the futures market are indicative of some sort of manipulation. >>
You have a good point. The big hedge funds might be playing "chess" when I am still thinking in terms of the rules of "checkers." Complex derivative strategies are likely more common than old fashioned stop loss orders. However, as option experts will always say, there is no fool proof hedge. Every hedge has some kind of cost, and there will be times where the hedge can become a liability or near worthless.
With all that, if I was looking for where the stops might be, I'd guess there are a lot of stops just under $1000. So a hard break below $1000 might trigger some intermediate term stops. The bad news is that a break below $1000 support would do some technical damage to the bullish chart case. Ah well, as with hedges, the chart isn't fool proof either. >>
Yes, every hedge has a cost, which is the premium paid. This will also cut into return. The worse case scenerio is a hedged asset that doesnt move. After time the cost to protect the position can wipe out a majority of the gain or even result in a loss. Thats why traders, especially momo guys like to play things that are moving which usually results in overshoots.
Agreed that there probably are a lot of stops just under $1000, so a dip under would not be surprising. Gold could drop to $800 and the secondary uptrend is still intact. Off the 2006 high gold dropped 25%, in 2008, I will use $750 as a bottom since there were some extraordinary circumstances surrounding the drop to $681, but this is still a 26% drop. A 26% drop from this high projects to about $900.
Now this would still put gold in an uptrend, but down $300 from its high. Can anyone understand my complacency comment now? Notice the widening trend lines. To me this means an extended period of sideways movement.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nice to see a number of the gold miners curl upwards from the slow stochastic 20 line even if this week will low trading volumes. A good number of the juniors have not seen a heck of lot of this current correction with some of them actually gaining the past 2 weeks. Eldorado was the least affected of the majors/intermediates, I think because it had a stellar 3rd Qtr earnings report. It's odd that a significant number of the mid to large cap junior gold miners are behaving as if this is a minor pullback, not the end of a 13 month run....soon to be followed by months of declines. Can't yet rule out that the SM lingering near yearly highs is keeping those other miners out of the frying pan.
roadrunner
Look at the chart I posted above, although somewhat tought o see as data is compressed.
In Decembers....
2001....gold flat
2002....gold up
2003....gold up
2004....gold down
2005....gold up then down
2006....gold down then up
2007....gold flat
2008....gold up
2009....gold down....
There is no pattern. My buddy--a long time B&M dealer now working with a large wholesaler-- just told me that gold is following the cycle of the full moon. I nearly drowned on my coffee. I mentioned to him the coinicidence of the Australia interest rate hikes to the full moon cycle and he didnt want to hear it. Amazing how intelligent people can allow emotions to cloud judgement.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks for the LINKS. Lots of good stuff to read over the Christmas break.
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