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WILL NUMISMATIC AUCTIONS BE THE NEW DR. KEVORKIAN FOR THE AVERAGE COLLECTOR ?
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay
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Rare coins, in condition census,with high demand among
a few whales will do well. Less desirable coins, in lower
condition, may not do so well.
Camelot
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
Perhaps we will find out the answer to this excellent and timely question very soon. Very, very soon.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Stewart
average collector's are far from swimming and eating with whales
hehehe
now salmon or grunion runs...yeah
something tells me we'll just swim around beached whales and feed like always
"Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ? "
i more so think it would leave a sour taste to re-entering the future of coin collecting after eating those %'s
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
Dumb people do dumb things. This could be the numismatic version of the Darwin Awards.
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ? >>
Ignorant people and stupid people commit financial suicide on a daily basis. So, why should coin collecting be any different? Your scenario takes aim at those two types of people - not the "average collector". Unless your point is in fact that the average collector is either poorly educated or stupid. Further, people can be quite well informed and quite well educated and still need to dump holdings in order to bring some liquidity back into their domain. This is neither stupid nor ignorant - particularly if you believe the market has a good deal more "adjusting" to go through.
Finally, as others have pointed out, strong coins still demand strong money.
The auction company is after our coin and if it isn't rare, they care even less. It's about money, not coins.
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ? >>
if you mean numismatic suicide, i sure hope so. we need less deep pocket runing around the bourse
K S
I don't have a good "feel" for the coin market at the moment because I haven't been active in buying or selling for some time.
<< <i>
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
Perhaps we will find out the answer to this excellent and timely question very soon. Very, very soon. >>
Indeed. And I'd like to think that we will have a lot more clarity into the current market "very, very soon," but when I have thought this before the past few sales I just end up more confused afterwards. The interesting thing about this sale is all the unreserved mega-coins, which is something we haven't seen for awhile. Well, we will know more by the weekend.
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ? >>
If this starts happening to exceptional, PQ coins for the grade with unusually strong eye appeal, then I'd think the bottom has fallen out. Until then, the market is just adjusting to the rush to dump average, run-of-the-mill schlock (dare I say "widgets") at whatever cost necessary.
I haven't seen much indication that the best stuff with the strongest eye appeal is falling much. In fact, they may be getting stronger as many of the stronger hands who don't need to sell won't do so in this market, reducing the supply of top quality.
<< <i>BEAR -The whales are dying !
Stewart >>
That is an excellent point.
<< <i>He needs to get his ears checked if he believes the auction company knows what's best for him.
The auction company is after our coin and if it isn't rare, they care even less. It's about money, not coins. >>
ditto that!!
Barrytrot(2),Stupid,Savoyspecial,docq,ecoinquest, halfhunter,snman,Coll3ctor.
wondercoin. Blue594. internetjunky.
keepdachange. Scrapman1077.Ahrensdad, mrmom, mygrandeoso, blu62vette, Clackamas,giorgio11, adriana, cucamongacoin,
We have already seen this phenom in a few recent sales, and the results are mixed. For the big boys who are recent entries into the high finance of rare coins, and have acquired their collection in the last 3 boom years, there will be some pretty good losses.
But, for the longer holding periods, with nice "right" coins, I see very reasonable prices obtained at the larger venues. Reserved or not.
There is still a higher demand than supply for the rare original toned denominations.
Would I sell expensive coins in this market unreserved? Probably not, if they are slabbed by TPG's other than PCGS.
Double ditto...the Auction Companies have to have material to auction to stay in business. Their revenue might be down with lower hammer prices but they still need income coming through the door and it doesn't really matter in the end if the collector or whomever made a profit on the items or not.
K
<< <i>
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ? >>
If this starts happening to exceptional, PQ coins for the grade with unusually strong eye appeal, then I'd think the bottom has fallen out. Until then, the market is just adjusting to the rush to dump average, run-of-the-mill schlock (dare I say "widgets") at whatever cost necessary.
I haven't seen much indication that the best stuff with the strongest eye appeal is falling much. In fact, they may be getting stronger as many of the stronger hands who don't need to sell won't do so in this market, reducing the supply of top quality. >>
* paying full retail for average to below average coins
* buying coins hawked by "investment advisors"
* never did learn to grade
* never did develop relationships with dealers, instead buying from a single source, sometimes at well above market prices for the quality of the material
If the true auction prices are going to be that low, wouldn't most dealer offers be a cut lower than that? If that is the case, I would posit that the money is already lost because the coins were bought wrong. And if the owner can not find a "greater fool," to pay full retail for his average or below average coins, the music has stopped and he/she doesn't have a chair to sit on.
<< <i>If this starts happening to exceptional, PQ coins for the grade with unusually strong eye appeal, then I'd think the bottom has fallen out. >>
Dealer blogs like Laura Sperber’s and Doug Winter’s report that prices of even quality material are off 20% from last year. But 20% is based on retail prices and understates the decline since at auction 15% comes off the top as a buyer’s premium. So a 20% decline in the retail price is really a 30% decline to the seller.
Warren Mills’ blog noted that many dealers are only buying to fill want lists and are not risking their capital buying inventory on spec. So there goes a big chunk of liquidity from the market.
<< <i>Until then, the market is just adjusting to the rush to dump average, run-of-the-mill schlock (dare I say "widgets") at whatever cost necessary. >>
This is what the vast majority of collectors own. Based on the coins people post here, how many of them are stocking their bank vaults with superb gems? A few yes, including Mr. Blay who started this thread, but not most. It nice to repeat the “PQ, eye appealing, top 5% for grade” mantra but most folks can’t foot that bill and far fewer have both the grading savvy and self control to sit tight, buying nothing until the so-called “right” coin comes along.
I was perusing the board ATS and noted Mark Feld’s comments on the up-coming Heritage sale of a large $25 million collection. His observation was that the collector bought a lot of “labels” at the top of the market. Selling that today is what I think Mr. Blay was talking about.
CG
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
It depends on what your are selling. Anyone savvy enough to earn the money in the first place and to purchase coins wisely should be capable of deciding whether or not they need reserves. Like any other type of sale you need to listen to the professional (whether it be a auction house or realtor) while making the crucial decisions yourself.
Strong coins will sell well with or without reserves. Indifferent or unpopular coins may need the protection of a reserve.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
Post of the month
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
If so,I would suggest he doe's more "homework" with his collecting dollar...or get better advice from his dealer(s)
Then absolutely losing 30-60% would be inevitable.
Rob
Not if he needs the 30-60% to survive.
<< <i>Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide? >>
Are you referring to the "formula" as taking the auction house advice and selling for an expected 30-60% loss? Would this be what "The Average Collector" would expect on their coin collection? Would he HAVE to sell because he is a
<< <i>professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market >>
?
I believe we have all made some mistakes in investing and collecting but it sound like our professional here is a three time loser. I would further have to assume that his high school sweetheart just left town with the Cabaña boy and he was a victim of downsizing at work and his collection is all that's left.
Oh maybe I'm being too hard on the fellow.
<< <i>Take for example a professional who has lost considerable money in the stock market,he is also a coin collector. He decides he shall put his Numismatic holdings up for auction UNRESERVED
because the auction company tells him that is the best way to sell his collection. In this market he is sure to get Hammered. I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide ?
Stewart Blay >>
Gee, that me.
I put up unreserved 15 coins in the Ponterio auction in the recent CICF that just concluded. I got back about 40% of my investment. Hey no big deal to take a loss.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Stewart, this fellow beat you out on a few coins, so now is your chance at revenge. I hope you win your 1899 MS68RD Indian.
BTW, the Bust halves in this collection are incredible!
is that what the auction companies insists or
can there be a reserve?
BTW, the Bust halves in this collection are incredible!
The photos to me indicated a preponderence of toned NGC MS64-67 bust halves showing average eye appeal. And NGC coins as a rule have not been doing all that well at auction, even if solid for the grade. I have recent experience in this. TahoeDale is right when he says non-PCGS coins are weak. Even decent coins (ie not CAC quality but not overgraded) have been fetching at auction what they wholesaled for back in 2002-2004. Anything in the MS/PF 64-67 type arena lacking in quality for the grade will be fetching 50-70% of current bid with 60% being the norm. For every coin that does superbly in current auctions for whatever reason, there are ten others barely scraping buy.
I would be willing to bet the average collector would only get 30 to 60% of his investment. Do you think this is a formula for possible suicide?
Generally agree...esp with pre-1930 classic MS/PF coinage. The thing is, if the collector needs to sell I doubt they will be offered any more than they will net at auction. Most dealers won't even want to buy. They may take stuff on consignment but it could take a year or more to move any significant quantities. And the last thing a collector needs is to consign a group of coins to a dealer who ends up having liquidity problems because they can't sell their normal coins. And then you might end up with 0%. Caution is advised.
roadrunner
30%?? 60%??
Your pal, Goldbully
<< <i>It all depends on the type of coins and their condition.
Rare coins, in condition census,with high demand among
a few whales will do well. Less desirable coins, in lower
condition, may not do so well. >>
Strange that you put it that way.
Looking at the PCGS price guide's gainers and losers recently,
I found just the reverse. The high grade stuff was in the loser column
while mid-grade had the better percentage of gainers.
I don't understand it either.
JT
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
Of course not. The wealth was lost already, with or without an auction sale. Whether the losses were primarily caused by poor purchases or by the market is another issue entirely.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>There are two half dollars which he purchased against very strong reserves. He will take a bath on both unless he has a pro shill watching from behind the potted palm. Who was it who warned against noobs going it alone at auction? >>
Who would that be?
<< <i>No, sellers are usually smarter than that. And what do you mean "this market?" Regardless of the market conditions, quality sell coins sell for quality prices no matter what. Unless the seller is selling junk, he'd be just fine if he put his coins up on no reserve auctions. >>
Quality coins sell for quality prices. I agree. But if the seller paid significantly more than market price for those coins, and did the buying when the market was higher than it is now, he/she might lose a lot of money. A collector, dealer or investor can make or lose money on any coin or group of coins.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>
<< <i>BEAR -The whales are dying !
Stewart >>
That is an excellent point. >>
I'll believe that when I see it. The material I've followed @ the current Heritage Auction is pricey. Attractive old copper is as strong as it has ever been. The marginal material for the grade is heavily discounted. It has been this way for a good year, at least. I haven't seen anything I'd consider to be a bargain yet.
Please send me a PM when I can get a no-problem AU 50 Bust $ in a first World Slab, or a properly graded CBH in a PC 5 slab for $5-6K. At that point, I'll tell you that prices have come down.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>
<< <i>It all depends on the type of coins and their condition.
Rare coins, in condition census,with high demand among
a few whales will do well. Less desirable coins, in lower
condition, may not do so well. >>
Strange that you put it that way.
Looking at the PCGS price guide's gainers and losers recently,
I found just the reverse. The high grade stuff was in the loser column
while mid-grade had the better percentage of gainers.
I don't understand it either.
JT >>
Apparently a larger number of collectors for whom money is a concern are more willing to settle for mid-grade stuff.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>Seems like a lot of folks have been trying to sell the idea that this particular collector just way overpaid for many coins purchased... I don't buy that since there was at least one other person that was willing to pay the next lower bidding increment, right??? One person overpaying is one thing, but two folks willing to "overpay" at a given price level seems to me like a market retail price. >>
Another way of putting this is: at the auction a couple of years ago, the winners were the consignor, the auction house, and the underbidder.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
<< <i>Seems like a lot of folks have been trying to sell the idea that this particular collector just way overpaid for many coins purchased... I don't buy that since there was at least one other person that was willing to pay the next lower bidding increment, right??? One person overpaying is one thing, but two folks willing to "overpay" at a given price level seems to me like a market retail price. >>
Nope. The real market price is actually one increment over where the under under bidder drops out. That's why when I'm bidding on something in auction, I like to wait and feel how many bidders there are and when the second to last one drops out.
<< <i>
<< <i>Seems like a lot of folks have been trying to sell the idea that this particular collector just way overpaid for many coins purchased... I don't buy that since there was at least one other person that was willing to pay the next lower bidding increment, right??? One person overpaying is one thing, but two folks willing to "overpay" at a given price level seems to me like a market retail price. >>
Nope. The real market price is actually one increment over where the under under bidder drops out. That's why when I'm bidding on something in auction, I like to wait and feel how many bidders there are and when the second to last one drops out. >>
I agree!