Pring: Gold could be on the verge of a historic breakout
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
Noted technician Martin Pring is quoted on several sites, saying gold may be on the verge of a historic breakout.
Search of: martin pring gold 2009
turns up several sites with the quote.
"Gold could be on the verge of a historical breakout. Watch that $990-1,000 area like a hawk."
Pring has written a plethora of books mostly on technical analysis and related subjects.
Search of: martin pring gold 2009
turns up several sites with the quote.
"Gold could be on the verge of a historical breakout. Watch that $990-1,000 area like a hawk."
Pring has written a plethora of books mostly on technical analysis and related subjects.
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Comments
Pring is only one of thousands of technicians and traders who are aware of the inverse H&S formation that has been building since March 2008. There are also identical formations in effect from 1980 and Feb 2009. 3 total. That's a lot of reinforcement all converging together.
roadrunner
If it breaks 1008, you should see 1300 fairly quickly.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
roadrunner
How can gold not react? It looks to me like anyone who has the means is trying to remove some cash from the table (in the form of gold) before the other players begin to notice...............
Everyone seems to know what's going on. Nobody wants to say it, or worse yet - everyone seems immobilized by denial, hoping that everything will continue humming along if nobody winces, much. I think that the rush to the exits will be something we've never seen before. Denial never works.
I knew it would happen.
/edit to add: the term "historic breakout" is open to interpretation. To some, even a marginal new high for gold to $1100 would qualify as "historic." To others, it might mean a typical 20% move up from a base, using the dip down to $700 as the measurement to $1300, as some on the thread are writing about. To me, it means something that I have mentioned many times on this forum, a rocketship launch on huge volume on earth shattering news that takes gold to $3000 within a year.
Some people might consider $850 as the historic breakout, but that would only be the case if:
1) inflation hadn't rendered that price point meaningless during the intervening 29 years.
2) the price of gold had established a baseline somewhere in the range of $700 back then, which it didn't.
Further, I think that talking about a historic breakout in gold is a misnomer - it's really a historic breakdown in the dollar and in the financial structure that we've become accustomed to living within.
I agree with you, Tiger - only a rocketship launch will bring the pog in line with reality. I think the ignition is burning as we speak.
I knew it would happen.
Not saying it would be manic( ie. irrational), BUT, I have learned to NEVER underestimate a mania.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> I don't think we'll necessarily get to $1300 quickly once $1008 is broken. It could literally take to the fall or early in 2010 to take out the $1300+ level
Not saying it would be manic( ie. irrational), BUT, I have learned to NEVER underestimate a mania. >>
I agree. There's a restaraunt called Burger Mania in town, and I totally underestimated that place. They don't just have burgers, they have a full Mexican menu plus a full concession stand menu. It's absolute mayhem in there.
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>Premature...How about we let it eclipse April 2008 benchmarks first? >>
I'd say no problem by the end of June.
The rise in the price of gold makes the old $20 circulated Liberties a better buy in a relative sense as their premiums versus melt value gets narrower and narrower?
Camelot
But I don't see gold breaking 1000. I see it failing at the 1000 level twice, and I see it failing to make 1000 on a third try.
If technical analysis is anything like baseball, that's three swings...
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
A touch of Cohodk's up trend line in the $920-$930 region, then back to test $980-$990, and then it's time for $1000 to take its final curtain call as gold heads for $1125+. This happens in 2009. It could happen in June/July or Sept/October or November/December. But it looks like an odds on favorite at this point.
roadrunner
<< <i>I agree with cohodk's thinking. he wrote: "1000 is the neckline of the H&S. If it breaks 1008, you should see 1300 fairly quickly."
But I don't see gold breaking 1000. I see it failing at the 1000 level twice, and I see it failing to make 1000 on a third try.
If technical analysis is anything like baseball, that's three swings... >>
3rd time is usually the charm, but it's not uncommon to blow through a level on a 4th attempt. You can't write it off yet.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
roadrunner
"Will you be there with me at $1002? $1008? $1025? $1035? $1050? $1100? At what point will you be "sure" this is going to be a new bull run and just not another bounce back or bull trap as we had in Feb? When will MoneyLA's LA money be committed?"
For the record, I want to see a break out to a new high. With gold today down to $950 my commitment is at least $50 away.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i>"Will you be there with me at $1002? $1008? $1025? $1035? $1050? $1100? At what point will you be "sure" this is going to be a new bull run and just not another bounce back or bull trap as we had in Feb? When will MoneyLA's LA money be committed?" >>
<< <i>For the record, I want to see a break out to a new high. With gold today down to $950 my commitment is at least $50 away. >>
So when are you 'in'? You do a fabulous job evading RR's question. Are you in at $1008? $1025? $1035? $1050? $1100?
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
roadrunner
roadrunner
but with gold back to the 930s I am a great distance from committing to gold again.
Sure you could buy now but why? Why get whipsawed? why risk a further sell off? why tie up your capital in an asset which is not performing?
gold ain't performing guys. it did have its run before, but right now there is "no new run."
you don't have to be in a market all the time to profit in that market. because sellers can make money, and those on the sidelines can make money.
there will come a time to buy gold... but this isn't the time, unless you want to roll the dice. And I'd rather roll dice at Caesars Palace than in the gold market... because at Caesars I get comped rooms and meals and free drinks.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
<< <i> And I'd rather roll dice at Caesars Palace than in the gold market... because at Caesars I get comped rooms and meals and free drinks. >>
Don't forget: Rio, Harrahs, Flamingo, Ballys, ParisParis, Imperial Palace ... all part of the Harrahs Chain ...( ShowBoat in AC)
You're missing the obvious here. The bullion banks make money on gold by buying on weakness (buying longs/dumping shorts) and selling on strength (selling longs, buying shorts). And they are the consistent winners in the gold market in both up and down moves. These guys won't be buying gold long on a new breakout bull market in gold at $1025, $1050 or even $1100. They will be consistant and profitable sellers all the way up that chain since they bought most of the dips on the way down. I guess they forgot to read Weinstein.
roadrunner
<< <i>I will be back into the gold market when gold breaks out to new highs, and in a convincing way. A new high by a few dollars is not convincing, but a break out and then a test of the old high MIGHT be convincing. I have to see what the market looks like, both technically and fundamentally.
but with gold back to the 930s I am a great distance from committing to gold again.
Sure you could buy now but why? Why get whipsawed? why risk a further sell off? why tie up your capital in an asset which is not performing?
gold ain't performing guys. it did have its run before, but right now there is "no new run."
you don't have to be in a market all the time to profit in that market. because sellers can make money, and those on the sidelines can make money.
there will come a time to buy gold... but this isn't the time, unless you want to roll the dice. And I'd rather roll dice at Caesars Palace than in the gold market... because at Caesars I get comped rooms and meals and free drinks. >>
I have no idea why you are commenting on this thread in this fashion. After a few down moves of $20 or $50, you conclude "gold ain't performing." What does a $50 dip have to do with long term investors that have a long term price target of $3000 per ounce? Minor 5% moves are the province of futures and options traders, and more suited to the short term trading thread than my thread.
Correct me if I am off base, but I would guess that the next futures trade you place will be your first, same for gold options, no? So if what I write is correct and you are not a trader, that you only buy physical (and have only bought physical), why are you so seemingly obsessed on these short term minor moves? These 5% moves are basically meaningless noise to long term investors buying physical gold and building positions over time at an average price.
Physical gold is a solid part of a diversified portfolio. Folks can argue over the percentages, as I will disagree with others on the forum on the number, but most of the wise men will agree that gold or similar assets deserve a place at the table. With that in mind, I find the comments about rolling dice, comped rooms and free drinks, way out of place in a thread about long term price targets. Others may have a different view, but to me, long term investing isn't about rolling dice. It is not about bold, all-in, or all-out, bet the ranch tactics. That kind of gunslinger stuff is fine for 25 or 30 year olds, not so fine for those advancing in years, because so very few are going to make the right calls. Sound long term investing is about age appropriate asset allocation, diversification, and gradual moves where a person builds positions gradually and also takes profits gradually.
First, I prefer Caesars over the other Harrah's properties. I've stayed at the Rio, but the Rio needs a makeover, so does Harrah's itself. Paris just doesn't do it for me.
Roadrunner wrote: "The bullion banks..." and talked about their buying and selling. Gee, if I was a bank and trading large quantities of gold I would be active in the market also. But I'm not buying thousands of ounces, or hundreds of ounces, or even dozens of ounces, so I have to buy when there is the potential for a large move so I can make some profit after costs which include buying and selling premiums, taxes, and the opportunity cost of not having the same money in alternatives.
RedTiger wrote several key things, so let me break them down. First: "What does a $50 dip have to do with long term investors that have a long term price target of $3000 per ounce?" Well, my friend, I am not a long term investor. I'm 57 years old and at my age I no longer buy green bananas (okay, that's a joke). But the point is, why do I have to wait for an investment, and why do I have to risk that the investment will lose money in the short term even though there is a long term profit potential?
When gold starts to make a move to the upside that convinces me it's a significant move, I will be there. I was in gold before and made a profit. I am going to wait for the next profit opportunity. This ain't it. This is a trading range and, as I pointed out above, I can't make a profit making small investments in a trading range. I need a big move.
Now, if you're buying hundreds of ounces at a time, perhaps you can profit from moves of $25 or $50-- but I can't. And gold at $3,000 an ounce? Let's see gold at $1050 first.
Redtiger also wrote: "These 5% moves are basically meaningless noise to long term investors buying physical gold and building positions over time at an average price." I don't know about you, but 5% here and 5% there can add up. And why bother with such small, insignificant moves like those of today.
What I am looking for is the next opportunity like the one presented around January of '03. Look at the ten year chart. See the base building that preceded the cup and handle and then that break out? And that break out led to a home run for gold... from around $310 to more than $900. I sold around $945.
These moves since then have been insignificant for someone like me. But if you are trading hundreds or thousands of ounces, yes, you can make money in this trading range.
The chart for gold in the recent months has been a mess. I'm waiting for the next breakout. Until, you guys can have all the fun you want with the trading range, and with your dreams of $3,000 gold. I'm just waiting for something more modest... like $1050.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
So what if gold went up 40% BEFORE the stock market took off in March. And so what if gold made another 30% move since April. What's so bad about seeing gold stocks double or quadruple in those 2 runs? What's so bad about buying back gold stocks in later June at a 20-25% discount from late May? Heck, one could have made 4% today just buying yesterday's distressed gold stocks (or the ETF GDX) and selling them today. The total cost and fees involved in making a transaction is from $14-$45 depending on what type of on-line broker you use. I see that as insignificant when one is looking at 20-100% gains over days/weeks/a couple months. You don't need to trade thousands of ounces of "paper" gold like the bullion banks do. Rather you could have bought 100 shares of GDX at $30/share about 2 months ago and made 30-50% ($900-$1500) depending on when you jumped off. Net expense was still $50 max. I'm not sure what else would have performed as well unless you were in commodities or their parent companies or playing with riskier futures/options/or Fas/Faz.
I'm not clear at all what MoneyLA considers a current suitable and safe investment to be in (CD's, S&P index, commodities, muni-bonds, cash, interest rate swaps, currency plays, etc) that have good opportunity costs and an acceptable return. He's never really itemized any of his particular choices. But we do know it's not gold or anything related to gold/silver....at least not for the foreseeable future when gold is flying above $1000. Considering all the grief we take for trying to "trade" positions in gold-related items it would be comforting to know a single item trade that MoneyLA has recently completed or commenced (other than buying gold at $310 and selling at $950) where he has bought in "high" while awaiting a "higher high." Hopefully this information will be presented before he takes his next position on gold to ride it to the end of the rodeo.
roadrunner
I knew it would happen.
"and with your dreams of $3,000 gold. I'm just waiting for something more modest... like $1050. "
Not $3,000.00 Gold,...... but rather $6700.00-$7000.00 Gold .
The only thing I need to do is to figure out when to get out of long term gold and silver. Sell early and let the next guy make a few bucks, if he's lucky to get out just before the top.