If you are a long term collector, there is nothing wrong with a decline in prices for the coins you

TahoeDale

Huh?

All this bearish talk, and like we aren't going to buy coins anymore?

NOT !! While I sell coins that are only part of a set( duplicates), or sometimes an entire collection ( Lib nickels 3 years ago, Barber quarters 2 years ago, and now Barber halves), I am always on the lookout for quality early gold, Early dollars, and of course CBH's in Gem.

Most of us are truly addicted, and since there is no Coins Anonymous group to see on Sunday afternoons, we continue to search, and come up with plausible reasons to buy more beautiful coins.

And if we hold them for a reasonably long time, we come out pretty good.

If the prices are lower, in the next year or 2, it is just a buying opportunity.

JRocco

Agree 100% TD
This is still a fun hobby for me and I
look forward to a few coins coming back down to earth.

RYK

I agree. There are some coins that I could have comfortably afforded in 1999 or 2000 that were squeezed up and out of my price range over the last several years. If I could buy them at even 2003 or 2004 levels, I would be very happy. However, I do not think that these coins will fall that far.

Bcsican

EVERYTHING GOES IN CYCLES ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

roadrunner

Ditto. I look back to spring 1990 as an example where I was in a hurry to unload several key date seated rarities that I had owned for a number of years, to take advantage of the then high prices, and the inevitable spiral down to come. What did I learn? Well, most of those coins were in fact as rare and underrated as I had thought and they generally lost little value over the next few years. Today, several of those coins are worth 3X to 10X what I sold them for in the "peak" of 1990. And to add insult, they are just an unobtainable today and obviously far more recognized. And the generic stuff that I ended up buying in place of those continued to spiral down. A great lesson learned though at considerable expense. If you know what you got, and you know it's potential, be happy to sit and bide your time.

roadrunner

robkool

I have NO problem at all...

Coxe

I agree with a however though. The best coins are like hens teeth to locate on the market when it is depressed. Low prices often lead to low availability. That said, I did quite well in the mid 1990s buying semi-key Morgan DMPLs at attractive prices and could often select PQ ones without any significant premiums. There might be firesales on keys and rarities at the beginning of a collapse, because some people do want to be out of those coins and put the (reduced) capital where it will work for them for a while. For the most part, though, the great stuff will remain out of sight in strong hands waiting for strong prices to return. This time? Dunno how many recently comfortable rich will need more discretionary money fast.

Lakesammman

If your sitting on cash or are o/w liquid, agree 100%.

rld14

I'm kind of stoked for the bubble to burst a bit, I'm back to collecting after taking a nearly 20 year break and am eager to buy stuff, but if the prices go down then I can buy MORE! Muahahahaha!

TahoeDale

I don't entirely agree, that there won't be great coins at reasonable prices during a downturn.

In 1994, I bought a 93-S Morgan in 64, for under posted guides. Also, a 1895 proof morgan, 1916 Standing lig quarter in 66, and The Proof Shield in 69. All prices had been down for 3 to 5 years, but nice coins still came out of hiding.

Both 1885 lib nickels in MS 67 were bought and sold in 1995 to 1997, til they ended up in long time collections.

While boom times may bring out more coins, some of the best collections in the world were sold in 1996 and 1997(Eliasberg), Price in 1997, Pryor in 1996, Pittman in 1997 and 98. AND the US bull market in coins didn't begin til after 2000.

Coxe

In my opinion, the 1997 Eliasberg sale is where this market started to grow.

Yes, some rarities will emerge, even in the absence of the likes of Eliasberg estate liquidations. But some of the rarest won't be seen at all and the frequency of truly great coins gitting the market won't be as high. I think we actually agree on it all, but can nitpick the details.

DRUNNER

Dale . .

Superb insight . . .

It will be cyclical, we'll all learn quite a bit about rarity and saleability, but in the end, the collector (with a keen eye) will rule.

Drunner

roadrunner

In my opinion, the 1997 Eliasberg sale is where this market started to grow.

I would agree. Even though price sheets may have shown a stagnant market up until 1999-2001, the Eliasberg coins were already probably up at least 10-20% by that time. You could call the 1997-2001 as sort of a stealth bull beginning. The Eliasberg sale in itself generated enough electricity by itself to spark the market out of its blues. The Norweb sales in 1987-1988 also did a similar thing to spark off the mania that lasted until 1990.

roadrunner

BillyKingsley

I would like to see this be very, very true. While it would be bad, I suppose, for the current owners, I don't have much other chance being on a very limited income. Prices need to plummet for me to get super high quality stuff, and I don't see that happening. Luckily, I prefer circulated anyway. (though I am still always on the lookout for an upgrade!)

ChrisRx

Well I agree thats why I am not worried if prices fall I just buy more

Unknown

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Boom

Excellent post TD!

PerryHall

For the long term collector, a decline in prices presents itself as a buying opportunity. I wouldn't have any complaints if my future coin purchases were less expensive. After all, I would be able to buy more coins.

Coxe

Another angle to consider is that as long as you don't need to take cash out, you can collect just fine. Sell at losses and buy other coins also at lower prices, effecting in-kind trades "essentially" that probably wouldn't changed much over the market change but realize a temporary tax advantage. If these are actual in-kind trades, of course the tax issue is moot anyway. It's like selling a house and buying another in a down market. Might get just as much house in that other (hopefully better) location as you would have in the up market but perhaps with a lower assessment and thus property tax, depending on the state and county.

jhdfla

As was said, as long as you are liquid enough there is no problem with a correction, the problem occurs when you are forced to liquidate something that has come down in price to acquire something else that has experienced a price decline as well. No one really knows for sure what will happen at FUN, but I have to say that most of the items in the Heritage sale that I have on my watch list are receiving pretty strong bids already. And there are a number of them with no reserves, and I'm not talking Lemus coins either.

john

Coxe

I think you meant "has NOT experienced a price decline as well" and are right on there.

I was thinking that, depending on Heritage's cash reserves and willingness, it might have been a brilliant move to negotiate consignments with guaranteed payment levels (either ponying up the differences or outright buying certain coins) in order to inject intertia into the FUN sales and the market as it serves their interests medium-term anyway. Not alleging anything nor saying it is terribly wrong, just speculating on a hypothetical situtation. That could account for dropping or eliminating reserves, by removing the attendant risks for the consignor. With the right choices for whom to do that with and what coins, they could negotiate the other side of the terms (rates) to the company's advantage. Just an actuarial risk exercise that I suppose insurance companies do every day.

jhdfla

<< <i>I think you meant "has NOT experienced a price decline as well" and are right on there.

I was thinking that, depending on Heritage's cash reserves and willingness, it might have been a brilliant move to negotiate consignments with guaranteed payment levels (either ponying up the differences or outright buying certain coins) in order to inject intertia into the FUN sales and the market as it serves their interests medium-term anyway. Not alleging anything nor saying it is terribly wrong, just speculating on a hypothetical situtation. That could account for dropping or eliminating reserves, by removing the attendant risks for the consignor. With the right choices for whom to do that with and what coins, they could negotiate the other side of the terms (rates) to the company's advantage. Just an actuarial risk exercise that I suppose insurance companies do every day. >>



There has to be something along the lines you suggest, I can't imagine putting that many neat pieces up for auction without something to CYA...

john

BAJJERFAN

If something nice comes along would you buy it now or wait?

Baley

I agree with you TD.

by the same token, I hope to be shopping for a bigger southern California house in the next few years.

do you think I'm happy or sad about the current real estate market?

Happy~! even though my current house is set back a few years in "value", since I'm a young guy and my big buys are ahead of me,

I say "drop baby drop!"

(same with 1700's dated US coins, please go down, way down as the market (over) corrects!

Elcontador

I'm with Coxe on this. I've seen more coins available which interest me in boom times than now. The last several Long Beach Shows, I was done seeing what I thought was worth seeing in 3 1/2 hours. I'm talking about walking the floor twice, looking at potential purchases, having an extra set of eyes look at them, meet & greet people I know, etc.

Might add that the material I was interested in was still priced imo at stupid levels, and was growing moss on its north side or the sellers had bought the coins wrong and were looking for a bigger fool to pay ridiculous prices for them.

When the market turns south, I see very few coins that are worth a second look. Now if people have to sell because they're strapped for cash, in a panic mode, etc., THEN I might see some material worth buying, but I don't think that happened since the early 90s.

However, if I am adversely affected in the current recession, I am not buying coins. My portfolio has taken a hit, and I am thinking twice where my money is going before making a major purchase at present.