Anyone hoarding silver...
Peaceman
Posts: 5,098
I think a mild deflation (mostly people waiting for lower prices before they buy something) is happening now. Heck, every time I see oil go down $ 3 - $ 4 a barrel, I wait as long as I can to go fill up the car because I know prices will fall .10 - .15 at the pump. After this period, with all of the $ that the government is pumping into the system, I think we'll finally level off and then see inflation (which is normal at 1.5 - 2.5%/yr.) at a higher % seen in the past due to the excess money supply. With inflation comes the rise in commodities. Yes, this deflationary time, if it lasts for a long time, could lead into "disinflation" which be a very sharp downward trend and bad for commodities. Then the subsequent bounce would be that much harder. But economist think mid to late 2009 we will "level off" or begin the rebuilding process. I think this may be true IF morgage rates continue to fall and people are able to stay in their homes and all of the things that the fed has done finally begin to work.
So I'm now buying silver. I chose silver because I think it is the metal of choice for the "everyday" person (low cost). Although the fed can raise rates to combat inflation (yes, I'm very forward looking), I think even before they begin that process, they will need to step back and review the information that comes in (economic data). In my opinion, I think we're going to see it snap back hard (within 1-2 months) "eventually". People will look at that as good (it's finally over) and bad (inflation). Once you go and re-fi your house at $ 4%, the botom is in... One day the CPI will come out and we'll see a 5-6% bump in one month. The stock market will celebrate and then the new problem that will be looked at will be inflation and controlling it. Once two-three months go by and the fed sits on it's < 1% rate, they will finally move but it may be too late and inflation will get out of control leading to higher prices in commodities.
So that's my thinking... yes, I could buy silver 4-7 months out from now, but I'm not trying to time the market.... nor guess what people think. Remember, the "normal" thinking out on wallstreet is upside down. We may even see gold/silver go UP when the stock market goes down further in the next few months. In actuality, it should go DOWN due to deflation. The reasoning behind buying now is that investors feel comfortable putting their $ into commodities when the market goes down... AND oil is $ 37/barrel. So I think there is upside room there too for oil to go back to $50.
Silver closed at $ 10.82 Friday. I think it goes up slightly as the stock market goes down in the next few months as investors put their $ to "work" in gold/silve waiting to see what happens to the economy. When we finally come out of it, inflation will take hold unexpectedly, the fed will be behind the ball to correct it and commodities will drive up much higher.... Right now I'm buying only 100 oz Engelhards (usually sold at spot + $4.00) with an avg price of $ 1212.
So I'm now buying silver. I chose silver because I think it is the metal of choice for the "everyday" person (low cost). Although the fed can raise rates to combat inflation (yes, I'm very forward looking), I think even before they begin that process, they will need to step back and review the information that comes in (economic data). In my opinion, I think we're going to see it snap back hard (within 1-2 months) "eventually". People will look at that as good (it's finally over) and bad (inflation). Once you go and re-fi your house at $ 4%, the botom is in... One day the CPI will come out and we'll see a 5-6% bump in one month. The stock market will celebrate and then the new problem that will be looked at will be inflation and controlling it. Once two-three months go by and the fed sits on it's < 1% rate, they will finally move but it may be too late and inflation will get out of control leading to higher prices in commodities.
So that's my thinking... yes, I could buy silver 4-7 months out from now, but I'm not trying to time the market.... nor guess what people think. Remember, the "normal" thinking out on wallstreet is upside down. We may even see gold/silver go UP when the stock market goes down further in the next few months. In actuality, it should go DOWN due to deflation. The reasoning behind buying now is that investors feel comfortable putting their $ into commodities when the market goes down... AND oil is $ 37/barrel. So I think there is upside room there too for oil to go back to $50.
Silver closed at $ 10.82 Friday. I think it goes up slightly as the stock market goes down in the next few months as investors put their $ to "work" in gold/silve waiting to see what happens to the economy. When we finally come out of it, inflation will take hold unexpectedly, the fed will be behind the ball to correct it and commodities will drive up much higher.... Right now I'm buying only 100 oz Engelhards (usually sold at spot + $4.00) with an avg price of $ 1212.
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Comments
I would opt for silver over gold right now due to the ratio favoring silver. 1 ounce of Gold buys you 80 ounces of silver.
Who would buy gold, when silver is so depressed compared to Gold?
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>I'd buy 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver. In the 30's silver didn't go up in value but gold did, of course silver coins were being minted by every nation so it could be different this time around. JMO >>
Gold prices in the 30's aren't really comparable to modern times since it was illegal to actually own gold back then.
Personally, I'm about half and half. I think you'll do well with either though. I think silver provides more leverage because I think the price move from $10 to $20 in silver (doubling) will come a lot faster than a price doubling in gold.
Just like during the real estate bubble - all forms of real estate went nuts - but it seemed to start with single family residential. Any huge moves in pricey gold will spill over into relatively cheap silver, which is gold's little cousin.
Most people believe that gold shot up in 79 because of silver but the truth is the middle east crisis caused gold to rise on the Iran goverment take over which all the rich people in the region were buying it in case they had to leave quickly. In civil unrest the last thing I'd want to pack in a ton of silver, I'd save my strength for taking food and supplies I'd need. JMO. I'm sure the jew in WWII were glad they had diamonds and demand never went away being able to take your wealth away with you shouldn't be discounted.
<< <i>Silver, I believe is one of the best current investments available.
I would opt for silver over gold right now due to the ratio favoring silver. 1 ounce of Gold buys you 80 ounces of silver.
Who would buy gold, when silver is so depressed compared to Gold? >>
It seems kind of odd to me that there is 2-3 times more Gold available than Silver yet Gold sells for roughly 80 times more than Silver.
What am I missing here? Silver has many uses from electronics to medical and has also been used as a monetary metal like Gold for thousands of years where the historic ratio was 17-20 times. Wasn't there even talk of using Silver as a catalyst instead of Platinum?
<< <i>Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>
Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none.
<< <i>
<< <i>Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>
Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none. >>
Oh yes they can and the new method rather it's gold, silver. oil, or food is futures..........the paper world is great all the way until the public realizes the "King has no clothes". The Central Banks have them on their books but maybe double booked and leased but the future makerts can equalize that, just think Buffet had more physical silver than the Hunt's so why didn't it skyrocket to $50 an ounce? Answer: paper goods.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>
Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none. >>
Oh yes they can and the new method rather it's gold, silver. oil, or food is futures..........the paper world is great all the way until the public realizes the "King has no clothes". The Central Banks have them on their books but maybe double booked and leased but the future makerts can equalize that, just think Buffet had more physical silver than the Hunt's so why didn't it skyrocket to $50 an ounce? Answer: paper goods. >>
Like you said it all runs smoothly until the people realize that the "King has no clothes" and there is nothing backing up the paper contracts except empty promises.
this is why silver appears to be the "better buy."
but there might be fundamental reasons for the big ratio today. Im open to hearing ideas that would justify the current 77-to-1 ratio because I have no way to explain it. It mystifies me.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
I can say when gold and silver was flat for a couple of decades at there lows gold was just under $260 and silver just under $4 so in this case it was 85:1 ratio. I do own silver so I really don't have an issue with it. I just think it's time will come as industrial need starts to deplete it again which could be a decade. If you step back from all the charts and stats that have no meaning because of bias and look at panics throuhout the world gold was the major player and the worlds population will tend to gravitate to it. The people with real wealth will buy it vs silver due to it's historic component as well as easy storage and bug out features.
I think more Americans should consider this is more than just what the U.S. does or thinks the rest of the world has more experiance in bad times than anyone alive today in the U.S. and a global view of what the world will do is more important than what PM's in the US will do IMO. I really feel the implosion will start outside of the US and work it's way in to us hitting the whole world at once with no "White Knight" to rescue any other nation but their own. JMO of course
<< <i>You have to think that silver is undervalued when you look at a gold to silver price ratio of 77-to-1. Historically the price ratio was 17-to-1 or 20-to1 depending on what history you want to follow.
this is why silver appears to be the "better buy."
but there might be fundamental reasons for the big ratio today. Im open to hearing ideas that would justify the current 77-to-1 ratio because I have no way to explain it. It mystifies me. >>
Basically, silver crashed in price (along with everything else, except for gold) because it is grouped in the "Industrial Metals". With the Global Economy perceived as crashing, all base metals dropped drastically in price.
Gold, on the other hand, is considered more as 'money' and more as a 'safe haven', so it dropped in price the least.
Personally, because of the many other fundamentals of silver, I believe it is the best investmant out there. The fundamentals that I beieve will take silver to higher heights the quickest are:
1. stockpiles of silver are very low
2. it is considered as 'money' in some sense right behind Gold, so it has that going for it
3. it is very cheap compared to gold (80:1 ratio) so it can double in price a lot easier than gold can double in price.
4. there is debate about how the whole gold/silver market is manipulated and the unwinding of the 'short' positions could cause the prices of both metals to jump higher.
5. there are some experts that say the US dollar is still teetering on crashing. If this happens gold and silver will 'naturally' increase in value.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
No bank will ever have a better savings plan than hoarding silver.
(If I had more time, I could write a poem in iambic pentameter about hoarding silver!)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Actually, you were starting to sound a bit like Dr. Seuss.....
Silver eggs and ham?
<< <i>
As a collector of Silver bars of all shapes and sizes I've got to say I like your bar, PM me if you want to sell it.
<< <i>Regardless of whether silver or gold is a better buy I have been buying some 90% silver because it is something that is small enough to be used in an everyday transaction if needed. It will be easier to pay somebody a bill with a couple of Kennedy half dollars rather than trying to break a $50 gold eagle or a silver loaf. I don't qualify as a wealthy investor so I look at silver from a more utilitarian standpoint, i.e. using it as money. I'm not planning on buying a whole lot of it but then it doesn't hurt to have some.
Besides, I like the clinky sound that a handful of silver coins makes
I just love the ringing sound a silver coin makes when you balance one on your finger and tap it with another one.
Now, demand has slackened. But the projects that were begun earlier have not been called off. The capital spending that anticipated higher demand is still mostly being spent in anticipation of higher demand. Indeed, I see no way that a larger population will require less petroleum-based energy. Especially if the "greens" keep standing in the way of nuclear. And standing against coal is just plain dumb. But, that's where we are.
My feeling is that the libs will keep us from doing the smart things, and as a result, the easiest (and still cheapest) fuels, i.e. petroleum-based fuels will consumed **disproportionately** faster than they should be, consequently causing earlier and earlier shortages. The oil companies aren't expanding blindly, I assure you. Everything they do is well-thought out and engineered in advance. The budget money is like the budget money in any other *market-driven* company - it gets spent when the returns seem to justify the expense.
Deflation is here now, but I wouldn't expect oil to stay at $35.00 levels long. More like $80.00 in equilibrium with the real market. We'll see what demand does - demand is getting killed pretty good at the moment, but it will recover. It always does.
I knew it would happen.
I can barely carry my safety deposit box.... lol....
myCCset
Wonder where he stores it...?
<< <i>I met a guy at a show once who said he had over 1,000,000 oz. of silver >>
I wish I had that problem
myCCset
<< <i>I met a guy at a show once who said he had over 1,000,000 oz. of silver.... he then backed up his story by asking 4 dealers at random at the show to back up his claim.... they all gave an honest answer that he did.....
Wonder where he stores it...? >>
That sounds odd to me. Now why in the world would someone who has that kind of stash.... want to publicize the fact???? ?????? ????
Saving is what I call it.
But I think that everyone should have a small stash of this stuff.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
I bought at least 200oz when the Cashback was 25 & 30% and I plan on buying some mo! Picked up 10oz of Engelhard rounds from 1984 for a sweet price, next to the ASE they are really great lookin!
Hope the cashback comes back on Ebay!
Ever Onward
Silver at time of Post: $ 10.82
Silver on 1/28/09: $ 11.95
So far so good....
<< <i>This one just came in the mail about .75 over todays spot of around $ 14.50
I thought coin collecting was a disease but PM's are far worse
myCCset
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
<< <i>These things just keep showing up at my doorstep!!!!! HELP!!!!
Silver at time of Post: $ 10.82
Silver on 1/28/09: $ 11.95
So far so good....
Silver on 5/22/09:$14.69
Silver at time of Post: $ 10.82
Silver on 1/28/09: $ 11.95
Silver on 5/22/09:$14.69
Silver on 10/3/09: $ 16.14
Yes, I just added to my stack, 103 oz !
Silver on 1/28/09: $ 11.95
Silver on 5/22/09:$14.69
Silver on 10/3/09: $ 16.14
Trend? What Trend?
I knew it would happen.