All the love for Greinke; how about Lincecum?

Mickey71 · September 29, 2009 6:45AM

It seemed like everyone was saying Zach is the Cy Young no matter how many wins he has and I agree. In the NL there is a similar situation. Tim Lincecum's numbers are awesome except his win total; and we know how much of an offensive juggernaut San Fran is. Has about 120 more K's than Carpenter. There WHIP is about the same and the league bats .209 against Lincecum. .209-are you kidding me. Where is the love? Oh by the way, Lincecum is tied for the league lead in complete games and shutouts. I don't see any difference in the Greinke ordeal where national media was getting involved. The only difference I see is that Lincecum is much better than the #2 guy more so than Greinke is over Hernandez. Best pitcher in the NL is Lincecum. The numbers don't lie in this case.

cwazzy · September 29, 2009 7:13AM

Lincecum's numbers are amazing. But so are Carpenter's. A .209 BAA is amazing. But Carps .227 isn't too shabby either. And to say that Lincecum has 120 more strikeouts than Carp is a bit misleading as he missed a month due to injury so the actual adjusted numbers would probably only be about 100 more.

I may be in the minority here (and I can accept the backlash from those that disagree) but strikeouts are overrated. They cause a pitcher to throw more pitches than a pitcher that pitches to contact. Again this is my opinion and you don't have to agree.

Now this being said, do I think Carp deserves to win the award? Not necessarily. Would it be a travisty if Lincecum won it? Not at all. I'm not overly sure who deserves it more. They are both great pitchers that are having great years. To say that Lincecum isn't getting any love is a bit of a stretch. I imagine the voting will be very close between him and Carpenter (and Wainwright if he gets to 20 wins, not that I think wins should play a role in CYA voting at all).

cwazzy · September 29, 2009 7:16AM

<< The only difference I see is that Lincecum is much better than the #2 guy more so than Greinke is over Hernandez. Best pitcher in the NL is Lincecum. The numbers don't lie in this case. >>

And I don't think Lincecum is THAT much better than Carpenter (or Wainwright but I'm a tad biased there

). I do believe that Greinke is the best pitcher in baseball this year, hands down. And that include Lincecum.

digicat · September 29, 2009 7:35AM

<< And to say that Lincecum has 120 more strikeouts than Carp is a bit misleading as he missed a month due to injury so the actual adjusted numbers would probably only be about 100 more. >>

Carpenter has 187.2 innings pitched this year. Lincecum has 218.1.

Carpenter averages 6.6 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Lincecum averages 10.5 strikeouts per 9.

cwazzy · September 29, 2009 7:42AM

<< 

<< And to say that Lincecum has 120 more strikeouts than Carp is a bit misleading as he missed a month due to injury so the actual adjusted numbers would probably only be about 100 more. >>

Carpenter has 187.2 innings pitched this year. Lincecum has 218.1.

Carpenter averages 6.6 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Lincecum averages 10.5 strikeouts per 9. >>

Yeah, I know Lincecum has a much better strikeout rate. The

at the end of that statement was meant to show that I was joking. Again, strikeouts are overrated.

digicat · September 29, 2009 7:57AM

<< Again, strikeouts are overrated. >>

Just by themselves, yes. But when combined with a low WHIP and a low ERA, they're a sign that the pitcher is dominating hitters.

cwazzy · September 29, 2009 8:02AM

<< 

<< Again, strikeouts are overrated. >>

Just by themselves, yes. But when combined with a low WHIP and a low ERA, they're a sign that the pitcher is dominating hitters. >>

Very true. But Carpenter is proving that you can dominate without striking players out. His 1.01 WHIP is the second lowest in baseball and we have established that he is not a strikeout pitcher.

Mickey71 · September 29, 2009 8:27AM

Strikeouts except for the rare occurence when there is a wild pitch are very important. When a batter is struck out there is no chance for an error, no chance to advance runners no pressure on the defense at all. When you put all of the numbers together he is the best in the NL. Just to add, I don't really care but what is fair is fair.

ziggy29 · September 30, 2009 1:16AM

A lot of baseball research has concluded that there is little to no consistent ability for a pitcher to get more outs when he allows the ball to be put in play. They use a statistic called BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which shows a very strong tendency to revert to the mean for all pitchers.

The strongest correlation with a consistently low BAA for a pitcher is their strikeout rate.

sagard · September 30, 2009 1:44AM

Greinke is a no-brainer because he leads ERA by a whopping 0.42 runs per nine innings. That is a HUGE margin.

In the NL things are much closer. Carpenter leads in ERA by a 0.17 and pitches in a much more friendly hitters park, but he has failed to pitch as often as Lincecum. That matters. Wainwright has to be considered strongly as well. He has made ALL his starts, his ERA is only 0.11 worse than Lincecum.

I like Lincecum because of the strikeouts, but Carpenter and Wainwright are both valid choices.

TomGshotput · September 30, 2009 4:28AM

<< A lot of baseball research has concluded that there is little to no consistent ability for a pitcher to get more outs when he allows the ball to be put in play. They use a statistic called BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which shows a very strong tendency to revert to the mean for all pitchers >>

That means you should be giving Carpenter a lot of credit for his extremely low homerun and walk totals

Greinke leads Hernandez by a fair margin in walks and strikeouts and a few less homeruns. Hernandez has only pitched a few innings more. Lincecum is ahead of Carpenter in strikeouts by a wide margin, is behind in walk rate and slightly behind in homerun rate. But then there is the four fewer starts and 30 fewer innings pitched. Might have to put Wainwright second with his league leading innings pitched. Not sure who is further ahead, but both Greinke and Lincecum are easy choices

Never understood why WHIP is used to evaluate pitchers so much. Hits and walks are not equal, but they are added together like they are. Like written above hits are simply a function of strikeouts -- any variance is either luck, defense, or will become evident in homerun rates. So why isn't K/BB ratio seen as a better indicator? It measures the same thing, but takes the luck and defense out of the equation

larryallen73 · September 30, 2009 6:59AM

I like Lincecum because of the strikeouts, but Carpenter and Wainwright are both valid choices.

I guess I look at this another way. Who would I, as an outsider (I am a Dodger fan) rather have on my team right now heading into the playoffs? For me, I would rather have Lincecum and it's not even close. I think he is a much more dominating pitcher.

Putting the bats aside if it were just based on pitching I would rather by Dodger's face the Card's than the Giant's because I think Cain and Lincecum are a tougher 1-2 than Carpenter and Wainwright. All 4 are better than anybody my Dodger's have but those two Giant's really scare me. Obviously with bats in the equation I would rather not face the Cardinal's.

digicat · September 30, 2009 7:53AM

Looking down the list of Cy Young Award Winners, the lowest win total for that season by any winner (not counting relievers or strike seasons) is 16. Tim's got 14, and has a shot at #15 tomorrow.

My guess is that the sports writers will want to give the award to Carpenter, since he pretty much came back from 2 years of injury oblivion and returned to an elite status.

digicat · October 1, 2009 4:29AM

Wow... Carp just hit a grand-slam HR to aid his own cause today.

I think the only thing that Tim can do to leap ahead of everyone in the Cy Young race would be to throw a no-no and fan 20+ today.

cwazzy · October 1, 2009 4:42AM

<< Wow... Carp just hit a grand-slam HR to aid his own cause today.

I think the only thing that Tim can do to leap ahead of everyone in the Cy Young race would be to throw a no-no and fan 20+ today. >>

That would probably do it. LOL Tim is a great pitcher and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he won it again this year. I wish the Cardinals had him to compliment Carpenter and Wainwright. I would be willing to trade Smoltz for him.

digicat · October 1, 2009 4:55AM

<< That would probably do it. LOL Tim is a great pitcher and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he won it again this year. I wish the Cardinals had him to compliment Carpenter and Wainwright. I would be willing to trade Smoltz for him. >>

If we give you Lincecum for Smoltz, you'll need to give us Pujols for Ishikawa.

cwazzy · October 1, 2009 4:56AM

<< 

<< That would probably do it. LOL Tim is a great pitcher and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he won it again this year. I wish the Cardinals had him to compliment Carpenter and Wainwright. I would be willing to trade Smoltz for him. >>

If we give you Lincecum for Smoltz, you'll need to give us Pujols for Ishikawa.

>>

Now you're just being ridiculous.

cwazzy · October 1, 2009 5:05AM

Carp is 2/3 today w/ a grandslam and 6 RBI through 5 innings while allowing 3 hits and no runs and striking out 6.

digicat · October 1, 2009 7:09AM

Well, the no-no and the strikeout record are both off the table now for Timmy.

His velocity is down, and his location is off, and he's throwing a lot of pitches... but he's still shutting out the D-Backs.

digicat · October 1, 2009 8:12AM

Unless the D-Backs manage to rally from 4 behind:

Tim's final 2009 stats:
15-7, 2.48 era, 261 strikeouts, 1.05 whip.

digicat · October 1, 2009 8:38AM

ESPN.com has a nifty little "Cy Young Predictor". So far, it's correctly predicted 14 of the last 18 Cy Young Award winners.

2000 = 2 for 2
2001 = 2 for 2
2002 = 2 for 2
2003 = 0 for 2
2004 = 1 for 2
2005 = 1 for 2
2006 = 2 for 2
2007 = 2 for 2
2008 = 2 for 2

For 2009, they're predicting Felix Hernandez (AL) and Adam Wainwright (NL).

Dave99B · October 1, 2009 9:01AM

I honestly believe Felix Hernandez will win the AL Cy Young. But I'm totally biased.

Dave

Mickey71 · October 1, 2009 9:12AM

The CY YOUNG PREDICTOR will be 0 for 2 this year. Wainright is not the best pitcher on his own team. Felix is great but Greinke is better. I would be very shocked if their picks were correct.

cwazzy · October 1, 2009 10:18AM

<< The CY YOUNG PREDICTOR will be 0 for 2 this year. Wainright is not the best pitcher on his own team. Felix is great but Greinke is better. I would be very shocked if their picks were correct. >>

Right or wrong if Wainwright gets his 20th win tomorrow, expecially if he pitches well, he may have the upper hand in the voting. I collect Wainwright and have been a fan since 2006 but I would have him as third behind Carpenter and Lincecum (but I'm not overly sure who I would vote for

).

WinPitcher · October 1, 2009 10:39AM

Greinke should win it in the AL

I'll go with Carpenter or Wainwright in the NL.

Hernandez had a great 2nd half I believe but Grienke was doing it from day 1.

Steve

cwazzy · October 1, 2009 11:30PM

I didn't realize until today that Wainwright has a league-best 1.96 ERA since the all-star break.

frankhardy · October 2, 2009 9:37AM

If Wainwright gets win number 20 by allowing 2 runs or less, Wainwright might just lock it up. If not, Carpenter will probably win it. I think Lincecum is third. (I am really trying to be objective and think that I am).

Ryan Howard will definitely win the NL MVP, though.

Dave99B · October 3, 2009 3:12PM

Hernandez moved one step closer tonight!

Dave

All the love for Greinke; how about Lincecum?

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