***DECEMBER Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***
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New Month, New Thread.
Gold just won't calm down. I know I'm getting anxious but I think the stock market is ready for another push higher and the dollar for another push lower. I think this will push gold even higher in the short term. I'm still hoping for a pullback to 1190 and even 1185, but I'm not sure we'll get it. If gold breaks out over 1210, I'm all in again (and of course, under 1190).
Gold just won't calm down. I know I'm getting anxious but I think the stock market is ready for another push higher and the dollar for another push lower. I think this will push gold even higher in the short term. I'm still hoping for a pullback to 1190 and even 1185, but I'm not sure we'll get it. If gold breaks out over 1210, I'm all in again (and of course, under 1190).
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roadrunner
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
The gold to silver ratio has been pulling back for about 2 months now. It's getting near the time when GSR should began another sharp down leg into the 50's where silver can test the $20-$22 level. Copper and platinum seem to be showing the way for silver.
roadrunner
I'm afraid lack of patience got to me tonight and I've been adding to my position. Gold charged right up to it's first resistance level and it's just hanging there, and I have a feeling it's going to bust through in the next few hours. If I'm wrong, I'll be more than happy to add to my position.
I also beefed up my silver holdings at $19.20.
Support is at 1181.3 and 1193.1, and resistance is at 1209.7 and 1221.4 and 1249.7.
Normally I'd say gold needs to consolidate here and I wouldn't be so anxious to add to holdings, but in this parabolic move gold doesn't seem to need to consolidate much or for very long and can keep going long after it should have stopped.
$1300 by the end of the year would be phenomenal, and not out of the question. Gold will need to consolidate or pullback eventually, but I don't see that happening any time soon. Most targets for this initial move up are 1400-1600, at which point I think we'll see a consolidation lasting perhaps 3 months, and then a resumption upwards.
Just posted this link in another thread. It's a bit wild, but it is through provoking. In the least, I think they are very aggressive with their timetable, but I do think their comment about the FDIC getting "secret financing" from the fed is accurate... The FDIC should have been broke a while ago, and I'm not sure how they are staying afloat. The theoretical move to abolish the FDIC sure would get people to pull their money from banks...
I think that their point about revaluation is very important.
I knew it would happen.
Friday could be big, as I think stocks are poisted for a run as the stock market consolidation is pretty much complete. Of course, it could resolve downward which would also probably drag gold down as well. If it resolves upward, gold could return to 1220's and/or head higher.
Silver kind of took a hit today relative to gold, but I suppose it's related to weakness in stocks on Thurs.
The charts look interesting. The USD is well above 75, not sure it will last though, just like on Thanksgiving. Could be a reversal though.
And then there's gold:
And finally silver. Silver appears to have returned to its channel, although my channel may not be drawn valid:
Platinum is showing strength, but my guess is those people who regain employment first pay their rent, fuel, and credit-card bills before they think of buying a new automobile.
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
We've seen gold fall less than silver as GSR increases a number of times this year. This is the 1st time I can recall seeing silver fall less than gold. It looks very odd and possibly contrived. Yeah, silver is more an industrial metal than gold and may be more strongly linked to equities. Still, it doesn't look right but it's bullish for gold imo. Note that copper and oil didn't take the hits that gold did either with both holding up rather well. This was a timed hit.
COT numbers showed a reversal in the dollar from a S/L ratio of 1.15 to 1.49. The commercials added shorts and sold off longs. In gold, the commercial S/L ratio increased slightly to 4.18 with more longs being sold off than shorts. Open interest was unchanged.
Next week comes another $131 BILL in bond auctions. Sheesh! I thought the scheduled auctions ended in October yet they are still continuing like clockwork every 2 weeks. The rising bond yields will help entice bidders in any event. If the dollar is showing strength it's probably only from our trading partners who want to keep their currencies cheaper to prop up exports. That kind of false support only lasts so long. It only needs to last long enough to complete the bond auctions so that the enthusiastic buyers can recycle their bonds through the FED's back door.
A good buying opportunity in PM stocks is either here or just around the corner. Will GDXJ fall back to issue price or lower? I don't know but I bought my first group today at 10% below this week's peak.
Here's Sinclair's take on this move which makes sense to me:
The dollar has rallied today and accordingly gold is soft.
1. The temporary high of this rally was $1224.00 to $1224.10 in the cash market 3 times.
2. Remember the day that unemployment figures went from 9.5% to 9.4%? It was heralded as the end of the continuous increase in that figure.
3. Gold at these price levels will axiomatically become extremely violent.
4. The magnet underlying gold is at $1156 and below that at $1089.
5. Regarding articles that claim gold has topped, the Chinese will be buyers on the decline if they can make that purchase and save face.
6. This is a boon to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve as his supporters can claim that changing leadership when things are turning is a greater risk than maintaining the present leadership at the Fed.
7. If Bernanke is confirmed, which is reasonable to assume, you can be sure that the pressures for policy will be generated via the Treasury.
8. Clearly this economy is bouncing along a bottom and has decelerated its decline, but is doing so poorly in light of the over the top liquidity placed into the world economy. This is how all figures, market related, react in a trend. That is all.
9. Respectfully, this is gold so if you cannot stand the heat in the kitchen then you had better leave. Buying dollars here has no real fundamental basis other than a few days at best.
The MOPE ( Management of Perspective Economics) accelerated two trading days ago is now rising to spiritual levels. The exception to this is at the US Labor Department. They suffered a major loss of standing when they went wild over the drop from 9.5% to 9.4% as the end of increasing unemployment.
I am interested in following the analysis of this number by paying attention to www.shadowstats.com. Gold weakness and dollar firmness is again temporary. Act with your head, not with your gut center of emotions.
roadrunner
It really seemed and seems like there was some heavy manipulation going on Friday. Not by government or other forces, but probably by big banks and hedge funds.
I think it's clear that we're in some kind of consolidation, probably for 2 weeks or so, and probably moves between 1140 and 1125. Might be a good chance to play some oscillations here.
The physical market is interesting. I can only really go by Ebay though, but even before Bing went to 15 and then 20% cash back, the inventory has really dried up. Can't hardly find any common MS61-MS63 $20/10 Indians, Saints, or Libs at good prices anymore. And then now that BING is 20% there's slim pickings. And retailers like APMEX have jacked their premiums on all gold bullion.
Is it possible that the $150 up move in the last 6 weeks was manipulation? Afterall, the dollar is higher today than in the middle of October.
I've always said that gold likes rising interest rates. When Australia raised rates on Oct 6, gold jumped $25, which was really the beginning of this accelerated move higher. Then they raised on Nov 3 and gold jumped $27. Then again on Dec 1 gold jumped another $22. Will they raise rates yet again on Jan 5? If that aint manipulation, I dont know what is. Hmmmmm?
Edited to add---nice evening star in the GLD chart on 12-3.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Is it possible that the $150 up move in the last 6 weeks was manipulation? Afterall, the dollar is higher today than in the middle of October.
I've always said that gold likes rising interest rates. When Australia raised rates on Oct 6, gold jumped $25, which was really the beginning of this accelerated move higher. Then they raised on Nov 3 and gold jumped $27. Then again on Dec 1 gold jumped another $22. Will they raise rates yet again on Jan 5? If that aint manipulation, I dont know what is. Hmmmmm? >>
Sure, gold could have been manipulated up as well. Nothing about the move up struck me as particularly coordinated or timed like the move down did, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.
Not sure who you're talking about with "they" manipulating interest rates (US or AUS?), but it doesn't really matter. The US has long been manipulating commodity prices by means of manipulating interest rates and money supply. That's what the fed's purpose is, after all. And it may not be a direct manipulation effort, but a side effect of some other intended response.
As far as silver, I one article I read was calling for $24 in the first half of next year.
Gold support is at 1051, 1096, 1113, with resistance at 1141.7, 1158.4, and 1187. Really wide support/resistance levels. Thursday might be volatile.
The stock market continues to move more-or-less sideways, but indications show that it's ready to make a move Friday - probably upward. I wonder if gold may be waitinf for Friday to make a move as well.
The USD is really on a tear. Up 2 points in 5 days. I would be surprised if it can keep going without taking a day or two to relax. A breakout over 76.6 would takes us to 77.5 and probably send gold down to 1080.
Everyone jumped on the great BLS jobs report of 11,000 jobs lost to dump PM's. The ADP report listed 169,000 jobs lost. Big discrepancy....I wonder which one is correct?...lol. Timing is everything.
How the Hunts took on silver in the 70's....and how the FEDs changed the rules along the way so that the Hunts would go down rather than themselves
roadrunner
Not an evening star. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
As for comments on manipulation, again, I never argue that point. To me, the question is basically a waste of time and energy for traders. Instead, focus on price and volume (and time). What happened seems much more likely to be a case that lots of folks were on crowded on one side of the boat, the wind shifted, and a lot of folks stumbled and fell at the same time. When a market has something like 10 up days in a row, with a nice big run up before those 10 days, and then some news comes out, a sharp reaction is rather typical market behavior.
Is is possible that gold wasn't adversely manipulated in October and it's now at it's proper market alignment now? Just sayin.....MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Maybe we can call it an evening doji star. In any event it was a bearish signal and the result was the same as in Mar 08, Jul 08, and Feb 09---an immediate and decisive trade. I hope you played it as it was a layup.
I closed my short--got in a little early, but increased position massively--today and nibbled on a double long etf when GLD was 109.80. Probably wont hold over the weekend as I believe Dubai Electric may miss a sukuk distribution next week. Dollar would scream on that news.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I believe Dubai Electric may miss a sukuk distribution next week. >>
There are several large debt payments due next Monday. I wonder if this is already built into the dolllar rally since most are now expecting it?
<< <i>My manipulation comments are just geared towards those who blindly think gold is ALWAYS manipulated lower. I just wanted to provide evidence that gold was manipulated higher in response to Australia raising interest rates. My opinions are always MY OPINIONS. I havent seen anyone write about the jumps gold made on the day Australia raised rates. I guess that isnt a sexy enough conspiracy.
Maybe we can call it an evening doji star. In any event it was a bearish signal and the result was the same as in Mar 08, Jul 08, and Feb 09---an immediate and decisive trade. I hope you played it as it was a layup.
I closed my short--got in a little early, but increased position massively--today and nibbled on a double long etf when GLD was 109.80. Probably wont hold over the weekend as I believe Dubai Electric may miss a sukuk distribution next week. Dollar would scream on that news. >>
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Sadly I didn't. The first and third candles were not part of the evening star pattern. The candle after December 3 was confusing to me and non confirming/neutral in my opinion and I passed. Now, the fourth candle was a doozy and I did get a little short then.
True evening and morning stars are automatic plays for me as the stops are easy.They are truly rare.............All the best my friend. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I don't know if Australia and their rates are the key to any world-wide market, especially gold. The US bond rates have not tracked well with gold as of late to the point where I haven't even been following them. TBT used to be a good indicator of gold's intermediate term trends but it has fallen out of favor. If that's not working I don't know why Australian rates should be any more significant. It's the real rates that count, not central bank inter-bank rates. And these days I'd say ransom money trumps rates.
I think gold will pick up steam the rest of December once we are done with the Thursday 30 yr TBond auction though it could take until Friday or Monday to reverse. Would not be surprised to see the SM join in now that Geithner has guaranteed ransom payments through October 2010. That along with Bernanke guaranteeing 0% interest rates for quite some time is a bankster's dream. TARP ransom money is probably far more significant to market liquidity than where short term interest rates are placed.
The YYangers are looking at 2+ more weeks of correction. Considering they were a week early in calling the gold peak, they should be a week early on the reversal. They lost a little luster on that call. But....their initial call does coincide better with the Dec 28-30th bond auctions and futures expiration the Monday and Tuesday after Christmas.
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The stock markets are loaded with energy and ready to spring. May come Thurs or delay to Friday. This will probably have a positive effect on gold as well.
The end of the debt auctions will help also.
Some observations:
--Silver is approaching the bottom of the upward channel that I have drawn. I've got the bottom at $17.00 today, and it was practically there on Wed.
--Gold is now back in it's upward channel that I have posted before. The upper limit is at about 1150.
--$1130 is proving to be a solid level that gold seems to keep being attracted to.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Maybe we can call it an evening doji star. In any event it was a bearish signal and the result was the same as in Mar 08, Jul 08, and Feb 09---an immediate and decisive trade. I hope you played it as it was a layup.
If you'd share with the rest of us when you observe these things, maybe we could all benefit.
<< <i>We now have a clear break of the downtrend in the dollar following a 6 month period of non-confirmation in some momo indicators. IE, momo did not go lower while the price did. The dollar is still quite a ways from the 200dma and there is a lot of stored energy in that chart. Maybe Bernanke can dissipate that energy into a sideways consolidation, but the dollar is clearly not going lower for the next several weeks-2 months. >>
I would agree. The USD is headed for sideways or upward movement for probably the next month. This coincides with my personal and the YuYangers' call for gold to consolidate for a month or so.
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe we can call it an evening doji star. In any event it was a bearish signal and the result was the same as in Mar 08, Jul 08, and Feb 09---an immediate and decisive trade. I hope you played it as it was a layup.
If you'd share with the rest of us when you observe these things, maybe we could all benefit. >>
Agreed, im not always sure my opinion is very valued.
As I mentioned several weeks ago when there was a possible evening star reversal--the 3rd day didnt play out, the previous scenerios resulted in 6-8 week declines averaging about 20%.
Added---just closed DGP at 28.38 for just under 2% clear. Gold should have bounced a bit more today--maybe tomorrow--but as they say, 2% a day keeps the bill collector away, so I take my ball and go home.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Momentum is turning on the gold stocks which indicates either commencement of the 5th leg up to $1300ish or starting the B leg up to $1200 before a final C retrace. Don't feel the YuYangers call to Dec 23rd will last as gold will run to finish December on a high note. It can't do that starting that late in the month right around options expiration. While the previous legs coincided well with the start of each month (Sept, Oct, Nov, and Dec) I don't think this correction is going to wait a full month. This 4th corrective leg should be more swift. The SM wants to finish the year with a bang...not a whimper...and gold has to play along.
Nibbled on more gold miner juniors today along with GDXJ. That's the 3rd day in a row. I have about 40% of that position now set. With gold already back to $1135 I have to wonder if I hung back too long. Usually I commit too much too early. And one of the keys to waiting long enough is seeing a lot of pain in how low the miners have decayed. I don't really have that sinking feeling that they were fully obliterated yet and stupid cheap. Sure they've corrected a solid 15% but a 20-30% obliteration has often set the table for most of the bigger corrections this year...at least the pre-Sept corrections. I like where most of the oscillators and indicators are at currently. Only Aroon 10 & 15 aren't where I like to see them. The neg line is up near 100 on most of them but the positive line is only down to mid-range. Usually that tracks all the way to near zero before things switch back. That would support PC's timing of later December. At least another 5 or more trading downdays would be needed for that.
Many of the miner volumes (see BVN, GG, ABX, IAG, KGC, GBG, NG, AUY, AEM...basically most of GDX) have been tracking down very steadily to low levels indicating the immediate downturn has lost strength. The 10 day Boll Bands are turning in over as well. Since the miners headed down days before gold did it would be logical that they lead the way up. The dollar could stay strong as suggested in previous posts but there is no reason that gold cannot stay strong with it. The 30 yr bond auction today was deemed an "F" by CNBC's Rick Santelli with having to give a high rate to get them all sold. I was in the next room when I heard that so maybe I got it wrong. "F" can sound like "A." Anyways bonds are done for 2 weeks....time to relight the reflation trade.
roadrunner
<< <i>Agreed, im not always sure my opinion is very valued.
I like to hear everyone's opinion... whether it reinforces my own opinions or opposes what I think, I like to know what others are thinking to help gauge or adjust my confidence level. In the end I don't think it would have helped with last Friday as I spent the day waiting for a bounce that never came, but maybe I would have unloaded long positions a bit more aggressively. What I like is that it appears we all looking at different indicators in here, so the additional perspectives are helpful. I may disagree with some of the observations, but that doesn't mean I don't value them. Of course, it helps if the opinions are at least partially explained and not cryptic phrases or (apparently) baseless predictions.
I think gold has finally made it through the lowest part of this consolidation, and gold is ready to rise. I suppose the consolidation could take gold to new highs as RR is suggesting - I hadn't seriously considered that thought but I had read somewhere that the last trend ended at ~1190 and that the move to 1227 was part of a consolidation. If the consolidation is a penant consolidation then obviously we'll be looking at lows higher than 1117 and lower than 1227 to come. But the shape of the consolidation is still TBD. The only thing I feel is that we've got at least 3 more weeks of it.
A few things are pointing to an upward resumption, and Ackerman is watching for (and expecting) a return to 1154.5. The bond auctions are over which should help. The USD futures chart (DX) is showing now 4 candles that are all topping out in the 76.4x area, indicating to me a top is forming - and is appropriate after a 2 point move. Gold has now experienced about 7 days of downward pressure in a row, so it's probably "due" for a few days of upside at least. Seasonally, I guess next week is supposed to be a bullish weak for gold, or at least is has been in 15 of the past 17 years. And finally, the stock market looks like it is ready for a good up-day on Friday, ready to begin a new move to the upside.
Support is at 1114.6, 1123.2, 1130.6, and resistance is at 1139.3, 1146.6, 1162.6.
Nibbled on a bit more GDXJ today at its bottom and picked up a couple of 1 oz Krugs at $1110 each.
COT Report - gold & silver both shed about 2X as many shorts as longs as OI dropped considerably. Gold OI fell by 15K to 505K with the S/L ratio increasing to 4.43. The dollar was surprising at it shifted massively more to the short side where it had been trending. OI increased to a record 48.6K for this year with 9,000 contracts all being added on the short side. Ratio now at 2.49 Short to Long. Seems like odd behavior for a dollar bull market just beginning.
Edited: it just occured to me that I totally missed the switchover from commercial interest in the dollar going from overall long to overall short back on the 11/20 report. The numbers were so similar I just divided the bigger one by the smaller one and reported it as the same Long to Short ratio. In any case the ratio has been trending down from heavily long in early August to now decidedly short. If this is as far as the ratio goes then it could signify the last piling on of those trying to short the dollar - effectively ending last week or through Monday/Tuesday of this week. A total interest of 48K is the largest by far this year and a huge one week gain. We'll have to see. Earlier this year the short to long ratio peaked around 8 but at a much smaller 25,000 contracts.
roadrunner
Really?
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I got short on Monday and missed a chunk. I didn't feel comfortable with last Thursay's's non confirming candle as mentioned in another thread (especially with gold in an uptrend) and Friday was hard to trade after the gap down.
Again, this is only a trade. Has nothing to do with my long term beliefs. I'm looking to turn this trade around next week. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The dollar moved up further, it seems like it can't be stopped.
While stochastics aren't always the best indicator, my slow stochastics charts show which typically only come to a point and then reverse are showing the USD at 98% and gold at 2%, so there should be some relief on Monday. The other things I mentioned Friday are still valid as well.
However, I agree that there may be more weakness to come. Ackerman is looking to 1190 as a bounce point. I could see Monday working out with a long tail down to touch/test 1100 or 1090 but recovering by the end of the day.
Of course, sometimes the secular trend is so strong that sentiment can stay stuck at extremes for long periods and the majority can be right.
I do wish folks trading real money would report more of their losing trades on the forum. Selectively reporting winners isn't doing anyone any favors. With the violent moves recently, someone is losing money. Most folks learn more from their mistakes than their successes. The readers would almost certainly learn a lot more too, as would the person reporting the losing trade(s).
<< <i><<but the dollar is clearly not going lower for the next several weeks-2 months>>
Really?
MJ >>
Really.
Wont be hitting any new lows. There will be trading opps though.
Bot DGP at 23.61 on Friday. 50dma should at as a little springboard. 38% retracement of the downmove puts GLD at 113 which is also the 12-08 high and 11-27 low. I wont hold that long though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Best case for the long term might well be a hard shake of the tree to get a good many of the newsletter/hotline gold folks off the bandwagon. As long as the majority stays stubbornly bullish in the face of a decline, odds favor lower prices, with extreme difficultly in making new highs. It takes too much fuel to carry all those bandwagon folks.
Of course, sometimes the secular trend is so strong that sentiment can stay stuck at extremes for long periods and the majority can be right.
I do wish folks trading real money would report more of their losing trades on the forum. Selectively reporting winners isn't doing anyone any favors. With the violent moves recently, someone is losing money. Most folks learn more from their mistakes than their successes. The readers would almost certainly learn a lot more too, as would the person reporting the losing trade(s). >>
I was short gold via DZZ for the last month or so. I had to keep averaging in and then covering on quick drops--as in day after Thanksgiving. Losses were contained to a dime or so, so nothing really to report. Rule number 1 in trading is KEEP LOSSES SMALL. Do you want to hear about 5 1% losses or about 1 20% gain. The mistake I made was not being patient. Luckily my short position was small, and I increased dramatically on the dollar beakout. I was also short the market on the dollar breakout, which has only had marginal success.
Those losing money are the ones that I previously called complacent. Those are not traders. When this run is over, whether it be today or in 5 -10 years, the biggest losers will always be the long term buy and hold guys--the same guys who bought and held equities for the last 10 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I do have a sell price for the physical gold and silver. When that happens, I'll see a very nice profit on the sale. Edited to add, I'll keep some physical PM's just to remind myself that I will not see another bull market in PM's like this in my lifetime. I'm a young 56.
<< <i>
<< <i>Best case for the long term might well be a hard shake of the tree to get a good many of the newsletter/hotline gold folks off the bandwagon. As long as the majority stays stubbornly bullish in the face of a decline, odds favor lower prices, with extreme difficultly in making new highs. It takes too much fuel to carry all those bandwagon folks.
Of course, sometimes the secular trend is so strong that sentiment can stay stuck at extremes for long periods and the majority can be right.
I do wish folks trading real money would report more of their losing trades on the forum. Selectively reporting winners isn't doing anyone any favors. With the violent moves recently, someone is losing money. Most folks learn more from their mistakes than their successes. The readers would almost certainly learn a lot more too, as would the person reporting the losing trade(s). >>
I was short gold via DZZ for the last month or so. I had to keep averaging in and then covering on quick drops--as in day after Thanksgiving. Losses were contained to a dime or so, so nothing really to report. Rule number 1 in trading is KEEP LOSSES SMALL. Do you want to hear about 5 1% losses or about 1 20% gain. The mistake I made was not being patient. Luckily my short position was small, and I increased dramatically on the dollar beakout. I was also short the market on the dollar breakout, which has only had marginal success.
Those losing money are the ones that I previously called complacent. Those are not traders. When this run is over, whether it be today or in 5 -10 years, the biggest losers will always be the long term buy and hold guys--the same guys who bought and held equities for the last 10 years. >>
Why not report the many small losses that were stopped out when you report the big gain? You recently report a tiny inconsequential 2% winner, but didn't mention any losers. You've been on the forum a long while, so why not report after some of your worst losing months or weeks and lessons learned? Readers will learn a lot more from that, than yet another trader posting about a big winner without any context of finding that winner, and the many losses and/or increasing position size (risk) that were done to turn a losing balance into a positive one.
Obviously, folks are busy trading, so reporting every small time stop-loss is too much. However, a long string of them, during a particularly tough week or month, and the lessons learned during that period, would likely be quite instructive to the readers.
It is unfortunate, but there are plenty of folks on the Internet that report 100% winning track records or similar as short term traders, or only report their winners. A good many that boast of such records are outright charlatans, and many of them don't even trade real money.
As for the long termers that only buy physical, while those comments are certainly welcome, the primary focus of this monthly thread is for those that are doing short term trading, or interested in learning about it.
As far as tonight and tomorrow, gold looks like it has definitely stabilized and is going to start to recover some of its lost ground. I think gold is going to have a "big day" this week ($20-30), but I don't think it will be Tuesday. A key level here is 1242, which gold has tested from below twice already. The question is whether it will get through on the 3rd or 4th try. The consensus appears to be growing and the evidence mounting that we're in a triangle consolidation period. So I think 1200 is in the future sometime this week or next.
Ackerman is still calling for a low of 1090 but I don't think we'll see it, but I'll remain cautious for the possibility. 1090 is the bottom of the upward channel that I had posted here before. 1150 is the top of that channel.
Support is at 1099, 1111, 1119.7, 1124.2, and resistance is at 1132.3, 1136.8, 1149.4.
Given these support levels, I can see gold grinding up to the 1132-1137 range and hanging there for a day.
<< <i>
As far as tonight and tomorrow, gold looks like it has definitely stabilized and is going to start to recover some of its lost ground. I think gold is going to have a "big day" this week ($20-30), but I don't think it will be Tuesday. A key level here is 1242, which gold has tested from below twice already. The question is whether it will get through on the 3rd or 4th try. The consensus appears to be growing and the evidence mounting that we're in a triangle consolidation period. So I think 1200 is in the future sometime this week or next.
Ackerman is still calling for a low of 1090 but I don't think we'll see it, but I'll remain cautious for the possibility. 1090 is the bottom of the upward channel that I had posted here before. 1150 is the top of that channel.
Support is at 1099, 1111, 1119.7, 1124.2, and resistance is at 1132.3, 1136.8, 1149.4.
Given these support levels, I can see gold grinding up to the 1132-1137 range and hanging there for a day. >>
If you are a technician, run! Run from your charts!
Never trade charts when there are overwhelming fundamentals before you.
US interest rates are rising on the inflation news and traders are going to be unwinding their dollar carry trade positions.
For a short while, we'll be seeing long interest rates rising, US stocks falling, and the dollar getting stronger against the Euro, and gold falling.
For a short while, we'll be seeing long interest rates rising, US stocks falling, and the dollar getting stronger against the Euro, and gold falling.
Fundamentally, gold will follow rising long term interest rates. Fundamentally, all currencies are being driven into the ground as we speak. The fact that the dollar may for a couple of weeks be driven less into the ground than other currencies as they cycle among themselves is not a fundamental reason for strength, but more a charting/technical reason. The dollar did not gain strength during the 1970's when long term rates were rising (ie the 1970's). It's going to take rates much higher than today's level to restore actual "strength" to the US dollar. There are trillions invested in the dollar carry trade. What's to keep those hard core positions from only continuing to add more dollar shorts as the dollar continues to mozy up? The commercial action on dollar futures the past few weeks has continued to pile into the short side. Is that the result of the carry traders continuing to "protect" their positions?
Rates have been rising since the bond auctions ended last week, well before today's higher than expected PPI data. Fundamentals can't show inflation and deflation swapping from week to week. Eventually the truth will come out. The action in gold and the dollar can be spun any number of ways, leading to one's intended result. Let's let gold decide where it wants to go. The fundamentals for gold look good to me. I really can't say the same for the dollar or treasuries
Gold to Silver ratio major trend change now occuring?
GSR chart has now shown a touch of the 200 dma and upper bands followed by a pullback. That's the first return to the 200 dma since July (major B leg) and makes sense that it also occured on the smaller b wave pullback. This would be a convenient place to end the multi-month GSR correction after zig-zagging 5 legs upward from 58 to 65. If this is the end of the b leg that began in September, then we could see approx 10 weeks in the downward direction to match the July-Sept. downleg....thus completing the smaller abc (of C) of the larger ABC that began in March 2008. Silver outperforming gold from here would tend to imply liquidity returning though gold dropping faster than silver would accomplish the same thing. I think the former is more likely.
Comex gold margin requirements now raised from $4500 to $5403 per contract. Following a 10% drop in the pog this seems rather odd. Are the commerical shorts in that bad a shape?
roadrunner
The increasing of the comex gold contract price typically reflects either volatility or an attempt to reduce the overall ownership of gold futures contracts. The move of course, does affect longs and shorts the same.
It seems that gold is holding up relatively well and not giving way much below $1120 despite the dollar rising. Of course lately, it's not so much that the dollar is rising but that the Euro is falling.
The charts are full of energy and gold is definitely ready to make its next move (up or down). I'm still cautious of a possible low of 1090 which has been forcasted by some but corresponds to the lower boundary of the upward channel gold is in.
Support is at 1104.7, 1115.5, 1122.9, and resistance is at 1133.7, 1141.1, 1159.3.
Edited to add: SP500 looks like it is energized and ready for its next move, which I expect to come to the upside. I am long on one contract since 1088, and my upside target for the next move is 1160. 1110 is a critical point, and I am looking for a decisive move over this level to determine that SP500 is ready for the next move. I think this could help lift gold a little.
Yesterday looked really promising, but gold was unable to penetrate a key level or resistance at ~1142.5.
Given the rise in the USD, gold and silver are holding up fairly well, and the 1115 area appears to be providing solid support. I guess weakness in the Euro is driving the dollar. Last night's dollar move took gold up to the 3rd resistance level of 78.10.
Sotchastics on all 15m, hourly, and daily time frames are about as low as they can get. And while they can stay low for as long as they want, it should mean that they are ready to rebound at any moment.
Support is at 1095 and 1115, and resistance is at 1126.9, 1134.8, and 1146.7.
Sure is. Thats why I took small gains on my long positions and have been flat the last few days.
Look at a chart, any chart. How many major moves (10%+) are there in a 1 year time frame? Not many but enough to trade. If you look for these times, you will be able to sit out of the market--and safe-- 80% of the time. You will avoid whiplash. You do not have to trade everyday to make money. Knowing when not to trade is much more important than knowing when to trade.
For example, the general equity market has been abysmal to trade the last 2 months. Brutal. It would have been best to not be in the market at all. The next 4 weeks, I believe, will prove different and more profitable.
This morn the Euro gapped down below the bottom B band and gold has again found support at the 50dma. Logically this would not be a bad place to initate a small long, but why fight the tape? Is there a 10% move coming?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
With gold breaking $1109 it may be headed to the $1070-$1089 resistance area before this correction is over. The miners are now free falling off the cliff which often says the correction for them is waning. Freeport McMoran (FCX) is now showing a perfect 5 wave correction as it's 5 leg is taking shape. I would look to the FCX 5 wave formation to signal an end to the commodities bashing. Unfortunately the GSR tending to stall/fall has meant gold is falling faster than silver. Not the prefered scenario.
roadrunner