Time to take profits?

CoinHusker

That's what Patrick Heller suggests at the end of his article on Numismaster.com.

<< <i>At the American Numismatic Association's National Money Show in Portland, Ore., this past weekend, demand for U.S. gold $10s and $20s was still solid. With some such collector coins now trading at all-time high prices, however, some dealers are advising their customers to consider selling or swapping for gold bullion. As a consequence, I think most of the surge in prices has already occurred. It might be a good time to take a profit. >>



Any thoughts?

Here's a link to the whole article. Article

gecko109

Makes sense to me with the way the global economy seems to be headed. In a true SHTF scenario, would you rather have a 1oz AGE AND 2 1/4oz AGEs, or a 1924 Saint in 63?

ProofCollection

<< <i>Makes sense to me with the way the global economy seems to be headed. In a true SHTF scenario, would you rather have a 1oz AGE AND 2 1/4oz AGEs, or a 1924 Saint in 63? >>



Depends on if the government decides to try to confiscate gold.

SilverEagles92

I agree 100%.

I got out a little while ago. I made 100% profit on a Saint I had. Felt good.

roadrunner

While it makes sense to me, anyone considering it should have done it 2-3 weeks ago. In any case, the prices of $20 Libs in 63-65 held steady or went higher. So an imminent drop hasn't yet occurred. Saint prices have dropped maybe 5% but gold has dropped 8-10%. So not much gain there. I wouldn't be surprised if $20's continue to outpace bullion right up through the next run at $1000+. There is a shortage of them out there right now while .999 1 oz gold coins can be made as long as scrap/bars/mined gold continues to come to market (ie sort of "unlimited" supply).

It makes sense to me that dealers would recommend such a swap in order to generate a % commission for themselves. Whether bullion or classic $20's do better from here remains to be seen. Obviously the price of the $20's has not crashed in the least so it appears the fears of those people were overblown.

roadrunner

coynclecter

<< <i>some dealers are advising their customers to consider selling or swapping for gold bullion. >>



reminds me of the stock brokers response when asked if people should buy or sell. He said "I don't care as long as they are doing something"

I'd guess the brokers giving "advice" might have some customers with a want list

roadrunner

Another warning is that many people who take cyclical profits, often never get back into the market again. The price of one ounce of gold is getting expensive. How many of those people that took "profits" are guying to hang on until $1200? More than likely, they will opt for a quick 10% and never get back in again. A perfect example is Kitco's Nadler's Noodlers still waiting to buy back in at $650 gold. Before too long they will have waited 2 yrs for their next "opportunity" while seeing the pog move a total of a $1000 in the meantime.

A few people here have said they'll get back in when gold is over $1050 and is in a new "bull" market. I'll believe that when I see it. It's just as likely that gold will crash from $1100-$1200 and never come back as it is from $800-$950. I can't imagine anyone who has spent more than a few hours thinking about the bull market of the past 7 years waiting until $1100 to confirm a new bull, and then hop in at those levels. What, are they gonna watch it run to $1200, then pull back to say $1000 and hang in? Of course not, they'll bail out as soon as it falls below the old high or they are in a losing position and wait until $1300 to try again......rinse, lather, repeat....right up to $2500+.

roadrunner

mhammerman

"Any thoughts?"

Yepper. My wife and I just had this discussion about 6 months ago. The topic was should I sell the lower half of my classic gold coin collection at that time. She said no and my response is that if we don't get out of those low enders now then we have to hold for at least 5 years. It seems that we took the 5 year option since none were sold. So, now may be the time that we start to see the weakness in the coins that was anticipated and it will probably get considerably weaker as we go forward but with one caviat...the good stuff will always be good and it is the middle of the road or lower end material that will tend towards spot. So, we're holding but...looking for what ever target coins that might float to the surface as we enter this situation. You never know, one of those '08 D w/m $10 in 61 might come drifting across the radar or maybe a nice 48 D $5 in 35 or 40 that's not too banged up or over graded or cleaned or has problems or all the things that this date seems to have...yep, there might even be a nice original piece come floating up.

Re: counterfeits

Yeah, it is happening and will probably be more sophisticated as we move forward. For that reason there is a two part response. Firstly, the top two or three grading services will have to step up their game and certify the coins as well as take responsibility for their authenticity or your money back from that grading service. That will stop this silliness in its tracks. That would put the responsibility where it belongs, with the authenticator and collectors must demand this. Secondly, the registration numbers and bar codes must be for that coin in that holder and the numbers should be accessible to membership to at least get some indication that the coin in the holder is not only the one that belongs there but is the proper grade and properly identified. I have noticed that the counterfeits all have different cert numbers but they have the same or very similar bar codes...hummmm, I know dat ain't rite because eventhough I'm not fluent in barcodese, I can recognize the thick and thin line and spaceing sequences. Now, slipping a lower grade genuine coin in a higher grade genuine holder is something that the services will have to work out; they must upgrade the holders to secure the contents including the label and the coin. All in all, it's not a big sweat as long as you do buy certified coins and don't think you are going to make a killing catching a sleeper raw coin and end up being the fish that took the bait...and the hook.

JMHO

Please return to your regularly scheduled programming.

Peaceman

Lat coin show I went to people were buying gold/silve like crazy... so much in fact there were about 30% more tables at the show.... the longer the fed waits to raise rates... the more inflationary it will be preceived...

Weg

I've had the same thoughts about taking profits (or losses) of gold collector coins. My thought is based on the belief that collections are made with disposable income, of which a few million people now have less of. It didn't help when a few coins bought in 04 and 05 at grey sheet were auctioned at the last FUN show and totaled a 25% loss. The coins were generic but slabbed MS64 and 65. After the rise in the price of gold since 04 and hearing more and more people getting into gold coins, how in the world did that happen. For the last couple years most purchases have been gold and silver bullion of different types, and will remain so.

roadrunner

I can't imagine too many typical gold coins bought in 2005/2006 in 64/65 grades selling at a loss in January 2009 (this was close to a bottom in generics). About the only exceptions might have been date premiums that have since subsided. A number of "dated" $10's and $20's have taken some good beatings over the past several years. But I can think of coins like MS64/65 $3 Indians that were $14,000/$22,000 in April 2006 that are down 30-40% since then. Overtime, many of the premiums on better date coins could continue to shrink.

roadrunner

Weg

The key word here is premiums.
If it's for profits, I'll stick to bullion, any form, shape, or size.