Vladimir Guerrero ... Chances Of 500 HRs ... Being Elected To HOF

JackWESQ

What do you think are Vladimir Guerrero's chances of reaching 500 career home runs? Of being elected to the Hall of Fame? He currently has 402 career HRs. 98 HRs could be three (3) good seasons. Or it could be an eternity as it appears that Vlad is "breaking down."

But even aside from the 500 HRs, which I don't think will make or break his HOF candidacy, what do you think are his chances at election, first ballot or otherwise? His Hall of Fame Monitor stands at 187, with 100 being a "likely HOFer." I think he needs to "pad" his stats a bit more to garner election. And he has the opportunity to do so, given that he is only 34. This, of course, assumes that someone is willing to give him a job in his later years. Your thoughts?

/s/ JackWESQ

P.S. I would love to see Vlad get elected. I just think, right now, it is not a foregone conclusion.

baseballfan

i agree he's got some work to do offensively, but in his prime he was great defensively.

i guess we'll see. i would love to see him in as well

fandango

well, someone has to get in when all the roid guys dont......

bighurt2000

I have been collecting Vladimir Guerrero cards for the last couple of year because of his stats I think he will
have no problem reaching 500 HRs if he can stay healthy. He also was MVP in 2004 that helps.

Vladimir Guerrero reminds me of Rafael Palmeiro when it comes to collecting a great player but not that
many people interested in his cards. But as his stats go up the more interest for his cards there will be and
have a better shot of making it into the HOF.

I think Vladimir needs about 4 more good years in the bigs to get into the Hall.

James

Treetop

Vlad can still hit. Its just making him understand that he'll probably have to DH the rest of his career to stay healthy. If he stays healthy, he'll get in. He played most of his career in the "roid" era and have never seen his name on anyones list as a user. That should help. Him and Gehrig are the only two players to hit at least 300 and have at least 25 homers for 11 straight years. That is a model of consistentcy.

He's probably lost millions in endorsments, due to him never learning to speak english.

gregmo32

I think he has a 65% chance. He may not need, or get, the 500 HR's but still has a good shot without them...

VitoCo1972

He's in. Top 10 player in baseball for over 1o years. I'd even go out on a limb and say first ballot.

TomGshotput

There have been five outfielders inducted by the writers in the past 10 years. Guerrero is far ahead of Rice and at least equal to Puckett. Before this year he was on pace equal Gwynn very soon and perhaps Winfield shortly after. The 65% chance of eventually being deserving is a conservative estimate considering how close he already is. But that four to one K/BB ratio this year is a strong sign he may be headed for a steep dropoff

Of course now that the writers have spent the past 10 years destroying the standards they set during the first 60 years, whether or not a player deserves to be in the Hall-of-Fame is not what determines if they make it

DaBeef

Nooooo.

MantleMarisFordBerra

Hope for his sake he is able to put together a few more very good productive years. I had always thought of him as Hall Of Fame. Some of his best years were played in Montreal, which means he flew under the radar for many people.

lsutigers1973

Vlad should never see the field again when he doesn't have a bat in his hands. His years in Montreal have destroyed his body, kind of the "Andre Dawson" effect. His career so far has been very similar to Dawson's and Dawson hasn't even got close to getting in.

Personally I think Dawson belongs and Vlad should be able to hit enough HR's if he is only a DH to get to 500 and make the hall.

RonBurgundy

No 500. No Hall.

digicat

<< <i>His career so far has been very similar to Dawson's and Dawson hasn't even got close to getting in. >>



I disagree.

Dawson:
.279 avg, .323 obp, .482 slg, 119 ops+

Guerrero
.322 avg, .387 obp, .572 slg, 146 ops+


Guerrero has only played for 14 seasons, but since this season isn't over yet, lets ignore it and compare what Guerrero did in his first 13 seasons with what Dawson did in his first 13 seasons. The comparason is still lopsided.

Guerrero (first 13 seasons)
.323 avg, .389 obp, .575 slg
392 hr, 1268 rbi, 2136 hits

Dawson (first 13 seasons)
.282 avg, .327 obp, .487 slg
298 hr, 1054 rbi, 1932 hits

ernie11

Vlad's a HOF'er, but it would help his cause to get a few more good years in.

K

<< <i>Vlad's a HOF'er, but it would help his cause to get a few more good years in. >>



Hopefully he doesn't try and stay too long just to go after a number.