Hype or Genuine Value? Coins graded just below census rarities
northcoin
Posts: 4,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
OK, X coin is promoted as being the bargain of the century because is is valued at $5,000 in MS65 while Y coin in MS66 is valued at $20,000. Except for the grade both coins are identical. Never mind that Y coin only has a population of 10 while X coin is one of 100 or more. Is this really the bargain that it appears to be on the surface? Setting aside the crack-out prospects (since one can assume that X coin has probably already reached its maximum grade via multiple submissions) in reality do coins that are on the edge really promise a future bump in value just because they are close to a census rarity? What has been your experience when you go to sell such a coin, did it increase in value just because it rubbed shoulders with a "rarity" or did it remain relatively valued just where it was when you bought it?
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Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
when i think talk about coins etc. abv. i use when i feel like it money is money grades is grades dont grade me here on trying to make you understand
i am here for coins you wanna teach school teach on i will tell you to go stick it
Seriously, Please learn how to post like a normal human being. You make no sense and you think everyone here can understand you, and Im sure Im not alone when I say, WTF.
You really should stop taking drugs before posting here.
i am not talking to you oh well doosh bag learn
Some one here asks a question, and thats what you post?
i am not talking to you oh well doosh bag learn >>
WOW! So, you are a troll?
I could care less who you are talking to you foul mouth punk. If I was your dad Id wash your mouth out with MS70 and teach you manners.
Obviously you were instilled without these or anything remotely resembling reason or thought. Post on you smelly little troll.
I wonder if youll even be here in the a.m.
take it as a grain of salt i dont know someone said and grow up this is a forum dont base life on the E OK BUDDY
Likewise, a Liberty Nickel in MS 66 is often 1/3 to 40% of said coin in MS 67. The only difference between a high end 6 and a 7 is a contact mark (which is not hideous) on the V or said contact mark in the rt. field of the obverse. A similar analogy can be made between a Seated $ in 4 and one in 5. I like these coins.
I don't pay much attention to pop reports. For the most part, you can't believe them. Regarding the coins on which you can believe them, I can't afford these coins anyway.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
PLEASE, for the love of GOD, stop talking, & go crank your oven to 425 and put your head in it.
Your an idiot and useless to humanity.
I apologize in place of the troll. I didnt mean for your thread to get derailed this way. Im at part guilty, just like the troll, but I unlike it, have a normal thought process.
Please forgive the stupid, as they know not what they do.
Back to your questions and your thread...
Some stinkin body needs to get a life
or a woman.
Seems Ive offended you?
Also, I have a great women thank you. Instead of posting anything useful, you attack my post count and when I got here?
Yea, youre a sharp one huh?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>Don't feed the troll. He wants attention. If he doesn't get it, he will hopefully go away. >>
Very true.
<< <i>Don't feed the troll. He wants attention. If he doesn't get it, he will hopefully go away. >>
https://www.smallcopperguy.com
Trolls....those who want to treat this message board like some outcast Yahoo Finance board....NOT welcome. Grow up, write decently and treat others with respect.
StinkinLinclon......shows a good grasp of the ethics of this board, and has a satirical wit and humor that those with a similar bent can understand (like me). He knows coins and understands how to communicate. I enjoy his input and probably like me works hard but has some time now and then to pop in here and check (and comment) on the posts.
<< <i>Northcoin, dont fall for that hype unless you see with a learned eye that the coin has a possibilty of upgrading. Recently, an MS65RD 1909 S IHC pulled in huge money...just because it was generally recognized that an upgrade was very very possible. But, for the most part, as you will learn from reading the writings of QDB, buying one grade below a huge jump makes a lot of sense. The other side of the coin applies though if you are in high stakes registry, where that PLASTIC makes more value for you than the coin inside. Then, paying the big money for the MS68 top pop may be worth it to you, even though a very similar MS67 may be 1/3 of the pricetag.
Trolls....those who want to treat this message board like some outcast Yahoo Finance board....NOT welcome. Grow up, write decently and treat others with respect.
StinkinLinclon......shows a good grasp of the ethics of this board, and has a satirical wit and humor that those with a similar bent can understand (like me). He knows coins and understands how to communicate. I enjoy his input and probably like me works hard but has some time now and then to pop in here and check (and comment) on the posts. >>
Thanks for the meaningful response. The one part of the original question that no one has yet responded to though is with regard to the subject coin X's value when you go to sell. By the way, the original question was not hypothetical. There was a coin offered yesterday via email that was being promoted as being a great value just because there was a huge price jump for the grade above it. It happened to be a Carson City Morgan in MS65 for something close to $5,000, while a MS66 would be priced at something close to $20,000.
<< <i>
<< <i>Northcoin, dont fall for that hype unless you see with a learned eye that the coin has a possibilty of upgrading. Recently, an MS65RD 1909 S IHC pulled in huge money...just because it was generally recognized that an upgrade was very very possible. But, for the most part, as you will learn from reading the writings of QDB, buying one grade below a huge jump makes a lot of sense. The other side of the coin applies though if you are in high stakes registry, where that PLASTIC makes more value for you than the coin inside. Then, paying the big money for the MS68 top pop may be worth it to you, even though a very similar MS67 may be 1/3 of the pricetag.
Trolls....those who want to treat this message board like some outcast Yahoo Finance board....NOT welcome. Grow up, write decently and treat others with respect.
StinkinLinclon......shows a good grasp of the ethics of this board, and has a satirical wit and humor that those with a similar bent can understand (like me). He knows coins and understands how to communicate. I enjoy his input and probably like me works hard but has some time now and then to pop in here and check (and comment) on the posts. >>
Thanks for the meaningful response. The one part of the original question that no one has yet responded to though is with regard to the subject coin X's value when you go to sell. By the way, the original question was not hypothetical. There was a coin offered yesterday via email that was being promoted as being a great value just because there was a huge price jump for the grade above it. It happened to be a Carson City Morgan in MS65 for something close to $5,000, while a MS66 would be priced at something close to $20,000. >>
<< <i>OK, X coin is promoted as being the bargain of the century because is is valued at $5,000 in MS65 while Y coin in MS66 is valued at $20,000. Except for the grade both coins are identical. Never mind that Y coin only has a population of 10 while X coin is one of 100 or more. Is this really the bargain that it appears to be on the surface? Setting aside the crack-out prospects (since one can assume that X coin has probably already reached its maximum grade via multiple submissions) in reality do coins that are on the edge really promise a future bump in value just because they are close to a census rarity? What has been your experience when you go to sell such a coin, did it increase in value just because it rubbed shoulders with a "rarity" or did it remain relatively valued just where it was when you bought it? >>
If you don't want to spend 20K your choice is get the cheaper coin or something that costs less if you want a top grade. Then your decision is based on comparing the other alternative.
I think buying the coin you like at the price you like often does best even if you sell it. (as opposed to buying based on expected trends)
and I'm not sure I would even want the 69, in most cases
When we are talking about ANY coin that exists yet in mint packaging or in the hands of general collectors...the very real and actual possibility of a huge increase in any top pop population always looms.
My mind is telling me.....DONT buy any coins less than 100 years of age. In the case of your CC example, maybe that top pop is of genuine value.
We sold a pretty significant rarity this year to a knowledeble collector building a set. The coin was in a PCGS AU-55 holder. We thought that the coin was very fresh for the grade with only a bit of high point friction. We graded the coin AU-58, and a nice one at that. However, we didn't resubmit it because there is really no spread in price from AU-55 to AU-58, only when the coin reaches Mint State. Well the collector purchased the coin for fairly strong money. He then submitted his entire set to PCGS for regrade, and presto, the coin grades MS-60. It was a big monetary hit for him.
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<< <i>It just depends on the individual coin itself, the price spread, and the populations.
We sold a pretty significant rarity this year to a knowledeble collector building a set. The coin was in a PCGS AU-55 holder. We thought that the coin was very fresh for the grade with only a bit of high point friction. We graded the coin AU-58, and a nice one at that. However, we didn't resubmit it because there is really no spread in price from AU-55 to AU-58, only when the coin reaches Mint State. Well the collector purchased the coin for fairly strong money. He then submitted his entire set to PCGS for regrade, and presto, the coin grades MS-60. It was a big monetary hit for him. >>
Nice story. Thanks.
<< <i>I always try to buy a coin at the highest grade before the big price jump at the next higher grade. I believe this represents the best value for my limited collecting budget. >>
Bingo - this was QD Bowers' philosophy, and I tried to follow suit. My registry set is called "Greg's Good Value Walker Collection". Though I'm not opposed to adding a higher grade piece if I find a good price on the coin.
<< <i>I always try to buy a coin at the highest grade before the big price jump at the next higher grade. I believe this represents the best value for my limited collecting budget. >>
When you have gone to sell has this belief been validated?
<< <i>It just depends on the individual coin itself, the price spread, and the populations.
We sold a pretty significant rarity this year to a knowledeble collector building a set. The coin was in a PCGS AU-55 holder. We thought that the coin was very fresh for the grade with only a bit of high point friction. We graded the coin AU-58, and a nice one at that. However, we didn't resubmit it because there is really no spread in price from AU-55 to AU-58, only when the coin reaches Mint State. Well the collector purchased the coin for fairly strong money. He then submitted his entire set to PCGS for regrade, and presto, the coin grades MS-60. It was a big monetary hit for him. >>
I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder.
As for the original question, "do these cusp coins garner a higher value" I think that is a good question and I do not know the answer and have not seen one posted yet. Regardless, I try to follow QDBs advice and go for coins just below the major jump in price, not because they are worth more than I pay but because they are a good value at that grade.
Regarding trolls, here is a good article in the NYT that explains them well. Bottom line, ignore. They exist only for the angst they create.
Trolls Explored
<< <i>I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder. >>
I have had this exact same thing happen, so I would not say NEVER.
<< <i>
<< <i>I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder. >>
I have had this exact same thing happen, so I would not say NEVER. >>
Wow. I guess I can see that - I remember a trade dollar that I thought was actually MS that was in an AU58 holder. I thought it was net graded for too many marks - but that calls into question the original 58 grade, doesn't it?
An AU58, if MS, should jump to at least 63.
<< <i>I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder. >>
I've had an MS60 end up in a PF58 holder... and it wasn't even sent in for regrade... that's one helluva mechanical error
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder. >>
I have had this exact same thing happen, so I would not say NEVER. >>
Wow. I guess I can see that - I remember a trade dollar that I thought was actually MS that was in an AU58 holder. I thought it was net graded for too many marks - but that calls into question the original 58 grade, doesn't it?
An AU58, if MS, should jump to at least 63. >>
Actually the original grade was 55. The seller thought it was a 58. Even more amazing.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I find this hard to believe. MS60 is a very unusual grade and an AU58 would NEVER end up in an MS60 holder. >>
I have had this exact same thing happen, so I would not say NEVER. >>
Wow. I guess I can see that - I remember a trade dollar that I thought was actually MS that was in an AU58 holder. I thought it was net graded for too many marks - but that calls into question the original 58 grade, doesn't it?
An AU58, if MS, should jump to at least 63. >>
Actually the original grade was 55. The seller thought it was a 58. Even more amazing. >>
And returning to to the original inquiry, and setting aside the implications of getting an upgrade, do coins that are simply a grade below top pops really benefit on sale from being so close to rarity?