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Underrated Players

markj111markj111 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭
From Joe Posnanski

04 Jun 2009 Baseball Print This Post

Underrated is a Zen place to be. What I mean by that is you can only be underrated for as long as people do not notice that you are underrated. Once someone starts calling you underrated, you begin to lose your footing. When enough people start calling you underrated, you stop being underrated. And when you become known as the “most underrated anything,” well, the jig is up.


Take Adrian Gonzalez. I would say there’s a pretty good chance that at this exact moment in time he’s the most underrated player in baseball. He has put up a 125 OPS+ each of the last three years without too many people noticing. He has averaged 30 home runs per year even though he plays half his games in a stadium about the size of Greenland — he’s hit two thirds of those homers on the road. He has won a Gold Glove. He seems to play the game hard, if you are the type to measure those sorts of things.

Since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Player A: .282/.362/.527 with 88 homers, 262 RBIs, 139 OPS+.
Player B: .294/.368/.517 with 68 homers, 287 RBIs, 137 OPS+.
Player C: .260/.361/.565 with 110 homers, 325 RBIs, 134 OPS+

Player A is Adrian Gonzalez. Player B is Justin Morneau. Player C is Ryan Howard.

Let’s just say, for argument’s sake, that Gonzalez is the most underrated player in baseball. Well, now Gonzalez is having a huge year. Huge. Leading baseball in home runs. And a bunch of people write about it. “Adrian Gonzalez: Underrated Star!” More people write about it. Someone says something on television: “It’s ridiculous how little acclaim Adrian Gonzalez gets! Guy’s the most underrated player in the game.” People start bringing signs to the ballpark: “Yo Adrian! We Don’t Underrate You!“ And soon, it’s like “It’s A Wonderful Life:” Every time Gonzalez rings the bell, Adrian gets called underrated.

And that’s the end of that. Once someone becomes known as wildly underrated, once that becomes his reputation, well, the whole thing just seems silly.

You will ask why I bring this up. Well, here’s why: I think Lefty Grove is the most underrated player in baseball history. Why? Because he’s the one player I know who is permanently underrated. It doesn’t matter how many people point out that he might be the best pitcher in baseball history. It doesn’t matter how many times you point out his preposterous numbers. It doesn’t matter. He stays in the shadows of baseball history.

Here are the latest results from an ESPN poll on the best left-handed pitcher of all time (pointed out by brilliant reader Mickey):

1. Sandy Koufax, 58%
2. Randy Johnson, 20%
3. Warren Spahn, 9%
4. Steve Carlton, 8%
5. Lefty Grove, 5%

Now, look, all five of those pitchers were great. And this is not a poll of baseball experts of anything, this is everyone — hardcore baseball fans, softcore baseball fans (?), people who think every fly ball is a home run, people who scream balk when a pitcher whirls to throw to second, kids who have been following baseball since May of 2007, people who have not seen a baseball game since 1973 and wonder why there aren’t be more players like Felix Milan.

And so, you can understand the results. Koufax has become mythical. Unit is about to win 300. Spahn is the answer to the trivia question, Which lefty won the most games? Carlton, well, he was called “Lefty” and he played more recently and more people have probably heard of him than Grove. Which is bloody remarkable, I would just like to point out:

Steve Carlton: .574 winning percentage, 115 ERA+.
Lefty Grove: .680 winning percentage, 148 ERA+.

That doesn’t seem especially close, does it? Carlton was a great pitcher, no doubt, but this is a bit like someone asking for the best lefty hitters ever, and someone picking Rod Carew over Babe Ruth.

The thing about Grove is not just that he’s better than anyone on the list. He beats all of them at their own game. What I mean is, well, Steve Carlton is probably best known for his amazing 1972 season, when he won 27 games for a last place team. It’s one of the greatest seasons in baseball history: Most wins, best ERA, most strikeouts, best ERA+, best strikeout to walk ratio. Incredible.

Well, Grove probably had two or three years that were better than that. Take 1930 — which was not Grove’s best season — he had the most wins, best ERA, most strikeouts, best ERA+, best strikeout to walk ratio, best WHIP and, oh yeah, he also led the league in saves. I realize it was a different era, and saves were not even a statistic. However, I would like to say that again: He also led the league in saves.

Sandy Koufax is known for his great peak from 1963-66. And it was remarkable. He had a 1.86 ERA over those four years, and had more strikeouts than innings pitched. But, you have to point out that he was pitching in one of the greatest pitching parks ever, from a mound roughly the height of the Chrysler Building, in the greatest pitcher time since Deadball.

Truth is, Grove’s peak from 1929-1932 might have been even better.

Koufax: 92-27, .782 winning percentage, 1.86 ERA, 1,192 innings, 1,228 Ks, 172 ERA+.
Grove: 104-25, .806 winning percentage, 2.56 ERA, 1,146 innings, 742 Ks, 176 ERA+.

You will notice that Grove’s ERA is quite a bit higher, but his ERA+ is better and his winning percentage is better. That’s because he pitched in a hitters’ ballpark in a hitters’ era. But here’s the truly amazing thing: While those four years more or less make up Koufax’s career, Grove went 24-8 the year BEFORE his peak, and he went 24-8 the year AFTER his peak.

Spahn’s calling card was durability and his ability to win games. He won 20 or more game an amazing 13 times. Incredible. But here’s how many times he won more than 23 games in a season: Zero. Grove did it five times.

Spahn was an amazing old pitcher — from age 35 to 42 he won 167 games with a 119 ERA+.

Grove, from ages 35-39, reinvented himself as a pitcher. And he went 83-41 with a 174 ERA. Think about that for a minute … for those five years, as an old pitcher, Grove had a better ERA+ than Sandy Koufax’s peak.

Finally, there’s Randy Johnson, who I think has his own case as the greatest pitcher. Great peak, great career, durable pitcher, there with Nolan and Pedro as greatest strikeout starter ever. Grove, though, has a better ERA, better ERA+, better win percentage, and so on.

Here’s one: Randy Johnson won four ERA titles. Warren Spahn won three ERA titles. Steve Carlton won one ERA title. Lefty Grove won more than all three put together. He won nine ERA titles.

Here’s one: Lefty Grove went 31-4 in 1931 — he’s the only lefty since 1900 to win 30 games. But as mentioned, he won 28 games the year before that — none of the other four lefties won 28 games in a season.

Here’s one: In 1928, when Grove was a ferocious strikeout pitcher, he struck out the side on nine pitches. Twice. Koufax and Nolan Ryan are the only other two men to pull the trick twice … but they didn’t do it in the same year.

Here’s one: Lefty Grove had ELEVEN seasons where he had a 150 ERA+ or better. Nobody else has had even 10. Koufax had four; Spahn had two, Carlton had five — so if you add up those three, yeah, you get to Lefty Grove.

And so on. Here’s another thing about Grove: He did not pitch in the big leagues until he was 25. People will talk about how good Koufax would have been had he not retired at age 30, and it’s true. But what if Grove had come up at 21 or 22? He signed with the Baltimore Orioles, then a minor league team, in 1920, and for the next five years he was probably already the best pitcher in the world. But the Orioles owner would not sell him to the big leagues*. Grove won exactly 300 games … but how many would he have won had he come up to the big leagues two or three years earlier?

*Wouldn’t it be great if some minor league team simply refused to let a player go to the big leagues today. LIke, say the owner of the Norfolk Tides said, “Uh, nope, we’re not letting Matt Wieters go.” I realize that the minor leagues don’t have anything like that sort of power now, but I wish some crazed minor league owner would try it in some sort of Dog Day Afternoon desperation move.

It’s always hard comparing players of different eras. Grove played in that era before Jackie Robinson. But he also played in an era of preposterous offensive numbers. He played in an era with limited travel. But he also played in an era of day games. He played in an era before intense media scrutiny, which is probably good because by all accounts Lefty Grove was one mean son-of-a-gun.

Bill James, in his Baseball Abstract, ranked Grove the second best pitcher in baseball history behind Walter Johnson. But he made the point that by other measurements, Grove could certainly be considered No. 1 too. Since then, Greg Maddux has won his 300th game, Roger Clemens has won his 300th game, Randy Johnson is about to win his 300th game and Pedro Martinez finished off the greatest peak, I think, in baseball history. So it’s hard to find Grove’s place.

But if people keep insisting on looking back on baseball history as one long continuum — if people keep insisting that Babe Ruth is the greatest baseball player ever, Ted Williams the greatest pure hitter ever,
Joe DiMaggio a player of incomparable grace … well, it seems to me that Lefty Grove should finish better than fifth in a poll of greatest lefties ever.

Comments

  • jaxxrjaxxr Posts: 1,258 ✭✭
    Excellent post about Robert Moses "Lefty" Grove,

    A reasonable case can be presented, that he was THE best pitcher of all time, regardless of his exact position, no one with any real knowledge of baseball history, would not consider him among an small, elite group of the finest hurlers ever.

    As for active players, being under/over rated, it is difficult to properly evaluate their place in baseball history, as they are a work in progess, slumps, streaks, PEDS, other possibilities, may happen and vastly change today's opinion.

    image
    This aint no party,... this aint no disco,.. this aint no fooling around.
  • frankhardyfrankhardy Posts: 8,098 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think Derek Jeter is very underrated. image

    Shane

  • If you are going to tell me if someone is overrated or underrated, do not spend much time telling me how good or bad they are. Instead tell me how other people rate them. At least more than one silly poll

    To me, when people who don't know anything about the sport rate someone inaccurately, it is not a good case that they are overrated or underrated. No question Grove is top five ever and I have yet to see anyone come up with a well-thought out analysis saying that isn't true.

    "Once someone becomes known as wildly underrated, once that becomes his reputation, well, the whole thing just seems silly"
    "It doesn’t matter how many people point out that he might be the best pitcher in baseball history"

    Other than being rubbed the wrong way by that, it was well presented article

    Maybe most overlooked would be a better term

    I also really hate the idea of breaking up pitchers into left-handed and right-handed

    The K/BB ratio is amazing. He led the league eight times. The five starters with the best ratio in history, Schilling, Martinez, Sheets, Santana and Lieber combined to lead the league 10 times
    Tom
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