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Investable Coin Ideas for next 2-5 Years?
advalorem
Posts: 227
I'm curious to hear what anybody has to hear on what sectors of the coin market offer the greatest profit potential. Yes, I'm looking to buy for profits in additon to collecting for the hobby. 
I'll go wherever the money can be made. I am somewhat discouraged by recent trends - maybe it's just me getting older.
I look at recent date Proof Quarter PCGS PR69 go for $15 and a PCGS PR70 (pick a state) go for $300. That doesn't quite make sense when a dealer is selling off 20-PR69's for $5 just to get the inventory out the door. Sending in a 100-coins at ten-bucks-a-pop hoping for a few 70's and trashing the rest for $10 doesn't make a lot of sense. 
The ASE's and Gold Eagles/Buffalos are beautiful coins.
Are there any specialities that are severly under priced right now? Or any specialities that you can forecast the public wanting in the future? I personally am focusing upon the PCGS ASE's, Gold Eagles (1-oz and fractional), Morgans, and a few favorites (eg 1921-D dime). I am also selectively trying to pick up the PCGS PR70 New York as people will pay up for that coin.
I believe that the US debt levels may force gold to move up over time. I may not be alone in that opinion.
Thanks for any thoughts.
I'll go wherever the money can be made. I am somewhat discouraged by recent trends - maybe it's just me getting older.
I look at recent date Proof Quarter PCGS PR69 go for $15 and a PCGS PR70 (pick a state) go for $300. That doesn't quite make sense when a dealer is selling off 20-PR69's for $5 just to get the inventory out the door. Sending in a 100-coins at ten-bucks-a-pop hoping for a few 70's and trashing the rest for $10 doesn't make a lot of sense. The ASE's and Gold Eagles/Buffalos are beautiful coins.
Are there any specialities that are severly under priced right now? Or any specialities that you can forecast the public wanting in the future? I personally am focusing upon the PCGS ASE's, Gold Eagles (1-oz and fractional), Morgans, and a few favorites (eg 1921-D dime). I am also selectively trying to pick up the PCGS PR70 New York as people will pay up for that coin.
I believe that the US debt levels may force gold to move up over time. I may not be alone in that opinion.
Thanks for any thoughts.
Very Positive BST Experience with: guitarwes, ibzman350, jmcu12, Bamafan27, OnlyGoldIsMoney
Reference: Coin Links
Reference: Coin Links
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series.
PQ coins that would look awesome in a type set. pick slightly better
dates to also catch possible series collectors.
no gold. no small coins.
Also, watch were the money goes. Some people really did quite well selling Polish and Russian coins over the last few years.
Apparently, I've done quite well the past few years in Wiener Cathedral medals.
Collecting:
Conder tokens
19th & 20th Century coins from Great Britain and the Realm
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
I cannot see how that coin, or a box of 20 of that coin, can do anything but appreciate until people stop collecting coins.
I've seen these in the past, but yesterday's thread was an eye popper. How much do these go for?
I personally believe that the world's concerted effort to reflate the economy by printing paper money will work and will be very hard to reverse. That means we will face inflation. So hard assets in general and gold in particular will do well.
<< <i>I know what area of the coin market has the most profit potential but I won't tell you what it is because I don't need the competition.
What if I buy you a cyber-beer?
Reference: Coin Links
If you believe gold will move, buy bullion. Common dated classic gold is a good place to enter when it is really beaten back.
The best coin profits can only be made through hard and long acquired knowledge. To be frank, you absolutely cannot compete with those who have committed to a popular classic coin area for a long time and have the resources to buy into it. At leats you cannot by going at it alone. You will never know if your purchases or winning bids were not truly stupid money. That doesn't say you cannot build a nice portfolio under the wings of a respectable and knowledgeable dealer. That's really the only way to go at it without many years of knowledge and likely expensive mistakes. The question then isn't posed here, unless the question is concerning which dealers are best.
That was about the best coin profits. There are other plays. From your OP, it looks like you want ones that are positive beta to gold. In that case, again, it is gold that works best.....unless you think, percentagewise, silver has more potential.
Generally, if I was doing a box of twenty sort of thing, high grade type coins, choosing semikey dates and short production types, each at points when they have been beaten down, seems like a good way to go. Type always sticks around but soemtimes takes years to responsibly liquidate and, with exceptional times, is best not sold off all together but at apportunistic times for each coin. Just my 0.16 bits FWIW (exactly 0.16 bits).
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The problem is once you start buying coins as an "investment" you are only going to get into trouble. The few winners will be outweighed by the many losers.
You are best to buy your coins based on what you think coin collectors really like. Just as in the classic 1921-D merc dime. Be selective and be diversified. Do not do too many moderns or too much of gold or too much of any one kind of coin.
Think like a coin collector and stay away from the "investor" mindset. You will do better in the long run which has to be at least 5 years, if not longer.
If you are talking "investment," look elsewhere.
<< <i>As a first step, I would strongly discourage you from seeking such advice from strangers in a chatroom. >>
odd, because i cannot think of a better place then here once you know the
people here for coin advice.
your local BM dealer? lol. right.
<< <i>Yes ask a pro. Consult the owner of your local B&M. He will be glad to sell you his finest coins. >>
Obviously an even worse idea.
In fact, asking anyone to tell you where to invest is foolish, whether we are talking about numismatics, or real estate or most anything else.
What I would suggest is that you identify an area of interest to you and then read and study and learn as much as you possibly can about it so that you can draw your own conclusions.
What is more important is learning how to grade, learning the typical retail and wholesale market prices for the coins, and developing relationships to get better access and better pricing. Do those three and a person will move into the group that tends to do well financially. Don't do those three, and odds are going to be tough to get to break even, much less make a profit. A person can control their effort in learning to grade, learning the market, and developing relationships. Whether prices go up, down or sideways is much more of a crap shoot.
Basically what I am saying is: Buy coins at the right price at the right quality, and have the right relationships, and those coins can be moved immediately for a profit. Buy them at the wrong price, wrong quality, and even if the market goes up, those coins may still be losers. Best to learn the skills in order to move into the first group. All the "dart throwing" (guessing as to the next hot series) in the world won't get a person very far without the skills. To develop the skills is going to take time, talent, and effort. If a person doesn't have the talent (the grading chops, the people skills), their potential is limited, but they will be able to limit their costs (and losses).
<< <i>Investable coin ideas for the next 2-5 years?
The problem is once you start buying coins as an "investment" you are only going to get into trouble. The few winners will be outweighed by the many losers.
You are best to buy your coins based on what you think coin collectors really like. Just as in the classic 1921-D merc dime. Be selective and be diversified. Do not do too many moderns or too much of gold or too much of any one kind of coin.
Think like a coin collector and stay away from the "investor" mindset. You will do better in the long run which has to be at least 5 years, if not longer. >>
Well said! Buying coins for investment purposes is like going to Vegas to make money. You might win, but the odds are stacked against you. You're better off collecting (and gambling) for the purpose of HAVING FUN. If you make money, great! If not, you enjoyed yourself anyway.
<< <i>Anyone can guess which coin will show the biggest price guide increases (or real auction price increases) during the next few years.
What is more important is learning how to grade, learning the typical retail and wholesale market prices for the coins, and developing relationships to get better access and better pricing. Do those three and a person will move into the group that tends to do well financially. Don't do those three, and odds are going to be tough to get to break even, much less make a profit. A person can control their effort in learning to grade, learning the market, and developing relationships. Whether prices go up, down or sideways is much more of a crap shoot.
Basically what I am saying is: Buy coins at the right price at the right quality, and have the right relationships, and those coins can be moved immediately for a profit. Buy them at the wrong price, wrong quality, and even if the market goes up, those coins may still be losers. Best to learn the skills in order to move into the first group. All the "dart throwing" (guessing as to the next hot series) in the world won't get a person very far without the skills. To develop the skills is going to take time, talent, and effort. If a person doesn't have the talent (the grading chops, the people skills), their potential is limited, but they will be able to limit their costs (and losses). >>
This is an outstanding post. Any collector with less than decades of experience would do well to read it closely.
Ray
However, please stay away from Jefferson nickels... I don't need the competition.
Steve
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
K
Buy them for your personal enjoyment, yes - invest, no. If you want to invest, buy stocks. The right ones are cheap
<< <i>I'm curious to hear what anybody has to hear on what sectors of the coin market offer the greatest profit potential. Yes, I'm looking to buy for profits in additon to collecting for the hobby.
I'll go wherever the money can be made. I am somewhat discouraged by recent trends - maybe it's just me getting older.
The ASE's and Gold Eagles/Buffalos are beautiful coins.
Are there any specialities that are severly under priced right now? Or any specialities that you can forecast the public wanting in the future? I personally am focusing upon the PCGS ASE's, Gold Eagles (1-oz and fractional), Morgans, and a few favorites (eg 1921-D dime). I am also selectively trying to pick up the PCGS PR70 New York as people will pay up for that coin.
I believe that the US debt levels may force gold to move up over time. I may not be alone in that opinion.
Thanks for any thoughts. >>
I wish coins traded put contracts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I wouldn't invest a dime in coins right now.
Buy them for your personal enjoyment, yes - invest, no. If you want to invest, buy stocks. The right ones are cheap >>
I agree with TDN.
If you absolutely have to buy coins for investment purposes, buy $3 gold. The series is deader than a doornail right now, and it is just a matter of time before the next Well-Managed Promotion begins.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>I would rather be the bouillon/coin dealer than the buyer/coin collector. >>
not everyone can be good looking, charming, successful, and wealthy.
the rest are collectors.
Buy the plastic not the coin.
I will listen to strangers on these boards.
Reference: Coin Links
<< <i>As a first step, I would strongly discourage you from seeking such advice from strangers in a chatroom. >>
Now lets see how this applies to your question. First, we need to look at what COUNTRY will most likely have the largest economic growth in the next 2-5 years...thats easy, its China. Once you are able to take your short sightedness off looking at just U.S. coins, we can continue. Ready? Ok, good! I have been following and studying Chinese gold panda bullion coins with great ferver for the past 18 months or so, although I have been buying/selling them for over a decade. What I have noticed within the past 5 years or so is an alarming, yet interesting trend. Among the 28 years, and 139 total different gold pandas thus issued, there are but just a handful of "key dates". Among them is the one thats recognized by basically any coin dealer in this country, and thats the 1982 of course. It routinely sells for more than 2x melt. Did you know however that although the 1982 1oz gold panda is the rarest of all 1oz pandas (13,500 minted), there is another date that has a mintage of just a few thousand more pieces that can be bought at local B&M's all over the country for about 6% over melt? Thats right....but I wont tell you the date, you can research that on your own. What I WILL tell you is that panda collectors are willing to pay at a minimum 150% of melt for that coin raw, and up to 2x melt for a graded 69 example! There is another very rare panda, with a mintage of just 4,168 pieces. Its a tough coin to find in "unsophisticated" (read: bullion dealer's) hands, but is well worth the squeeze. Can you imagine perhaps 200,000 future Chinese numismatic newly created millionaires all scrambling over just 4,168 coins? You can currently buy this particular coin for about $1,500 fair market value, or about $500 if you happen to see it laying in a dealer's case being sold as "just bullion". I know this reply is long winded and boring to most, but if considering numismatics from strictly an investment point, remember.....dont skate to where the puck is, but rather to where its going!
You could even shorten the time to 6 months and have a decent shot at making money, but to ask for a list of coins is what i find hard to answer. The best answer was there is no need for the competition. Also to pay full retail for coins today is asking to lose money IMO, especially to someone just starting out.
However I don't think coins are a lottery ticket, at least not some coins. If you pick wisely you have face value as a possible bottom or bullion value, lottery tickets have no value if they aren't winners.
<< <i>I wouldn't invest a dime in coins right now.
Buy them for your personal enjoyment, yes - invest, no. If you want to invest, buy stocks. The right ones are cheap >>
Very good advice.
Just wish I did not lose all my money in stocks so I had some to re-invest.
Collecting......Collect what you like and enjoy.
Investing in Classic's ?...............There are only a few people that can do this........Takes BIG BUCKS....Just look at the PCGS price guide for movement on Classic Coins.
Not unless you like 1916-D Dimes, or 1893-S Morgans or 1909-S VDB Cents...........That you can barely make out any detail whatsoever..
If you are focusing on investment, let's talk about stocks for example. You spend time researching what stocks to buy, you buy them and follow their prices and news and then at some point decide to sell. You make money. That money cost you a few things - one being the opportunity cost of the cash you had invested (couldn't do anything else with that money) the other is time. You need to not only come out profitable on the cash end but if you are spending 20 hours a week and get for it a few hundred bucks a year in investment earnings, that's not a good trade.
Coins would be the same way. If you buy $10,000 in coins as an investment then you have money tied up (opportunity cost) and you have to spend time researching, figuring out what to buy, figuring out when and for how much to sell, etc. You can buy stocks on-line no problem. Coins you can buy as well on-line but if you are buying for investment you probably would want to see "in hand" how coins look. Traveling around to find good stuff costs money as well you have to factor in. It can get pretty expensive to do it right.
Now flip it around and say that you're treating coins as a hobby. The time you spend on it isn't a cost, it becomes a benefit. You go to a coin show because you want to, not because it's how you're making money. So if you buy $10,000 in coins spending 20 hours a week for 3 months figuring out what to buy, and then when you sell it, you sell it for $9500, you may actually come out ahead. Why? Because in essence you spent $500 for something like 260 hours of fun.
Yes, I'm way oversimplifying. In the second example there is still the opportunity cost you have to factor in, and the world isn't black and white you can be part hobbyist part investor. My point is, this isn't simple. If you want simple, go buy some GLD or SLV via e-trade and check back with us in 6 months - if you're right that gold is going to go up then you'll make money. If you remember the mid to late 1990s and the stock chat boards like motley fool there were a zillion boards where people were posting stock tips, and everyone looked like a genius because everything was going up up up. You rarely (if ever) see posts like that here.
But to get back to the original question - my recommendation would be to buy the nicest examples you can afford of coins you like. Unless you're a total weirdo, someone else out there likes things you like. If the examples are truly nice, there will be a market for them. If you want to have alot of coins (quantity) because that's what you enjoy then just knock the grade down but still buy nicest you can find within that grade. If you don't need to have alot of coins then focus more on MS coins and buy things you think are truly good looking. The other benefit here? If you end up losing money on the "investment" you still have coins you think are really nice
-Fred
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
Sprinkle it with a variety of coins you might think would work out.
Add a few moderns, keys in mid-grade thru MS grades, low mintages, varieties, etc.
Then, after a few months, take a look at the number of people who want
each coin and you should get an idea of what will increase in value.
Might work out. Might not.
JT
I collect all 20th century series except gold including those series that ended there.
<< <i>Maybe you could set up your "My Collection" at Heritage, real or concocted.
Sprinkle it with a variety of coins you might think would work out.
Add a few moderns, keys in mid-grade thru MS grades, low mintages, varieties, etc.
Then, after a few months, take a look at the number of people who want
each coin and you should get an idea of what will increase in value.
Might work out. Might not.
JT >>
you know, i slapped my half eagles into that heritage thing. about
30ish of them.
the pattern of what ones were on other people's want lists made
no sense to me at all. the stuff i thought was never going to go up
in price, generic as all get out, was the highest ranking.
my rare stuff... pfft. a few wanted it based on that system they have.
There are quite a few recent U.S. platinum eagles with *much* less than 4,168 mintage and selling for *much* less than $1,500.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>>>Can you imagine perhaps 200,000 future Chinese numismatic newly created millionaires all scrambling over just 4,168 coins? You can currently buy this particular coin for about $1,500 fair market value, or about $500 if you happen to see it laying in a dealer's case being sold as "just bullion".<<
There are quite a few recent U.S. platinum eagles with *much* less than 4,168 mintage and selling for *much* less than $1,500. >>
Because there is *much* less of a collector base worldwide on U.S. plat eagles than there are gold panda collectors.
True at the moment, but part of the equation for future appreciation is potential growth of the collector base. IMO, it would take a *lot* fewer collectors to double the collector base for modern platinum eagles than to double the number of gold panda collectors. An MS70 2006-W unc. platinum eagle, mintage 2676, recently sold on eBay for less than $1,000 including shipping. Not very many additional platinum collectors would be needed to drive that price *much* higher!
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Maybe I am sceptical, but I see to many counterfeit coins-in-general coming out of China. Just my paranoid feelings on gold pandas.
Reference: Coin Links
<< <i>
<< <i>Yes ask a pro. Consult the owner of your local B&M. He will be glad to sell you his finest coins. >>
Obviously an even worse idea.
In fact, asking anyone to tell you where to invest is foolish, whether we are talking about numismatics, or real estate or most anything else.
What I would suggest is that you identify an area of interest to you and then read and study and learn as much as you possibly can about it so that you can draw your own conclusions. >>
There are a bunch of stockbrokers burning you in effigy right now
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>How secure would one feel buying uncertified 1-oz. Gold Pandas? Even if Chairman Mao handed me a Panda, I can't say with 100% certainty that the coin was .9999 gold.
Maybe I am sceptical, but I see to many counterfeit coins-in-general coming out of China. Just my paranoid feelings on gold pandas.
Do you have any idea how difficult it would be to produce a "fake gold" coin? I wont get into the particulars of specific gravity here, but let me just tell you that per volume, gold is almost twice as heavy as lead. In fact, there are only a couple of metals that approach/exceed gold's density. Platinum (they wouldnt gold plate platinum), and tungsten (which although is as heavy as gold has an unreal melting point and is almost impossible to mint into coinage). So if you know the diameter and thickness of what a 1oz gold panda is supposed to be, and a $15 scale to weigh it, its virtually impossible to get duped.
<< <i>>>Because there is *much* less of a collector base worldwide on U.S. plat eagles than there are gold panda collectors.<<
True at the moment, but part of the equation for future appreciation is potential growth of the collector base. IMO, it would take a *lot* fewer collectors to double the collector base for modern platinum eagles than to double the number of gold panda collectors. An MS70 2006-W unc. platinum eagle, mintage 2676, recently sold on eBay for less than $1,000 including shipping. Not very many additional platinum collectors would be needed to drive that price *much* higher!
My opinion only. >>
Your opinion is very much valid. However, will there be more "new money" coming into coin collecting from the U.S. or from China in the near future? My wager is on China. And although im sure there are worldwide collectors of U.S. plat coins, I'd have to guess (and its just that, a guess) that the vast majority are right here in this country. The panda series is more immune to U.S. financial positions/problems because the bulk of the collectors are evenly spread out over the globe, with a new, fast rising segment coming from the coin's homeland.