fc: "impressive run so far. my main concern is why does silver not seem to be keeping pace?"
I'd been wondering the same thing, too. In years past there was always the talk about silver being the industrial metal. Well, industry took a major hit and economic cooldown lately, hasn't it? Why wouldn't silver now lag a bit behind gold, instead of making a concurrent run like it did in years past? Industrial demand just may not be what it was before? Heck, I don't know!
The USD is on fire today, rallying back up to 75.68, so 75.0 was definitely the bottom... of course, now I think the USD is free to go back down again. To stay in the downward channel, the USD must stay below just over 76.
In light of the dollar rally, gold is holding up REALLY well. I guess there are those days where the dollar gold down and gold doesn't go up, we are not getting the opposite of that, which is nice.
I'm conflicted about the future direction of gold from here for the immediate term. The USD is only about .30 from making what will probably be a top, so that could mean more upside for gold to come. Stocks are on fire but SP500 up against 1100 which it will need to break through decisively.
Support is at 1110, resistance is at 1114.5, 1122.8, and 1127.4.
I think if I had to call it, I'd say gold is probably going to be range bound for a couple of days... probably between 1110 and 1125, but the charts to have energy to keep going up... perhaps that energy is being spent bucking the dollar strength.
Edited to add: Todays' move brought gold back down into the channel here at ~1108.
<< <i>Gold - is treated like currency. Why more popular too.
Silver- is thought of as a commodity. >>
Commodities are said to follow gold with about a 4 month lag. If that's the case, then commodities will start to rise right at the end of the year. I'm guessing that that's when silver will really start to take off.
my non professional prediction is that gold will go up and up --- 2 to 5 steps up and then 1 or 2 back has been the trend of late. In the long run tho, even if gold does go way way down - you still have your paper money converted to something to pay your property taxes with. 'If' the dollar were to crash, as some say & even if gold were to go way down -- it will still be the most precious thing to have, except for things like toilet paper, medicine, booze, cigs, fuel, guns and of course -- seeds and food. With a dollar crash, gold will be like it was in the olden dayze ... kind of. I think it's good for everyone to have enough to pay their property taxes with for a few years.
Just curious - what happened in the 'great depression' when people had no money to pay their taxes with? Did the .gov just confiscate all that property?? (well, and they confiscated gold too - so how could ppl 'legally' pay their taxes with gold, if it was confiscated). Your da*ed if you do and da*ed if you don't. *sigh*
My take here is that gold is just going through a much-needed pullback after a blistering move higher. Gold was and really still is at the top of its upward channel. So I expect the pullback here to be either to the bottom of the channel ~1060 in a few days, or a fib 38.2% retracement to 1086.
I pretty much sold everything around 1110 yesterday, I'm down to a 10% position. I will probably move back in to a 70% position at 1086.
Some of the market timing model gurus are looking for a dollar top today and a gold bottom on Monday. So, I think this points to 1086 for a near term low.
I also think stocks need to pullback as well, so this weakness will also keep gold from going anywhere.
Wow, what a turnaround. Gold is looking very bullish once again.
Now I am fighting the temptation to jump back in and the fear of missing the next leg up.
I'm going to do things differently this time and just hold on and be patient. Maybe we won't get the pullback like I was expecting, but I'm trying to tell myself that patience is the key here.
I still kind of think that the recent dip to 1102 was a warning of more volatility to come; however, I just continue to see overwhelming demand for gold pushing things higher.
I just have to keep telling myself how sweet it will be though if I can stay out and get back in at much lower price.
I was looking for more swings thurs/fri because of december contracts on Monday... paired with Obama's asian trip...
I heard Bob Chapman talk about borrowing 401k funds to purchase physical pms... I was a little surprised he would talk about such a trade; in as much as such talk about using credit cards for the same thing was greeted so poorly. I'll give it some thought over the weekend... but I'm moving in a few weeks and I doubt I would accept that type of exposure during a transition period.
I had to drain the majority of 'supplies' before the 'move'... I see the replacement as being the top priority AGAIN.
btw: I bought way way too much calorie packed food... too much sodium... I've gained some ten pounds over the past couple of months eating that stuff. Just a word a caution.
Pull back, pull back, wherefore art thou pullback?.....still waiting for something significant as well. Feeling like Rip Van Winkle. Gold stocks almost seem like they want to pull back but they continue to hang. Generic gold in the $10's and $20's continues to be on FIRE! The smaller denominations are starting to move as well though not as much. The Balty show was unreal for the barbarous relic.
COT report ----------------------
Nearly the same as last week. About the same number of longs and shorts added to gold and silver. The gold ratio dropped from 4.09 to 3.87. But note the huge increase in open interest from 493K to 530K. The commercials tacked on 20% more longs than shorts.
The turnaround today was shocking, but not really given my typical luck. Hardly a mention of the treasury auctions on here, I didn't realize they were going on. They didn't affect PMs much at all. Auction results were typical - lots of interest and no shortage of buyers and all of that.
I'm in the dilemna zone, I really don't know if I should get back in or not, but I am leaning toward getting back in. I think that we are definitely in the early stages of going parabolic, and perhaps that's why the dip to 1102 didn't go any further. Watching the tape gold showed really nothing but strength... but the dip had me worried while it was happening. If we are truly in the parabolic zone though, the markets don't behave as we normally expect. I'm guessing the lows are so low, and the highs come frequently and often.
So what really concerns me here is that there have been two ~21 day "humps" in the upward channel, and it looks like we're on the third. If we are on the third, then we *should* be in for about 8 days of generally downward action. The only alternative is a decisive breakout above the upward channel! In a normaly market, I'd say no way, but in this market, I guess it's possible. Just like we say here all of the time, nothing goes straight up... so where is that pullback? This is why I got out. At least I did VERY well, so I have no complaints capturing profits. It's only greed that makes me want to time and play a pullback here.
I think I'll watch the tape when gold opens Sunday night and see how it's going. I might try to re-establish a 50% position on a pullback to 1110-1115 and bail if there is much weakness below 1110. I'm sure I'll end up buying a lot higher, but my crystal ball is cloudy. And I'll feel really stupid if the pullback to 1080's happens right after I get back in - that would be typical.
What sucks is I will be travelling Mon - Fri, at least I can trade and monitor things on my Blackberry.
I'm not sure if GDXJ has been mentioned ( i've been tardy in my reading of this thread) but it's been trading for three days.
Gold/silver junior miners basket ETF...........still trying to wrap my head around what's in this thing..... keep in your back pocket I guess.
GDXJ’s underlying index by weighting are Canada (62.6%), United States (21.8%), Australia (11.2%), South Africa (2.4%), China (1.3%) and United Kingdom (0.7%).
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Regarding GDXJ, now that it's been trading for a week, I plan to buy in on Monday. I opened a brokerage account to get 15k FF miles, so I figured this would be a good use for that account. It's going to be a buy-and-hold deal for me, at least for the 6 months that I have to keep the funds in there.
Hokay you got me. I saw the thread title and thought people were actually trading gold and silver with each other on this forum. lol I have absolutely no idea what you guys mean about angels, YY charts, GSR, and a lot of other acronyms but it looks interesting.
Anyway back to the BST but I will attempt to follow this thread and try to make sense of the banter as I am always willing to learn new things. Just a suggestion but if someone that is well versed in trading banter could post a sticky thet contains some glossery of the different acronyms that would really help interested yet clueless people like me follow this thread. No need if I am the only clueless person though!
<< <i>I was a little surprised he would talk about such a trade; in as much as such talk about using credit cards for the same thing was greeted so poorly. >>
I guess it depends on what you buy. Best thing I ever did was max out my cc's to buy 08w buff fractionals and 08w $10 uncirculated age's from the mint. I would have even taken out my 401k if I could have lol.
edited to add: I agree with using cc's to purchase bullion provided the cc has a reasonable interest rate. Gold doesn't depreciate, it's very liquid, and it provides a hedge against the current 24hr fiat currency printing presses. Also it seems that cc's are being taken away from people that don't use them so if you maintain balances they can't take them away right? And what better way to have a balance than with purchasing an increasing valuable asset such as gold? The cc interest - the underlying gold value = a good hedge against financial armaggedon IMO. Plus with lower rate cc's you can even come out with a profit!
GDXJ’s underlying index by weighting are Canada (62.6%), United States (21.8%), Australia (11.2%), South Africa (2.4%), China (1.3%) and United Kingdom (0.7%).
I'd like to know the % marketcap vs. mine physical location rather than the country where the company is incorporated. I don't believe that anything near 95% of them are in perfectly safe jurisdictions.
GSR still looks like it has momentum going in the up direction though in many respects it seems to be waning.
I wouldn't bet the CC on gold's performance. Nothing says it can't turn around for 6-12 months at a whack and bleed you down. If you want to more quickly learn the trading banter/lingo read the kitco forums threads on a daily basis. You can go back as many months as you like to quickly come up to speed. They post a lot of charts to help one along. I recommend Quad G's Major Market Movements thread.
That was one heck of a purchase... I'm glad it worked out for you, and in fact I think you were a little early in your call -- i.e. much of the 'use your credit' debate happened late december early January.
I had a slightly different take on the subject... I just believe(d) that some people worked really hard on their credit rating; they looked at their available credit as a form of INSURANCE, or UTILITY. To have that 'value' taken away because of say the zip code you reside... just seemed wrong to me. By transferring credit to physical pm's, it was/is like taking the custodian position for your credit... at a cost or profit... where ever the cards landed.
Bob Chapman, I think was trying to make a different point, depending on the options one had in their 401k... I was surprised in that it sounded like he was giving financial advice, which he usually tries to stay away from, except for the normal 'I don't give financial advice... but I'll tell you what I'm doing'.
He believes things have gotten worse... not better... so maybe thats where he is really coming from... sorta a 'last call' type of thing.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Again, I ask.........does anyone know what a "Swiss Chair" chart is? >>
There are probably no replies because no one knows. Here is a picture of one, so I'm guessing a chart pattern would resemble that shape. >>
Swiss chairs "office types" have very high backs and have distintive L shape. No idea what context this was used in.............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Swiss chair pattern------------------are you sure you don't mean Swiss "Stair" pattern ?
That is a orderly stairstep pattern upwards in the case of gold..................... It goes up...........consolidates...............goes up................consolidates.................goes up.................consolidates...................goes up.......................etc etc etc.......MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Thanks for the guide post roadrunner. I will start the arduous journey on the yellow brick road to learn the trading banter. hmmm yellow brick road... I must say, somehow that fits the personality of this forum lol. Happy trading!
<< <i>Hey Justacommeman that unemployment link needs it's own thread. So everyone will see it. Scary indeed! >>
In all honesty, it's kind of off topic... it's relavent to trading and the economy, but not to PM's directly...
So tonight gold is on fire, having set a new ATH of 1127.9. Figures, since I'm not in...
Now I've got the dilemna of jumping in here at 1125 or hoping for a dip to 1110 or so.
Support is at 1108.3 and 1114, so a dip down to there might be likely but the action looks really bullish here in the first half hour. Of course, it always looks that way when you're not in it.
Not sure if you guys like reading about my personal torment as I play the markets... I like sharing it a little bit, I'm guessing everyone goes through the same thing.
Obama must not have done a good job on his trip, the dollar keeps falling.
It looked too bullish for me so I had to buy back in. I'm up to 50% position at $1225. At the moment, gold is up to $1130. It's looking to me like gold is going to break above 1130 tonight or tomorrow.
The USD is on the brink of breaking down through 75.0, and gold is above its trading channel. SP500 is on the brink of a breakout over 1100.
My only battle now is when to add more... With R3 at 1147-1152 there's a lot of room for gold to run on a break over 1130. Maybe greed is getting the best of me here.
After selling some stuff in the past 1-2 weeks I decided to pull in the horns and sit tight. That was a good call because I came very close to dumping a quantity of 65 saints at $2160-$2170...right before they launched to $2450 wholesale within 3-4 days. Stewart Thomson said he wasn't selling any physical gold in this climate. So I took him up on that. And if they do fall, they'll be back soon enough. But I did get totally faked out of my gold stock positions after once again loading up near the very bottom 2 weeks ago. 2nd or 3rd time this year it happened. Just listened to too much noise from the stock doom & gloomers who saw a big dollar move right around the corner that was going to smash commodities. I feel Clif Droke's call of the 10 yr cycle peak carrying the SM until the end of the year makes the most sense. It's exactly what most expect not to happen. Gold has kept most everyone from getting back on since it broke out and pulled back to $1026. I can see it allowing people on at a $25-$125 higher level, and then pulling back to confound them. They won't ever get back on again.
The gurus have been calling for a turn date the 3rd week of November. Most felt it was going to be a low. Now it may indeed be a high. There is still time to take a week off starting mid next week. That would coincide with futures expiring on the 23rd. It would give the banks a chance to close out some shorts and then begin another run at the start of a new month....just like Sept, Oct, and November.
A couple of possibilities... 1. The begining of a new, more aggresive incline or channel 2. There are 2 humps plus one more forming, each larger than the one before. In which case, gold has probably about topped out for the near term. 3. I've drawn the channel wrong and we have an upward ascending triangle, which is typically bearish I believe... 4. I've drawn the channel wrong and there's something I'm not seeing.
If #1 is true, I'd say we're unquestionably in a parabolic move where things like this are possible.
BTW, the gap-up today can probably be ignored. The LIFFE opens an hour after the Comex. The comex chart does not have a gap.
That's a pretty solid channel there with LOTS of touches on both treadlines............They eventually have to breakout or breakdown and form a new one..............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'd vote for a channel breakout in the making as well. Next major stopping point is JS's $1224. With a GSR of 61 that would correspond with a silver level of $20.
<< <i>I'd vote for a channel breakout in the making as well. Next major stopping point is JS's $1224. With a GSR of 61 that would correspond with a silver level of $20. >>
Silver's having a remarkable day today though. I picked up two contracts last night on a whim at 17.68, and it hit 18.33 earlier, a gain of .65. Unbelievable.
I think this is the place to go in with a 120% position, but I don't have the balls to do it... I'm at about 75% now, would like to see a pullback to add but I don't think I'm going to get it.
<Silver's having a remarkable day today though. I picked up two contracts last night on a whim at 17.68, and it hit 18.33 earlier, a gain of .65. Unbelievable.>
nice trade. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Silver's having a remarkable day today though. I picked up two contracts last night on a whim at 17.68, and it hit 18.33 earlier, a gain of .65. Unbelievable
Nice hit. You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
These elitest commentator's on CNBC just can't stand the fact that gold is at an all-time high..........I bothers them to no end
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history! (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
What do you base that on? Just the fact that today was up huge? If that's the reasoning, I wouldn't be so sure.
I'm traveling so I haven't had a chance to study anything. Coin dealers are reporting that the phones are ringing off the hook - more than usual - today. I think the buy switch is turned on. I think the 1135 area will provide solid support. I'm on board for $1200 gold by Thanksgiving.
And wow, how about platinum and palladium? Up $57 and $18 respectively. WOW.
I think that for the moment, the bull is loose and running. It's going to be a wild week.
Even lowly copper ran up some 5% today before pulling back which is nuts. Yeah, this could be a blow off top of the run from $931 but it doesn't seem like there is going to be the nice big FAT pullback that most timers/traders have been figuring on so that they can get back in cheap. Whoever has helped push gold up this high probably has no intention of letting others back in and paying a lot less than they did.
This will will prove important week for the dollar/euro, equities, gold and silver. All are at major inflection points.
It seems like this has been the situation every month going back a ways now and the dollar keeps disappointing. Today the dollar touched below it's previous yearly low which is not a good omen...plenty of room to drop down to the bottom of it's 8 month channel. Today Bob Hoye put out a warning of a gold overbought technical blow-off in progress, the first in 22 months. Maybe so. But Hoye also was figuring on a larger pull back in October/November and a fairly strong dollar counter rally, neither of which have really occured. One by one all the top and bottom callers are getting blown away much the way they have been for months in the S&P.
The GSR liquidity index has broken down a bit and has fallen completely below the 20/30 dma...first time in 2 weeks. It would appear to me that today's drop nearly cements the overall turn downwards in the GSR. The RSI and Stoch have had neg divergences for weeks now. Momentum indictor Williams%R (as well as CCI/StochRsi) are heading quickly for the basement and have been showing neg divergences as well. Once heading down that hard they usually don't turn back up until they've vacationed a while. The ADX has been in a general downtrend since mid-September. Aroon 10/15 (days since last high or low) is stretched to the max which is usually when the return leg begins. The RSI 14 line has broken below the uptrend line of the past 2 months. Not much bullish to report on GSR. It could be signaling the resuming of the march back down towards the mid-50's. The dollar making a new yearly low certainly only aids the cause.
GDXJ jumped today not allowing an easy entry. I didn't feel comfortable last week getting in thinking that the silvers were shaky and many of the goldies were close to recent highs. But as it usually goes silver blasted off and the goldies inched up further. Maybe a better entry point later this week if gold bounces down to the $1114-$1120 area for at least a semblance of a retrace.
one day doesn't make a trend BUT the dollar came off of the mat strongly today and gold is holding up like a champ. (so far)
Maybe, just maybe gold is the "au currant" preferred currency of the world......probably just a wild thought.....MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>one day doesn't make a trend BUT the dollar came off of the mat strongly today and gold is holding up like a champ. (so far)
Maybe, just maybe gold is the "au currant" preferred currency of the world......probably just a wild thought.....MJ >>
Quite amazing that the HUGH rise in the dollar hasn't tanked PM's. I think more people/countries have caught on to the paper game and they're in no rush to sell in this enviorment. I'd hate to be a big short right now.
Quite amazing that the HUGH rise in the dollar hasn't tanked PM's. I think more people/countries have caught on to the paper game and they're in no rush to sell in this enviorment. I'd hate to be a big short right now.
Wow! ttown, you're right - if you go to Sinclair's site, you can see both the dollar index and gold next to each other. This is the first time in recent memory that the two haven't moved inversely to each other.
Looks "significant" to me.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Even lowly copper ran up some 5% today before pulling back which is nuts. Yeah, this could be a blow off top of the run from $931 but it doesn't seem like there is going to be the nice big FAT pullback that most timers/traders have been figuring on so that they can get back in cheap. Whoever has helped push gold up this high probably has no intention of letting others back in and paying a lot less than they did.
This will will prove important week for the dollar/euro, equities, gold and silver. All are at major inflection points.
It seems like this has been the situation every month going back a ways now and the dollar keeps disappointing. Today the dollar touched below it's previous yearly low which is not a good omen...plenty of room to drop down to the bottom of it's 8 month channel. Today Bob Hoye put out a warning of a gold overbought technical blow-off in progress, the first in 22 months. Maybe so. But Hoye also was figuring on a larger pull back in October/November and a fairly strong dollar counter rally, neither of which have really occured. One by one all the top and bottom callers are getting blown away much the way they have been for months in the S&P.
The GSR liquidity index has broken down a bit and has fallen completely below the 20/30 dma...first time in 2 weeks. It would appear to me that today's drop nearly cements the overall turn downwards in the GSR. The RSI and Stoch have had neg divergences for weeks now. Momentum indictor Williams%R (as well as CCI/StochRsi) are heading quickly for the basement and have been showing neg divergences as well. Once heading down that hard they usually don't turn back up until they've vacationed a while. The ADX has been in a general downtrend since mid-September. Aroon 10/15 (days since last high or low) is stretched to the max which is usually when the return leg begins. The RSI 14 line has broken below the uptrend line of the past 2 months. Not much bullish to report on GSR. It could be signaling the resuming of the march back down towards the mid-50's. The dollar making a new yearly low certainly only aids the cause.
GDXJ jumped today not allowing an easy entry. I didn't feel comfortable last week getting in thinking that the silvers were shaky and many of the goldies were close to recent highs. But as it usually goes silver blasted off and the goldies inched up further. Maybe a better entry point later this week if gold bounces down to the $1114-$1120 area for at least a semblance of a retrace.
roadrunner >>
A trend is a trend until it isnt.
We have had strong moves in currencies today as I expected. Unlike mountain climbing, you dont know when you are at the top until you fall off a cliff or have retraced 25% of your ascent. All you can say is "Wow, the view sure is nice from here."
Stewart Thomson was a buyer of the dollar until the last week or two. I assume at this point he is out. He had no kind words for the dollar charts. His weekly and monthly charts tend to support continuing commodities strength and dollar weakness. He doesn't mind being in the 3% minority on where the dollar is probably headed. He's fully expecting a gold pull back in the very near future....but as an opportunity to get further on board.
I'm still in Asia doing a little trading. At 6:27am EST they are carrying gold shorts out on stretchers.....MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Trends continued in the same direction once again. The gold commercials added more longs, increased OI by 2600 contracts and lowered the S-L ratio to 3.81 from 3.87. The banks are just hanging on hoping this ends so they can get out of some shorts.
The dollar saw the same trend but it accelerated. The L-S ratio dropped from 1.67 down to 1.21 as 3600 shorts were added to bring OI interest to 42K, the highest it's been this year. The ratio has been dropping for weeks. Not very indicative of a coming bull run in the dollar.
Some good charts in the above link. In particular gold vs. other currencies is getting close to completing a base cup formation. Next step would likely be a rejection from the resistance line to form the handle.
Back from travels, gold is looking bullish as ever, closing the week at just a few dollars below the ATH. The week ended up being a consolidation week, and I think the pattern is consolidated now and ready for the next move higher. I'm seeing everything from 1162 to 1175 as the next step up. All of this is amazing considering the dollar has recovered a bit this week.
I am 100% convinced that gold is in a speculative rally hyperbolic phase, so the problem is that gold isn't going to behave just how we expect it to. When we think it's out of energy, it will push higher. And inevitably, there will be some quick and steep pullbacks which may be hard to see coming.
I had a 100% position but sold 25% at the end of day around 1151. Not sure if I will regret this or not. Now sure how the vote on healthcare bill debate today will or will not affect gold or how it will go. I will buy back on any pullback Sun night when the markets reopen.
The USD just doesn't look good. It's approaching the top of the downward channel again at about 75.7. The range between support at 75.0 is getting narrow, and I just see the dollar breaking through 75 decisively, which will send gold up further. We could be on the verge of a BIG daily move, $50-100 if this happens.
At the same time, I have to remain cautious of a steep and sudden, but quick pullback that I know is coming... I just don't know when.
The action tonight is highly bullish. Regretting my sale Friday at close, but I did restore positions just below 1160 tonight. Of course, I wouldn't be regretting the sale if things had gone the other way.
The market is just crazy at the moment... Even with gold at 1166, I think there is still more upside for Monday.
I see resistance at 1187, 1173.6, 1169, and support at 1160 and 1155.
There are some writers out there predicting 1200 by Thanksgiving. I think it's pretty optimistic and I wouldn't bet on it myself, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
Went and splurged a bit buying physical this weekend picking up a few more MS62/63 Libs, Saints, and Indians before the bargains on the bay disappear. There wasn't a lot to choose from (that was priced good), but I bought everything that was priced attractively after Bing cashback. It feels good to convert the paper gold profits to physical gold.
I think gold is going to top out short term here for gold at ~1175-1180. There will probably be another attempt on this level Tues or Wed. I'm going to use that occassion to sell all of my December contracts and convert to Feb contracts, but I'll reduce my holdings to about 50% and look for a small pullback here. I'm not hoping for anything over 1175 really. Ackerman had called the 1174.5 level, so that could turn out to be accurate.
Support is at 1159, 1166, with resistance at 1173.5 and 1181.
Comments
be keeping pace?"
I'd been wondering the same thing, too. In years past there was always the talk about silver being the industrial metal. Well, industry took a major hit and economic cooldown lately, hasn't it? Why wouldn't silver now lag a bit behind gold, instead of making a concurrent run like it did in years past? Industrial demand just may not be what it was before? Heck, I don't know!
In light of the dollar rally, gold is holding up REALLY well. I guess there are those days where the dollar gold down and gold doesn't go up, we are not getting the opposite of that, which is nice.
I'm conflicted about the future direction of gold from here for the immediate term. The USD is only about .30 from making what will probably be a top, so that could mean more upside for gold to come. Stocks are on fire but SP500 up against 1100 which it will need to break through decisively.
Support is at 1110, resistance is at 1114.5, 1122.8, and 1127.4.
I think if I had to call it, I'd say gold is probably going to be range bound for a couple of days... probably between 1110 and 1125, but the charts to have energy to keep going up... perhaps that energy is being spent bucking the dollar strength.
Edited to add: Todays' move brought gold back down into the channel here at ~1108.
Silver- is thought of as a commodity.
<< <i>Gold - is treated like currency. Why more popular too.
Silver- is thought of as a commodity. >>
Commodities are said to follow gold with about a 4 month lag. If that's the case, then commodities will start to rise right at the end of the year. I'm guessing that that's when silver will really start to take off.
Just curious - what happened in the 'great depression' when people had no money to pay their taxes with? Did the .gov just confiscate all that property?? (well, and they confiscated gold too - so how could ppl 'legally' pay their taxes with gold, if it was confiscated). Your da*ed if you do and da*ed if you don't. *sigh*
I pretty much sold everything around 1110 yesterday, I'm down to a 10% position. I will probably move back in to a 70% position at 1086.
Some of the market timing model gurus are looking for a dollar top today and a gold bottom on Monday. So, I think this points to 1086 for a near term low.
I also think stocks need to pullback as well, so this weakness will also keep gold from going anywhere.
Now I am fighting the temptation to jump back in and the fear of missing the next leg up.
I'm going to do things differently this time and just hold on and be patient. Maybe we won't get the pullback like I was expecting, but I'm trying to tell myself that patience is the key here.
I still kind of think that the recent dip to 1102 was a warning of more volatility to come; however, I just continue to see overwhelming demand for gold pushing things higher.
I just have to keep telling myself how sweet it will be though if I can stay out and get back in at much lower price.
I heard Bob Chapman talk about borrowing 401k funds to purchase physical pms... I was a little surprised he would talk about such a trade; in as much as such talk about using credit cards for the same thing was greeted so poorly. I'll give it some thought over the weekend... but I'm moving in a few weeks and I doubt I would accept that type of exposure during a transition period.
I had to drain the majority of 'supplies' before the 'move'... I see the replacement as being the top priority AGAIN.
btw: I bought way way too much calorie packed food... too much sodium... I've gained some ten pounds over the past couple of months eating that stuff. Just a word a caution.
COT report ----------------------
Nearly the same as last week. About the same number of longs and shorts added to gold and silver. The gold ratio dropped from 4.09 to 3.87. But note the huge increase in open interest from 493K to 530K. The commercials tacked on 20% more longs than shorts.
roadrunner
I'm in the dilemna zone, I really don't know if I should get back in or not, but I am leaning toward getting back in. I think that we are definitely in the early stages of going parabolic, and perhaps that's why the dip to 1102 didn't go any further. Watching the tape gold showed really nothing but strength... but the dip had me worried while it was happening. If we are truly in the parabolic zone though, the markets don't behave as we normally expect. I'm guessing the lows are so low, and the highs come frequently and often.
So what really concerns me here is that there have been two ~21 day "humps" in the upward channel, and it looks like we're on the third. If we are on the third, then we *should* be in for about 8 days of generally downward action. The only alternative is a decisive breakout above the upward channel! In a normaly market, I'd say no way, but in this market, I guess it's possible. Just like we say here all of the time, nothing goes straight up... so where is that pullback? This is why I got out. At least I did VERY well, so I have no complaints capturing profits. It's only greed that makes me want to time and play a pullback here.
I think I'll watch the tape when gold opens Sunday night and see how it's going. I might try to re-establish a 50% position on a pullback to 1110-1115 and bail if there is much weakness below 1110. I'm sure I'll end up buying a lot higher, but my crystal ball is cloudy. And I'll feel really stupid if the pullback to 1080's happens right after I get back in - that would be typical.
What sucks is I will be travelling Mon - Fri, at least I can trade and monitor things on my Blackberry.
Gold/silver junior miners basket ETF...........still trying to wrap my head around what's in this thing..... keep in your back pocket I guess.
GDXJ’s underlying index by weighting are Canada (62.6%), United States (21.8%), Australia (11.2%), South Africa (2.4%), China (1.3%) and United Kingdom (0.7%).
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Again, I ask.........does anyone know what a "Swiss Chair" chart is? >>
There are probably no replies because no one knows. Here is a picture of one, so I'm guessing a chart pattern would resemble that shape.
I saw the thread title and thought people were actually trading gold and silver with each other on this forum. lol
I have absolutely no idea what you guys mean about angels, YY charts, GSR, and a lot of other acronyms but it looks interesting.
Anyway back to the BST but I will attempt to follow this thread and try to make sense of the banter as I am always willing to learn new things. Just a suggestion but if someone that is well versed in trading banter could post a sticky thet contains some glossery of the different acronyms that would really help interested yet clueless people like me follow this thread. No need if I am the only clueless person though!
<< <i>I was a little surprised he would talk about such a trade; in as much as such talk about using credit cards for the same thing was greeted so poorly. >>
I guess it depends on what you buy. Best thing I ever did was max out my cc's to buy 08w buff fractionals and 08w $10 uncirculated age's from the mint. I would have even taken out my 401k if I could have lol.
edited to add: I agree with using cc's to purchase bullion provided the cc has a reasonable interest rate. Gold doesn't depreciate, it's very liquid, and it provides a hedge against the current 24hr fiat currency printing presses. Also it seems that cc's are being taken away from people that don't use them so if you maintain balances they can't take them away right? And what better way to have a balance than with purchasing an increasing valuable asset such as gold? The cc interest - the underlying gold value = a good hedge against financial armaggedon IMO. Plus with lower rate cc's you can even come out with a profit!
I'd like to know the % marketcap vs. mine physical location rather than the country where the company is incorporated. I don't believe that anything near 95% of them are in perfectly safe jurisdictions.
GSR still looks like it has momentum going in the up direction though in many respects it seems to be waning.
I wouldn't bet the CC on gold's performance. Nothing says it can't turn around for 6-12 months at a whack and bleed you down. If you want to more quickly learn the trading banter/lingo read the kitco forums threads on a daily basis. You can go back as many months as you like to quickly come up to speed. They post a lot of charts to help one along. I recommend Quad G's Major Market Movements thread.
roadrunner
That was one heck of a purchase... I'm glad it worked out for you, and in fact I think you were a little early in your call -- i.e. much of the 'use your credit' debate happened late december early January.
I had a slightly different take on the subject... I just believe(d) that some people worked really hard on their credit rating; they looked at their available credit as a form of INSURANCE, or UTILITY. To have that 'value' taken away because of say the zip code you reside... just seemed wrong to me. By transferring credit to physical pm's, it was/is like taking the custodian position for your credit... at a cost or profit... where ever the cards landed.
Bob Chapman, I think was trying to make a different point, depending on the options one had in their 401k... I was surprised in that it sounded like he was giving financial advice, which he usually tries to stay away from, except for the normal 'I don't give financial advice... but I'll tell you what I'm doing'.
He believes things have gotten worse... not better... so maybe thats where he is really coming from... sorta a 'last call' type of thing.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>Again, I ask.........does anyone know what a "Swiss Chair" chart is? >>
There are probably no replies because no one knows. Here is a picture of one, so I'm guessing a chart pattern would resemble that shape. >>
Swiss chairs "office types" have very high backs and have distintive L shape. No idea what context this was used in.............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
That is a orderly stairstep pattern upwards in the case of gold..................... It goes up...........consolidates...............goes up................consolidates.................goes up.................consolidates...................goes up.......................etc etc etc.......MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Happy trading!
Thanks!
<< <i>Hey Justacommeman that unemployment link needs it's own thread. So everyone will see it. Scary indeed! >>
In all honesty, it's kind of off topic... it's relavent to trading and the economy, but not to PM's directly...
So tonight gold is on fire, having set a new ATH of 1127.9. Figures, since I'm not in...
Now I've got the dilemna of jumping in here at 1125 or hoping for a dip to 1110 or so.
Support is at 1108.3 and 1114, so a dip down to there might be likely but the action looks really bullish here in the first half hour. Of course, it always looks that way when you're not in it.
Resistance is at 1125 and 1130.7 and 1147.
Obama must not have done a good job on his trip, the dollar keeps falling.
It looked too bullish for me so I had to buy back in. I'm up to 50% position at $1225. At the moment, gold is up to $1130. It's looking to me like gold is going to break above 1130 tonight or tomorrow.
The USD is on the brink of breaking down through 75.0, and gold is above its trading channel. SP500 is on the brink of a breakout over 1100.
My only battle now is when to add more... With R3 at 1147-1152 there's a lot of room for gold to run on a break over 1130. Maybe greed is getting the best of me here.
The gurus have been calling for a turn date the 3rd week of November. Most felt it was going to be a low. Now it may indeed be a high. There is still time to take a week off starting mid next week. That would coincide with futures expiring on the 23rd. It would give the banks a chance to close out some shorts and then begin another run at the start of a new month....just like Sept, Oct, and November.
roadrunner
<< <i>Maybe greed is getting the best of me here. >>
------------------------------------------
Greed is a dirty word in my vocabulary. Planning for the future sounds so much better.
$1500 gold sounds best though!
A couple of possibilities...
1. The begining of a new, more aggresive incline or channel
2. There are 2 humps plus one more forming, each larger than the one before. In which case, gold has probably about topped out for the near term.
3. I've drawn the channel wrong and we have an upward ascending triangle, which is typically bearish I believe...
4. I've drawn the channel wrong and there's something I'm not seeing.
If #1 is true, I'd say we're unquestionably in a parabolic move where things like this are possible.
BTW, the gap-up today can probably be ignored. The LIFFE opens an hour after the Comex. The comex chart does not have a gap.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
roadrunner
<< <i>I'd vote for a channel breakout in the making as well. Next major stopping point is JS's $1224. With a GSR of 61 that would correspond with a silver level of $20. >>
Silver's having a remarkable day today though. I picked up two contracts last night on a whim at 17.68, and it hit 18.33 earlier, a gain of .65. Unbelievable.
I think this is the place to go in with a 120% position, but I don't have the balls to do it... I'm at about 75% now, would like to see a pullback to add but I don't think I'm going to get it.
nice trade. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Nice hit. You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
(Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
<< <i>Down day tomorrow, I think. >>
What do you base that on? Just the fact that today was up huge? If that's the reasoning, I wouldn't be so sure.
I'm traveling so I haven't had a chance to study anything. Coin dealers are reporting that the phones are ringing off the hook - more than usual - today. I think the buy switch is turned on. I think the 1135 area will provide solid support. I'm on board for $1200 gold by Thanksgiving.
And wow, how about platinum and palladium? Up $57 and $18 respectively. WOW.
I think that for the moment, the bull is loose and running. It's going to be a wild week.
This will will prove important week for the dollar/euro, equities, gold and silver. All are at major inflection points.
It seems like this has been the situation every month going back a ways now and the dollar keeps disappointing. Today the dollar touched below it's previous yearly low which is not a good omen...plenty of room to drop down to the bottom of it's 8 month channel. Today Bob Hoye put out a warning of a gold overbought technical blow-off in progress, the first in 22 months. Maybe so. But Hoye also was figuring on a larger pull back in October/November and a fairly strong dollar counter rally, neither of which have really occured. One by one all the top and bottom callers are getting blown away much the way they have been for months in the S&P.
The GSR liquidity index has broken down a bit and has fallen completely below the 20/30 dma...first time in 2 weeks. It would appear to me that today's drop nearly cements the overall turn downwards in the GSR. The RSI and Stoch have had neg divergences for weeks now. Momentum indictor Williams%R (as well as CCI/StochRsi) are heading quickly for the basement and have been showing neg divergences as well. Once heading down that hard they usually don't turn back up until they've vacationed a while. The ADX has been in a general downtrend since mid-September. Aroon 10/15 (days since last high or low) is stretched to the max which is usually when the return leg begins. The RSI 14 line has broken below the uptrend line of the past 2 months. Not much bullish to report on GSR. It could be signaling the resuming of the march back down towards the mid-50's. The dollar making a new yearly low certainly only aids the cause.
GDXJ jumped today not allowing an easy entry. I didn't feel comfortable last week getting in thinking that the silvers were shaky and many of the goldies were close to recent highs. But as it usually goes silver blasted off and the goldies inched up further. Maybe a better entry point later this week if gold bounces down to the $1114-$1120 area for at least a semblance of a retrace.
roadrunner
Maybe, just maybe gold is the "au currant" preferred currency of the world......probably just a wild thought.....MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>one day doesn't make a trend BUT the dollar came off of the mat strongly today and gold is holding up like a champ. (so far)
Maybe, just maybe gold is the "au currant" preferred currency of the world......probably just a wild thought.....MJ >>
Quite amazing that the HUGH rise in the dollar hasn't tanked PM's. I think more people/countries have caught on to the paper game and they're in no rush to sell in this enviorment. I'd hate to be a big short right now.
Texthttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=mauritius-buys-two-tons-of-imf-gold-2009-11-17
Wow! ttown, you're right - if you go to Sinclair's site, you can see both the dollar index and gold next to each other. This is the first time in recent memory that the two haven't moved inversely to each other.
Looks "significant" to me.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Even lowly copper ran up some 5% today before pulling back which is nuts. Yeah, this could be a blow off top of the run from $931 but it doesn't seem like there is going to be the nice big FAT pullback that most timers/traders have been figuring on so that they can get back in cheap. Whoever has helped push gold up this high probably has no intention of letting others back in and paying a lot less than they did.
This will will prove important week for the dollar/euro, equities, gold and silver. All are at major inflection points.
It seems like this has been the situation every month going back a ways now and the dollar keeps disappointing. Today the dollar touched below it's previous yearly low which is not a good omen...plenty of room to drop down to the bottom of it's 8 month channel. Today Bob Hoye put out a warning of a gold overbought technical blow-off in progress, the first in 22 months. Maybe so. But Hoye also was figuring on a larger pull back in October/November and a fairly strong dollar counter rally, neither of which have really occured. One by one all the top and bottom callers are getting blown away much the way they have been for months in the S&P.
The GSR liquidity index has broken down a bit and has fallen completely below the 20/30 dma...first time in 2 weeks. It would appear to me that today's drop nearly cements the overall turn downwards in the GSR. The RSI and Stoch have had neg divergences for weeks now. Momentum indictor Williams%R (as well as CCI/StochRsi) are heading quickly for the basement and have been showing neg divergences as well. Once heading down that hard they usually don't turn back up until they've vacationed a while. The ADX has been in a general downtrend since mid-September. Aroon 10/15 (days since last high or low) is stretched to the max which is usually when the return leg begins. The RSI 14 line has broken below the uptrend line of the past 2 months. Not much bullish to report on GSR. It could be signaling the resuming of the march back down towards the mid-50's. The dollar making a new yearly low certainly only aids the cause.
GDXJ jumped today not allowing an easy entry. I didn't feel comfortable last week getting in thinking that the silvers were shaky and many of the goldies were close to recent highs. But as it usually goes silver blasted off and the goldies inched up further. Maybe a better entry point later this week if gold bounces down to the $1114-$1120 area for at least a semblance of a retrace.
roadrunner >>
A trend is a trend until it isnt.
We have had strong moves in currencies today as I expected. Unlike mountain climbing, you dont know when you are at the top until you fall off a cliff or have retraced 25% of your ascent. All you can say is "Wow, the view sure is nice from here."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Stewart Thomson was a buyer of the dollar until the last week or two. I assume at this point he is out. He had no kind words for the dollar charts. His weekly and monthly charts tend to support continuing commodities strength and dollar weakness. He doesn't mind being in the 3% minority on where the dollar is probably headed. He's fully expecting a gold pull back in the very near future....but as an opportunity to get further on board.
roadrunner
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Trends continued in the same direction once again. The gold commercials added more longs, increased OI by 2600 contracts and lowered the S-L ratio to 3.81 from 3.87. The banks are just hanging on hoping this ends so they can get out of some shorts.
The dollar saw the same trend but it accelerated. The L-S ratio dropped from 1.67 down to 1.21 as 3600 shorts were added to bring OI interest to 42K, the highest it's been this year. The ratio has been dropping for weeks. Not very indicative of a coming bull run in the dollar.
Gold vs UDN chart
Some good charts in the above link. In particular gold vs. other currencies is getting close to completing a base cup formation. Next step would likely be a rejection from the resistance line to form the handle.
roadrunner
I am 100% convinced that gold is in a speculative rally hyperbolic phase, so the problem is that gold isn't going to behave just how we expect it to. When we think it's out of energy, it will push higher. And inevitably, there will be some quick and steep pullbacks which may be hard to see coming.
I had a 100% position but sold 25% at the end of day around 1151. Not sure if I will regret this or not. Now sure how the vote on healthcare bill debate today will or will not affect gold or how it will go. I will buy back on any pullback Sun night when the markets reopen.
The USD just doesn't look good. It's approaching the top of the downward channel again at about 75.7. The range between support at 75.0 is getting narrow, and I just see the dollar breaking through 75 decisively, which will send gold up further. We could be on the verge of a BIG daily move, $50-100 if this happens.
At the same time, I have to remain cautious of a steep and sudden, but quick pullback that I know is coming... I just don't know when.
The market is just crazy at the moment... Even with gold at 1166, I think there is still more upside for Monday.
I see resistance at 1187, 1173.6, 1169, and support at 1160 and 1155.
There are some writers out there predicting 1200 by Thanksgiving. I think it's pretty optimistic and I wouldn't bet on it myself, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
Went and splurged a bit buying physical this weekend picking up a few more MS62/63 Libs, Saints, and Indians before the bargains on the bay disappear. There wasn't a lot to choose from (that was priced good), but I bought everything that was priced attractively after Bing cashback. It feels good to convert the paper gold profits to physical gold.
GSR in the short term seems to be trending back up to reunite with the overall trend of the past 6-7 weeks or so.
The gold stocks left a lot of hangmen today after early spurts. Regardless, many of them are rounding over on the MACD and Stochastics.
The Aden Sisters published a bullish gold article today. While they no longer have a -1.000 batting average one still has to consider the timing.
roadrunner
Support is at 1159, 1166, with resistance at 1173.5 and 1181.