I agree is theory, but how about this thought, which tests some of our built in assumptions...
Just maybe, the 'chance' is that the coin, if submitted, WOULD NOT cross (in actuality), not whether it has or HAS NOT crossed (in reality). So the issue, from the owner's standpoint, may be a matter of perception. For example, right now, there could be people, hypothetically, who have knowledge of the coin being submitted, and NOT actually crossing. This would be a situation that could reflect on the value of the coin in a negative way upon sale. BUT, if the owner of the coin has never submitted the coin for a cross, in reality and for strategic reasons, and this is now also known by a few, the hope that the coin MAY yet cross is still alive. The owner of the coin may be employing this tactic. Just because PCGS does not have a policy of reporting whether a coin has been submitted for cross does not in reality indicate whether the coin was submitted for cross is a actual known or unknown bit of information in the coin community. The coin community, especially among the matte proof Lincoln collectors, is small, so while the point made is correct in theory, it may or may not be correct in practice. Remember, if you have just decided to sell your VDB this year, you may have kept it in it's holder for all these years, as whether it was in a PCGS holder or not was moot (maybe the registry was not an issue for you, the seller). But now you want to sell, and advised that the coin may or may not cross, given the recent stringent PCGS practices. In that case, the wise move may keep the promise of the cross alive by not submitting, and thus ensuring that no information on a possible cross becomes known. One might still receive a premium on the ANACS coin.
Excellent analysis but it only holds water if one believes the holder was not rational (from an economic theory perspective) and did seek to optimize its' value.
Who cares if he got opinions that it would not cross.
Wasn't the expected value of a submission to PCGS not greater than the grading fee?
e.g. a $100 grading fee versus a possible $10,000 bump in value would equate to requiring you to beleive that you had a less than 1% chance of a cross in order for your threshold to decide not to submit to be triggered ($20,000 bump/<.5%, etc).
Seems the math would indicate - that if one believed the seller was rational he would have done the above expected value calculations and taken action accordingly.
Making the assumption that a market participant did not act rationally (absent any evidence to the contrary) is a very dangerous methodology for inferring the true course of past events
Hey, I had to think of something to write!! I do think the holder of the coin could have submitted for cross and been denied. But the real question is when?
Any given day the PCGS man can say yes or no. You've been in business long enough to know that argument's validity first hand. And while over the last year, things have tightened up, but that's not to say it will always be that way.
Interesting thought process about the seller of this coin. How about this:
In April and September, 2002 Heritage auctioned two ANACS PR63RB 1909VDB MPL's. One buyer was me. The other buyer was apparently the person now selling this coin. MY interest was to get the coin crossed to PCGS so as to complete my PCGS MPL set registry. I was not looking at it regarding future value although I perceived at the time that the coin in a PCGS holder would be more valuable than the coin in an ANACS holder. The buyer of the September, 2002 coin COULD be a collector like me who either tried to cross at the same grade and failed OR just didn't try at all. The original buyer could have been a dealer who later passed this coin on to another collector. Who knows? Whatever the circumstances that has lead the seller to now auction the coin, the key question is what demand is out there in this economy for this rare coin. I look forward to hearing Brian's comments when he sees the coin in hand in Baltimore. Steve
I cetainly acknowledge the greater than zero proibability that this coin never took a trip to Newport Beach and am really only going with the odds and playing devil's advocate,
BUT
You also have to assume that Heritage, given at least their implicit fiduciary duty to advise the consignor what needed to be done to get the highest price (a duty completely in line with their own self-interest) would ALSO have advised a PCGS cross-over attempt (or two).
Heck, from the time it was submitted for the auction until the time they first posted it as available in the auction (and even beyond that time as they could always withdraw/replace a lot) they would have had AMPLE opportunity to send it to PCGS for NUMEROUS crossover attempts.
Okay - you got me! : ) I was playing the devil too.
My truth of the matter is that right now, buyer beware on any Non-PCGS graded coins where a cross-over is the buying strategy (whether the coin is ANACS, NGC or any other).
Especially if a question arises on the coin that cannot be resolved without an in-hand evaluation (like specks, spots, rim dings, etc.) Just TOO much at stake.
And considering the prices we saw for the last VDBs at auction, I need tea leaves to figure out this stuff
Good point - Kudos for Steve! he made the right call, and especially at the right time. But times change.....
My previous point stands for either this coin or the other (NGC) coin being sold by Stacks. I did not realize that was a Non-PCGS coin, at all. While that NGC coin is a nicer coin than the ones sold at the last auction, the reason I bring it up is that it relates to cross-over attempts that we are discussing.
I think that Steve, RB and illini420 have all been making the same point. I really was playing the devil's advocate. This is a rough market for both high prices and cross-overs for any coins but the perfect. No gimmes on Lincoln cross-overs this year
At this early stage in the bidding, Steve, do you think 8 people have had the opportunity to actually see the coin in-hand, are serious bidders, and think the coin is just awesome, or are maybe just collectors hitting buttons like a video game? I'd bet the latter is true. If I'm correct, you have to wonder how serious the true bidding is on this coin, even if it has come out of the gate strong. We all know that one cannot lose on this coin at a 9-15K bid. But what happens when the serious "sight-seen" bidders take over will dictate the true appeal for this coin. No one will bid 'blind' at those levels.
Duane, I may be wrong, but based on what I've heard so far, based on the economy, based on the assumption I have that the top collectors will NOT participate in this auction, I think this coin will be lucky to generate more than mid teen price, if that. It is a great opportunity for someone who wants and needs this coin for his collection, but has somewhat limited funds to spend to get this rare coin. But, if the potential buyer is just thinking of a short term opportunity to flip the coin for a nice profit once the economy improves he may be mistaken. The "value" in this coin, IMHO, is OWNING a rare coin that you can't otherwise get by calling up your favorite dealer. The "value" in this coin is also being in fairly easy position to then own the complete 9 coin collection of MPL's. Each of us has different reasons why we collect. I'm just expressing mine. Steve
P.S. I think at least two or three of the current bidders ARE serious and would love to be able to win this coin at a reasonable (to them) price.
We are in total agreement on almost all points. This VDB is a good investment coin at a reasonable price, but maybe iffy on a higher flip in a bad economy. People's motives for buying are important. I did not know that the "top" collectors are not participating (whatever that means! : ) ), but that may not matter for this coin, as a high end MPL is usually considered a PR66 and up. PR63, with all respect, would not draw bigger collectors, unless they honestly thought a flip could be had (that is surely my own opinion only). I do think that this coin is better than the others we saw sell at +/- 17K, if nice in-hand, so honestly cannot see this coin going for less money. I still think 20K is the bottom for this coin. And +/- 20K (for anyone) is not chump change. I do think that you are dead on about the collectors who need this coin to complete the set. It's just a question of whether the coin will be affortable enough in this economy to justify buying a coin that may not end up in a PCGS holder. In that instance, the very reason for buying the coin is negated. 15-20K is a lot of money to spend on an 'maybe'. I think that there must be a few serious bidders in the mix at this point, but they may have very different reasons are for biding.
If i was going to spend 13K i would rather have bought one of the VDB's that were in NGC holders at least those would have crossed to PCGS at a minimum of PR63 if not higher
Comments
Just maybe, the 'chance' is that the coin, if submitted, WOULD NOT cross (in actuality), not whether it has or HAS NOT crossed (in reality). So the issue, from the owner's standpoint, may be a matter of perception. For example, right now, there could be people, hypothetically, who have knowledge of the coin being submitted, and NOT actually crossing. This would be a situation that could reflect on the value of the coin in a negative way upon sale. BUT, if the owner of the coin has never submitted the coin for a cross, in reality and for strategic reasons, and this is now also known by a few, the hope that the coin MAY yet cross is still alive. The owner of the coin may be employing this tactic. Just because PCGS does not have a policy of reporting whether a coin has been submitted for cross does not in reality indicate whether the coin was submitted for cross is a actual known or unknown bit of information in the coin community. The coin community, especially among the matte proof Lincoln collectors, is small, so while the point made is correct in theory, it may or may not be correct in practice. Remember, if you have just decided to sell your VDB this year, you may have kept it in it's holder for all these years, as whether it was in a PCGS holder or not was moot (maybe the registry was not an issue for you, the seller). But now you want to sell, and advised that the coin may or may not cross, given the recent stringent PCGS practices. In that case, the wise move may keep the promise of the cross alive by not submitting, and thus ensuring that no information on a possible cross becomes known. One might still receive a premium on the ANACS coin.
Just a theory.....
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Excellent analysis but it only holds water if one believes the holder was not rational (from an economic theory perspective) and did seek to optimize its' value.
Who cares if he got opinions that it would not cross.
Wasn't the expected value of a submission to PCGS not greater than the grading fee?
e.g. a $100 grading fee versus a possible $10,000 bump in value would equate to requiring you to beleive that you had a less than 1% chance
of a cross in order for your threshold to decide not to submit to be triggered ($20,000 bump/<.5%, etc).
Seems the math would indicate - that if one believed the seller was rational he would have done the above expected value calculations and taken action accordingly.
Making the assumption that a market participant did not act rationally (absent any evidence to the contrary) is a very dangerous methodology for inferring the true course of past events
Hey, I had to think of something to write!! I do think the holder of the coin could have submitted for cross and been denied. But the real question is when?
Any given day the PCGS man can say yes or no. You've been in business long enough to know that argument's validity first hand. And while over the last year, things have tightened up, but that's not to say it will always be that way.
Duane
In April and September, 2002 Heritage auctioned two ANACS PR63RB 1909VDB MPL's. One buyer was me. The other buyer was apparently the person now selling this coin. MY interest was to get the coin crossed to PCGS so as to complete my PCGS MPL set registry. I was not looking at it regarding future value although I perceived at the time that the coin in a PCGS holder would be more valuable than the coin in an ANACS holder. The buyer of the September, 2002 coin COULD be a collector like me who either tried to cross at the same grade and failed OR just didn't try at all. The original buyer could have been a dealer who later passed this coin on to another collector. Who knows? Whatever the circumstances that has lead the seller to now auction the coin, the key question is what demand is out there in this economy for this rare coin. I look forward to hearing Brian's comments when he sees the coin in hand in Baltimore. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
That is an amazing story. The same auction!? Wow. Thanks for sharing. Did you bid on the present VDB in 2002?
It will be interesting to see what this tough market really allows for VDBs right now. I too think that Brian's opinion of this coin will be critical.
Duane
I cetainly acknowledge the greater than zero proibability that this coin never took a trip to Newport Beach and am really only going with the odds and playing devil's advocate,
BUT
You also have to assume that Heritage, given at least their implicit fiduciary duty to advise the consignor what needed to be done to get the highest price (a duty completely in line with their own self-interest) would ALSO have advised a PCGS cross-over attempt (or two).
Heck, from the time it was submitted for the auction until the time they first posted it as available in the auction (and even beyond that time as they could always withdraw/replace a lot) they would have had AMPLE opportunity to send it to PCGS for NUMEROUS crossover attempts.
Okay - you got me! : ) I was playing the devil too.
My truth of the matter is that right now, buyer beware on any Non-PCGS graded coins where a cross-over is the buying strategy (whether the coin is ANACS, NGC or any other).
Especially if a question arises on the coin that cannot be resolved without an in-hand evaluation (like specks, spots, rim dings, etc.) Just TOO much at stake.
And considering the prices we saw for the last VDBs at auction, I need tea leaves to figure out this stuff
We must ALL agreed on that one!
Duane
<< <i>Steve-
That is an amazing story. The same auction!? Wow. Thanks for sharing. Did you bid on the present VDB in 2002? >>
One thing is for sure... Steve bought the coin that actually DID manage to get crossed over to PCGS.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
My previous point stands for either this coin or the other (NGC) coin being sold by Stacks. I did not realize that was a Non-PCGS coin, at all. While that NGC coin is a nicer coin than the ones sold at the last auction, the reason I bring it up is that it relates to cross-over attempts that we are discussing.
I think that Steve, RB and illini420 have all been making the same point. I really was playing the devil's advocate. This is a rough market for both high prices and cross-overs for any coins but the perfect. No gimmes on Lincoln cross-overs this year
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I may be wrong, but based on what I've heard so far, based on the economy, based on the assumption I have that the top collectors will NOT participate in this auction, I think this coin will be lucky to generate more than mid teen price, if that. It is a great opportunity for someone who wants and needs this coin for his collection, but has somewhat limited funds to spend to get this rare coin. But, if the potential buyer is just thinking of a short term opportunity to flip the coin for a nice profit once the economy improves he may be mistaken. The "value" in this coin, IMHO, is OWNING a rare coin that you can't otherwise get by calling up your favorite dealer. The "value" in this coin is also being in fairly easy position to then own the complete 9 coin collection of MPL's. Each of us has different reasons why we collect. I'm just expressing mine.
Steve
P.S. I think at least two or three of the current bidders ARE serious and would love to be able to win this coin at a reasonable (to them) price.
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
We are in total agreement on almost all points. This VDB is a good investment coin at a reasonable price, but maybe iffy on a higher flip in a bad economy. People's motives for buying are important. I did not know that the "top" collectors are not participating (whatever that means! : ) ), but that may not matter for this coin, as a high end MPL is usually considered a PR66 and up. PR63, with all respect, would not draw bigger collectors, unless they honestly thought a flip could be had (that is surely my own opinion only). I do think that this coin is better than the others we saw sell at +/- 17K, if nice in-hand, so honestly cannot see this coin going for less money. I still think 20K is the bottom for this coin. And +/- 20K (for anyone) is not chump change. I do think that you are dead on about the collectors who need this coin to complete the set. It's just a question of whether the coin will be affortable enough in this economy to justify buying a coin that may not end up in a PCGS holder. In that instance, the very reason for buying the coin is negated. 15-20K is a lot of money to spend on an 'maybe'. I think that there must be a few serious bidders in the mix at this point, but they may have very different reasons are for biding.
Duane
I think my current bid (the high bid of $9,775 w/the juice) is my last.
Let's watch those pops closely to see if it crosses.