What's UP with gold?

Steve27

Bang!

OPA

If this price is maintained for today....the Mint will be repricing their gold upwards by $50 per oz tomorrow... (UHR & First Spouse)

roadrunner

There has been a general flight to liquidity this week with T-bonds, $USDollar, Yen, Gold, and Silver all benefiting. It's odd that all of them are moving up at the same time but obviously it can happen. Call it a lack of confidence in how things are going at this moment.

roadrunner

MilesWaits

Does this price jump have anything to do with the Chinese treatening to default on their derivatives contracts???

Miles

SilverBaron

<< <i>Does this price jump have anything to do with the Chinese treatening to default on their derivatives contracts??? >>





I think its a sure thing.

They are noted for defaulting on deals they don't like.

Remember the copper contracts?

German Mag-Lev's?

fc

speculation would be my guess by major investment players.
they do it to oil. they do it to gold. when enough players who
manage billion dollar funds want some action it can move the price.
everyone looks at the same charts and interprets them in pretty
much the same way... so why not cause a blip up with some heavy
buys and see if the sheep get on board too to leverage it up some more.

then sell into strength once things start to stall.

just a guess

metalmeister

A lot of investors calling in their paper contracts and taking physical position.
"There's alot more paper gold than actual gold"
The last ones out will get burned badly.

Wolf359

<< <i>speculation would be my guess by major investment players.
they do it to oil. they do it to gold. when enough players who
manage billion dollar funds want some action it can move the price.
everyone looks at the same charts and interprets them in pretty
much the same way... so why not cause a blip up with some heavy
buys and see if the sheep get on board too to leverage it up some more.

then sell into strength once things start to stall.

just a guess >>



I've seen that with small stocks where the float can be eaten by a player painting the tape over a number of consecutive days, starting a run.
The price pops until the pre-selected sell point is reached and it collapses back after a few weeks. It works because they pick on a stock nobody
follows. Otherwise somebody bigger can muscle them out. It doesn't really happen on something that's globally traded.

fc

<< <i>

<< <i>speculation would be my guess by major investment players.
they do it to oil. they do it to gold. when enough players who
manage billion dollar funds want some action it can move the price.
everyone looks at the same charts and interprets them in pretty
much the same way... so why not cause a blip up with some heavy
buys and see if the sheep get on board too to leverage it up some more.

then sell into strength once things start to stall.

just a guess >>



I've seen that with small stocks where the float can be eaten by a player painting the tape over a number of consecutive days, starting a run.
The price pops until the pre-selected sell point is reached and it collapses back after a few weeks. It works because they pick on a stock nobody
follows. Otherwise somebody bigger can muscle them out. It doesn't really happen on something that's globally traded. >>



then i assume gold cannot be manipulated down then either?

just thinking out loud.

obviously someone(s) is doing some heavy buying today raising up the price.

OPA

The "official" reported reason is:

"Gold futures rose Wednesday to their highest level in three months, gaining after a disappointing jobs report pressured the U.S. dollar and fueled demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment."

PreTurb

Poor Jon Nadler... What is he going to say about today? Perhaps he'll just call out sick and comment on the next down day...

KUCH

People, countries have been making major gold purchases for 1 year now. (Since black September of 08') It's hard to find physical gold. The way I see it ..... it will move above the $1,000/ oz mark soon. Will hold steady through 2010, with some ups and downs, then in 2011 ........ the sky's the limit. $2,000? $3,000? I'll allocate 20% of investment funds towards gold. But that's just me!!!!

goingbroke

I allready have 40% invested in Gold and 3% in silver

57loaded

WSJ article about China and derivative tightening (or whatever they call it)

CaptHenway

<< <i>WSJ article about China and derivative tightening (or whatever they call it) >>




That sounds like sound financial policy, not "defaulting on"

CaptHenway

<< <i>A lot of investors calling in their paper contracts and taking physical position.
"There's alot more paper gold than actual gold"
The last ones out will get burned badly. >>



Where does one obtain etf fund reports?

roadrunner

obviously someone(s) is doing some heavy buying today raising up the price.

Yes, the same players that pushed prices down the past 2 days so that they could buy these stocks back on the cheap as well as cover some of their shorts.

Everyone interprets the charts the same way?

That's hardly the case. If that was true there would be no market since everyone would want the same side of the trade. Charts can be interpreted multiple ways including minute to minute trends, hourly trends, daily trends, weekly trends, monthly trends. You can conflicting reads just on the time frame you look at. Chart movement can easily be taken over by sentiment, breaking economic/political news, or just plain manipulation. Charts are just one part of the equation. A general roadmap if you will. If they guaranteed anything than all brokers and traders would be rich.

The gold chart has been bullish since 2001 yet hardly anyone interpreted it as such, certainly not any standard stock broker 99% of us know. How many forumites joined the party in 2001-2003 because of bullish PM charts? The big players have inside information (ie from the FED, Treasury, other major banks, etc.) that most everyone else doesn't have and don't have to rely on charts in order to help tip the market. The only problem with the gold insiders (ie the banks) is that they cannot win the long term battle of gold vs. paper, only short term skirmishes...that's what the 8 year chart tells us.

fc has already made it clear that the PM charts are telling him and anyone else that will listen that gold and silver are headed down. I disagree as do many others here that interpret charts. Obviously not everyone reads the charts the same. If everyone read the charts the same why wasn't everyone fully invested in on the S&P/DOW recoveries since March?...because not everyone reads the charts the same way nor do they depend on them as their sole source of market direction. fc, how do you and most everyone else read the action on the S&P chart from here? Up or Down over the next 4 months?

roadrunner

fc

<< <i> fc, how do you and most everyone else read the action on the S&P chart from here? Up or Down over the next 4 months?

roadrunner >>



i would say that "everyone" should read the chart as going up or at
least sideways after being oversold. based on the chart alone.

once you add in other factors, such as, mental disposition and background
beliefs, of course they will interpret things differently. maybe even
economic information.. perhaps

everything has it days in the sun sometime. my bet is that gold
and silver have seen its best days last year and everything now is
anti-climatic.

but we will need time to shake out the truth. just as i get excited seeing
my guess of gold going down some days... your posting becomes
equally excited when you see it tick up a few percent too.

but when comes to graphs.. you are right. different people interpret
them differently.. the graph for gold can be seen as truly bullish when
you think there is no upper limit.. or bearish when you see the quintuple
topping of gold during the most anxious of times.

goingbroke

Metal Bid Ask
Gold $978.50 $979.50 23.00
Silver $15.40 $15.45 0.37
Platinum $1,223.80 $1,233.80 6.00
Palladium $287.80 $292.80 0.20
Palladium is zooming up also! UP .20!

coynclecter

Its easy to be a chart expert. They tell us all about what happened. They can't tell us squat about what is going to happen. At best they are a self fulfilling indicator. If all the chartist have been trained to interpret the recent events as a strong indiactor of a certain direction then they all move in that direction basically causing the event to happen. I dont think this will happen in gold as there are just too many players with too many different goals.

My take on the charts.

It shows gold should continue up however it could consolidate on profit taking and move down. A sharp down move might accelerate and begin a major leg down or it may rebound on current economic news. An upward move may continue to take gold closer to 1000 or it may be cut short and keep the metal range bound.

There, I can spew meaningless BS just like the pros, send me my fee.

derryb

mining stocks did even better. saw 9-14% gain for the day with most of mine

renman95

<< <i>Its easy to be a chart expert. They tell us all about what happened. They can't tell us squat about what is going to happen. At best they are a self fulfilling indicator. If all the chartist have been trained to interpret the recent events as a strong indiactor of a certain direction then they all move in that direction basically causing the event to happen. I dont think this will happen in gold as there are just too many players with too many different goals.

My take on the charts.

It shows gold should continue up however it could consolidate on profit taking and move down. A sharp down move might accelerate and begin a major leg down or it may rebound on current economic news. An upward move may continue to take gold closer to 1000 or it may be cut short and keep the metal range bound.

There, I can spew meaningless BS just like the pros, send me my fee. >>



So true...I love your forecast. Check is in the mail.
R95

roadrunner

Coynclector is of course dead on. But the pog chart shows 8 yrs of generally upward movement as do the monthly closes and average price per month/year. Until the trend is broken, that's the trend whether we like it or not. And the "trend" didn't peak last year. Sure, there was a momentary peak of >$1000 for 3 days much like in 1980. But after January 1980 the market fizzled and certainly didn't recover a year later. After a brief rebound into the $800's in the fall of 1980 gold cratered. The major difference today is that we've had twice as many >$900 days this year than we did in 2008. 2009 looks nothing like 1981. In fact 2009 looks more like the 1978-79 chart. Other than a couple of flukish peak days for gold, 2008 was far weaker than 2009. If one looks past the brief $1033 peak and the black swan deleveraging event in October-November, the overal trend up is surprisingly steady and rising. Sometimes you have to ignore the few periods that went off the chart as they don't make up the trend. $1033 is just a "number" that caught the gold cartel off guard the first time through. But a number far larger than that is coming before June of 2010. It's about a sure as a bet as $600 gold was in mid-2005. In fact at the time gold was in the lower to mid $500's and I said it was going to close above $590 before year's end. It not only did that, it left $600 and then $700 in the dust by May of 2006. We have a similar setup to that and with fall 2007 as well. Every 2 years up it goes.

everything has it days in the sun sometime. my bet is that gold
and silver have seen its best days last year and everything now is
anti-climatic.

I'd be happy to put together a gold "wager package" once again as we did for $600 gold several years back. I miss those.

And yes, I guess I do get a bit exicted when gold is heading up. But it's hard not to get a bit motivated when the counter argument is that gold is not going up because it peaked at a round number last year. If that was true, we never would have made it past Dow 500 or 1,000, never mind 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, 12,000, and 14,000. Gold still has the better part of 28 years of catching up to do. It's not going to happen overnight. It took 7 years just to regain the ground lost through January 1980. Now it's time to gain back the ground lost to inflation, derivatives, and manipulation management.

roadrunner

goingbroke

NEW YORK -- The options market played host to strong trading in gold companies as the price of the metal rose to a near three-month high.

Among the companies that drew action were Gold Fields and Yamana Gold. In both cases, traders gravitated toward bullish options, signaling expectations for further gains in the stocks.

Trading in Gold Fields jumped to nine times the normal level, with investors picking up 24,000 calls that allow them to buy the company's stock and 5,000 puts that allow them to sell it, according to Trade Alert.

OPA

Completely opposite at Goldcorp Inc.

"Options traders are continuing to pummel Goldcorp Inc. (GG: sentiment, chart, options) with put volume. Last week, Elizabeth Harrow highlighted some heavy buy-to-open volume on GG, and it would seem that we have similar activity taking place in today's trading. Overall, the precious metals specialist has seen put volume outstrip its daily average by a ratio of more than 11 to one, with more than 38,000 of these bearish bets changing hands. The most active strike has been the September 35 put, with some 27,000 contracts trading on open interest of just 3,008 contracts."

News Article

I guess only time will tell whose crystal ball gave the correct call.

goingbroke

Reuters reported over the weekend that China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have sent letters to Western banks who are their counterparties on certain derivatives that they may default on them, leaving the banks with a huge loss. This black swan may also be moving the price of gold.

goingbroke

I fear the price is moveing up much too fast! the goverment is sure to notice. I think slow and steady rise is best. I hope they dont beat the price down too hard today! The sharp run ups in Gold intraday (on 9/2/2009) may be indicating that the government believes that the financial system is finally strong enough to allow a run up in Gold (assuming you believe that the government has been keeping it down). Central Banks have become net buyers of gold in the last few weeks which is the key indicator of something new in gold policy.

The Obama administration Keynesians understand that the USA needs to achieve a currency devaluation to improve its competitive position and increase exports but knows that this cannot be done because other countries will just match the USA currency manipulation. (In the Great Depression, the first countries to devalue were the first to recover. Look at Great Britain now.)

Countries with high dollar reserves may be tempted by a run up in gold to use their dollars to buy gold, resulting in a stealth devaluation of the dollar.

Based on the 75% devaluation during the Great Depression from $20 to $35 per oz, gold will pretty quickly go to above $1600 if this is what is happening.

It's tempting to put on a position in gold but the downside on the market is a more certain play so I'm doing it. The run in gold should actually accelerate the decline in the stock market as money exits stocks to chase gold.
news

goingbroke

DJ Hong Kong Recalls Gold Reserves, Says It Can Store It At Home HONG KONG --Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring it to a newly-built high-security depository at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday. send gold home!

goingbroke

LONDON -- Gold futures edged up $1.40 to $979.90 in electronic action on Thursday after the $22-an-ounce rally in the last session. Analysts at Credit Suisse said gold rallied after breaking resistance at $959 and was supported by a weaker dollar and a recovery in investment demand. The analysts added that there could be a test of the $1,000 mark in coming days

goingbroke

Something must be happening I just checked the AMPEX website and they are sold out on 2009 silver eagles also on small gold eagles and most of the 10 ounce silver bars. Someone is buying all they have! Either that or they dont want to sell them at this time. I wonder what to think?

mhammerman

"Something must be happening I just checked the AMPEX website and they are sold out on 2009 silver eagles also on small gold eagles and most of the 10 ounce silver bars. Someone is buying all they have! Either that or they dont want to sell them at this time. I wonder what to think?"

Relax, folk always chase the rise in price with heavy physical purchasing. There have been snippets and bits of news about CBs hoarding physical, getting their physical back on to their shores, putting their physical in their own vaults; it's been going on in earnest for a few months. There is a lot going on out there and what little bits of detritus that do float to the surface for the media to siphon off is probably just enough to cause mass confusion. If you want to be a flipper then you better get your head in the game, pay attention, and play your ass off because you're competing with some big dogs and you have to follow them, you can't set the direction by yourself. If you just want to win then you just need to accumulate a little, accumulate a little, just keep on accumulating a little. Do it when the price is down and physical can be had for little premium, when the hype isn't on, when no one's paying much attention, then one day you go to your little stash and it ain't so little any more...that's the only forsure way to win. JMHO

goingbroke

I already have my stash now I hope the rally continues!.

CaptHenway

This is old news, but timely:
.
linky
.
TD

1jester

<< <i>This is old news, but timely:
.
linky
.
TD >>



While I've heard about this before, the article brings up some particularly stimulating insinuations about China's potential reasons for getting its huge population involved in PM investing. Perhaps they intend to break the Cabal's grip on metals and at the same time, their grip on our fiat currencies? That's fascinating. And brilliant.



"Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following comment: "Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze...and it's working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids.... ...Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold' card. I can't even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."

"This may be an overstatement of the case from a precious metals bull - or it may not! Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here. It's unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors. A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country's reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar. Maybe it's not in China's interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold ). The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up.

"If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices."

InYHWHWeTrust

<< <i>Relax, folk always chase the rise in price with heavy physical purchasing. There have been snippets and bits of news about CBs hoarding physical, getting their physical back on to their shores, putting their physical in their own vaults; it's been going on in earnest for a few months. There is a lot going on out there and what little bits of detritus that do float to the surface for the media to siphon off is probably just enough to cause mass confusion. If you want to be a flipper then you better get your head in the game, pay attention, and play your ass off because you're competing with some big dogs and you have to follow them, you can't set the direction by yourself. If you just want to win then you just need to accumulate a little, accumulate a little, just keep on accumulating a little. Do it when the price is down and physical can be had for little premium, when the hype isn't on, when no one's paying much attention, then one day you go to your little stash and it ain't so little any more...that's the only forsure way to win. JMHO >>

coynclecter

Actually I prefer Nadlers projection posted today

"But first, the usual reminder we give at such a juncture. Save the “I told you so” e-mails. Simply refer to the July 1st commentary and re-read the passage regarding where we saw gold and other metals prices going for the second half of this year. There will be no spectacular surprises or wild revelations. 730-1030 plus and/or minus $100 –if certain trends materialized- was the gold price projection. "

he hit it right on the head so far, lets see, 730-1030 + or - 100 means 630 to 1130."if certain trends materialized"

WOW you think you have enough room there. and a weasel clause to boot.

So heres my next projection . Gold will close the month somewhere above 500 and below 5000, give or take 500. When do i get my column?