Anyone hoarding silver...

Peaceman · December 20, 2008 5:39AM

I think a mild deflation (mostly people waiting for lower prices before they buy something) is happening now. Heck, every time I see oil go down $ 3 - $ 4 a barrel, I wait as long as I can to go fill up the car because I know prices will fall .10 - .15 at the pump. After this period, with all of the $ that the government is pumping into the system, I think we'll finally level off and then see inflation (which is normal at 1.5 - 2.5%/yr.) at a higher % seen in the past due to the excess money supply. With inflation comes the rise in commodities. Yes, this deflationary time, if it lasts for a long time, could lead into "disinflation" which be a very sharp downward trend and bad for commodities. Then the subsequent bounce would be that much harder. But economist think mid to late 2009 we will "level off" or begin the rebuilding process. I think this may be true IF morgage rates continue to fall and people are able to stay in their homes and all of the things that the fed has done finally begin to work.

So I'm now buying silver. I chose silver because I think it is the metal of choice for the "everyday" person (low cost). Although the fed can raise rates to combat inflation (yes, I'm very forward looking), I think even before they begin that process, they will need to step back and review the information that comes in (economic data). In my opinion, I think we're going to see it snap back hard (within 1-2 months) "eventually". People will look at that as good (it's finally over) and bad (inflation). Once you go and re-fi your house at $ 4%, the botom is in... One day the CPI will come out and we'll see a 5-6% bump in one month. The stock market will celebrate and then the new problem that will be looked at will be inflation and controlling it. Once two-three months go by and the fed sits on it's < 1% rate, they will finally move but it may be too late and inflation will get out of control leading to higher prices in commodities.

So that's my thinking... yes, I could buy silver 4-7 months out from now, but I'm not trying to time the market.... nor guess what people think. Remember, the "normal" thinking out on wallstreet is upside down. We may even see gold/silver go UP when the stock market goes down further in the next few months. In actuality, it should go DOWN due to deflation. The reasoning behind buying now is that investors feel comfortable putting their $ into commodities when the market goes down... AND oil is $ 37/barrel. So I think there is upside room there too for oil to go back to $50.

Silver closed at $ 10.82 Friday. I think it goes up slightly as the stock market goes down in the next few months as investors put their $ to "work" in gold/silve waiting to see what happens to the economy. When we finally come out of it, inflation will take hold unexpectedly, the fed will be behind the ball to correct it and commodities will drive up much higher.... Right now I'm buying only 100 oz Engelhards (usually sold at spot + $4.00) with an avg price of $ 1212.

ttown · December 20, 2008 5:51AM

I'd buy 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver. In the 30's silver didn't go up in value but gold did, of course silver coins were being minted by every nation so it could be different this time around. JMO

DoubleEagle59 · December 20, 2008 7:11AM

Silver, I believe is one of the best current investments available.

I would opt for silver over gold right now due to the ratio favoring silver. 1 ounce of Gold buys you 80 ounces of silver.

Who would buy gold, when silver is so depressed compared to Gold?

ttown · December 20, 2008 7:25AM

Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course.

ProofCollection · December 20, 2008 9:38AM

<< I'd buy 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver. In the 30's silver didn't go up in value but gold did, of course silver coins were being minted by every nation so it could be different this time around. JMO >>

Gold prices in the 30's aren't really comparable to modern times since it was illegal to actually own gold back then.

Personally, I'm about half and half. I think you'll do well with either though. I think silver provides more leverage because I think the price move from $10 to $20 in silver (doubling) will come a lot faster than a price doubling in gold.

Just like during the real estate bubble - all forms of real estate went nuts - but it seemed to start with single family residential. Any huge moves in pricey gold will spill over into relatively cheap silver, which is gold's little cousin.

ttown · December 20, 2008 10:08AM

Quite a bit is different today. Gold was fixed at $35 an ounce but you could own 5 ounces of gold IIRC and jewelery was exempt. What do you think might happen this time around if gold coins was taken? Really pre-33 gold is less than 5% of the total gold in the US; the ETF's is the goverments means of getting almost all the gold in the world without almost no effort. Silver in a downturn really wouldn't be used much in industury and there's no demand in photos or coins any longer so demand won't be there unless it's investment. Gold is held by all goverments and it's been beaten into world populations since 500 BC. You don't change history overnight. Really you need a gobal view of PM's in a panic and I can assure you everyone but the developed nations are taking notice and buying it.

Most people believe that gold shot up in 79 because of silver but the truth is the middle east crisis caused gold to rise on the Iran goverment take over which all the rich people in the region were buying it in case they had to leave quickly. In civil unrest the last thing I'd want to pack in a ton of silver, I'd save my strength for taking food and supplies I'd need. JMO. I'm sure the jew in WWII were glad they had diamonds and demand never went away being able to take your wealth away with you shouldn't be discounted.

Norseman88 · December 20, 2008 10:51AM

<< Silver, I believe is one of the best current investments available.

I would opt for silver over gold right now due to the ratio favoring silver. 1 ounce of Gold buys you 80 ounces of silver.

Who would buy gold, when silver is so depressed compared to Gold? >>

It seems kind of odd to me that there is 2-3 times more Gold available than Silver yet Gold sells for roughly 80 times more than Silver.
What am I missing here? Silver has many uses from electronics to medical and has also been used as a monetary metal like Gold for thousands of years where the historic ratio was 17-20 times. Wasn't there even talk of using Silver as a catalyst instead of Platinum?

Norseman88 · December 20, 2008 10:54AM

<< Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>

Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none.

ttown · December 20, 2008 10:55AM

Well maybe you should buy Platinum then with that mindset. Gold is money and has always been, history does repeat itself.

ttown · December 20, 2008 10:57AM

<< 

<< Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>

Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none. >>

Oh yes they can and the new method rather it's gold, silver. oil, or food is futures..........the paper world is great all the way until the public realizes the "King has no clothes". The Central Banks have them on their books but maybe double booked and leased but the future makerts can equalize that, just think Buffet had more physical silver than the Hunt's so why didn't it skyrocket to $50 an ounce? Answer: paper goods.

Norseman88 · December 20, 2008 11:18AM

<< 

<< 

<< Me in hard times you'll find out who buys what, the central bank don't have hoards of gold for nothing and almost no silver. They would have exchanged it long ago if silver held up as well as gold since 500 BC. JMO of course. >>

Which means the central banks can manipulate Gold using their hoards of Gold but can not manipulate Silver as they have none. >>

Oh yes they can and the new method rather it's gold, silver. oil, or food is futures..........the paper world is great all the way until the public realizes the "King has no clothes". The Central Banks have them on their books but maybe double booked and leased but the future makerts can equalize that, just think Buffet had more physical silver than the Hunt's so why didn't it skyrocket to $50 an ounce? Answer: paper goods. >>

Like you said it all runs smoothly until the people realize that the "King has no clothes" and there is nothing backing up the paper contracts except empty promises.

MoneyLA · December 20, 2008 6:42PM

You have to think that silver is undervalued when you look at a gold to silver price ratio of 77-to-1. Historically the price ratio was 17-to-1 or 20-to1 depending on what history you want to follow.

this is why silver appears to be the "better buy."

but there might be fundamental reasons for the big ratio today. Im open to hearing ideas that would justify the current 77-to-1 ratio because I have no way to explain it. It mystifies me.

ttown · December 20, 2008 8:17PM

Really you could argue ratio's all day but there invalid to me. Gold and silver have been controled by the goverment since we were a nation limited gold ownership until 1974 and fixed rates on both for most of the 20th century. It like saying gold is a bad investment because you went back 50 to 100 years to calculate it and then someone saying from 1974 to 1980 it went up 2500 %. Charts can be made to fit any arguement and this isn't any different IMO. So I'm not sure history will help you here.

I can say when gold and silver was flat for a couple of decades at there lows gold was just under $260 and silver just under $4 so in this case it was 85:1 ratio. I do own silver so I really don't have an issue with it. I just think it's time will come as industrial need starts to deplete it again which could be a decade. If you step back from all the charts and stats that have no meaning because of bias and look at panics throuhout the world gold was the major player and the worlds population will tend to gravitate to it. The people with real wealth will buy it vs silver due to it's historic component as well as easy storage and bug out features.

I think more Americans should consider this is more than just what the U.S. does or thinks the rest of the world has more experiance in bad times than anyone alive today in the U.S. and a global view of what the world will do is more important than what PM's in the US will do IMO. I really feel the implosion will start outside of the US and work it's way in to us hitting the whole world at once with no "White Knight" to rescue any other nation but their own. JMO of course

DoubleEagle59 · December 21, 2008 12:13AM

<< You have to think that silver is undervalued when you look at a gold to silver price ratio of 77-to-1. Historically the price ratio was 17-to-1 or 20-to1 depending on what history you want to follow.

this is why silver appears to be the "better buy."

but there might be fundamental reasons for the big ratio today. Im open to hearing ideas that would justify the current 77-to-1 ratio because I have no way to explain it. It mystifies me. >>

Basically, silver crashed in price (along with everything else, except for gold) because it is grouped in the "Industrial Metals". With the Global Economy perceived as crashing, all base metals dropped drastically in price.

Gold, on the other hand, is considered more as 'money' and more as a 'safe haven', so it dropped in price the least.

Personally, because of the many other fundamentals of silver, I believe it is the best investmant out there. The fundamentals that I beieve will take silver to higher heights the quickest are:
1. stockpiles of silver are very low
2. it is considered as 'money' in some sense right behind Gold, so it has that going for it
3. it is very cheap compared to gold (80:1 ratio) so it can double in price a lot easier than gold can double in price.
4. there is debate about how the whole gold/silver market is manipulated and the unwinding of the 'short' positions could cause the prices of both metals to jump higher.
5. there are some experts that say the US dollar is still teetering on crashing. If this happens gold and silver will 'naturally' increase in value.

jmski52 · December 21, 2008 12:28AM

Silver should be hoarded. It should be hoarded a little at a time, or alot at a time. It should be hoarded when prices are low, and it should be hoarded when prices are high. It should be hoarded in coins, rolls, bars, ingots and rounds.

No bank will ever have a better savings plan than hoarding silver.

(If I had more time, I could write a poem in iambic pentameter about hoarding silver!)

DorkGirl · December 21, 2008 1:14AM

Actually, you were starting to sound a bit like Dr. Seuss.....

Cladiator · December 21, 2008 1:50AM

<< Actually, you were starting to sound a bit like Dr. Seuss.....

>>

Silver eggs and ham?

Barndog · December 21, 2008 1:56AM

cars · December 21, 2008 6:51AM

Peaceman · January 9, 2009 9:19AM

I have bought 4, 100oz. Engelhards now...... still more in the future.....

Norseman88 · January 9, 2009 10:03AM

<<

>>

As a collector of Silver bars of all shapes and sizes I've got to say I like your bar, PM me if you want to sell it.

agentjim007 · January 9, 2009 10:22AM

I heard from some talking head on the tube that the gov. would welcome inflation because debt can be paid off with cheaper dollars. I think inflation is somewhere in our future. I've been buying silver but not just bullion because I want to have some fun collecting. I've bought pandas, kangaroos, koalas, W mint marked ASE. I've been buying these around 20 bucks an oz. expensive now but hopefully not later.

Norseman88 · January 11, 2009 2:06PM

<< Regardless of whether silver or gold is a better buy I have been buying some 90% silver because it is something that is small enough to be used in an everyday transaction if needed. It will be easier to pay somebody a bill with a couple of Kennedy half dollars rather than trying to break a $50 gold eagle or a silver loaf. I don't qualify as a wealthy investor so I look at silver from a more utilitarian standpoint, i.e. using it as money. I'm not planning on buying a whole lot of it but then it doesn't hurt to have some.

Besides, I like the clinky sound that a handful of silver coins makes

>>

I just love the ringing sound a silver coin makes when you balance one on your finger and tap it with another one.

Peaceman · January 15, 2009 12:50PM

Here's another....

jmski52 · January 15, 2009 10:44PM

Peaceman, when oil was at $147/bbl., it was bubbled up. But, here is something to consider. I work in and around the oil industry. When oil was rising to over $80/bbl., and then to over $130/bbl., the oil companies were expanding to increase capacity and storage both. Demand was growing by leaps.

Now, demand has slackened. But the projects that were begun earlier have not been called off. The capital spending that anticipated higher demand is still mostly being spent in anticipation of higher demand. Indeed, I see no way that a larger population will require less petroleum-based energy. Especially if the "greens" keep standing in the way of nuclear. And standing against coal is just plain dumb. But, that's where we are.

My feeling is that the libs will keep us from doing the smart things, and as a result, the easiest (and still cheapest) fuels, i.e. petroleum-based fuels will consumed **disproportionately** faster than they should be, consequently causing earlier and earlier shortages. The oil companies aren't expanding blindly, I assure you. Everything they do is well-thought out and engineered in advance. The budget money is like the budget money in any other *market-driven* company - it gets spent when the returns seem to justify the expense.

Deflation is here now, but I wouldn't expect oil to stay at $35.00 levels long. More like $80.00 in equilibrium with the real market. We'll see what demand does - demand is getting killed pretty good at the moment, but it will recover. It always does.

percyb · January 16, 2009 12:51AM

I bought $5100 worth of SLV recently.

TwoSides2aCoin · January 16, 2009 4:07AM

I sometimes put coins in Whitman folders. I suppose this is a form of hoarding.

Peaceman · January 16, 2009 9:53AM

Jmski, agreed....

I can barely carry my safety deposit box.... lol....

dwssws · January 17, 2009 7:58AM

have been buying 1,5,10 100 oz. my original goal was 500 oz's have gone way past that and am still not done

Peaceman · January 17, 2009 8:22AM

I met a guy at a show once who said he had over 1,000,000 oz. of silver.... he then backed up his story by asking 4 dealers at random at the show to back up his claim.... they all gave an honest answer that he did.....

Wonder where he stores it...?

dwssws · January 17, 2009 8:37AM

<< I met a guy at a show once who said he had over 1,000,000 oz. of silver >>

I wish I had that problem

tincup · January 17, 2009 9:43AM

<< I met a guy at a show once who said he had over 1,000,000 oz. of silver.... he then backed up his story by asking 4 dealers at random at the show to back up his claim.... they all gave an honest answer that he did.....

Wonder where he stores it...? >>

That sounds odd to me. Now why in the world would someone who has that kind of stash.... want to publicize the fact???? ?????? ????

jdimmick · January 17, 2009 12:04PM

If I had a million oz(or even a 100k), I dont believe I walk around saying that either?

mrearlygold · January 17, 2009 1:21PM

Have some but I wouldn't call it hoarding.

Saving is what I call it.

But I think that everyone should have a small stash of this stuff.

vplite · January 20, 2009 11:56AM

I believe investors greatly prefer gold to silver, since significant value, say $100-200K can be stored in a safe deposit box. I don't think a SD Box with that value in silver could be carried by most investors.

Delorean · January 21, 2009 11:47AM

Meeee.
I bought at least 200oz when the Cashback was 25 & 30% and I plan on buying some mo! Picked up 10oz of Engelhard rounds from 1984 for a sweet price, next to the ASE they are really great lookin!

Hope the cashback comes back on Ebay!

coinvac41 · January 24, 2009 6:12AM

I used to work with a guy (we called him silver John) during the 1979-1980 silver boom. He would buy silver from all of workers each day at the previous days bid price, then after work trot down to the local coin shop and cash in and reinvest the profit. At the time I went to a lot of organized Treasure hunts and he told me to save all the silver dimes that I won as if times got really hard the silver dime would be the medium of exchange. The way the gov't is printing paper money today, this scenario may well come to pass. If so your stash will have to be guarded with a firearm 24/7. Heaven forbid this happens.

Peaceman · January 29, 2009 4:37AM

These things just keep showing up at my doorstep!!!!! HELP!!!!

Silver at time of Post: $ 10.82
Silver on 1/28/09: $ 11.95

So far so good....

Peaceman · February 20, 2009 9:21AM

This one just came in the mail about .75 over todays spot of around $ 14.50

dwssws · February 20, 2009 9:36AM

<< This one just came in the mail about .75 over todays spot of around $ 14.50

>>

I thought coin collecting was a disease but PM's are far worse

Konahead · February 20, 2009 1:14PM

hoard baby hoard

Peaceman · February 21, 2009 5:43AM

yea.. it's hard to stop myself... that last one I used my 8% off paypal coupon... bought it for $1600 - $100 add shipping... Last time gold was around $1000 silver was at $20... I think we see a run in silver soon to catch up to gold ratio....

Peaceman · May 22, 2009 8:58AM

Lucky guess back in December...... I dont think so. I think most of us could see a runup coming. I think it has a long run up to go as well. Going to test the highs for sure. With cashback I've managed to put together a very nice hoard at an avg. of $ 1375/per 100 oz. Silver closed at $ 14.69 today. I'm surprised 100 ozer aren't selling for $ 1700+. Last time we hit $ 14.50 you couldn't touch one in the $1600's... we'll see how the premiums go in the next few months.

OPA · May 22, 2009 9:13AM

As the price of PM rise, the premiums have and will continue to come down. That's the way it's been in the past, and I believe it will be in the future.