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Why are the proof silver pandas not very popular?
OnlyBuffalos
Posts: 817
Compared to the circulation strike silver pandas the proof silver pandas seem to be rather unpopular. (Given the relative scarcity of the proofs, should they not sell for more?)
1. Is it because the circulation strike silver pandas have no rare or even scarce dates. The total population of the silver proofs (1983 - 1996) is less than 200,000. Every year since 2003, there have been almost three times as many circulation strikes made and the smallest mintage for any year of the proof-likes is 100,000.
2. Is it because it is difficult to obtain a PCGS grade of PR69DCAM for the proofs - total of 216 for all years. There are none graded PR70DCAM.
3. Is it because the proofs are no longer being made? A new circulation strike silver panda with a new design appears every year to renew collector interest.
4. Are the proofs too expensive? A PCGS 1983 PR69DCAM sells for around $3,000+ if you can find one of the four so graded; a PCGS 1985 PR69DCAM for around $1,400 (APMEX currently has one for sale at that price) with ten graded thus. The most expensive date for a circulation strike panda in MS69 can be obtained for around $150. A 2008 MS70 for about the same amount.
5. Are the proofs too elusive? With reasonable effort, a complete set of the silver proof-like pandas in MS69 can be assembled in about a month or two on eBay. A complete silver proof collection in PR69DCAM would take considerably longer.
What do you think? Are the silver panda proofs the USA 2 cent and 3 cent equivalents of the future in terms of popularity?
1. Is it because the circulation strike silver pandas have no rare or even scarce dates. The total population of the silver proofs (1983 - 1996) is less than 200,000. Every year since 2003, there have been almost three times as many circulation strikes made and the smallest mintage for any year of the proof-likes is 100,000.
2. Is it because it is difficult to obtain a PCGS grade of PR69DCAM for the proofs - total of 216 for all years. There are none graded PR70DCAM.
3. Is it because the proofs are no longer being made? A new circulation strike silver panda with a new design appears every year to renew collector interest.
4. Are the proofs too expensive? A PCGS 1983 PR69DCAM sells for around $3,000+ if you can find one of the four so graded; a PCGS 1985 PR69DCAM for around $1,400 (APMEX currently has one for sale at that price) with ten graded thus. The most expensive date for a circulation strike panda in MS69 can be obtained for around $150. A 2008 MS70 for about the same amount.
5. Are the proofs too elusive? With reasonable effort, a complete set of the silver proof-like pandas in MS69 can be assembled in about a month or two on eBay. A complete silver proof collection in PR69DCAM would take considerably longer.
What do you think? Are the silver panda proofs the USA 2 cent and 3 cent equivalents of the future in terms of popularity?
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Comments
#2... PCGS is especially difficult on grading these coins, but why does there "have" to be x coins in z grade and x coins in y grade to make the series collectible? (my set runs from 67 to 69 and im happy)
#3... Valid point entirely. The lack of new coins MAY coincide with a lack of intense interest.
#4... This point of yours completely contradicts your original question. Think about it like this....if silver proofs WERE so "unpopular", why would the better dates be fetching such large sums of cash? The "cheapies" of the series (1989,1990,1991,1992, and 1993) all run in the $80-$120 range in the buff, slightly more in 69 trim. The keys can get VERY pricey indeed, the 1983 being the bich of the bunch.
#5... With mintages of some of the proofs in the 10k and lower arena, this series IS elusive. The 1995-W ASE had a mintage of almost 35,000 and is a $5k coin. The HIGHEST mintage of the panda silver proofs ('83-'96) is the 1987 with a whopping emmision of just 31,000 pieces and can be had for right around $200. The lowest mintage (disregarding Krause's estimate on the 1992) is the 1996 coin with just 8,000 pieces. Its a bargain currently at around $225 for a raw specimen.
My synopsis is that for a die hard panda enthusiast such as myself, collecting the silver proof run was both rewarding and challenging (not to mention quite expensive). For the "casual" silver panda collector, spending $500 on a 1995 1oz silver coin just doesnt click. However, as China continues to grow economically, and as more and more of it's citizens become wealthy, I suspect prices on these scarce coins can only go up. Even with the "limited" collector base of these coins currently, prices have risen sharply in recent years, just imagine when you get perhaps another 25,000 serious collectors competing over coins where there just arent enough to go around! So unlike the USA 2 and 3 cent pieces, silver proof pandas are actually gaining new collectors rather than watching its collector base slowly errode.
My silver proof set 1983-1996:
1. Typo on my part. Meant to write 200,000 not 220,000. Since edited.
4. The purpose of the post was to compare the popularity of the proof-likes with the proofs and to look at the possible reasons why. The point being attempted was that the popularity of a particular series is often reflected in the cost of the series' keys and semi-keys. PCGS has only graded twenty seven 1983 proof pandas in 67/68/69; thirty three 1985's in 67/68/69 and the number minted is indeed small. Suppose those were the population and mintage figures for one or two of the dates in the proof-like panda series, what would such coins cost? I believe it would be considerably more. But would there be fewer collectors of the proof-likes as a result?
From your photographs, it looks as if your silver pandas are raw. What do you keep them in to prevent accidental damage?
Silver proof panda video
<< <i>just imagine when you get perhaps another 25,000 serious collectors competing over coins where there just arent enough to go around! >>
gecko, I have to disagree. I believe that as demand increases, extremely accomplished Chinese counterfeiters will no doubt step in to oblige by increasing the supply. Perhaps others tend to agree, and that may be part of the answer to the original question.
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<< <i>just imagine when you get perhaps another 25,000 serious collectors competing over coins where there just arent enough to go around! >>
gecko, I have to disagree. I believe that as demand increases, extremely accomplished Chinese counterfeiters will no doubt step in to oblige by increasing the supply. Perhaps others tend to agree, and that may be part of the answer to the original question. >>
Fake Chinese Pandas (silver and gold) are already showing up in fake PCGS slabs. They look pretty good, are graded MS/PF 69/70 and i've seen them in person. it won't be long until they are all over the place.
1/ Where have you seen them (not ebay right?)
2/ Have you got any photos to share?
3/ What was the biggest giveaway to you that they were fake?
<< <i>Interesting.
1/ Where have you seen them (not ebay right?)
2/ Have you got any photos to share?
3/ What was the biggest giveaway to you that they were fake? >>
yes, in person
no, i don't buy fake coins
there were tables of them at a swap meet, selling less than bullion value
Of PCGS slabbed fakes? And you didnt buy a single one for $10 only?
<< <i>"there were tables of them at a swap meet, selling less than bullion value"
Of PCGS slabbed fakes? And you didnt buy a single one for $10 only? >>
many were arond $15, if i recall. why would i buy one, morbid curiousity? I don't buy fakes, as it is a waste of money
go to your local flea market if you live in/near a big US city, i'm sure you'll see some.
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<< <i>Interesting.
1/ Where have you seen them (not ebay right?)
2/ Have you got any photos to share?
3/ What was the biggest giveaway to you that they were fake? >>
yes, in person
no, i don't buy fake coins
there were tables of them at a swap meet, selling less than bullion value >>
In person where?
Have you seen Fake PCGS Pandas on ebay? If not how do you reckon I can find them locally?
<< <i>
<< <i>"there were tables of them at a swap meet, selling less than bullion value"
Of PCGS slabbed fakes? And you didnt buy a single one for $10 only? >>
many were arond $15, if i recall. why would i buy one, morbid curiousity? I don't buy fakes, as it is a waste of money
go to your local flea market if you live in/near a big US city, i'm sure you'll see some. >>
Im at local flea markets all the time in the summer here in Chicago. Maybe im just not looking hard enough, but I've never seen ANY pandas, let alone fake ones SLABBED in PCGS holders!!! That would be quite a find, and very much worthy of $15 just to have as a reference piece!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"there were tables of them at a swap meet, selling less than bullion value"
Of PCGS slabbed fakes? And you didnt buy a single one for $10 only? >>
many were arond $15, if i recall. why would i buy one, morbid curiousity? I don't buy fakes, as it is a waste of money
go to your local flea market if you live in/near a big US city, i'm sure you'll see some. >>
Im at local flea markets all the time in the summer here in Chicago. Maybe im just not looking hard enough, but I've never seen ANY pandas, let alone fake ones SLABBED in PCGS holders!!! That would be quite a find, and very much worthy of $15 just to have as a reference piece! >>
just for clarification: both the coin and the slab are both fake, made in China i presume. If i go back, i'll pick one up for you if i remember. it is way on the other side of Phoenix, and i told my wife i wouldn't go back (it was a pretty shady place). He set up his wares between the tamale vendor and a woman selling trinkets like those stupid cat clocks with the creepy moving eyes. in briefly talking to him, he mentioned that he can get a lot more if i'd like , and all sorts of different coins, US and foreign. I just muttered "i'll bet you can", and walked away. i felt like i needed a shower after seeing that mess.