Ackerman's morning blog is claiming that the 1174.9 target they had for gold was hit when gold topped at 1174.0 yesterday. I'm on the fence now, I'm not sure what to think here... if I should reduce my positions and wait for the pullback or hope for another surge to 1175. I thought it was coming this morning but it stopped just shy of 1172, and then rolled over hard to 1165 where it is as I write this.
So I don't expect much to happen the rest of this holiday week, everything will probably be range bound. But I have to ask, where does the USD go from here?
A two day close outside that channel would get my attenta up....MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
That's been the $64,000 question for some time now.....where and when does the dollar break? Fundamentally there is nothing but air underneath the USDX right now while technically it's well overdue for a rise. Yet I'm still leaning towards the Cliff Droke 10 year cycle end pulling the SM and commodities into further strength the rest of the year. It's exactly the opposite of the much anticipated corrections that have just not materialized. I see the prices of copper, plat, pall. continuing to linger at these levels just asking for more upside. JS's next target of $1224 would seem to be the most one could ask for on gold's current move...maybe even just a whack at $1200. The dollar almost appears to be extraneous to the current action.
In reviewing the 3 year weekly gold chart the momentum has gone parabolic over the past month and is getting close to reaching the high set back in early 2008. This could break the macd downtrend that Cohodk brought up in his thread. In fact the momentum's rate of change has already exceeded what occurred back in 2007-2008. Cohodk's 45/25/25 long term full stochastic is also now firmly entrenched >80. This is all very similar to gold's move back in late 2007...only stronger. The 2 time frames are nearly identical in all respects. Fwiw the 2009 move is not as far above the moving averages as the 2007-2008 move was. So still some room there.
GSR looks to continue on its way up while GDX/GLD ratio is headed down....bad news for the miners. Most of the 20 day BBs are rolling over now. Usually that multi-week trend has been hard to stop.
<< <i>Ackerman's morning blog is claiming that the 1174.9 target they had for gold was hit when gold topped at 1174.0 yesterday. I'm on the fence now, I'm not sure what to think here... if I should reduce my positions and wait for the pullback or hope for another surge to 1175. I thought it was coming this morning but it stopped just shy of 1172, and then rolled over hard to 1165 where it is as I write this.
So I don't expect much to happen the rest of this holiday week, everything will probably be range bound. But I have to ask, where does the USD go from here?
>>
Depends which line is broken. If it can get above 76, then the target would be 78.50. A pullback from there that holds above 77 targets 81. If it breaks 75, then target is low 73's. Im not sure sentiment could be any more negative.
GSR looks to continue on its way up while GDX/GLD ratio is headed down....bad news for the miners. Most of the 20 day BBs are rolling over now. Usually that multi-week trend has been hard to stop.
What's a "BB"? Thanks.
roadrunner, are you tracking the Van Eck fund, and does it act differently than the miners that you are referring to as having this bad news?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Gold is already on the move tonight, just made an ATH of 1178 on the Feb contract (about 1176 on the Dec contract). This is the week where most traders will be rolling their contracts from December to Feb. During this transition my numbers may be off by about $2. The difference in price in the contracts is about $1.70.
After the bullishness today, I pared back my sell orders before the last surge. I was at about 120%, now I'm at about 90%. I think tonight/Wednesday is going to be great for gold and we should see another push higher, perhaps as high as 1195. I wonder though, if this will be accompanied by a drop of the USD below 75.00?
Support is at 1166.2, 1175 and resistance is at 1180 and 1194. So I think it will be possible and likely to hit 1190.
In the bigger picture, I have got to think that gold is ready for a pullback, and I think the indicator for this will be the USD. If we see USD continue to go sideways, then gold might retract a bit. If we see USD plummet through 75.0, then gold may have more upside. Either way, I'm paring down my position at 1190 or so, but I think I'll keep 25% just in case gold keeps going. In this parabolic move, you never know when it's going to stop.
What's a "BB"? Thanks. ........are you tracking the Van Eck fund, and does it act differently than the miners that you are referring to as having this bad news?
A Bollinger Band is simply the expected mathematical trading range for a stock based on a multiple of a standard deviation. Typically BB's are charted in multiples of 10 days for daily charts. So 20, 30, 40, etc. are seen fairly often. With that time frame is how much deviation one is looking for. Default values are usually 2 standard deviations. One can plug in whatever they want. When the stock price gets outside of this trading band it increases the probability of a falling back inside or shifting towards the other end of the channel.
I've been watching GDXJ each day. It has been behaving pretty closely to GDX for what it's worth. But there are a number of the 38 stocks in GDXJ that are doing their own thing apart from the trend in BB's. The major stocks in GDX seem to be pretty consistent with the shape of their trading band widths. The miners may have reacted weakly today and end of yesterday but gold making new highs will probably reverse that trend unless the SM dumps, which seems unlikely as money is flowing into everything but the dollar.
some really dumb questions where are you guys trading i know metals but what sign's what accounts or with what type of accounts and can i set one up on line and who or what is the best priced and easiest to work with thanks
I use a live broker for some futures trades others I make myself.
Online, I use Optionsxpress but there are not the cheapest but I like them A LOT.
Some of my trader friends love TradeStation and Think or Swim.
ETrade should be fine also. Good luck. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I use OptionsXpress and ThinkOrSwim. TOS is *THE BEST* trading platform out there for active traders, and cheap - only $3.50 per contract.
I use OXPS only because I have a separate account that I want to keep funds separate. Their commissions are a bit high, but I did get them to lower them due to my trading activity levels.
Personally I do not like trading slv and gld. Sometimes I will use these as a hedge on the short side or in a pairs trade perhaps
I tend to trade fut's in most commodites including grains. I DT and ST miner's and currencies.
All of the sites I suggested have virtual practice trading accounts. I strongly discourage DT or ST trading any of the instruments above until you garner a ton of experience. When trading futures or forex you are trading against some of the brightest minds (myself exluded) both human and non-human -trading programs
On a sidebar the Swiss franc is now at par with the dollar. Cando and Aussie next IMO. A few months away.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Today was another very bullish day. I keep thinking that gold and USD need to pullback here, and they do, but I'm not sure it's going to happen immediately.
With some of the recent news and the fact that the USD breach of the 75.0 level was decisive and while it could bounce back a bit, it could very well keep going Thurs and Fri... although I expect it to be pretty quiet. It's tough to make calls here because gold isn't behaving like "it's supposed to."
In the process of getting rid of the Dec contracts, I've pared back my gold positions to 50% and I'll probably pare back more at 1200. I had thought 1200 was going to be the peak for this initial move from 900's, but I'm more and more convinced that 1300 is in the cards possibly and probably by the end of the year. If there is a pullback/consolidation I don't expect it to be huge... maybe $20-30 or so.
I had the opportunity to buy a stack of AGE's today at good prices from one of the local dealers so I took the plunge and drove an hour to pick them up. It's for the longer term anyways so I'm not going to be spooked if we see a pullback. My dealer got in them at 3.5% under melt so I paid him 1% over spot. The dollar crashing into the low 74's is not exactly a sign of fiat strength. Some of the wave counters feel this is still in the 3rd wave down of 5 total. Was surprised to see $1190 gold when I got home after the close. When I left it was $1185 and I was "sure" it would only go lower.
In talking to a full-time gold dealer he says the supply of anything in gold coinage right now is very thin. He has lots of big orders from his regulars in slabbed or bullion gold. The problem is finding the coins. $20 Libs in MS grades continue to be the leader. The MS63 $20 Libs continue to match the MS65 Saints dollar for dollar. Now both at $2600/$2700 levels.
Not sure what to make of the news on the Dubai default as it relates to gold... Stock markets are tanking. I think were at an important point in the chart cycle where we need to see where it's going to go next before acting... but the constant battle of fear and greed has me wanting to load up one minute and sell my remaining holdings the next... I really can see it going either way from here. I think I will buy a bit at 1182 if we see that level again... Below that is 1169 for Friday. Resistance is still at 1202 and 1190. I'll also probably buy on a definitive breakout over 1200...
Wow, the drop was little weird. The Dubai news was out for quite a while but the POG seemed to be unaffected. Then in the middle of the night it just started to tank incredibly fast. It was weird because it seemed to take a few hours for the Dubai news to take effect. Unfortunately, I bought I on the way down, increasing from 50% position to about 75%. Then in Murphy's law fashion, I panicked and sold some near the lows, 1140... Luckily I did buy back in after a while with a full position, and should POG hit 1190 again I should be back to where I was Wednesday... I'm disappointed I didn't play that any better - it was a great opportunity - but I can't complain to have made it out of that unscathed.
Still, As far as where gold goes from here I'm not sure what conclusions to draw since the drop and recovery happened so fast. The speed and extent of the recovery is very bullish. I'm still not sure whether to take the recent action as an anomaly or signs of more weekness to come. What does everyone else think?
A very weird drop because platinum and copper not only held up well but advanced. Did someone forget to include them on the hammertime check list? Oops!
I'd have to say that the banksters took advantage of this "temporary weakness" to push gold down a bit further to clear out some shorts while they could. Gold has been ripe for some sort of meaningful drop for weeks now so this may have played into those fears. I took the day off to bring a car to the shop and hit a coin show about 1-1/2 hours away. I see that I missed another good opportunity to get some GDXJ shares on the cheap. How many more chances will there be? The gold stocks did appear to be rounding over so maybe this was some extra momentum to kick them over the edge for a while. Something tells me that if you didn't buy on the dip today you lost out on a good opportunity.
The Dubai thing is peanuts compared to the mess the world banksters have in other illiquid assets, but nonetheless a fine opportunity to whip Dubai and blame them for what ails us even if their total debt is nearly meaningless. Madoff's investors had a similar-sized loss. I think it was a well-manufactured head fake either on Dubai's part to get better debt financing terms....or they were instructed by other players to help take down the world SM's for one day to conveniently lower gold prices before the month ended. This well designed whallop while the US markets were closed for Holiday may have been the only way the US banksters could unload their shorts before another leg up. I hope it lasts to until early next week so I can start reloading on junior gold miners. The unusual strength in 2 year treasuries counter to the climbing SM for the week leading up to this smack down indicated someone knew what was going to happen with Dubai and positioned accordingly.
Silver looks to be winding down it's consolidation after restesting the IH&S formation neckline at $17.70. A sizeable gap still exists at $17.40+. Maybe that gets filled early next week then off to the races again as a new month starts. Same pattern as September, October and November. Rinse....lather....repeat. If a larger percentage of Comex gold/silver contracts get tapped for delivery that will be a big boost for the metals.
Interesting charts indeed, pointing to $1450 gold. The consensus appears to be $1400-1600 gold, and $1450 is right in there.
This article has Jim Rogers recomending silver and palladium. I have to say that I agree... I think that from this point Ag and Pd probably have better potential percentage-wise than gold. If I hadn't been in holiday mode and bloated with food on Friday during all of the excitement, I would have opened some silver positions and bought more GDXJ. I've read and observed that there is an approx 4 month lag of commodities relative to gold, and that means that commodities are about ready to take off. I'm not giving up on gold though, that will still be my primary trading vehicle. I suppose platinum's good as well, but Ag and Pd are so much cheaper.
Not a lot of articles out yet talking about where things are headed. I found it interesting that gold shot up about $5 in the few minutes of the session. I think that bodes well for Monday... someone was anxious to get themselves in before the weekend.
A couple of things to consider: 1. The media is reporting pretty good news related to Black Friday and shopping. This should boost the SM and PMs. 2. The USD rebounded back up to 75.0... although this level is now resistance, it will be interesting to see if USD will come back. 3. The USD may see some more strength this week due to more "flight to safety" - unclear if this will affect POG
Overall, I think the positive black friday news will push gold back up in to the 1190's. I'm still not sure if we'll see gold much over $1200 soon, but I don't see demand for gold waning anytime soon. I do think premiums on physical gold will continue to increase.
Adam Brochert had an interesting article on short term treasuries over on www.financialsense.com. There are some forboding similarities between the short term bond yields over the past few weeks and what they did last year. The recent tanking of the Nikkei and Greece stock markets might be showing the way for the S&P. Gold is still probably as safe a haven as the dollar if things erupt. At least initially tonight the dollar is struggling with the 75.0 level. And I agree with PC that silver looks to be getting primed for a move.
Interesting article. At the end he suggests that gold won't collapse because central governments will be buyers "under the market." I assume this means they buy on significant dips. If this is the case, and CB's are buying on the open (futures) market, then these are the kind of buyers that will be demanding physical delivery...
At open the market was nuts with ltos of volatitility. It's calmed down for now, but there appears to be solid support at 1170. The wide support and resistance levels suggest a lot of volatility for the day: Support at 1073, 1120, 1149, 1166, and resistance at 1196, 1212, and 1258.5. These are for Sunday, I'll post Monday's levels closer to midnight.
If I read the article right, he's foretelling a drop in the stock markets but I think he's looking out a few weeks. I don't see anything in the near term, I think it will probably be January before there is any kind of correction in the stock market. It will be good to keep a close eye out, as the SP500 could be making a double top.
But the one thing I struggle with is... if gold holds up but the stock market tanks, how much will the gold stocks be affected?
Gold stocks are not yet ready for a disconnect from the S&P. For most of this year gold stocks have a 75% correlation to the S&P while their correlation to gold is around 85%. So just having gold rise is no guarantee of anything with the miners. I think we have to see much higher gold prices and maybe yet another SM tumble before miners start to disconnect. But it is not too early to start buying into some selected juniors or GDXJ on strong dips. I could still see GDXJ and GDX getting whacked by up to 20% but gold bullion at most 5-10%.
Levels for Monday have tightened up. Support at 1134, 1154, 1171, resistance at 1174, 1182.4, 1194, 1214.
Lots of volume tonight though. Just now (11pm MST), there was a wave of selling that took gold down $10 but it seems to be recovering quickly. I might try to play the 1070-1080 cycles if they continue. But either way, there would appear to be a few parties that are dumping gold at 1080 and a bunch of people stepping in to buy it on the dips.
GDX seems to have started a downtrend with TRIX rounding over, +Aroon falling to 60, Boll. bands (20 day) headed sharply down, volume generally declining since early November and W%R past the point of no return. Once GDX has gotten this far along in these indicators the odds are against it pulling out. In mid-Sept the +Aroon (10) did pull back from the 60 line but only very briefly before continuing its descent towards 0. A strong move in gold could pull GDX out assuming the SM hangs tough. The GDX/GLD ratio is not yet confirming a continued downtrend as this ratio is seemingly starting to flatten out.
GLD is still lagging the GDX trends with the Trix not yet rounded over though somewhat flattened. Aroon and W%R have not yet reached a critical point. Could still be more left in the GLD tank.
For the 3rd time in the past 2 months GSR has run up into the 64-65 resistance line. The formation seems to be one of a flat triangle. With this occuring as part of a one year downtrend one would expect a break in the downward direction.
Action overnight kept gold down around 1170, although gold has just now taken off to 1178.
I did end up playing a silver contract (5000oz), buying at 18.20 and selling at 18.30 a couple of times, and I'm going forward with 1 contract now that it's up to 18.40...
Ackerman's latest blog publishes a target of 1334 within the next 4-5 weeks but as soon as 2 weeks.
APMEX is having a decent sale right now on fractional Australian gold.... I picked up a roll of 1/10th oz Australian gold for $10/coin over spot. Not spectacular, but not bad for 1/10th ounce material, IMO.
11/24 COT report showed a huge increase of 25,000 shorts for the gold commercials but a net drop in open interest to 521K. The short to long ratio increased back up to 4.05. On the dollar side the commercials shed a massive 4400 longs while shedding only a couple hundred shorts. Open interest dropped to 40,000. Long to short ratio continued to lower for the umpteeth week to 1.15. Don't see any commercial support for the dollar here.
I think there are some good explanations for the COT report... For speculators, last week was the last week to trade the Dec gold contract, depending on broker. Combine that with the volatility and "fun" that ocurred T-giving night, and I think some longs got spooked and closed their Dec positions and have yet to roll forward to Feb. I wouldn't be surprised if this week shows a surge in open interest.
So I still think gold is ready to move a bit higher for now, probably another $10 to the $1290 area, but this week will probably be mostly a consolidation week. My plan for this week is to try to identify some ranges that I can play.
Support levels for tonight/tomorrow are 1169 and 1176 and resistance is at 1188, 1195 and 1213.6. If gold drops down to 1170 tonight, I think that's a clear and easy spot to buy for a quick $10-20 move or even for longer term holdings.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Silver has just broken through a heavy resistance zone that was formed from early 2008. The remaining last bit of minor resistance is at around $19.50 and then nothing until the 2008 high of near $22. So from here silver has the potential to ride for a while.
Nice move up last night topping out at 1205 (YG) and 1204 (GC) contracts.
I sold 50% of my position around 1195, and now the greed factor is making me want to jump back in before it goes higher.
But the gold charts MUST be exhausted now and due for some consolidation... but the movements and chart activity just looks uber-bullish to me.
Silver took off nicely, hitting $19.20. Not bad a bad gain for 1 day when I bought at $18.20, just wish I had bought more (naturally).
I'm going to look for a pullback to 1190 where I think I'll load up to 80%, I don't see it pulling back any further... and while resistance is up near 1212, I don't see gold getting there today or tonight.
SWEET 5% moves on GDX and GDXJ, IAG and just about every mining stock. Platinum and Palladium doing well... the only thing getting killed (that I watch) is the dollar.
I think that Kitco link defining how much a gold change was due to dollar vs. buying action has some merit. But....what are the underlying calculations? The validity of such an indicator is entirely dependent on the assumptions used. Are they assuming a 100% inverse linear relationship between gold and the dollar? If so, that's entirely wrong. In fact most any statistical forumula used would have huge holes in it. Are they assuming buying action is the amount left over from the dollar calculation or do they have a formula to verify actual demand? Would that be Comex gold futures open interest, GLD inventory, or some other measure? In short, I'm not sure their number is really worth anything. Just recently the gold price went virtually parabolic while the dollar stood nearly still. On other days they can be inversely linear. And on other days they might actually track up together as they did for weeks very early in 2009.
Considering Kitco's John Nadler has made terrible calls on gold since mid-2007 I'm not sure how one could have any faith in a gold monitor of their creation.
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
Comments
So I don't expect much to happen the rest of this holiday week, everything will probably be range bound. But I have to ask, where does the USD go from here?
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
In reviewing the 3 year weekly gold chart the momentum has gone parabolic over the past month and is getting close to reaching the high set back in early 2008. This could break the macd downtrend that Cohodk brought up in his thread. In fact the momentum's rate of change has already exceeded what occurred back in 2007-2008. Cohodk's 45/25/25 long term full stochastic is also now firmly entrenched >80. This is all very similar to gold's move back in late 2007...only stronger. The 2 time frames are nearly identical in all respects. Fwiw the 2009 move is not as far above the moving averages as the 2007-2008 move was. So still some room there.
GSR looks to continue on its way up while GDX/GLD ratio is headed down....bad news for the miners. Most of the 20 day BBs are rolling over now. Usually that multi-week trend has been hard to stop.
weekly gold chart - 3 years
roadrunner
<< <i>Ackerman's morning blog is claiming that the 1174.9 target they had for gold was hit when gold topped at 1174.0 yesterday. I'm on the fence now, I'm not sure what to think here... if I should reduce my positions and wait for the pullback or hope for another surge to 1175. I thought it was coming this morning but it stopped just shy of 1172, and then rolled over hard to 1165 where it is as I write this.
So I don't expect much to happen the rest of this holiday week, everything will probably be range bound. But I have to ask, where does the USD go from here?
Depends which line is broken. If it can get above 76, then the target would be 78.50. A pullback from there that holds above 77 targets 81. If it breaks 75, then target is low 73's. Im not sure sentiment could be any more negative.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What's a "BB"? Thanks.
roadrunner, are you tracking the Van Eck fund, and does it act differently than the miners that you are referring to as having this bad news?
I knew it would happen.
After the bullishness today, I pared back my sell orders before the last surge. I was at about 120%, now I'm at about 90%. I think tonight/Wednesday is going to be great for gold and we should see another push higher, perhaps as high as 1195. I wonder though, if this will be accompanied by a drop of the USD below 75.00?
Support is at 1166.2, 1175 and resistance is at 1180 and 1194. So I think it will be possible and likely to hit 1190.
In the bigger picture, I have got to think that gold is ready for a pullback, and I think the indicator for this will be the USD. If we see USD continue to go sideways, then gold might retract a bit. If we see USD plummet through 75.0, then gold may have more upside. Either way, I'm paring down my position at 1190 or so, but I think I'll keep 25% just in case gold keeps going. In this parabolic move, you never know when it's going to stop.
A Bollinger Band is simply the expected mathematical trading range for a stock based on a multiple of a standard deviation. Typically BB's are charted in multiples of 10 days for daily charts. So 20, 30, 40, etc. are seen fairly often. With that time frame is how much deviation one is looking for. Default values are usually 2 standard deviations. One can plug in whatever they want. When the stock price gets outside of this trading band it increases the probability of a falling back inside or shifting towards the other end of the channel.
I've been watching GDXJ each day. It has been behaving pretty closely to GDX for what it's worth. But there are a number of the 38 stocks in GDXJ that are doing their own thing apart from the trend in BB's. The major stocks in GDX seem to be pretty consistent with the shape of their trading band widths. The miners may have reacted weakly today and end of yesterday but gold making new highs will probably reverse that trend unless the SM dumps, which seems unlikely as money is flowing into everything but the dollar.
$1177....there it goes again!
roadrunner
To the moon Alice!
$1200 Friday......
where are you guys trading i know metals but what sign's what accounts or with what type
of accounts and can i set one up on line and who or what is the best priced
and easiest to work with
thanks
Online, I use Optionsxpress but there are not the cheapest but I like them A LOT.
Some of my trader friends love TradeStation and Think or Swim.
ETrade should be fine also. Good luck. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
on these
I use OXPS only because I have a separate account that I want to keep funds separate. Their commissions are a bit high, but I did get them to lower them due to my trading activity levels.
Gold at 1184 again... USD at 74.65...
I tend to trade fut's in most commodites including grains. I DT and ST miner's and currencies.
All of the sites I suggested have virtual practice trading accounts. I strongly discourage DT or ST trading any of the instruments above until you garner a ton of experience. When trading futures or forex you are trading against some of the brightest minds (myself exluded) both human and non-human -trading programs
On a sidebar the Swiss franc is now at par with the dollar. Cando and Aussie next IMO. A few months away.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
With some of the recent news and the fact that the USD breach of the 75.0 level was decisive and while it could bounce back a bit, it could very well keep going Thurs and Fri... although I expect it to be pretty quiet. It's tough to make calls here because gold isn't behaving like "it's supposed to."
In the process of getting rid of the Dec contracts, I've pared back my gold positions to 50% and I'll probably pare back more at 1200. I had thought 1200 was going to be the peak for this initial move from 900's, but I'm more and more convinced that 1300 is in the cards possibly and probably by the end of the year. If there is a pullback/consolidation I don't expect it to be huge... maybe $20-30 or so.
In talking to a full-time gold dealer he says the supply of anything in gold coinage right now is very thin. He has lots of big orders from his regulars in slabbed or bullion gold. The problem is finding the coins. $20 Libs in MS grades continue to be the leader. The MS63 $20 Libs continue to match the MS65 Saints dollar for dollar. Now both at $2600/$2700 levels.
Thomson on trading the junior miners
A good read from Thomson on tactics for buying the junior miners esp. for those considering GDXJ.
roadrunner
If so, the damage will be over pretty quickly, then back on course.
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Still, As far as where gold goes from here I'm not sure what conclusions to draw since the drop and recovery happened so fast. The speed and extent of the recovery is very bullish. I'm still not sure whether to take the recent action as an anomaly or signs of more weekness to come. What does everyone else think?
I'd have to say that the banksters took advantage of this "temporary weakness" to push gold down a bit further to clear out some shorts while they could. Gold has been ripe for some sort of meaningful drop for weeks now so this may have played into those fears. I took the day off to bring a car to the shop and hit a coin show about 1-1/2 hours away. I see that I missed another good opportunity to get some GDXJ shares on the cheap. How many more chances will there be? The gold stocks did appear to be rounding over so maybe this was some extra momentum to kick them over the edge for a while. Something tells me that if you didn't buy on the dip today you lost out on a good opportunity.
The Dubai thing is peanuts compared to the mess the world banksters have in other illiquid assets, but nonetheless a fine opportunity to whip Dubai and blame them for what ails us even if their total debt is nearly meaningless. Madoff's investors had a similar-sized loss. I think it was a well-manufactured head fake either on Dubai's part to get better debt financing terms....or they were instructed by other players to help take down the world SM's for one day to conveniently lower gold prices before the month ended. This well designed whallop while the US markets were closed for Holiday may have been the only way the US banksters could unload their shorts before another leg up. I hope it lasts to until early next week so I can start reloading on junior gold miners. The unusual strength in 2 year treasuries counter to the climbing SM for the week leading up to this smack down indicated someone knew what was going to happen with Dubai and positioned accordingly.
Silver looks to be winding down it's consolidation after restesting the IH&S formation neckline at $17.70. A sizeable gap still exists at $17.40+. Maybe that gets filled early next week then off to the races again as a new month starts. Same pattern as September, October and November. Rinse....lather....repeat. If a larger percentage of Comex gold/silver contracts get tapped for delivery that will be a big boost for the metals.
Some interesting long term gold charts from Rambus/Xiphos
roadrunner
This article has Jim Rogers recomending silver and palladium. I have to say that I agree... I think that from this point Ag and Pd probably have better potential percentage-wise than gold. If I hadn't been in holiday mode and bloated with food on Friday during all of the excitement, I would have opened some silver positions and bought more GDXJ. I've read and observed that there is an approx 4 month lag of commodities relative to gold, and that means that commodities are about ready to take off. I'm not giving up on gold though, that will still be my primary trading vehicle. I suppose platinum's good as well, but Ag and Pd are so much cheaper.
Not a lot of articles out yet talking about where things are headed. I found it interesting that gold shot up about $5 in the few minutes of the session. I think that bodes well for Monday... someone was anxious to get themselves in before the weekend.
A couple of things to consider:
1. The media is reporting pretty good news related to Black Friday and shopping. This should boost the SM and PMs.
2. The USD rebounded back up to 75.0... although this level is now resistance, it will be interesting to see if USD will come back.
3. The USD may see some more strength this week due to more "flight to safety" - unclear if this will affect POG
Overall, I think the positive black friday news will push gold back up in to the 1190's. I'm still not sure if we'll see gold much over $1200 soon, but I don't see demand for gold waning anytime soon. I do think premiums on physical gold will continue to increase.
Bearish Visions
roadrunner
At open the market was nuts with ltos of volatitility. It's calmed down for now, but there appears to be solid support at 1170. The wide support and resistance levels suggest a lot of volatility for the day: Support at 1073, 1120, 1149, 1166, and resistance at 1196, 1212, and 1258.5.
These are for Sunday, I'll post Monday's levels closer to midnight.
If I read the article right, he's foretelling a drop in the stock markets but I think he's looking out a few weeks. I don't see anything in the near term, I think it will probably be January before there is any kind of correction in the stock market. It will be good to keep a close eye out, as the SP500 could be making a double top.
But the one thing I struggle with is... if gold holds up but the stock market tanks, how much will the gold stocks be affected?
roadrunner
Support at 1134, 1154, 1171, resistance at 1174, 1182.4, 1194, 1214.
Lots of volume tonight though. Just now (11pm MST), there was a wave of selling that took gold down $10 but it seems to be recovering quickly. I might try to play the 1070-1080 cycles if they continue. But either way, there would appear to be a few parties that are dumping gold at 1080 and a bunch of people stepping in to buy it on the dips.
GLD chart
GDX seems to have started a downtrend with TRIX rounding over, +Aroon falling to 60, Boll. bands (20 day) headed sharply down, volume generally declining since early November and W%R past the point of no return. Once GDX has gotten this far along in these indicators the odds are against it pulling out. In mid-Sept the +Aroon (10) did pull back from the 60 line but only very briefly before continuing its descent towards 0. A strong move in gold could pull GDX out assuming the SM hangs tough. The GDX/GLD ratio is not yet confirming a continued downtrend as this ratio is seemingly starting to flatten out.
GLD is still lagging the GDX trends with the Trix not yet rounded over though somewhat flattened. Aroon and W%R have not yet reached a critical point. Could still be more left in the GLD tank.
For the 3rd time in the past 2 months GSR has run up into the 64-65 resistance line. The formation seems to be one of a flat triangle. With this occuring as part of a one year downtrend one would expect a break in the downward direction.
roadrunner
<< <i>GDX chart
GLD chart
roadrunner >>
OK, Cohodk.
Action overnight kept gold down around 1170, although gold has just now taken off to 1178.
I did end up playing a silver contract (5000oz), buying at 18.20 and selling at 18.30 a couple of times, and I'm going forward with 1 contract now that it's up to 18.40...
Ackerman's latest blog publishes a target of 1334 within the next 4-5 weeks but as soon as 2 weeks.
APMEX is having a decent sale right now on fractional Australian gold.... I picked up a roll of 1/10th oz Australian gold for $10/coin over spot. Not spectacular, but not bad for 1/10th ounce material, IMO.
roadrunner
So I still think gold is ready to move a bit higher for now, probably another $10 to the $1290 area, but this week will probably be mostly a consolidation week. My plan for this week is to try to identify some ranges that I can play.
Support levels for tonight/tomorrow are 1169 and 1176 and resistance is at 1188, 1195 and 1213.6. If gold drops down to 1170 tonight, I think that's a clear and easy spot to buy for a quick $10-20 move or even for longer term holdings.
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
roadrunner
I sold 50% of my position around 1195, and now the greed factor is making me want to jump back in before it goes higher.
But the gold charts MUST be exhausted now and due for some consolidation... but the movements and chart activity just looks uber-bullish to me.
Silver took off nicely, hitting $19.20. Not bad a bad gain for 1 day when I bought at $18.20, just wish I had bought more (naturally).
I'm going to look for a pullback to 1190 where I think I'll load up to 80%, I don't see it pulling back any further... and while resistance is up near 1212, I don't see gold getting there today or tonight.
SWEET 5% moves on GDX and GDXJ, IAG and just about every mining stock. Platinum and Palladium doing well... the only thing getting killed (that I watch) is the dollar.
Hi Ho Silver!
kitco-gold index chart
Considering Kitco's John Nadler has made terrible calls on gold since mid-2007 I'm not sure how one could have any faith in a gold monitor of their creation.
New Month? Yup.....I do this every month.
roadrunner
and plain old demand i guess
at least thats what i see
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)