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Is Palladium a good buy right now?
secondrepublic
Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭
Opinions, please. Am considering buying some on Monday.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
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Apmex is selling 10 ouncers for $39.95/ounce over spot... which seems sort of reasonable until you realize that even that is about 20% over spot.
Unfortunately I don't see many options for doing better than that. The premiums on the Palladium coins (the few out there) are even bigger.
<< <i>The premiums on the 1 ouncers are definitely ugly.
Apmex is selling 10 ouncers for $39.95/ounce over spot... which seems sort of reasonable until you realize that even that is about 20% over spot.
Unfortunately I don't see many options for doing better than that. The premiums on the Palladium coins (the few out there) are even bigger. >>
Thats why it may be best to just sit on the sidelines for awhile till premiums cool down. I cannot see any big spikes in Pd in the near future anyway since its an industrial metal that is very dependent on the auto industry.
because there was no public demand for it. The problem was in the selling. Most dealers would not
even make an offer ..... and the ones that did would lowball to the point of why bother.
I must admit ..... I do like APMEX / SC's 1000 gr. Pd bars. Talk about sharp!!
I know you are talking 10 oz. bar[s] .... What I don't know is their buy back price.
You might want to find this out BEFORE your purchase.
[ and let us know what they say, please!!]
As far as good / bad investment ...... I really have no clue.
********************
Silver is the mortar that binds the bricks of loyalty.
and,
I'm sticking to the big three. Ag, Au, Pt.
Yep, I like the idea of having some pd, but at these premiums, and with a market of somewhat questionable size & liquidity, buying pd now doesn't make as much sense as buying the big 3.
I knew it would happen.
Could be. But it could also be true that the high premium reflects peoples' convictions to buy it (in spite of the high premiums) because of its potential.
I knew it would happen.
"Dead paper does NOT spit cash."
Chapter II
"Always figure out the selling part before the buying part."
I dont see this as any different than gold/silver if you think it will go up.
<< <i>Anything is a "good buy" at the right price. >>
I have to say that kinda bugs me. The question was if the item was a good investment and this infers that it doesnt matter as long as you can find a sucker. I have listed a lot of items and have purchased a lot too at market prices. Of course everyone wants a good deal but I get tired of people asking how much and then not replying when they find Im not dumb enough to sell an ounce of gold for spot-50.
Prices on PMs have a small range in the buy/sell. Anyone smart enough to own them is usually smart enough to know the easy to find market rates. If your not prepared to pay market (not retail) for PMs then you are not "investing" you are "duck hunting".
Pd seems to have a lot more volatility than the other PMs. It sold for over $1,000 back in 2000 due to a supply shortage (back when gold was $250). Then it collapsed, then it went back up to $550, $600, then it fell to over $200. The volatility of it makes it an appealing (though more speculative) investment play.
Maybe better then to play the pool accounts at KITCO.
Conversely, if you arent paying attention to premiums, you are burying yourself, not investing.
I'd still rather buy it today with the lower price and the higher premium.
Of course, I'd really rather buy it for $210 with a $30 premium.
<< <i>Palladium is used in the production of catalytic converters. I don't know the percentages or demand by the auto industry, however, I assume it's healthy. I would stay away from palladium until the auto industry shows more signs hope. >>
Good points. But by the time auto industry starts to bounce back, I think the price will already reflect that. Better to buy when things still look gloomy, no?
<< <i>
<< <i>Palladium is used in the production of catalytic converters. I don't know the percentages or demand by the auto industry, however, I assume it's healthy. I would stay away from palladium until the auto industry shows more signs hope. >>
Good points. But by the time auto industry starts to bounce back, I think the price will already reflect that. Better to buy when things still look gloomy, no? >>
Very good point. Timing is essential!!
<< <i>Folks, buy low sell high, the premiums are high at this time due to high demand! Also, Palladium can be used in Jewelry, I would rather have a palladium ring than a gold or platium ring, why? Because palladium ring is 5 times cheaper, yet, it has similar properties just like a platium ring and it is not old looking like gold ring! >>
Palladium is about half the density of platinum, so it would "feel" very light for its size unlike a platinum ring.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
<< <i>So how did the palladium sale go, or did it? What's the current market price (premium) of 1 oz. bars?
I bought a Credit Sussie 1 oz palladium bar at $30 over spot at Santa Clara Coin, Stamp and Collectibles Expo. Spot at the time was $225, so I paid $255. I am very happy with my purchase! I will use it for my jewelry class. I also sold a few Canadian Palladium coins on Ebay at around $310 - $360. I hear the mint will be minting the ultra high relief eagle coins in palladium next year. I expect palladium price will go up, heck, it is already boucing back! I also hear about an old but newly proven technology called "Cold Fusion" or something like that (correct me if I'm wrong) that uses palladium extensively, plus our government is printing more paper to pay off debt, oh boy, palladium is a good investment, my advice to you is to jump on it
I did just pick up 2 ounces from my local dealer at around $400/oz.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
ETFs have advantages and disadvantages vs. owning physical metal. One of the advantages is not having to pay a huge premium over the spot price.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Palladium and platinum ETFs may be available in the U.S. soon, supposedly backed by physical bullion.
ETFs have advantages and disadvantages vs. owning physical metal. One of the advantages is not having to pay a huge premium over the spot price. >>
Both types are already available in Europe. Will be good to have them here as well. They could play a strong role in raising demand for the metals.
If you believe in the future of nuclear fusion as a power source for the world, then Palladium is a great investment.
I read that scientists found evidence of neutrons from a "cold fusion" experiment, but have not (so far) built any energy devices using the process. Even if they do, the effect on the palladium price will depend on how much palladium is actually needed, and whether any less expensive substitutes are available.
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<< <i>I don't buy palladium based on the reports of some futuristic science applications... I just don't understand (1) whether it's true, (2) how much it would increase the demand for palladium, or (3) what the time frame is (are we talking 50 years?) >>
"Cold Fusion" isn't futuristic, it is an old technology that needs funding. That says it is real! No individual can precisely predict the time for the technology to become mature, nor the demand for the metals that associate with this technology. The reason is very simple: we do not know whether this technology is more economical than current technologies.
But this much we know: any metals that can benefit humans will be accumulated and distributed among humans. As a result, metals that can be used for "futuristic" applications have much more promissing future. Gold and silver are old metals, but platium, palladium and rhodium are new metals (yes, they were discovered in the 1800's) but applications that require these new metals are still being discovered at the same pace as humans continue to improving their technologies and their knowledge. At present, palladium can substitute gold in almost any applications, while gold can not substitute palladium for applications that require palladium. Given the current market price for palladium and gold, palladium can economically replace gold for all future applications.
One question will be posted on one's mind: When is that going to happen? You know, palladium replaces gold?
One answer will be posted here to answer one's question: I have no idea! But given that manufacturers are out-sourcing American jobs to find cheaper labor overseas, it just a matter of time when manufacturers will "out-sourcing" gold for cheaper palladium, unless it is too late to switch because their prices are almost identical!
I have read a lot of the recent articles about cold fusion and it sounds really promising. If they can scale it up and mature the technology, it WILL be the future source of energy for the world. Converting mass into engergy. No pollution, no nuclear waste. It is the ultimate power source.
Given the current market price for palladium and gold, why isn't this happening already?
I can see palladium substituting for gold for many technological applications, but not for monetary applications.
(Except maybe the UHR double eagle.)
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<< <i>>>Given the current market price for palladium and gold, palladium can economically replace gold for all future applications.<<
Given the current market price for palladium and gold, why isn't this happening already?
I can see palladium substituting for gold for many technological applications, but not for monetary applications.
(Except maybe the UHR double eagle.)
Good question! I am not an expert in the field, however, there are two reasons I can think of right now:
1. Manufacturers are currently using machines and tools that traditionally designed to work with gold composites. Given the economic turmoil, It is not economical or too expensive to upgrade or replace current machines & tools to palladium base.
2. Palladium is only available in a few countries, these countries (Russia is one of them) do not guarantee an even flow of supply to the open market. If one country decides to stop exporting palladium, prices will undoubtedly fluntuated. If this happens, investors (like me and you) will be happy, but manufacturers will be extremely unhappy because they have to pay higher prices for raw materials (palladium), and if manufacturers can not obtain enough raw materials to continue production, they are as good as dead!
Item # 150339009877 at Ebay, a Credit Suisse 1oz palladium bar, $279 - 10% Live cash back = $250 which is about $10-$15 over spot. These are $300 at APMEX. You don't find Palladium at premiums like that any more.
And I got *instant* cash back on this one.