gold broke out over 940... here we go??

MoneyLA · February 11, 2009 3:12PM

today, wednesday, gold broke out over 940, and more importantly in late night trading it is a bit higher than 940.

this represents a breakout through the declining tops line that goes back most of the past year. look at the one year gold chart, new york prices.

this break out is significant--- and if there is no retreat in the next two days, we could be off to challenge the 1000+ price level.

I wish you long term holders the best of luck. payday might be coming for you.

ProofCollection · February 11, 2009 11:14PM

The breakout in gold should come today or tomorrow. $1000 (and maybe 1030-1050) is the target for this move up before another consolidation.

roadrunner · February 11, 2009 11:56PM

Depending on how one counts the wave sequence to date, this is either a wave 5 or a wave 3 commencing from November/December. That intial move up back in November that nearly fully retreated is counted by some as the final corrective move from March. In either case we have at least 1 more impulse wave up to complete of which typically the strongest intermediate wave is yet to come. This wave commenced around $890 and considering that the earlier 2 upward waves each added $100+ to the pog, it is realistic to add 60%-160% to those waves (ie $60-$160). We've already added $50 or so this week.

In summary there are still some uplegs that require finishing. And that is strictly the technical analysis side of the equation.

roadrunner

ProofCollection · February 12, 2009 12:00AM

I see $1170 as a possible peak for this movement, which isn't too far away from what you're saying.

roadrunner · February 12, 2009 12:52AM

Gold just touched $950/oz and one major US dealer is offering at wholesale MS65 saints at >$2000 now. MS63's are essentially at $1500. MS63 $20 Libs ready to cross $2000 as well. Who would have thunk? This represents a 7% move from late last week and 18% since the FUN show.....while gold has increased only 11% in that time.

Though gold is still stewing it does appear that there are some huge orders being filled for $20's. Even the small gold is finally starting to show some good gains with MS63 $2-1/2 Indians having recovered from $600 or less to now at $720 or so (+20%). All this has basically happened in less than 6-8 weeks. One day it's in the dog house the next day it's hot again....rinse...lather...repeat.

roadrunner

jmski52 · February 12, 2009 1:17AM

The government is being run by screwups and the big banks are still in business when they never should have been allowed to survive. Poorly-run companies are being bailed out and there is no restraint being shown by anyone. People are being rewarded for making bad decisions on both the micro and macro levels.

Nothing has changed.

And you have any doubt about where gold is going?

Frankly, I don't. The timing is one thing, the direction is much more certain.

ilikebuffaloes · February 12, 2009 2:47AM

The Stock Market going lower is causing more people to plan a SHTF strategy and gold is part of that.

It will be interesting to see if the premiums for physical gold increase as demand becomes stronger.

Platinum is also making a nice comeback.

57loaded · February 12, 2009 2:58AM

<< The Stock Market going lower is causing more people to plan a SHTF strategy and gold is part of that.

It will be interesting to see if the premiums for physical gold increase as demand becomes stronger.

Platinum is also making a nice comeback. >>

read RR comments above about POG and Saints

i think the margin could even grow larger as more and more will want to have it in physical possession. even tough we discuss it here daily, i do not think it has scratched the surface. also many financially can't jump on the bandwagon right now, so in some cases that might reduce the margins.

when joe lunchbox pawns his flat screen to buy some PM's.....it's time to turn out the lights

roadrunner · February 12, 2009 5:17AM

Rick Ackerman predicted this move to $950 back at around $840. He states that exceeding a hidden pivot point at $952 would likely propel gold much higher. In following the guy for several years, his calls in stocks, currencies, and metals have been pretty good.

roadrunner

BBN · February 12, 2009 6:02AM

I'm now going all out in gold and silver. I've lost all faith in stocks. Every pay period I'm buying a 1/10 AGE and 5-6 ounces of SAEs or Maple Leafs

coynclecter · February 12, 2009 11:51AM

<< Gold just touched $950/oz and one major US dealer is offering at wholesale MS65 saints at >$2000 now. MS63's are essentially at $1500. MS63 $20 Libs ready to cross $2000 as well. Who would have thunk? This represents a 7% move from late last week and 18% since the FUN show.....while gold has increased only 11% in that time.

Though gold is still stewing it does appear that there are some huge orders being filled for $20's. Even the small gold is finally starting to show some good gains with MS63 $2-1/2 Indians having recovered from $600 or less to now at $720 or so (+20%). All this has basically happened in less than 6-8 weeks. One day it's in the dog house the next day it's hot again....rinse...lather...repeat.

roadrunner >>

hmmmmm. I put together a 12 piece type set in 62-64 back in 02. I havent been paying attention to prices but figured with an upgrade or two it might be worth close to 10K. Maybe I should be refiguring.

illini420 · February 12, 2009 12:10PM

<< I'm now going all out in gold and silver. I've lost all faith in stocks. Every pay period I'm buying a 1/10 AGE and 5-6 ounces of SAEs or Maple Leafs >>

I've sort of did that for awhile, but I'd buy a little bit of 90% junk silver each month until I had a decent stash. I'm just not a fan of paying the premium for eagles though. Make sure to have a nice safe deposit box or a good safe at home though

BBN · February 12, 2009 12:35PM

Yup. Got me a nice HEAVY gunsafe. Crazy comeback for the illini tonight huh?

illini420 · February 12, 2009 12:40PM

oh yeah, heck of a rally they made there... Go Illini!

MoneyLA · February 12, 2009 12:44PM

57loaded wrote: "when joe lunchbox pawns his flat screen to buy some PM's.....it's time to turn out the lights "

Actually, youve got the right idea. But realistically, when the main stream media and CNBC start talking about the bullmarket in gold, then the bull market will be over.

BBN · February 12, 2009 12:46PM

Fox News talked about gold for a few minutes today

ProofCollection · February 12, 2009 2:38PM

My barometer will be when my non-coin friends begin to start talking about coins and PMs. We're not there yet - not even close.

coynclecter · February 12, 2009 3:09PM

I have heard that before ....when everyone starts talking about gold then its time to sell.

So

When everyone says its raining outside.... then its time to put the umbrella back in the closet.

fc · February 12, 2009 11:51PM

<< I have heard that before ....when everyone starts talking about gold then its time to sell.

So

When everyone says its raining outside.... then its time to put the umbrella back in the closet. >>

it was a great barometer for the housing cycle.
it was a great barometer for the tech boom about 8 years ago.
it was a great barometer for the previous gold/silver boom in the 80s.
it was a great barometer for the comic and baseball card markets
before they went sploosh.

i could go on and on....

57loaded · February 13, 2009 12:59AM

in reality i think joe lunchbox would rather watch tv, drink beer and wait for the check to arrive in the mail from some type of "living standard stipend for the unemployed and unmotivated" that is of course tied into the CPI...only half joking...if he does pawn the TV for PM, yeah it's lights out.

the only element missing for gld will be an incredible jump in delivery for PM futures and a collapse of the ETF's. the lights won't be out then, BTW.

joe lunchbox doesn't watch CNBC, but he does watch late night TV and is curious about the viatical settlement commercials and wonders if he can "sell" his future government assistance checks at a discount.

roadrunner · February 13, 2009 7:18AM

Actually, youve got the right idea. But realistically, when the main stream media and CNBC start talking about the bullmarket in gold, then the bull market will be over.

When Larry Krudlowe calls it a gold bull and recommends buying gold or gold stocks, then it surely will be close to the end.

As far as J6P even thinking about buying gold, it just won't happen. So forget about the umbrellas and weather forecasts. What you will need to look out for is the hit rate on the internet, on the blogs, in newspaper and TV ads, brokerage appeals, etc. The American J6P will consider gold to be a barbarous relic right to the bitter end. Most feel that stocks will come back soon enough as will housing. They'll keep their cash under a mattress before even considering gold. I have well-educated and intelligent siblings who still think of those who buy coins and bullion as some rogue freak of nature. For them it will be real estate, bonds and growth stocks.....only. There is no 4th alternative. And that's fine. To each their own. In other nations J6P thinks entirely differently about gold. The fact that 300,000,000+ Americans won't be participating in the PM's will have no consequence on how they perform.

roadrunner

ProofCollection · February 13, 2009 7:28AM

FWIW, most J6P's didn't even participate in the housing market bubble even though they could have.

BBN · February 13, 2009 8:11AM

even in an era where people are getting financially wiped out and their debts are massively accumulating average Joe still cares more about watching American Idol and have a nice car to show off to friends than they do their future.

OPA · February 13, 2009 8:26AM

<< even in an era where people are getting financially wiped out and their debts are massively accumulating average Joe still cares more about watching American Idol and have a nice car to show off to friends than they do their future. >>

Yup .. I agree. Judging from eBay search results, there are only 7156 gold and silver bullion sales currently running. Should be 10 x that amount.

gold broke out over 940... here we go??

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