PMs down and Stocks are up!
Bear
Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
Stock market likes news on bank relief market has another good day.
There once was a place called
Camelot
Camelot
0
Comments
That's all I have to say about that.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The market-to-market changes will have no effect and JPM and C said as much today.
I have stated that traders will be able to make a fortune in the markets in coming years. This is a nice start.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Joel 3:10
“The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism. But under the name of ‘liberalism’ they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program, until one day America will be a Socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.” -Socialist Party presidential candidate Norman Thomas
“We Are All Socialists Now" - Feb 16, 2009 cover of Newsweek Magazine
All commodities basically up today.......uhh, except gold and silver. Got to love how that happens, even while the dollar was taking a big 2.5% hit. Nice moves by the PPT. Note that some terrible companies that had no reason to rally were pushed up today by hot hedge fund air. How about airlines up 8%.....while oil went up to raise their costs! REITs, retailers, and transports were up strong today. Did those businesses all of a sudden become hugely profitable again? A number of the bank stocks did not participate all that much today and banks were left behind. Health care and drugs were down and those are the things people still really need. Odd day to say the least.
The actual technicals today favored a big rise in the PM's. One can only think that they were pushed down in anticipation of the G20 statements. The slow takedown overseas this morning followed by the 9-10 am NY slamdown was just what the PPT ordered up. It seems like the big winners in this extended stock market rally have been commodities (oil, copper, aluminum), banks, and tech stocks.
roadrunner
Shopping for a queen is tough........
Camelot
<< <i>The worst is over... >>
heh...
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
the wind out of the sails of the rebound pretty quick.
i was at a toyota car dealership last week getting my car inspection.
they are basically begging people to buy and if not begging, standing
around doing nothing. taint a good sign.
also without homes bottoming out completely i cannot imagine things
are over yet. when they stop going down i will start to think things
have improved.
<< <i>The worst is over roadrunner. I'd like to see you gradually spend more time outside your bomb shelter getting some fresh air. If you need something to do start beating those swords back into plowshares. >>
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
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True.
Just a start, though.
Trading around core positions has worked for me, for many years.
Price directions make little difference; all you need is momentum.
Medium to high volatility is nice, but even gentle swings pay out.
<< <i> you could have one of those new ipods with Big O speeches on it ; it's good to be queen. >>
Might come in handy if she ever has trouble falling asleep.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>"... I have stated that traders will be able to make a fortune in the markets in coming years. This is a nice start..."
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True.
Just a start, though.
Trading around core positions has worked for me, for many years.
Price directions make little difference; all you need is momentum.
Medium to high volatility is nice, but even gentle swings pay out. >>
With a VIX in the 40's and 2 and 3x ETFs, WOOWSERS. I would only say that NOTHING is a core position. Only knowledge should be held longterm.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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I like to have small core positions in shares I have confidence in.
This also allows/forces me to accumulate "knowledge" about
company fundamentals and trading trends.
I am not opposed to "over trading," but there is nothing wrong
with holding a few of the "products" you trade in.
Works for me. Battered stocks in my IRA go up and my new PM purchases cost less.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
<< <i>Just to be clear, a lot of us posted before the OP was completely changed. I wouldn't have posted
I'll delete my first post then, I don't know what Bear originally wrote and didn't realize you guys were responding to it and not his edited message.
events. Thus I changed the title so no one would be
tempted to say something intemperate causing anyone
to be poofed.
Camelot
<< <i>I never intended to upset folks I was merely stating
events. Thus I changed the title so no one would be
tempted to say something intemperate causing anyone
to be poofed.
I think what you just saw was the "best" and it is unsustainable at these rates. 25% market rallys are not the norm. I see very few analysts (including the shills on TV who are typically bullish as a condition of their employment) thinking that a final stock market bottom is now in. A typical bottoming pattern tends to make a major move down followed by a sequenced pair of bounce backs and falls (ie retests). At best, we're probably still early in the first bounce back with a couple of retests still to come. What you should have said was that the "worst" is still probably yet to come. During the 1930-1932 SM crash, there must have been a half dozen recoveries or sideways moves as the market moved inexorably lower. At each step there was a major "luminary" (politician or stock market proponent) predicting the end of the decline and clear skies ahead. After nearly 3 years of entirely wrong predictions (much like Bernanke, Paulson over the past 2 years), the market finally hit the real bottom.
I think the banks will lead the market back down next week. PM's should recover.
roadrunner
FWIW, this rally is just a counter to the beatdown the market took. The earnings of business enterprise in this country are for the most part----WAY OFF. Smart people will know when to jump off this ride. I got out of the roller coaster as much as possible a long time ago.
I do not ascribe to technical analysis, maybe because I'm a dumb lad. All I know is when my phone is ringing, I'm singing. My phone is not ringing now with orders like it should.
Commercial property (big)problems, pension fund underfunding, intrusive government, increasing compliance and taxation issues, relaxed demand from customers and probably a 10 year cyclical weakness in consumer demographics along with consumer need to save due to the overspending of the last few years...................I see no "REBOUND" anytime soon.
<< <i> PM's should recover. >>
We shall see.
The American people are quick to tire of a lot. They have a short attention span, be it for Iraq, the economy, etc. It becomes "old news" and those that can return to their ways. Smart? Certainly not, but if people as a whole in this country were smarter, a lot of things that have happened in the last 20 years (and longer) never would have come to be.
PM's take another tumble starting overseas as I type as money moves out of pm's to stocks. I expect this to be a continuing trend with whimper rallies in pm's as both markets continue to swing. The TREND I expect to continue for some time until the "return to way things were" in house prices, etc., prove to be trying to return to failed thinking and the next set of blown economics takes hold.