First Spouse New Year's Eve 2009 price predicition thread........Care to put it in writing?

Swampboy

I know that the price these First Spouse Gold coins sell for next New Year's Eve will be linked to price of gold at that time and that, therefore, this thread might be more appropriate on another CU forum.

Having said that, I sure would like to know what the members of this forum think these mint offerings will be trading for 12 months down the pike.

My guess is that I will be able to pick up a Lib Spouse for well under $600 same as today.

lope208

Some are predicting $2000 gold this year. Personally, I think we'll top $1000 and stay there for a while.
I have no basis for this prediction other than my own meandering experience, however

I am still stuck on whether I should put together a slabbed set of these ladies or keep it raw.

They are a little pricey for me, but I like the set and I think in the long run they will become
more popular when the big time ladies are introduced.

Funny thing is, it's cheaper to buy them on the secondary market already slabbed instead of the Mint!

One prediction I am confident in making is that mintages for 2009 will continue to go DOWN DOWN DOWN for
some of these, especially since there are five issues this year.

OPA

<< <i>One prediction I am confident in making is that mintages for 2009 will continue to go DOWN DOWN DOWN for >>



Most will trade ... spot Gold + $40 - $60 range

ozzyfan269

If the mintage are low or not I predict that very few of these will do well in our life times. These are nothing more than poorly executed commemoratives with no collector base at all. Perhaps the 4 liberties will do well, but I have my doubts about those as well because this series is so unpopular.

COINB0Y

I am still stuck on whether I should put together a slabbed set of these ladies or keep it raw.

Whelp, since you need not worry of someone counterfeiting them, lol, Raw is good because of the great Mint packaging.

I talked my sister into keeping her coin ungraded.

If the Mint did anything right in the past 2 years, it is the evolution/revolution they made in packaging for some of the Gold; like these ladies and the Buff Fractional series.

(Of course, the ending of the Buff Fractionals now cancels that brilliance out )

illini420

<< <i>I am still stuck on whether I should put together a slabbed set of these ladies or keep it raw.

Whelp, since you need not worry of someone counterfeiting them, lol, Raw is good because of the great Mint packaging.
>>



Keeping all mine raw too, just don't think it's worth the grading fees to be told whether it's a 69 or 70. Plus, seems like the value would be less than a raw coin once it's in a 69 holder. The problem with the mint packaging is that it's so bulky compared to the size of the coin. I'm thinking ahead and trying to figure out how I'm going to store/display the full set of 80+ of these (proof and uncs). Doesn't seem like it'll be too easy to do.

Not sure what exactly we're being asked to predicted by the OP... looking for a guess on the price of the new First Spouse Coin that is released in Nov 2009?? Or the market price that the current coins trade at on 12/31/09?? If it's the latter, which I think is what is being asked, that would depend on the coin.

Sure, the prices right now seem to be tied to the spot price for the most part, but I don't think that's entirely the case (haven't done any pricing research to back it up though ). Like those that bought junk silver when spot was $20+ and it was going for 12-14x face, you don't often find them selling for 8x face now unless they are really tapped for cash and have no better option. Similarly, I'd imagine that for the most part the prices for the Louisa Adams and Jackson Liberty coins (issued at $600+ each) will still go for more than the Abigail Adams coins (issued at around $400 each) (with some exceptions of course), until spot prices exceed the issue prices, if ever.

So, I imagine that each of the already issued First Spouse coins will trade near the greater of their original issue price or their melt value. Perhaps we'll see a few of them gain higher premiums before the series is completed in 2016 or so as I expect to see some low mintages for many of these... but the mintages also depend highly on the spot price vs. the mint price. When the mint price is 50% greater than spot as with the most recent issues, the mintage/sales are relatively low. But when gold spikes and that premium is significantly reduced, the sales will take off because of bullion investors. This was seen with the sales/mintage of the Madison coin as the sales number jumped quite a bit when gold was pushing $1000/oz. and the coins were priced at just over $500/ea. and were one of the lowest cost gold coins available from the Mint at the time.

Walmann

"Keeping all mine raw too, just don't think it's worth the grading fees to be told whether it's a 69 or 70. Plus, seems like the value would be less than a raw coin once it's in a 69 holder. The problem with the mint packaging is that it's so bulky compared to the size of the coin. I'm thinking ahead and trying to figure out how I'm going to store/display the full set of 80+ of these (proof and uncs)."

I've kept my raw and using an airtite album, displays eight per page, just the correct number, the only issue is having to purchase new airtites for this years issues as the mint's airtites are not the right size for the album.