Hysteria, in its colloquial use, describes a state of mind, one of unmanageable fear or emotional excesses.
but you did manage to find something, at the very least, something to refute in my post. well done!
I wasn't necessarily trying to refute your post. It is simply my opinion that we haven't yet seen the top in terms of pricing, premiums, availability or crowd behavior.
In 1980, the coin shop I frequented in South St. Louis had lines stretching about 1/2 block with people lined up to sell their silver, and yet there wasn't any hysteria.
I don't have a good recollection of what the premiums were, but it was a very fluid situation, because prices were rising pretty quickly. I'm thinking that the dealers had a larger spread simply to protect themselves in the event of large movements in the price of spot silver.
Keep in mind that in 1980, the Comex price did reflect the market - whereas today's Comex price appears to be completely bogus. Interpret that any way you'd like.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
>>There was no hysteria in 1980 and there isn't any hysteria now.<<
Maybe it wasn't quite hysteria in 1980, but there was certainly pandemonium. I was in one of the lines to sell several rolls of 90% junk silver to a B&M dealer. The exchanges were fast and furious, and the staff appeared frazzled because of the nonstop activity. Premiums for junk silver at the time were about minus 22 percent of melt for dealer purchases, and negative to a lesser extent for dealer sales. Most customers were selling. The dealer actually overpaid me for my silver (I returned the overpayment, though), and I imagine there were many other transaction errors in the fast-paced buying and selling. It would certainly qualify as hysteria by some definitions.
<< <i>>>There was no hysteria in 1980 and there isn't any hysteria now.<<
Maybe it wasn't quite hysteria in 1980, but there was certainly pandemonium. I was in one of the lines to sell several rolls of 90% junk silver to a B&M dealer. The exchanges were fast and furious, and the staff appeared frazzled because of the nonstop activity. Premiums for junk silver at the time were about minus 22 percent of melt for dealer purchases, and negative to a lesser extent for dealer sales. Most customers were selling. The dealer actually overpaid me for my silver (I returned the overpayment, though), and I imagine there were many other transaction errors in the fast-paced buying and selling. It would certainly qualify as hysteria by some definitions. >>
if 90% US silver coins were at minus 22% melt.. was there anything you remember fetching melt exactly or above from that dealer?
>>if 90% US silver coins were at minus 22% melt.. was there anything you remember fetching melt exactly or above from that dealer?<<
Unfortunately, no . . . pretty much all I saw were people selling coins, some 40% but mostly 90% silver. I believe the negative premium for war nickels was even steeper than for the other coins, much like the situation now.
<< <i>Obviously the premiums for brand name silver change over time.
But some level of premium will always be there. It's baked into the cake. There's always been a premium, even if it changes over time. Even if silver hits $50, there will still be a slight premium for the better name stuff. >>
I was not old enough to experience the mad rush for silver 20 some years ago and that seems to be the only time frame to compare to.
But i do agree with you that premiums are always changing and based on what i have learned they were unnaturally high the last 6 months and are steadily declining. Now we even see "sales".
Once the hysteria dies down and metals stick in a normal trading range i expect further declines. >>
Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. I know in many places, including Europe, people are happy to pay 50% premium over "spot" for physical silver.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Can someone tell me where to find daily gold & silver price charts for 1975 through 1981? I have my purchase and sale records, but I don't have the corresponding spot prices. A daily price chart would be close enough to see what the premiums were at the time of the transactions.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Yes, a daily chart will give me a fairly accurate number for the spot price, which I need to calculate the premium that I paid or received when I bought or sold on a particular day.
I have the data from my transactions, and all I need is an accurate spot silver price. I have the gold spot prices, and if I can't find the exact silver spot price, I can eyeball the silver price, but it's not as precise.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
To put some historical perspective on premiums, here are some notes on the (approximate) premiums that I paid and received back in 1978-1981 on various gold and silver transactions. These were all physical metal transactions.
Transaction #1 - Apr. 9, 1979 - Bought 80 British Gold Sovereigns for $5,792.00 at a 28.0% premium. Gold Spot = $240.20.
Flip Side of #1 - July 2, 1980 - Sold 80 British Gold Sovereigns for $14,834.00 at a 19.1% premium. Gold Spot = $661.50.
Transaction #2 - Oct. 15, 1980 - Bought 40 1/10 oz. Kruggerands for $3,140.80 at a 15.8% premium. Gold Spot = $678.00.
Flip Side of #2 - Jan. 27, 1981 - Sold 40 1/10 oz. Kruggerands for $2,268.88 at a premium of 8.0%. Gold Spot = $567.22.
Transaction #3 - Sept. 17, 1977 - Bought $75 Face 90% silver for $237.18 at a discount of 5.4% below melt. Silver Spot = $4.62.
Transaction #4 - Apr. 15, 1978 - Bought $100 Face 90% silver for $403.00 at 10% over melt. Silver Spot = $5.05.
Transaction #5 - Oct. 18, 1979 - Bought $500 Face 90% silver for $2,191.43 at 4.24% over melt. Silver Spot = $5.82.
Flip Sides of #3 and #4 - Jan. 27, 1981 - Sold $175 Face 90% silver for $1,750.00 at 4.3% over melt. Silver Spot = $13.83.
Flip Side of #5 - Mar. 2, 1981 - Sold $500 Face 90% silver for $4,690.69 at 13.1% over melt. Silver Spot = $12.99.
Transaction #6 - Nov. 20, 1978 - Bought 10 1 oz. Kruggerands for $2,136.00 at 7.6% over spot. Gold Spot = $198.85.
Flip Side of #6 - Mar. 2, 1981 - Sold 10 1 oz. Kruggerands for $4,770.68 at 2.5% over spot. Gold Spot = $477.07.
Transaction #7 - Oct. 18, 1978 - Bought (Qty - 104) 90% silver dollars for $623.30 at 33.1% over spot. Silver Spot = $5.82.
Flip Side of #7 - Dec. 6, 1981 - Sold (Qty - 104) 90% silver dollars for $1,135.44 at 59.8% over spot. Silver Spot = $14.11.
Looking at this data, I'm not sure that you can draw many conclusions other than the fact that there was plenty of volatility in the prices and premiums, both.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
well JM bars are now on sale at APMEX for .59 cents over spot for the next 48 hours. i wonder if that has anything to do with silver spiking up a buck and some change recently
now a sale at .49 cents over melt per ounce over at apmex.
paying 3-4 dollars an ounce over melt was being justified as the cost of getting in just a short while ago! how silly!
i expect in two years you will goto your coin store and be able to buy practically at melt or slightly above. Say 3-4 dollars premium on a 10 oz bar at the highest.
more then likely demand will be so low that coin stores will pay back of melt by a few dollars and then mark it up a few dollars above melt just to make some money.
imagine the flood of silver that will be on the market due to this awesome production over the last 16 months!
It would appear to me that the premiums are a function of market volatility, and it makes sense. Middlemen cannot afford to trade the material for a tiny premium when the price swings are as big as they were late last year, as such, the premiums needed to be higher. The volatility index (for stocks) is back down to a fairly normal range, and gold and silver movements have become more reasonable as well. Additionally, supply chain issues for small bullion have been ironed out
I will point out though that the US Mint (to my knowledge) has yet to even mention a 2009 proof silver eagle. The bullion version is keeping them too busy.
Comments
There was no hysteria in 1980 and there isn't any hysteria now. If there is going to be hysteria, you'll know it when you see it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Once the hysteria dies down and metals stick in a normal trading range i expect further declines.
There was no hysteria in 1980 and there isn't any hysteria now. If there is going to be hysteria, you'll know it when you see it. >>
i use the word loosely. i also feel you are picking on a small point.
then and now.. the metals have a greater interest among the general public
then they normally do.
Hysteria, in its colloquial use, describes a state of mind, one of unmanageable fear or emotional excesses.
but you did manage to find something, at the very least, something to refute in my post.
well done!
but you did manage to find something, at the very least, something to refute in my post. well done!
I wasn't necessarily trying to refute your post. It is simply my opinion that we haven't yet seen the top in terms of pricing, premiums, availability or crowd behavior.
In 1980, the coin shop I frequented in South St. Louis had lines stretching about 1/2 block with people lined up to sell their silver, and yet there wasn't any hysteria.
I don't have a good recollection of what the premiums were, but it was a very fluid situation, because prices were rising pretty quickly. I'm thinking that the dealers had a larger spread simply to protect themselves in the event of large movements in the price of spot silver.
Keep in mind that in 1980, the Comex price did reflect the market - whereas today's Comex price appears to be completely bogus. Interpret that any way you'd like.
I knew it would happen.
Maybe it wasn't quite hysteria in 1980, but there was certainly pandemonium. I was in one of the lines to sell several rolls of 90% junk silver to a B&M dealer. The exchanges were fast and furious, and the staff appeared frazzled because of the nonstop activity. Premiums for junk silver at the time were about minus 22 percent of melt for dealer purchases, and negative to a lesser extent for dealer sales. Most customers were selling. The dealer actually overpaid me for my silver (I returned the overpayment, though), and I imagine there were many other transaction errors in the fast-paced buying and selling. It would certainly qualify as hysteria by some definitions.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>>>There was no hysteria in 1980 and there isn't any hysteria now.<<
Maybe it wasn't quite hysteria in 1980, but there was certainly pandemonium. I was in one of the lines to sell several rolls of 90% junk silver to a B&M dealer. The exchanges were fast and furious, and the staff appeared frazzled because of the nonstop activity. Premiums for junk silver at the time were about minus 22 percent of melt for dealer purchases, and negative to a lesser extent for dealer sales. Most customers were selling. The dealer actually overpaid me for my silver (I returned the overpayment, though), and I imagine there were many other transaction errors in the fast-paced buying and selling. It would certainly qualify as hysteria by some definitions. >>
if 90% US silver coins were at minus 22% melt.. was there anything
you remember fetching melt exactly or above from that dealer?
Unfortunately, no . . . pretty much all I saw were people selling coins, some 40% but mostly 90% silver. I believe the negative premium for war nickels was even steeper than for the other coins, much like the situation now.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I might still have some records of my transactions from then. If I can find them in the next few days, I'll report. >>
that would be great! it would be interesting to know what fetched
a premium above spot in those heady days of the rise of silver.
i imagine for most dealers nothing paid more then spot for the fear
the dealer would have to sell it to the smelter at a loss due to volatility?
<< <i>
<< <i>Obviously the premiums for brand name silver change over time.
But some level of premium will always be there. It's baked into the cake. There's always been a premium, even if it changes over time. Even if silver hits $50, there will still be a slight premium for the better name stuff. >>
I was not old enough to experience the mad rush for silver 20 some
years ago and that seems to be the only time frame to compare to.
But i do agree with you that premiums are always changing and based
on what i have learned they were unnaturally high the last 6 months
and are steadily declining. Now we even see "sales".
Once the hysteria dies down and metals stick in a normal trading range i expect further declines. >>
Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. I know in many places, including Europe, people are happy to pay 50% premium over "spot" for physical silver.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I knew it would happen.
-sm
The Maddy Rae Collection
CURRENT BST OFFERINGS
I knew it would happen.
Nevermind, I see you wanted a daily chart
Yes, a daily chart will give me a fairly accurate number for the spot price, which I need to calculate the premium that I paid or received when I bought or sold on a particular day.
I have the data from my transactions, and all I need is an accurate spot silver price. I have the gold spot prices, and if I can't find the exact silver spot price, I can eyeball the silver price, but it's not as precise.
I knew it would happen.
I see on Tulving's website that the premiums for Silver Eagles has dropped from $3.99 to $3.49.
However, the premium for Comex-deliverable 1000 oz. bars has INCREASED from $0.29 to $0.49.
I knew it would happen.
Transaction #1 - Apr. 9, 1979 - Bought 80 British Gold Sovereigns for $5,792.00 at a 28.0% premium. Gold Spot = $240.20.
Flip Side of #1 - July 2, 1980 - Sold 80 British Gold Sovereigns for $14,834.00 at a 19.1% premium. Gold Spot = $661.50.
Transaction #2 - Oct. 15, 1980 - Bought 40 1/10 oz. Kruggerands for $3,140.80 at a 15.8% premium. Gold Spot = $678.00.
Flip Side of #2 - Jan. 27, 1981 - Sold 40 1/10 oz. Kruggerands for $2,268.88 at a premium of 8.0%. Gold Spot = $567.22.
Transaction #3 - Sept. 17, 1977 - Bought $75 Face 90% silver for $237.18 at a discount of 5.4% below melt. Silver Spot = $4.62.
Transaction #4 - Apr. 15, 1978 - Bought $100 Face 90% silver for $403.00 at 10% over melt. Silver Spot = $5.05.
Transaction #5 - Oct. 18, 1979 - Bought $500 Face 90% silver for $2,191.43 at 4.24% over melt. Silver Spot = $5.82.
Flip Sides of #3 and #4 - Jan. 27, 1981 - Sold $175 Face 90% silver for $1,750.00 at 4.3% over melt. Silver Spot = $13.83.
Flip Side of #5 - Mar. 2, 1981 - Sold $500 Face 90% silver for $4,690.69 at 13.1% over melt. Silver Spot = $12.99.
Transaction #6 - Nov. 20, 1978 - Bought 10 1 oz. Kruggerands for $2,136.00 at 7.6% over spot. Gold Spot = $198.85.
Flip Side of #6 - Mar. 2, 1981 - Sold 10 1 oz. Kruggerands for $4,770.68 at 2.5% over spot. Gold Spot = $477.07.
Transaction #7 - Oct. 18, 1978 - Bought (Qty - 104) 90% silver dollars for $623.30 at 33.1% over spot. Silver Spot = $5.82.
Flip Side of #7 - Dec. 6, 1981 - Sold (Qty - 104) 90% silver dollars for $1,135.44 at 59.8% over spot. Silver Spot = $14.11.
Looking at this data, I'm not sure that you can draw many conclusions other than the fact that there was plenty of volatility in the prices and premiums, both.
I knew it would happen.
many different bars only .99 cents over spot.. including smaller sizes.
http://www.apmex.com/Category/978/APMEX___099_Silver_Sale.aspx
engelhard or JM 100 oz bars... 99 cents over spot.
premiums just keep falling. fact.
edited to add: and no way to make a fast buck off of it due to ebay buyers getting a clue :-(
<< <i>apmex is now having silver sales. heh. imagine that.
many different bars only .99 cents over spot.. including smaller sizes.
http://www.apmex.com/Category/978/APMEX___099_Silver_Sale.aspx
engelhard or JM 100 oz bars... 99 cents over spot.
premiums just keep falling. fact.
edited to add: and no way to make a fast buck off of it due to ebay buyers getting a clue :-( >>
Geez at this rate pretty soon the premiums will be 2-3 bucks under spot!!!
i wonder if that has anything to do with silver spiking up a buck and some change
recently
paying 3-4 dollars an ounce over melt was being justified as the cost
of getting in just a short while ago! how silly!
i expect in two years you will goto your coin store and be able to
buy practically at melt or slightly above. Say 3-4 dollars premium on
a 10 oz bar at the highest.
more then likely demand will be so low that coin stores will pay back
of melt by a few dollars and then mark it up a few dollars above melt
just to make some money.
imagine the flood of silver that will be on the market due to this awesome
production over the last 16 months!
Nothing wrong with that, we all need it, some more and some less and at times a whole lot more or a whole lot less.
<< <i>I'm beginning to think that someone on here needs lots of attention lately.
Nothing wrong with that, we all need it, some more and some less and at times a whole lot more or a whole lot less. >>
i started this thread to keep track of premiums.
i guess updating my own thread is a cry out to the world for attention.
lol.
I will point out though that the US Mint (to my knowledge) has yet to even mention a 2009 proof silver eagle. The bullion version is keeping them too busy.