Stephen Strasburg. Start buying now or wait?
fur72
Posts: 2,348 ✭✭
Is it worth buying Stephen Strasburg cards now? Or should I wait until his offical rookie card comes out? His USA cards are commanding a premium. Will these prices go up after he makes his MLB debut or do we think they will flatten out? This kid sounds like the real thing. His auto jersey cards are going for over $2000 and regular UD USA card issue going in the $40 range. Any advice?
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Comments
Mike
Pitchers sell for hype and once they make the Show, they drop like a rock. Name one prospect that sells for anything close to prices that he did before he made it AFTER he's been in the league for more than 3 years.
My Sandberg topps basic set
My Sandberg Topps Master set
There Are Many Failures Along The Way
Erik at Future Redbirds (you thought it was gone? Ha, that's so last week) uses Victor Wang's research on the percentage of prospects that bust to put the talented Cardinal's farm system into perspective:
* 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust.
* 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
* 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
* 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
* 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust.
* 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
* 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
* 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust.
* 59% of "B grade" hitting prospects bust.
* 52% of "B grade pitching prospects bust.
* 83% of "C grade" hitting prospects bust.
* Around 75% of all "C grade" pitching prospects bust.
Here's a telling quote about pitching prospects:
"The Cardinals have 32 grade C players, which is tremendous depth when you think about it, but only 6 of them are likely to make it, and the odds are extremely low that any of them develop into an everyday player. We’re talking about 6 middle relievers, backup catchers, 4th/5th outfielders or utility infielders."
David Price is a top ten pitching prospect. Many Rays' fans are anointing him an All-Star already. But he still has a 1/3 chance of being a total nothing in the majors, maybe slightly lower because he's ready for the majors and is ranked towards the top of the top ten.
If prospects always lived up to expectations, the league would feature 30 All-Star teams. They bust and disappoint far more often than we tend to realize.
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
Here is a retrospective look at the Top 50 Pitching Prospects list from 2004.
1) Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade A: One of the best young pitchers in the game.
2) Ryan Wagner, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade A: Fumbling around due to command problems.
3) Edwin Jackson, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A: Progress has been slow but has had flashes of success.
4) Joe Blanton, RHP, Oakland Athletics, Grade A-: Developed into a solid inning-eater.
5) Scott Kazmir, LHP, New York Mets, Grade A-: Excellent when healthy.
6) Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-: Excellent.
7) Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
8) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
9) Gavin Floyd, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-: Looked like a bust until 2008. Can he sustain this?
10) Kris Honel, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade A-: Ruined by injuries.
11) Greg Miller, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A-: Injuries and control problems.
12) Jimmy Gobble, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Failed as a starter, has had some success in bullpen.
13) Ervin Santana, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Very very good pitcher.
14) Joel Hanrahan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+: Looked like a bust for awhile, but had a good year in 2008.
15) Merkin Valdez, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+: Injuries.
16) Blake Hawksworth, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B+: Injuries.
17) Jesse Crain, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Solid middle reliever.
18) John Maine, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Effective when healthy.
19) Angel Guzman, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Injuries.
20) Chadd Blasko, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Injuries.
21) Macay McBride, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: Mediocre reliever, injuries.
22) Taylor Buchholz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+: A nice solid bullpen arm.
23) Manny Parra, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+: Still putting it together, decent in 2008.
24) David Bush, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: A decent control artist starter.
25) Chad Gaudin, RHP, Tampa Bay, Grade B+: Flashes of success, not a bad pitcher.
26) Brian Bruney, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+: Average bullpen arm.
27) Bobby Jenks, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Successful closer.
28) Andy Sisco, LHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Good year in 2005, fell apart in ’06, command and health issues.
29) Francisco Cruceta, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: Hanging around Triple-A, as received just 26 major league innings.
30) Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Looks good so far, can arm hold up?
31) Joel Zumaya, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B+: Has been successful when healthy.
32) Dan Meyer, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: Injuries.
33) Denny Bautista, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Control problems, never harnessed stuff.
34) Jason Young, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Injuries.
35) Sean Burnett, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Injuries.
36) Chin-hui Tsao, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Injuries.
37) Travis Blackley, LHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Hanging around Triple-A. Finesse pitcher bust.
38) Jeff Francis, LHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Successful when healthy.
39) Clint Nageotte, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Injuries and control problems.
40) Josh Banks, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Quadruple-A type, good control but lack of stuff holds him back.
41) Jon VanBenschoten, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Injuries.
42) Boof Bonser, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Good rookie year in 2006, has struggled since.
43) Ricky Nolasco, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Very impressive 2008 season.
44) Ian Oquendo, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Now Ian Snell. Has had some success but not consistent.
45) Chad Cordero, RHP, Montreal Expos, Grade B: Pitched great 2004-2007, then hurt in ’08.
46) Kevin Correia, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B: Good seasons in ’06 and ’07, useful utility pitcher.
47) Ryan Madson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B: A very good relief arm.
48) Dustin Nippert, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Injuries have rendered him a below average pitcher.
49) Dustin Moseley, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B: Below average pitcher. 50) Grant Balfour, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B: Solid bullpen arm when healthy.
I’m very happy with this list. Most of the failures were due to injuries.
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
published January 1, 2005
by David Luciani
Please do check back to part one of the series for some important notes about how these lists come together and just as, if not more importantly, what we mean when we define a prospect for purposes of this series, especially in terms of how much they need to have played in the minors in 2004 to be considered. Teams listed are the organization which the player was in at the conclusion of the 2004 season. Also crucial to understand is why a certain player that you may consider to be a top prospect might not make the list or be as high as you expected and part one of the series gave you some links to essays with my own detailed responses to such questions or concerns. And so, we conclude with this four part series by giving you the top 100 NL pitching prospects:
TOP 100 NL PITCHING PROSPECTS
1. JOSE CAPELLAN, ATLANTA: He's now moved to Milwaukee and where, when I was talking about the best hitting prospects, I pointed out that this was the first time a top prospect changed teams since the end of the season, it actually happened twice this year as the man I'll call the best NL pitching prospect was traded in the Danny Kolb deal. He's ready now, has a top fastball, one of the best around in the majors or minors, and that he struggled in his brief tryout with Atlanta last year shouldn't put you off. I only hope he ends up as a starter. I remember years ago when I had Billy Wagner as the top NL pitching prospect, I said the same thing and while Wagner has had a good career as a closer, I wouldn't have put him at #1 if I had known that's the role he would end up in rather than as a starter. Expect Capellan to be a valuable contributor no later than 2006 and he could easily end up in the rotation right out of spring training this year if all goes well. Certainly the Brewers are anxious to show their fans that they got something of immediate value for Danny Kolb.
2. ZACH DUKE, PITTSBURGH: A lefty who doesn't throw particularly hard, though he does peak in the low nineties at times, he has excellent poise, good control and is making minor league hitters look like little leaguers. Not as ready as Capellan, Duke will make it to at least Triple-A by the end of this season and we should see his debut in the majors within two years. I actually think he's going to eventually have pretty good strikeout stuff when he's established, though not anything like one per inning and he's closer than you might expect in terms of ability. I believe that whether he appears in 2005 (and it's unlikely he will before September at the earliest), he's not going to have too much of an adjustment period after he arrives. Expect him to eventually be an ace starter.
3. JEFF FRANCIS, COLORADO: Without a doubt, he had one of the best minor league seasons around in 2004 and most working against him is that if he ends up pitching half of his career (or at least the first part of it) in Colorado, he's going to be incapable of keeping his ERA below the mid 3's at the very best and if he did that, it would mean that he was having a Cy Young type season that was ruined by his home park. He projects as an eventual big-time strikeout guy who will give up the occasional home run and he will quickly become the Rockies' ace.
4. YUSMEIRO PETIT, NEW YORK METS: He's already got two big league ready pitches, even though his fastball isn't that hard, and he tried to add a slider within the past couple of years, which isn't close to being ready. Don't let his minor league strikeout numbers fool you in that he's not a hard thrower but he's hard to pick up and he's one of those rare pitchers who doesn't even peak in the mid nineties but who I believe will still eventually be a big league strikeout guy because of the movement and deception of his pitches. He's not ready yet and I expect his debut won't come until late 2006 or early 2007. In 2004, at Single-A Capital City, Petit went 9-2 with a 2.39 ERA and 122 strikeouts in just 83 inning and at Single-A St. Lucie, he was even better, going 2-3 with a 1.22 ERA in 44.1 innings. He didn't look close to ready in a two game stint with Double-A Binghamton, though.
5. BEN HENDRICKSON, MILWAUKEE: He made it to the majors last year and got knocked around but I'm expecting sharp improvement this year, though I expect he'll spend more than half the time working out of the bullpen. In fact, his future rests on whether he ends up in relief or starting. Like Petit, he doesn't throw as hard as some other so-called top prospects and I really see two routes for him. If he ends up as a reliever, I suspect he'll see good results in 2005 but only medium level development over the long-term, thus settling into perhaps a lower place than what a top five prospect would normally get. If the Brewers use him exclusively as a starter in 2005, I expect him to perform at subpar levels for 2005 and into the early part of 2006 but at the benefit of his long-term career, which would then be quite good. While he is ready for the majors now, I project that the stuff that will eventually make him an ace won't be developed until at least mid to late 2006.
6. FRANQUELIS OSORIA, LOS ANGELES: Certainly unknown compared to these others, Osoria is a long way from even making a debut, likely not until late 2006 or 2007. He has a strong sinking fastball and it's getting stronger as he gets older, already peaking in the mid nineties now. The highest ranked reliever here, and that's what he projects to be for his career, Osoria won't allow many home runs and I expect him to be one of those rare pitchers who ends up as a closer in the majors without being a big-time strikeout guy. As hard as he throws, he strikes me as an eventual 80 innings, 50 strikeout guy but I project him as one day being one of the most effective relievers in the majors, when he hits his peak. I know I have rated him higher than most and his short-term upside is limited as he's a long way from being a big time contributor, at least three or four years at the soonest. Though he won't appear in 2005, he was added to the Dodgers' 40-man roster this off-season.
7. BRAD BAKER, SAN DIEGO: Once a top prospect when he was with Boston, he was sent to San Diego in the Alan Embree trade back in 2002 and he's recovered nicely from a disastrous 2003 campaign that saw him post a terrible 5.68 ERA at Double-A Mobile. His change-up is one of the best in the minors and while he's not as hard a thrower as some closers, I expect he'll one day be a quite effective one and despite the limited velocity, he's not fully developed and I do think he'll eventually be a strikeout per inning guy in the majors. When I was comparing Osoria and Baker, I tried to decide who would have the better career and ultimately went with Osoria but I believe that Baker will have the best individual season between the two but won't have the same longevity to his career. Despite that, I expect Baker's graduation to be coming this season and for him to be an effective set-up man by the end of 2006 and a closer by 2007 or 2008.
8. LANCE CORMIER, ARIZONA: Cormier rarely gets the attention he deserves because he doesn't have the kind of stuff that impresses scouts but consider that with the exception of a forgettable 17 game / 5 start stint with the big league club last year, he has rarely allowed a home run in the minors (just 3 in 113.1 minor league innings in 2004, and just 4 in 69 innings in 2003) and his control is much better than the statistics reveal. I'm projecting him to have a mediocre big league portion to his 2005 season (currently all projected in relief with a 4.83 ERA over 39 games) and while I'm expecting him to pitch exclusively in relief in 2005, his appearance on this list is based on a belief that he eventually ends up as starting pitcher. If that doesn't happen, he doesn't belong among the top ten as he has ace starter stuff but not closer stuff for a bullpen - while Cormier isn't in his league, try to picture Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine being used to close games. I feel that Arizona rushed him and I'm hoping that they haven't ruined him because some pitchers never recover from getting knocked around the way Cormier did last year. I project him to eventually be a top pitcher but only if he ends up as a starter.
9. DALE THAYER, SAN DIEGO: He and Osoria are no doubt the least known in the top nine. Thayer had a nightmare to start 2004, allowing seven runs in his first two innings but after that, he pitched 53.1 innings with a microscopic 0.68 ERA before getting promoted to Double-A Mobile. He throws around 90 MPH and his slider has come along quickly. His stuff remains underestimated and he's one of only two in the top ten who makes it for statistical reasons as his long-term projection is coming out quite high, higher than I would have noticed normally if I didn't do long-term analysis on the numbers. Look for him to end up as either a closer or a very good set-up man with a long career. As I say, he's making this list for statistical reasons and is one of the only ones here who doesn't have "scout loved" stuff so if you're into the so-called tools over numbers, he's one to skip.
10. ANTHONY RAWSON, ST. LOUIS: Another lefty, Rawson has closed in the minors and projects as the same when he reaches the majors. Of some concern is that his strikeout numbers haven't been there yet and he's the other pitcher I mentioned (in the Dale Thayer note above) who's making this list mostly because of his statistics and not his so-called tools. He allowed just 1 home run in 78 minor league innings last year and if I believe the threshold analysis of my numbers, it's saying he's going to end up as a quite reliable, long-term closer in the big leagues, better than anyone expects but without huge strikeout numbers.
The best of the rest...
11. YORMAN BAZARDO, FLORIDA
12. DAN MEYER, ATLANTA
13. JAKE STEVENS, ATLANTA
14. CLAY RAPADA, CHICAGO CUBS
15. BEAR BAY, CHICAGO CUBS
16. GLENN WOOLARD, MILWAUKEE
17. MARCOS CARVAJAL, LOS ANGELES
18. BILLY PETRICK, CHICAGO CUBS
19. JAMAAL HAMILTON, LOS ANGELES
20. CHUCK JAMES, ATLANTA
21. RICHIE GARDNER, CINCINNATI
22. JUSTIN GERMANO, SAN DIEGO
23. TODD COFFEY, CINCINNATI
24. ROSS WOLF, FLORIDA
25. PAT MISCH, SAN FRANCISCO
26. GAVIN FLOYD, PHILADELPHIA
27. GREG RAMIREZ, NEW YORK METS
28. CHRIS DE MARIA, PITTSBURGH
29. SEAN MARSHALL, CHICAGO CUBS
30. DAVID AARDSMA, SAN FRANCISCO
31. BLAINE BOYER, ATLANTA
32. ROBERT RANSOM, CHICAGO CUBS
33. JORDAN PALS, ST. LOUIS
34. KEVIN DEATON, NEW YORK METS
35. ANTHONY PEARSON, WASHINGTON
36. JUAN MATEO, CHICAGO CUBS
37. SERGIO MITRE, CHICAGO CUBS
38. MATT ALBERS, HOUSTON
39. CLINT EVERTS, WASHINGTON
40. JUSTIN GARZE, ST. LOUIS
41. DEREK THOMPSON, LOS ANGELES
42. PACO REYES, PHILADELPHIA
43. SHAWN HILL, WASHINGTON
44. MONTE MANSFIELD, HOUSTON
45. DUSTIN NIPPERT, ARIZONA
46. DANA EVELAND, MILWAUKEE
47. DANNY HAREN, ST. LOUIS: Traded to Oakland in the Mark Mulder deal.
48. GLENN TUCKER, ATLANTA
49. JONATHAN BROXTON, LOS ANGELES
50. CORY SCHULTZ, PHILADELPHIA
51. RANDY MESSENGER, FLORIDA
52. FERNANDO NIEVE, HOUSTON
53. JOSH SHARPLESS, PITTSBURGH
54. IAN SNELL, PITTSBURGH
55. MIKE ESPOSITO, COLORADO
56. MATT WRIGHT, ATLANTA
57. MIKE HINCKLEY, WASHINGTON
58. ANTHONY REYES, ST. LOUIS
59. JASON ALCALA, PITTSBURGH
60. WILLIAM JUAREZ, ARIZONA
61. TIM STAUFFER, SAN DIEGO
62. RENYEL PINTO, CHICAGO CUBS
63. RYAN KETCHNER, LOS ANGELES
64. CHAD BAILEY, LOS ANGELES
65. MATT CAIN, SAN FRANCISCO
66. LOGAN KENSING, FLORIDA
67. RICHARD BARTLETT, LOS ANGELES
68. DARRELL RASNER, WASHINGTON
69. RICH SCALAMANDRE, ST. LOUIS
70. ALVIS OJEDA, LOS ANGELES
71. BRIAN BANNISTER, NEW YORK METS
72. AARON WILLIAMS, HOUSTON
73. BILLY SADLER, SAN FRANCISCO
74. BOBBY BRADLEY, PITTSBURGH
75. CHAD BILLINGSLEY, LOS ANGELES
76. BRAD THOMPSON, ST. LOUIS
77. MARCUS DAVILA, PITTSBURGH
78. DIRK HAYHURST, SAN DIEGO
79. MANNY PARRA, MILWAUKEE
80. KYLE DAVIES, ATLANTA
81. NEAL MUSSER, NEW YORK METS
82. CHRIS NARVESON, COLORADO
83. NOAH LOWRY, SAN FRANCISCO
84. DUSTIN MOSELEY, CINCINNATI
85. LEONEL ROSALES, SAN DIEGO
86. BOBBY BROWNLIE, CHICAGO CUBS
87. JON CONNOLLY, CHICAGO CUBS
88. BRIAN BURRES, SAN FRANCISCO
89. CHRIS YOUNG, COLORADO
90. JEREMY ACCARDO, SAN FRANCISCO
91. JON SEARLES, WASHINGTON
92. BOB KEPPEL, NEW YORK METS
93. EDWIN JACKSON, LOS ANGELES
94. MICHAEL O'CONNOR, WASHINGTON
95. KEVIN CORREIA, SAN FRANCISCO
96. ALEC ZUMWALT, ATLANTA
97. RICH RUNDLES, WASHINGTON
98. SEAN WHITE, ATLANTA
99. JASON WADDELL, SAN FRANCISCO
100. ROBERTO BATISTA, ST. LOUIS
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
The time to buy his cards was 1 month ago, before the articles started coming out.
WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
I disagree about Starsburg or any prospects best time to buy is when they have their inevitable off year. Most likely it will be within their 1st 3 years in the MLs.
<< <i>1%, 99% due to him being a Yankee.
I disagree about Starsburg or any prospects best time to buy is when they have their inevitable off year. Most likely it will be within their 1st 3 years in the MLs. >>
Pitchers are a little more difficult and it is rare that they see a significant second spike.
<< <i>The high prices are all from hype. They'll come down, regardless of how well he does.
The time to buy his cards was 1 month ago, before the articles started coming out. >>
I think this is the best statement.
My Sandberg topps basic set
My Sandberg Topps Master set