Incredible..........Absolutely Incredible! Is the Collecting World Waking up??

19Lyds

I sit here this evening wondering just how in the heck such a massive charade can continue?

Missing Edge Lettering Jefferson Presidential Dollars.

MS64 = $2,000 - Population = 20 (No change in Proce since 4-20-2009)
MS65 = $2,350 - Population = 487 (Ditto)(Down by $150 since 4-20-2009)
MS66 = $2,850 - Population = 663 (Down by $650 since 4-20-2009 but seriously folks, how many Modern coins with a population of 663 in a grade are worth $2,850 ?)
MS67 = $4,000 - Population = 122 (Down by $1,000 since 4-20-2009)
MS68 = $7,500 - Population = 1 (No change in Price since 4-20-2009)

Granted, these are down a fraction since my last post on 4-20-2009 about this "investment charade" but the prices are still ridiculous!

I guess lots of folks are simply "upside down" in these with no way out. Sales must be occuring in the 65-67 range though since the prices have gone down but those drops are no where near what they should be. The populations are similar to the Adams Presidential Dollars but the prices sure ain't!

QBert

Sortof like 16D dimes

wondercoin

Lee: I commented on this very subject over on the US Coin Forum in the Eagle Eye thread. To sum it up, we are both on the same page.

Wondercoin

illini420

I have no clue where PCGS is getting their price data to be at $5000 on the MS67, then to go to $4600 on the MS67 and then only a week later to drop it to $4000.

I've been looking all over for completed sales data on an MS67 example so that I could try to figure out what the coin I own is really worth and have found nothing. When I had it listed on eBay last month for an opening bid of $2750 it went unsold, so you can make an argument that $2750 is too high (or maybe my example just didn't appeal to the buyers enough to justify the real market price, if such a thing exists). I had several emails of people offering to buy it from me off eBay from $1500 to $2200. I didn't sell because I still don't know what a fair price is. So a couple of days ago I relisted it at 1/2 of the then current PCGS Guide Price, $2300. So far there is a bidder so there seems to be some support at that price level. Who knows, but if other pricing data is being used by PCGS, I would like to see some this other pricing data other than my previous auction failures and my current auction.

Even if I only get the $2300 out of this Pop 120 or so coin, I'd much rather take that cash and buy something a little less modern. You could actually take that money and pretty much buy TWO 1909 Lincoln VDBs in MS67RD (pop 189/1) for about $1200-$1500 or so each.

cohodk

Why do people place a higher emphasis on a corporate price guide rather than the open market?

Silverstate

<< <i>I sit here this evening wondering just how in the heck such a massive charade can continue?

Missing Edge Lettering Jefferson Presidential Dollars.

MS64 = $2,000 - Population = 20 (No change in Proce since 4-20-2009)
MS65 = $2,350 - Population = 487 (Ditto)(Down by $150 since 4-20-2009)
MS66 = $2,850 - Population = 663 (Down by $650 since 4-20-2009 but seriously folks, how many Modern coins with a population of 663 in a grade are worth $2,850 ?)
MS67 = $4,000 - Population = 122 (Down by $1,000 since 4-20-2009)
MS68 = $7,500 - Population = 1 (No change in Price since 4-20-2009)

Granted, these are down a fraction since my last post on 4-20-2009 about this "investment charade" but the prices are still ridiculous!

I guess lots of folks are simply "upside down" in these with no way out. Sales must be occuring in the 65-67 range though since the prices have gone down but those drops are no where near what they should be. The populations are similar to the Adams Presidential Dollars but the prices sure ain't! >>





The Adams MEL's have never seen those price levels.
The only obvious difference is that more Adams MEL Dollars have been to market than the Jefferson MEL Dollars, so to speak.

JMHO

wondercoin

Yes, with a last public sale on the MS66 MEL Jeff at what - $500 or $600 (after deducting he value of the other coin in the lot)?? Jamie is well aware of the "new" prices and, IMHO, corrected prices are just around the corner.

Wondercoin

BigRick

Ahhh, the risk of buying moderns with ever increasing pops.

MikeInFL

<< <i>Why do people place a higher emphasis on a corporate price guide rather than the open market? >>



Because price guide numbers are easier to calculate and tend to be higher.

illini420

As a follow up, my PCGS MS67 Jefferson MEL Dollar did sell this time around on eBay for $2325. Ended up being two bidders so there were at least two people out there willing to pay $2300 for it, with one of them, the winner, potentially willing to pay alot more. Again, I had a couple of people email me to try to get me to sell off of eBay, but I just told them to bid if they want the coin. For those interested, my auction had nearly 300 views and at the end I had 34 people watching this coin, but apparently most had zero interest in bidding!!!

An NGC MS67 example of this coin was also briefly listed yesterday on eBay with a Buy it Now of $1999, but it has since been taken down... doesn't look like it sold, but it could have sold off eBay??

That said, I can make the argument that the MS67 Jefferson MEL dollar should be valued well over the $2325 that my auction closed at because eBay isn't that indicative of true value since people have to buy off of photos and can't view lots in hand like at a major auction and therefore the prices realized on eBay are lower than the real market value. Maybe mine sold lower than market prices because of the ending time chosen for my auction and the lack of comparable material to draw in bidders like a major auction would have. Alternatively, I could make the arguement that the MS67 Jefferson MEL dollar should be valued under the $2325 that my auction closed under the theory that it is not really that rare of a coin, it's just not currently available on the market, and that the people bidding on my auction were overpaying because of the huge value assigned to the coin by PCGS which gave them the impression they were getting a great deal. Which is the correct answer??? Who knows???

wondercoin

you did great in the auction!

Wondercoin

Datentype

From experience, the first few generally sell very high but when number 100 is trying to be sold assuming there are even 100 collectors for it the price will be under $200. There are very few high population coins (over 100) that sell for more than $200 from the modern area. The price decays very fast after the top 20 have it and if the population were to jump again from another find it sells for under $100 real fast

19Lyds

<< <i>That said, I can make the argument that the MS67 Jefferson MEL dollar should be valued well over the $2325 that my auction closed at because eBay isn't that indicative of true value since people have to buy off of photos and can't view lots in hand like at a major auction and therefore the prices realized on eBay are lower than the real market value. >>



The coin was worth maybe $1300 tops. Good God there are a 122 of those coins while the high grade MS66 Adams MEL only has 67!

The only thing that the Jefferson MEL coin has working in its favor is the fact that none sell publically. If all 1,293 or even a mere 500 were offered at public auction, the prices would drop to where they really should be. This little ditty was initially sold by the Oxford Club as an investment to the uneducated, unwary speculators who were sold a song and dance about how "rare" these were compared to the 80,000 MEL Washingtons. Nothing more and nothing less. The coin has been over speculated and is no more valuable nor rare than a MEL Adams presidential.

IMO, this coin at any price over what the MEL Adams coins sell at is a loser over the long run since the populations will never support it's super hyped and supposed "rarity?"!

I retracted my "Horse Crap" comment since you reply does present the true take on this MEL coin.

Silverstate

The MEL Jefferson sold for decent money, considering the pop.

wondercoin

I've got to say, when Lee is right, Lee is right. I know the price guide is at least heading in the right direction though.

Wondercoin

illini420

Still heading in the "right" direction. In the past two months the "value" in MS67 in the PCGS Guide has gone from $5000, then to $4600, then to $4000 and now to $3000.

DIMEMAN

Why would anybody pay moon money for a pop 20 modern knowing that the only reason for the big price for the coin is because of the top registerys needing them and once those have them there is really no market for the coins???

I'm serious. This is not a bash. The Registry is but a small part of the collecting community and the rest of the collectors really do not care about high grade moderns. Most collectors probably get them out of circulation or buy the sets from the mint to put in their books???!!!

wondercoin

"Why would anybody pay moon money for a pop 20 modern"

I could even see that under various circumstances, but not really for a pop 122?

Wondercoin

19Lyds

Prices have been adjusted to a more reasonable level but IMO are still out of line with reality.

MS64 = $1,700 - Population = 20 (Down by $300)
MS65 = $1,850 - Population = 487 (Down by $500)
MS66 = $2,000 - Population = 663 (Down by $850 but seriously folks, how many Modern coins with a population of 663 in any grade are worth $2,000 ?)
MS67 = $2,750 - Population = 122 (Down by $1,250)
MS68 = $7,000 - Population = 1 (No change in Price since 4-20-2009)(The grade combined with the pop can justify this price)

I wonder what the SF MEL Monroe (Population 44 ) and SF MEL JQ Adams (Population 1) coins are bringing?

wondercoin

Justin recently passed on buying the MS66 MEL Jefferson coin for a tiny fraction of that (new) Price Guide price when one came up in the Bowers sale. It was in a group lot of 2 coins so best estimate might have been $600 or $700 for the MS66 MEL Jefferson as a stand alone coin? In any event, we are in full agreement that the levels are still too high at the new lower prices. I will mention this to Jamie next month when we discuss Presidential Dollars.

Wondercoin

Manorcourtman

Where these found by one individual or several spread across the country? Sorry I'm late to the party!

dpoole

With the moderns, one never knows what the ultimate number of the significant errors are going to be.

There is no doubt, this is a significant error. It is visually obvious and verifiable, and thus joins the ranks of issues that have the potential for popular appeal.

As opposed to the 1955 Lincoln DDO, say, or even the Wisconsin high leaf/low leaf, this issue runs the risk of staying in the closet of obscurity because no one uses (again) the dollar coin.

As always, it's a matter of supply/demand. The numbers of these errors ae small, but the obscurity of the issue means the demand is even smaller.

Who knows if the latest effort at coin dollar issue will ever reach public interest? But if it does, clearly the plain-edge would then be a correspondingly interesting point of interest.

19Lyds

<< <i>Where these found by one individual or several spread across the country? Sorry I'm late to the party! >>



I stongly expect that these were found by a single individual over a couple of boxes. I'd like to know which mint they were "supposed" to be from and suspect Denver but cannot prove aything.

For whatever reason, these coins were sold to an "Investment" firm which literally called folks on the phone selling them as investments.

Unfortunately, the Jefferson Presidential Dollar has an interesting past. When the GW's came out, MS67's were nearrly impossible. When the Adams came out, same story! However when the Jeffersons came out, there was a ton of them but the masses, having viewed the Washington and Adams sale prices for MS67's, scooped them up at some fairly high prices until it was finally realized that MS67 for a Jefferson was a fairly common grade. This kinda hurt the sale prices for the coins which followed as folks were really lear over shelling out big bucks anymore.

The MEL simply drives the fact home even deeper.

illini420

an MS66 PCGS Jefferson MEL sold in the current Heritage auction at $1035 including the BP. With the current Guide Price at $2000 in that grade, looks like more red numbers are on the way.

same auction had an MS66 Madison Satin Finish MEL sell for $2530. That one looked pretty cool to me and could be a long term winner as it seems much more difficult to find than the other MEL coins.

19Lyds

There's the recently found Taylor as well.

Danged Denver Mint! Why can't they screw a couple up for me??

Auburn California Banks in case your reading......................

19Lyds

Is the collecting world waking up or should I have bid more on this ?

$805 seems pretty cheeep for a $1400 coin.

Or perhaps this is why these rarely show up in a public auction?

Whatever! Another one will come along shortly.

wondercoin

As I recall, last MS66 sold in a Bowers sale for about $600 when you assign values to the 2 coin lot it was in. I suspect values may continue to decline for a while more in the Guide as they were so high in the first place.

By the way, what happened with those doubled edge "rarities" that Heritage purportedly estimated at $10,000? Did they sell?

Wondercoin

19Lyds

<< <i>By the way, what happened with those doubled edge "rarities" that Heritage purportedly estimated at $10,000? Did they sell?

Wondercoin >>



I thought these were scheduled for the Long Beach Auction (#1137) but I cannot find them listed.

19Lyds

<< <i>I sit here this evening wondering just how in the heck such a massive charade can continue?

Missing Edge Lettering Jefferson Presidential Dollars.

MS64 = $2,000 - Population = 20 (No change in Proce since 4-20-2009)
MS65 = $2,350 - Population = 487 (Ditto)(Down by $150 since 4-20-2009)
MS66 = $2,850 - Population = 663 (Down by $650 since 4-20-2009 but seriously folks, how many Modern coins with a population of 663 in a grade are worth $2,850 ?)
MS67 = $4,000 - Population = 122 (Down by $1,000 since 4-20-2009)
MS68 = $7,500 - Population = 1 (No change in Price since 4-20-2009)

Granted, these are down a fraction since my last post on 4-20-2009 about this "investment charade" but the prices are still ridiculous!

I guess lots of folks are simply "upside down" in these with no way out. Sales must be occuring in the 65-67 range though since the prices have gone down but those drops are no where near what they should be. The populations are similar to the Adams Presidential Dollars but the prices sure ain't! >>



Whoa.

MS64 = $280 - Population = 20 (No change in Pops since 10-04-2009)
MS65 = $365 - Population = 490 (Pops increase by 3 since 10-04-2009)(Price...down by $1985 since 10-04-2009)
MS66 = $500 - Population = 664 (Pops increase by 1 since 10-04-2009)(Price down by $2,250 since 10-04-2009)
MS67 = $800 - Population = 122 (No pop changes)(Price down by $3,200 since 10-04-2009)
MS68 = $6,500 - Population = 1 (Price down by $500 10-04-2009)

It looks like a certain level of sanity has been achieved with this coin which serves as a prime example of how "Investment Groups" can really hurt coin speculators that don't do their homework.

All the signs were there that the coin was way over priced for its population yet, folks bought into it. Looks like the big loser was the MS66 in shear dollar amounts.
Of course, I lost a couple of bucks on this one as well since I paid $766 for my MS65 off of Heritage in March of 2010.

Whatever.

Once the dollar bill gets eliminated and these start circulating again, perhaps interest will pick up inthe series?

wondercoin

Very interesting. Those (new prices) were roughly the prices I suggested the coins were worth when the Price Guide editor asked me about them back in 2009. But, the editor could not ignore real sales to real people (unfortunately) that were being reported by other contributor(s) to the Price Guide.

And, those new prices do not even take into consideration the new issue of whether virtually all of these coins are actually stolen property of the U.S. Mint (or are not part of the coins stolen from the Mint)? Correct me if I am wrong, but, do we know, one way or the other yet, whether these Jefferson MEL were indeed part of the stolen property of the US Mint? I am aware of -1- Jefferson MEL actually found in circulation. Does anyone know of more than -1- coin that actually was found by someone hunting for them? If memory serves me right that -1- coin graded either MS65 or MS66. It sure would be nice to get an official confirmation that these coins were not part of the stolen Pres $1 errors.

As always, just my cents.

Wondercoin

RYK

That's a very interesting price trajectory over time and cautionary tale for many of us.

wondercoin

RYK: Again, a number of us were stating that these particular coins were worth 10 or 20 cents on the dollar back when the Price Guide was at those high numbers. Not to mention that as far as I know, the great majority of the sales were private sales involving marketing types of companies and not public auctions or the like. In fact, take a look at the major auction companies prices realized and check out just how many of these roughly 1,300 coins actually appeared at an auction.

As always, just my 2 cents,

Wondercoin

19Lyds

<< <i>RYK: Again, a number of us were stating that these particular coins were worth 10 or 20 cents on the dollar back when the Price Guide was at those high numbers. Not to mention that as far as I know, the great majority of the sales were private sales involving marketing types of companies and not public auctions or the like. In fact, take a look at the major auction companies prices realized and check out just how many of these roughly 1,300 coins actually appeared at an auction.

As always, just my 2 cents,

Wondercoin >>


These were virtually "unavailable" until around February 2008.

I expectthat possibly a box was found but then I wouldn't expect Investment Houses to be searching through boxes of coins so they must have purchased them from someone else who'd had them graded.

Manorcourtman

Is it possible these got out via the US Mint Guard who was busted a while back?

19Lyds

<< <i>Is it possible these got out via the US Mint Guard who was busted a while back? >>

Totally possible but then there are 4 coins with the First Day of Issue label and these MUST be submitted in Mint Sealed Boxes of First Day Coin Covers.

So far, any that appear "after" the third quarter of 2007 do not have any First Day of Issue labels and as such could be suspect. Of course, barring the Satin Finish coins which were in Mint and Dollar Coin Sets.

Dolan

Fascinating..