Gold Down Over $20 - PM Worrywarts enter HERE
jmski52
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Gold down over $20 today. Ouch, that hurts! I've been waiting to buy, but now I'm scared. They say it's in a trading range. They say that the economy and unemployment aren't going down "as fast" now. They say that the stock market is on a bull run.
What to do, what to do? Buy, then Sell? Sell, then Buy? Wait and buy later, or wait and sell later? If gold doesn't break $1,000 then it's "stuck"? Maybe it's a triangle. Maybe it's a teacup. Maybe it's a reverse head and shoulders. Maybe it's above (or below) it's 50-day (or its 200-day) moving average trendline. Oh my.
Um, might I just say one thing, guys?
R-E-L-A-X
Average in. It won't be as traumatizing. And you won't be sorry.
What to do, what to do? Buy, then Sell? Sell, then Buy? Wait and buy later, or wait and sell later? If gold doesn't break $1,000 then it's "stuck"? Maybe it's a triangle. Maybe it's a teacup. Maybe it's a reverse head and shoulders. Maybe it's above (or below) it's 50-day (or its 200-day) moving average trendline. Oh my.
Um, might I just say one thing, guys?
R-E-L-A-X
Average in. It won't be as traumatizing. And you won't be sorry.
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I knew it would happen.
I knew it would happen.
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Comments
1000 in the short term or a year or two...
but otherwise it is just another sign that people who thought that gold
would be firmly above 1000 already were just plain wrong. it went up
in leaps and bounds and now is falling in leaps and bounds. 20 dollar
a day movements on a 950 dollar ounce of gold is not a very high percentage
move. Seems quite typical. Now a 5% move in either direction would
be exciting and worth worrying over one way or another.
still i was surprised to see it so high again and was shown i was wrong
in the short term. silver too. it still has some interesting times ahead
for some exciting movements.
> R-E-L-A-X
Yeah, right. It all depends on your time frame. I once thought $4.00 and $170.00 were incredibly high prices. Today, I'm a bit over extended on the long side in a much narrower time frame, getting my but kicked. However, I've ridden the waves long enough to know appearances can be deceiving. One wild card with gold and silver, in the immediate time frame, more so than in years past, is geopolitics. No human looking at any chart can say with certainty exactly what will happen next.
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<< <i>If gold went to 700, the premium would be like 150+ or so, so you would still be paying 800+! Look at what happened when silver went to 10 and gold went down to the 800s. The premiums made them still extremely high. Spot price and paying actual price do not go hand to hand. >>
They go exactly hand to hand with the Mint's new pricing policy
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<< <i>Didn't you say you were forced to sell 2 oz of gold couple days ago for $200 under spot? Now you have 20k to buy more?
I never said I was forced to sell I was considering selling 2 ounces and buying back when the price dropped a bit. I didn't sell because the price offer from the dealer was a low one. I do believe the price of gold will rebound this fall or early winter and go above $1000. But buying any more above $900. just doesn't work for me. $800.-$820 is much more workable!.
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I think there were very few people around here who thought $1000 was coming this month, not that it still can't. But we wouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth if the COT wanted to hand $1000/oz over. The move up to $990 was actually rather sedate with lots of churning in the $860-$930 range. The down move so far seem rather controlled as well. Like jmski52, I'm about worn out from all the tea cups, bull flags, head and shoulders, bull hammers, and spinning tops as well.
The premiums made them still extremely high. Spot price and paying actual price do not go hand to hand.
Exactly. If gold drops to $865 again one might find that the price per oz of physical is almost the same as when it was at $950. The dealers and investors holding the bullion on the way down are not going to be inclined to dump it at paper Comex prices. I'm surprised that the generic gold premiums have continued to stay firm or advance over the past several days as gold fell under $950. I don't know if its contrived or there is real demand soaking up everything, even as the pog goes down. Generics have typically lagged the gold price so we shall see how things hold up.
roadrunner
I get some customers in the shop , same all the time, they come in bragging about how much they want to invest and talking putting big bucks into gold, and buy an oz or two, and then the price drops 20 bucks or so like today, and they run scared for the exits. A literal panic!!!
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It is kind of hard to fathom, gold being sort of flat as the R and C of BRIC seem to feel that some kind of world currency is in order and the C particularly think there should be some Chinese money in the game...maybe a lot of it. R is thinkin' that there should be some kind of better currency to trade with too (not the euro) but so far, not much has happened though it would be a shock if C does end up swapping a bunch of USD for a more internationally exchangable, less US economy dependent currency in concert with leaving the US bond market even at 4.5% interest because 4.5% of nutin still be nutin...it's about the money.
Then there's all those extra buks that we've either put in play or gone into hock for, a seemingly endless series of debt obligations that we really don't have enough domestic product to justify but press on anyway and hurry up with it too. Of course, that's one of the reasons for the R and C situation also...it's just not that hard to see.
Of course, Iran could go domestic revolution too, again. And N. K. could push the wrong launch button, piss somebody off real bad, and be wiped out of existence and no one would really care to own a radioactive parking lot. Oops, then there's that pesky mid east situation, the two state situation and that is separate from the Iraq/Afghanistan or the African situation (where's the Phantom when you need him?).
Yet, gold holds firm at 950, nothing seems to move it. The flippers can't flip, the shorts got to be runnin' scared or maybe just enjoying a quick moment in the sun after a lot of darkness, the longs are frustrated from lack of direction, the pundits are preaching their little hearts out yet, it sits...immune to the pettiness going on around it. Pushed one way just as hard as it is pulled another, being manipulated as hard as it is getting played; miners are minin' and melters are meltin' and dealers are dealin'; plenty of manouvering around but...it's stuck in the range again. The thing is that many of the players like to work it as a commodity but it's not really a commodity...you can't eat it like corn or pork bellies, what little bit of industrial use is almost insignificant in light of the tons and tons of gold in storage, and you can't really make anything of significance out of it other than a few bangles. The highest and best use of gold is as bullion and coinage. It's not really a commodity eventhough folk like to work it as one; it begs a more reflective treatment, the well timed patience of gathering a little every now and then tempered with a willingness to walk away from it (at least some of it) at a moments notice. It's sure nice to have a solid, liquid asset for these troubled times; one that resist being mess with so well.
I actually do think that gold will easily be above $1,000 in the near term and beyond. However, that isn't why I favor "averaging in".
The point is, I could be wrong. I think that there is another possibility that gold goes down along with stocks, bonds, real estate and everything else. My thought is that if this does occur, gold won't fall nearly as far and in relative terms it would still be the best option. So, in that scenario, $750 gold would be a major winner. I give that scenario about a 20% chance of happening.
The other 80% likelihood I see as an acceleration of inflation. The money's got to come from somewhere to pay for our brave new world. Doesn't it? In that scenario, I don't care what price gold is, because the price in dollars will be mostly a moot point, if the dollar is trending to zero.
If the Fed is "buying" US Treasuries, then dollars essentially have no backing. Worse, they are becoming a financial derivative in their own right. As the BRIC nations move away from dollar trading and dollar commitments, the dollar's safety net is unravelling. The blowup will leave dollars valueless, and gold does offer an alternative. Silver might be better, but gold's still the prime money.
My opinion, of course.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Doesn't bother me at all - the gold in my portfolio is actually treated like an insurance policy. If the price of gold collapses to $500, it means that everything else I've got will at least retain its value (such as my pension). If on the other hand, inflation takes off, then gold should also take off which would balance things out. So, the day-to-day fluctuations don't cause me to lose any sleep. >>
Ditto. 'Cept I have gold in my portfolio, and I have gold in my holdings. The portfolio = emotionless objects. It's awesome to know it's there, but I (try to) treat it as if it's just another asset. It's a mutual fund statement, a CD receipt, a yellowing old EE bond.
The gold in my holdings are various coins and other clutter. It's the stuff I play with, the stuff I ogle when I need a fix.
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